Thoughts on the current Top 10 rankings

[jonson]

Re Oregon. Although I do not believe that the team is more hype than substance, I also am quite sure that this is not a championship-caliber team. Someone above mentioned the final four as a possible outcome. That seems to me a reasonable high water mark, and doing so would of course make them better than all but 3 or 4 of the teams mentioned here--also a reasonable, if by no means the only, assessment imo, as long as they stay mostly injury free. The Ducks have a fairly challenging schedule coming up shortly--two on the road (Michigan State and South Dakota State) followed by Mississippi State at home. That should give a better sense of what the team is, or isn't.

I agree that the team doesn't look like it did last winter/spring, but I don't think they did last fall either. The stats are good overall, even taking a preseason schedule into account: first in assist to turnover ratio, 5th in shooting percentage--and the latter would be much much higher if you take Boley out of the equation (all of the other starters are shooting over 50%, whereas Boley is below 40%). And, although Hebard has been ill for at least one game and looked under the weather for another, her stats are about where they were last year, except that she's even shooting a bit better (about 70%). A major key to the team's success, as several posters have mentioned, will be working Boley effectively into the mix. It's my sense that Graves is letting her (and the team) feel their way on this, and I remain optimistic, but I don't think the long leash will last past the Mississippi State game. (It was at that point last year that he benched McGwire in favor of Sabally and the team began to take off.) The other will be getting more consistent minutes from Sabally, who has taken some steps in that direction (scoring and rebounding and steals are up), but not enough.

 

[shizam]

While I view myself as fairly knowledgeable in WCBB, I do defer to many on this site for their input and knowledge to learn more. That said, I have been looking at the rankings trying to assess true talent/top teams vs. "yeah, they're pretty good" teams. I want to throw it out to the masses to hear thoughts from those that know the programs the best.
Here's my 2 cents (truest meaning in that I don't have an in-depth opinion yet until I can see most of them play a few games).
ND-They are awesome on paper but with nagging injuries, have been sluggish in their early games. I wonder if Shepard/Turner will struggle with post positioning this year like Pheesa/Gabby did with Z did last. One thing for certain-Jackie Young has stepped it up!
Curious to hear our Irish friends thoughts....
UConn-fellow posters please keep comments to the positives!
Oregon-Couple of points here before I turn it over to @nwhoopfan and other PAC-12 aficionados: Oregon has played one P5 school-Syracuse and won, at home 75-73. Nice win but still...I think this team is more hype than substance. Sabrina is still "the bomb" though (is that still a relevant catch phrase?)
Baylor-Do the Mulkey "jacket tossing" meme's ever get tiring?-HECK NO! Losing Morris as an experienced facilitator hurts a lot. She has young guards on the roster that will develop and she has post play and the Energizer bunny in Didi Richards but I still think guard play and Kalani being not in the best shape hurts them. They too have been sluggish early on.
Louisville-I actually have watched 2 of their games this year and Durr is playing pretty well, that said, #5 is about their high water mark. This years version does not have scoring besides Durr.
Miss State-First off let me state, thank goodness Saturday is fast approaching when MSU plays Texas. This first 7 games has been "Mulkey'est" with more cupcakes than
substance. Add in the fact the SEC is very weak this year, Vic needs to upgrade his OOC with more P5 schools. I know he has Ore, Tex, Wash so that's encouraging. That said, McCowan is solid (pun intended) but defense is lacking. Still, this team is probably top 5.
Maryland-like her or not, Brenda is always in the discussion. Considering the transfers she lost, to be at #7 is impressive. Her OOC is ok but considering the gravitas of her program and a pedestrian Big10, she could and should up the competition. Maybe Michigan will elevate to the next level and give her a run for the Big10 title...
Stanford-Tara is solid but has to still be considered a "bridesmaid" instead of a "bride". 26 years and counting so with the signing of Jones, doesn't she actually have to WIN a title again?-side note: maybe some left over Haley Jones frustration is appearing here...
Oregon State-The sleeper of the top 10! This team has talent and great tactician leading it. This is a top 5 team and maybe a Final Four in my view.
Texas-some great individual talent with some very suspect coaching. I like Aston but man, could she use an offensive coordinator or maybe a personnel manager to get pieces that actually play together. Talent alone does not win. This team is about at it's high water mark at 10 especially with the injury to Lashann Higgs.

I know I said top 10 but I have to include #11 Tennessee. Who can resist the opportunity to kick the rival when they're down, right?
Where to start-this team is young and they lost their point guard due to "program violations" (haven't we seen this movie before?) Again, they are undefeated, playing mid-major teams with thankfully Texas and Stanford looming on the horizon before the ETSU/Murray/Belmont's show up. Their ranking has to do more with mystique than substance. That said, the SEC is down this year and Tenn may still finish in the top 4. Good news-it is being reported Holly will get a 3 year extension to go through 2022 making BYers happy and VolNation apoplectic -the WIN/WIN fulcrum as they say

Please let me know your thoughts!

You are very accurate about Lville. Nothing to see yet after Durr. No consistent scorers to fear. Carter can hit open looks but no one besides Durr can create or score on contested shots.. Jaz Jones seems content to go with the flow and not create her own opportunities.

 

[shizam]

Stanford fan checking in here. Agree with you on Boley - I actually think she's somehow disrupted Oregon's really nice dynamic, and I think she's a little too selfish and taking too many shots. It should be the Ionescu and Hebard show until someone else proves they should be taking the most attempts on the team, but now it's not really clear whose show it is, and I think that also explains part of why Hebard seems off - less of the one-two punch feeds they had honed to perfection last season. McGwire was a very solid high post but wasn't taking shots away from Hebard.



I was a bit of a skeptic with Slocum at OSU because OSU has been a score-by-committee-and-hot-hand team at the perimeter for the past five seasons, and I wondered whether she'd be too selfish and upset their really nice flow and chemistry. But so far, it seems to be working well. And I think Pivec is best positioned as a 2. Inside, well, that's another story, but not sure what to do about it given that they lost Goluch. Keep developing them and hope for the best.



Finally, Stanford is mostly just dealing with a lot of injuries - our starting PG, Marta Sniezek, has been out all season so far, Lexie is out for a while with a stress reaction, and Anna Wilson took a terrible fall and hit her head on a chair, so we're still waiting to see what the long term repercussions of that will be, if any.

All that said, Lexie's twin, Lacie, has stepped in pretty admirably; six games into her frosh season, she just matched Candice Wiggins ten-year-old single-game tally of 7 steals. I'm so, so impressed with the Hulls - for 6'1" and 6'0", they move like people playing at 1.5x while the rest of the floor is at 1x. I think Elite Eight is probably the median outcome for this team, barring a favorable regional final opponent (if ND is y'all's kryptonite, we are theirs). Given our next two recruiting classes, I'm excited to see who steps up this year, but happy to be patient for greener pastures ahead.

Sniezek is not very good. I like Kiana Wms a ton more. Losing Sniezek is a good thing . Gets Williams more minutes. Sniezek can't stay with good guards. She played Asia Durr awful in the tournament. Looked lost.

 

[shizam]

BBallnut90, nice analysis. I'm pretty much in agreement with everything you have stated. I really believe by December 24 AP Poll, much of the rankings will be clearer, given all the great OOC games in December. With regard to Oregon State, I do agree with you. I will say though that I believe Oregon State (on whole, not by position) has as much talent as any team in the country. If you include the bench players, I believe OSU has the best set of sharp shooting guards/wings in the country (very deep), but is deficient at the 5 (for now). That is why OSU is "scary". OSU got badly outrebounded by ND, and, ultimately, couldn't produce enough inside scoring. Fortunately Rueck got reinforcement from the ND game on what needs to be dramatically improved by Tournament time. Question is will Rueck have enough time to develop/improve post play to a point it isn't a glaring deficiency. Time will tell. I still need to see MSU & Stanford play some top 10 teams to offer an informed opinion. I've seen UO play multiple times, and I agree with nwhoopfan that Boley hasn't blended well yet (that could obviously change). Looking forward to a bunch of great OOC games this Sunday. Thanks again for your views.

Boley doesn't look in the best of shape. I know she is thick but she still looks a bit slower than she should

 

[MilfordHusky]

Sniezek is not very good. I like Kiana Wms a ton more. Losing Sniezek is a good thing . Gets Williams more minutes. Sniezek can't stay with good guards. She played Asia Durr awful in the tournament. Looked lost.

Sniezek is a local kid (D.C.). I had high expectations of her, but she looks average at Stanford. Williams has speed, at least. I liked her in the Jordan Brand game.

 

[shizam]

Sniezek is a local kid (D.C.). I had high expectations of her, but she looks average at Stanford. Williams has speed, at least. I liked her in the Jordan Brand game.

Williams can score and shoot also. She has a chance to be very good

 

[TheFarmFan]

Sniezek is not very good. I like Kiana Wms a ton more. Losing Sniezek is a good thing . Gets Williams more minutes. Sniezek can't stay with good guards. She played Asia Durr awful in the tournament. Looked lost.

Sniezek and Williams are not really substitutes - Williams' natural position is as a 2, not a 1, and she herself has said as much. Sniezek's more probable competition is actually Jenna Brown, who's also a pure PG. Sure, Williams can run the point (and pretty well), but her preference is the 2. To illustrate, note the stats: last year with both playing roughly equal minutes, Williams had 67 assists to Sniezek's 150. I also think Sniezek, thus far, is the slightly better defender - she had 38 steals to Williams' 30, and 115 defensive rebounds to Williams' 54. And I think she's a little more physical. And Sniezek was Pac-12 All-Defensive Honorable Mention. Defense is not Sniezek's problem.

The major issue with Sniezek isn't her defense - it's her shooting. She has an almost allergic reaction to taking jump shots, which means defenders can sag off her and then they're basically defending 4 with 5 unless she can find her way into the lane and go for shots off the glass. Her inability to develop an outside shot has been the biggest flaw and has really hurt us at times. I'm genuinely unsure what happens when she returns from injury in terms of who starts at the 1, because we have quite a lot of solid options for 2 and 3 (including both Hulls, Dijonai Carrington, Anna Wilson, and Brown). At this point, there's only about 25-30 games to go until Sniezek graduates, so it's not an existential problem, but we Cardinal fans have been speculating about what happens when she returns, because Williams is an overall stronger asset on court, even if she'd prefer to be at the 2, and she's been pretty effective running the point.

 

[Jmsdawg]

While I view myself as fairly knowledgeable in WCBB, I do defer to many on this site for their input and knowledge to learn more. That said, I have been looking at the rankings trying to assess true talent/top teams vs. "yeah, they're pretty good" teams. I want to throw it out to the masses to hear thoughts from those that know the programs the best.
Here's my 2 cents (truest meaning in that I don't have an in-depth opinion yet until I can see most of them play a few games).
ND-They are awesome on paper but with nagging injuries, have been sluggish in their early games. I wonder if Shepard/Turner will struggle with post positioning this year like Pheesa/Gabby did with Z did last. One thing for certain-Jackie Young has stepped it up!
Curious to hear our Irish friends thoughts....
UConn-fellow posters please keep comments to the positives!
Oregon-Couple of points here before I turn it over to @nwhoopfan and other PAC-12 aficionados: Oregon has played one P5 school-Syracuse and won, at home 75-73. Nice win but still...I think this team is more hype than substance. Sabrina is still "the bomb" though (is that still a relevant catch phrase?)
Baylor-Do the Mulkey "jacket tossing" meme's ever get tiring?-HECK NO! Losing Morris as an experienced facilitator hurts a lot. She has young guards on the roster that will develop and she has post play and the Energizer bunny in Didi Richards but I still think guard play and Kalani being not in the best shape hurts them. They too have been sluggish early on.
Louisville-I actually have watched 2 of their games this year and Durr is playing pretty well, that said, #5 is about their high water mark. This years version does not have scoring besides Durr.
Miss State-First off let me state, thank goodness Saturday is fast approaching when MSU plays Texas. This first 7 games has been "Mulkey'est" with more cupcakes than
substance. Add in the fact the SEC is very weak this year, Vic needs to upgrade his OOC with more P5 schools. I know he has Ore, Tex, Wash so that's encouraging. That said, McCowan is solid (pun intended) but defense is lacking. Still, this team is probably top 5.
Maryland-like her or not, Brenda is always in the discussion. Considering the transfers she lost, to be at #7 is impressive. Her OOC is ok but considering the gravitas of her program and a pedestrian Big10, she could and should up the competition. Maybe Michigan will elevate to the next level and give her a run for the Big10 title...
Stanford-Tara is solid but has to still be considered a "bridesmaid" instead of a "bride". 26 years and counting so with the signing of Jones, doesn't she actually have to WIN a title again?-side note: maybe some left over Haley Jones frustration is appearing here...
Oregon State-The sleeper of the top 10! This team has talent and great tactician leading it. This is a top 5 team and maybe a Final Four in my view.
Texas-some great individual talent with some very suspect coaching. I like Aston but man, could she use an offensive coordinator or maybe a personnel manager to get pieces that actually play together. Talent alone does not win. This team is about at it's high water mark at 10 especially with the injury to Lashann Higgs.

I know I said top 10 but I have to include #11 Tennessee. Who can resist the opportunity to kick the rival when they're down, right?
Where to start-this team is young and they lost their point guard due to "program violations" (haven't we seen this movie before?) Again, they are undefeated, playing mid-major teams with thankfully Texas and Stanford looming on the horizon before the ETSU/Murray/Belmont's show up. Their ranking has to do more with mystique than substance. That said, the SEC is down this year and Tenn may still finish in the top 4. Good news-it is being reported Holly will get a 3 year extension to go through 2022 making BYers happy and VolNation apoplectic -the WIN/WIN fulcrum as they say

Please let me know your thoughts!

Obvious you have not watched any MSST games this year. You analyst of defense is lacking is WRONG. McCowan is a block machine and the overall team defense is as good as I have ever seen them play. Vic not satisfied unless he holds the opponent scoreless and he will always think improvement is necessary. Play so far has been great but opposition less than challenging. My concern is how does MSST react to adverse situations, I.e. can they preform under pressure.

 

[DefenseBB]

Obvious you have not watched any MSST games this year. You analyst of defense is lacking is WRONG. McCowan is a block machine and the overall team defense is as good as I have ever seen them play. Vic not satisfied unless he holds the opponent scoreless and he will always think improvement is necessary. Play so far has been great but opposition less than challenging. My concern is how does MSST react to adverse situations, I.e. can they preform under pressure.

Thank you for the feedback, so here's my question-I know the defense from 2 years ago was awesome and last year's was pretty good, so if what you say is true that this year's defense (albeit against very poor competition thus far) is really good, why is MSU behind Baylor and Louisville or even Oregon in the polls? Seems to me both the writers and the coaches are seeing "flaws" relative to these teams and we know those teams have flaws. I am not being snarky or trite, as I am curious to hear a view of someone who has seen them. I guess we could wait until tomorrow but...

 

[LoTrader]

I think the polls are just best guesses at this point. December 24 polls, for me, will be the 1st meaningful polls.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Thank you for the feedback, so here's my question-I know the defense from 2 years ago was awesome and last year's was pretty good, so if what you say is true that this year's defense (albeit against very poor competition thus far) is really good, why is MSU behind Baylor and Louisville or even Oregon in the polls? Seems to me both the writers and the coaches are seeing "flaws" relative to these teams and we know those teams have flaws. I am not being snarky or trite, as I am curious to hear a view of someone who has seen them. I guess we could wait until tomorrow but...

DefenseBB, what I am judging is the performance I see on the court. This team is FAST and QUICK, they are ball hawking all the time because they realize even if their player gets by them Tee, Jessica, and/or Anreil are waiting to pick that player up. I see this team as more aggressive than any previous MSST team both on offense and defense. As for why they are number 6 in the polls, they have not played any quality teams yet. Until they win against Texas or Oregon I would not rank them top five. My top seven, as of today are ND, UCONN, Louisville, Maryland, Oregon, MSST and Baylor in that order. However, I full expect MSST to beat both Texas and Oregon and move up to the top 3.

 

[IWearShoes]

Thank you for the feedback, so here's my question-I know the defense from 2 years ago was awesome and last year's was pretty good, so if what you say is true that this year's defense (albeit against very poor competition thus far) is really good, why is MSU behind Baylor and Louisville or even Oregon in the polls? Seems to me both the writers and the coaches are seeing "flaws" relative to these teams and we know those teams have flaws. I am not being snarky or trite, as I am curious to hear a view of someone who has seen them. I guess we could wait until tomorrow but...

I'm going to disagree with my MSU cohort a bit. This MSU team is solid on D and will likely get better as all teams do under Vic because he focuses on it. They are more athletic than the 16-17 team that beat UConn, but probably not as committed to D as that team with Dillingham and Okorie and others who were limited offensively, but really brought it on D. I may change my mind after December, we shall see. They certainly have the potential to be elite defensively.

What this MSU team likely is, that's not yet recognized nationally, is elite offensively. They appear to be even better than last year's team, which was clearly the best in school history. December will begin to tell that tale, so, again, we shall see.

 

[Dillon77]

You are very accurate about Lville. Nothing to see yet after Durr. No consistent scorers to fear. Carter can hit open looks but no one besides Durr can create or score on contested shots.. Jaz Jones seems content to go with the flow and not create her own opportunities.

In looking at the cumulative stats so far, there is a full 10-pt difference in scoring average between Durr (21.7) and 2nd leading scorer on the team, Sam Fuehring (11.7). BTW, those are the only two in double figures.

A few of us wondered who would fill the void filled by the graduation by Myisha Hines-Allen. Sam F. and, to some degree, Kylee Shook (8.4) have upped their minutes and game. However, as Shizam points out, none of these players creates like Durr (or Hines-Allen).
2018-2019 Women's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - University of Louisville Athletics

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BTW, if this player had stayed at Louisville, she would've graduated with Hines-Allen last year (and in fact she might've transferred because there were not enough balls on the court), but former Louisville guard Mariya Moore and her sister, Minyon, are two of the top three scorers for USC's (that is, the Trojans of Sourthern Cal) team so far.

 

[MSUFan2003]

Shoes, agree with your post but I will go further out on the limb, this team is elite and may very well be the best Vic has ever had at MSU!

I think he has more to work with, but no clear alpha has emerged that can take over when they are doing poorly. Vivians was that person that would single handedly take over the team and dig them out of a hole many times. She was the clutch player you go to when the game is on the line too. There's been no need for anyone to take on that role yet, but that's a piece that's missing. I would also say lack of depth at PG is the other weakness I'm seeing, which is causing too many turnovers.

Otherwise, the McCowan Howard duo provides a new look I've liked so far. Howard and Bibby will be the X factors in all of this and will be called on to score when a team neutralizes McCowan.

 

[bbballfan23]

I think there is a fairly large drop from ND/UConn to the rest of the field (as of now). It’s a long season & a lot can change from a chemistry & injury standpoint. I just hope they end up on opposite sides of the bracket come March.

Louisville is a 1-woman band. Oregon I think is that 3rd team in the mix but haven’t seen them enough (W. Coast time zone hurts my ability to stay up). MS St. lost so much and haven’t played anyone so hard to evaluate. Baylor doesn’t have great guard play and Brown has been a major disappointment. Oregon St. is a sleeper to make the FF.

 

[Jmsdawg]

I think he has more to work with, but no clear alpha has emerged that can take over when they are doing poorly. Vivians was that person that would single handedly take over the team and dig them out of a hole many times. She was the clutch player you go to when the game is on the line too. There's been no need for anyone to take on that role yet, but that's a piece that's missing. I would also say lack of depth at PG is the other weakness I'm seeing, which is causing too many turnovers.

Otherwise, the McCowan Howard duo provides a new look I've liked so far. Howard and Bibby will be the X factors in all of this and will be called on to score when a team neutralizes McCowan.

Agree 100%, who will be the go to player for this team when going get tough? My guess is Howard will be closest we get to that player. Hopefully we won’t need her too often. Certainly, we will miss Vivian’s, she was that player for us last year.