This is a hard season to predict on many levels: the unknown factor of Diaco year 2, coaching staff and quality of opponents.
Here is how I look at it: phase 1: Villanova and Army - When you are a TOP FCS team as Villanova, the starting lineups match up well with TOP 40 - 122 teams. It's the depth that the FBS teams have that make the difference. I think our D line will do well but their quarterback is an elite runner and if this defense is not disciplined, he can gash us. Our O line will hopefully make a difference and BS doesn't have nerves throughout the game.
Army - it comes down to Defending. We did not do that at Yankee Stadium but we should be able to beat them.
Phase 2- Missouri, Navy, BYU, UCF - we are the underdogs in each game- win at Missouri and the country will be watch us. Best publicity opp this year. Navy is good, BYU is good and UCF will be better than last year and now that we have annoyed them with the rivalry, they won't overlook us.
Phase 3 : 7 conference games - Other than Cinnci, no one will be the caliber of phase 2, so the experience of going at those teams will help us. If we have a relatively injury free season on the O-Line and QB, we can beat USF, Tulane and ECU. ECU built up to last year with the QB and receivers but they are gone and have just lost their starting QB for the year.
So , to me, it is 4 wins at least, 5 on par and 6 with an upset somewhere along the road and a feeling within the fanbase that we are back on track.