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Thoughts and numbers

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I didn't like Edsall's style of football at all. Did not like it. There are many ways to win - and the winning part of it - I liked - I'd just prefer a different style of game.

So what's happened? in just under two years? 22 months?

Edsall left, and we've transitioned to a completely different style of play, in defense and offense and special teams.

Looking at some numbers. The defense (aside from the most recent effort) has shown significant improvement over where we were at any point in the Edsall years - before the 40 point debacle to Syracuse - which still shocks me - we were holding teams to just over 16 points a game through 2012, improved by more than a TD, from about 22 points a game in 2011. With the Cuse game included, we are currently holding teams to 19pts a game allowed - which equals our best performances in the Edsall era - division 1-A years. (this does not account for opponent scores of turnovers, those points are included in the over points allowed) . Even with that, we are still at least equal our best opponents scoring we've been as a division 1-A program in 12 years. We'll see how the rest of the season turns out on D - was the cuse game an aberration? Or a trend? We'll see.

What I do know, looking at numbers, is that our D is as least as good, and a good argument to be made better, than it was before, and it's more exciting to watch, and it's completely different.

As for offense? as with D, we've compeltely changed the offense as well, and the initial publicity about what we were supposed to be on O, was everything I hoped to see on offense, but the reality on teh field is that we are worse than ever. We are scoring 17 points a game - that's almost 50% less than than the 31 pts a game we were getting in 2009. There are two coaching staffs that share the blame here, but the current one, has only made the decreasing scoring trend worse, and fixed nothing there.

I look at offensive possessions, drive charts...I looked at 2012 so far yesterday - as long as I did my accounting correctly, we've had a total of 108 offensive possesions/drives so far in 2012, and we've averaged 24 yards of field position on those drives. 24 yards per offensive possesion average, on 13.5 possessions average a game.

THe highest probability of scoring points, as we all know, occurs in the red zone. For us to have a decent chance to reach the red zone, based on average stats through 2012, our average starting field position needs to be mid-field on offense. If we get the ball deep in our own territory, we essentially have very, very little chance of scoring points.

So - I went to look at the same thing for 2010 today.

2010, Interesting results.

After compiling all the drives off the drive charts in teh box scores...(not including fiesta) of the 12 regular season games....turns out that we averaged 13 possessions of the ball on per game, and average yardage per possession? 23 yards.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised, to have found that - as we won games in 2010, and made it to the fiesta bowl, with strong defense and strong field position kicking game, and a running offense with no passing offense to really consider. As seems to be the case in 2012, based on teh numbers, it seems that in 2010, if we didn't get the ball at midfield, we didn't have much chance of scoring points.

On offense, we've completely changed our approach to the game, and at the same time, quite literally changed nothing about our offensive production on the field, except we score nearly half the points per game now, that we did in 2009. What's reversed - is as the pass game was virtually a non-threat in 2010, so is our run threat now. THe difference then, is that we could count on our run game to continue to drive over the goal line and put points up in the past, and we have no reliability right now at all, to cross that goal line regularly through the air.

Our special teams have changed - kicker and coverage schemes - mostly because of rule changes in teh game, but our kicking games haven't really changed that much. We've still gotten scores out of the return game, and good field position, and until that Temple game, had essentially no drop off in field goal point production.

This is important, as I go through all this, I think - that in the absence of signifcant change in our offense improvement next year as far as scoring, however they do it run/pass/shadow blocking, whatever....without the increased point production on offens?

The loss of Nick Williams to graduation, adn the ability to replace him, is going to be the key factor in our ability to win any games at all next year.

Because as these numbers are showing, is without that field position gain in both defense and special teams that we've been able to count on for hte past few years - regardless of system......in those two phases, our offense now - has much less likelihood of being in a decent place to score points.....and that's scary. We only average 17 a game now.

Imagine where we'd be if we can't return kicks beyond the 20 yard line. Uggh.

Just building a case against Deleone here.
 

pj

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We haven't been winning the special teams war this year.

UConn vs Opponents:

PUNTS-Yards 51-2036 60-2334
KICKOFFS-Yards 32-2021 33-2027

FIELD GOALS-ATTEMPTS 8-15 10-12
ON-SIDE KICKS 0-1 1-2
KICK RETURNS: #-Yards 19-391 18-435
PUNT RETURNS: #-Yards 16-197 20-172

KICK RETURN AVERAGE 20.6 24.2
PUNT RETURN AVERAGE 12.3 8.6
 
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If you're going to win the way we won in 2010 (or 2007 for that matter) you have to win the battle of turnovers. It is easier to do that when you are a running team rather than a passing team. We are getting beaten in turnovers and takeaway this year. Why a pressure D produces so few takewaways is beyond me.
 
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We won several games in 2010, on the leg of Dave Teggart, by driving close enough with the ball on offense, for him to kick it, and we went 8-4. We'd be 4-4 right now, if not for the field goal kicking game against Temple.

I was surprised to find it, but I shouldn't have been, thinking about how the 2010 season actually went - but our offensive production on the field - our average yardage gained per possession, and our average number of possessions per game - is quite literally exactly the same in the 2012, as it was in 2010.

Strictly by the numbers, what it means,is that if we're to go 7-5, and win the rest of the way, our defense needs to recover and regain focus from whatever happened at Syracuse, and finish out the season the way they started, and our offense, needs to do enough to get into Christen's range regularly, and Christen has to make the kicks.

The difference now in 2012, is that we're going to have to rely on our passing game to get us into that field position on offense, rather than the running game.




Seriously folks. I know there are family and friends that read around here. I'm trying to give us all somethign look forward to and hope for with everything else that's going on.

The season is not lost, as long as there are games to play. By focusing on the things I"m gathering here, we can win games.

It's going to take the players, rallying together, around what they do well, and going out and doing it - regardless of what's happening outside the lines.
 
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If you're going to win the way we won in 2010 (or 2007 for that matter) you have to win the battle of turnovers. It is easier to do that when you are a running team rather than a passing team. We are getting beaten in turnovers and takeaway this year. Why a pressure D produces so few takewaways is beyond me.


I agree BL - entirely. WE had 20 Int's and 11 Fumble recoveries vs. 10 fumbles lost, and 9 interceptions thrown. +11 in interceptions, and +1 in fumbles. Randy was deathly afraid of interceptions, because he knew how critical turnovers were in our success.

So far in 2012, we are 4 Int's and 5 fumble recoveries plus side vs. 11 INt's throwin, and 7 fumbles lost. -7 INt's, and -2 fumbles.

That statistic - is exactly the reason why we are 3-5 right now, and not 5-3 or better. Our approach and style of game, has completely, entirely changed, but the production is essentially the same - except for turnovers.

I knew I could count on you to point that out BL. :)

The real underlying thing - is that we can't block for anymore on offense, and improving blocking doesn't seem to be part of what Deleone is capable of doing......

but that aside....

IF in the next few weeks, we really, REALLY emphasize ball security on O, and takeaways on D - and simply - as players/ as a team, get on the field, and come hell or high water play to our strengths, which is all exactly the same as it was in 2010, except for reversing passing with rushing on offense, we will be in good position to get something positive out of this season, and regain a winning attitude.

In the meantime, I will do everything I can to build the case of absolute buffoonery against our OC, so that we can get somebody in that will actually be able to teach our players to block people again.
 
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I agree BL - entirely. WE had 20 Int's and 11 Fumble recoveries vs. 10 fumbles lost, and 9 interceptions thrown. +11 in interceptions, and +1 in fumbles. Randy was deathly afraid of interceptions, because he knew how critical turnovers were in our success.

So far in 2012, we are 4 Int's and 5 fumble recoveries plus side vs. 11 INt's throwin, and 7 fumbles lost. -7 INt's, and -2 fumbles.

That statistic - is exactly the reason why we are 3-5 right now, and not 5-3 or better. Our approach and style of game, has completely, entirely changed, but the production is essentially the same - except for turnovers.

I knew I could count on you to point that out BL. :)

The real underlying thing - is that we can't block for anymore on offense, and improving blocking doesn't seem to be part of what Deleone is capable of doing......

but that aside....

IF in the next few weeks, we really, REALLY emphasize ball security on O, and takeaways on D - and simply - as players/ as a team, get on the field, and come hell or high water play to our strengths, which is all exactly the same as it was in 2010, except for reversing passing with rushing on offense, we will be in good position to get something positive out of this season, and regain a winning attitude.

In the meantime, I will do everything I can to build the case of absolute buffoonery against our OC, so that we can get somebody in that will actually be able to teach our players to block people again.


This.

The man was not doing a good job as OC and he was given more responsibility in taking over the OL and the production there has gotten worse.

Not for nothing, but many of us criticized the move at the time, remember? I'm glad you've come around to seeing it differently.
 
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It's not Deleone's knowledge or preferred techniques of blocking that I question, it's his ability to teach both the fundamentals, and the team application of it on the field, that is clearly the problem. He's had more than enough time, with players that might not be all future NFL players, but aren't rejects either.
 

SubbaBub

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If Edsall had recruited a Whitmer and a Davis anytime after 2004, we wouldn't be having this discussion about how ugly Randy's offensive system was.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2
 
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If Edsall had recruited a Whitmer and a Davis anytime after 2004, we wouldn't be having this discussion about how ugly Randy's offensive system was.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2


While this is entirely true, it does not change the fact that Edsall is long gone, Whitmer and Davis are here, and we can't block for . I personally, think that retaining Coach P, for this program, is a good thing - and recruiting, is the reason. I think Deleone has to go though, and the nasty problem of it all, is that these two - as they were in Syracuse, appear to be a package deal. I wish we could have Coach P, without coach D. I do.

Here's how I see it.

Saturday morning, October 20, 2012. 7:30am. Approximately 8 hours after UConn was completely destroyed by Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.

Location: Burton Football Complex, Storrs, CT.

Coach P in his office, picks up the phone, keys in the extension number. "Hey - George, can you come to my office for a sec?"

George, "Sure. Be there in a minute."

Knocking as he enters, George says, "What's up? I'm finishing up my grades on the offense now. "

"Yeah, about that George, sit down."

"Oh, not this again.", says George.

"How did the offense grade out?"

"Well, they all graded fairly well, but we just had some bad protections called at times, and they showed us looks we hadn't seen before."

"We're really not doing well on offense, George, and the press and the alumni, are getting all over Warde."

"Yeah, I know Paul, I'm working on it though, these kids just keep screwing up what I tell them to do."

"Well, we need to get it fixed, and now."

"Yeah, ok. Paul." Pause. "That it?"

"No, you do know what you're doing right? We're going to put this thing together just like we did in Syracuse?"

"Yeah." says George.

"Ok." Says Paul.

"That it now Paul?"

"Yeah."

Getting up from chair and leaving, George says, "Ok, see you later."

"Ok." says Paul.




that's it - that's the end of the story.
 

sdhusky

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Why a pressure D produces so few takewaways is beyond me.

This is the thing I can't wrap my head around.

Brown's D will give up big plays on occasion, but shouldn't they also be making some big plays?

It is just bad luck we haven't gotten more take-aways? Seems like guys are dropping INT, fumbles are bouncing the wrong way.

Or is it something the Brown isn't emphasizing? ie stripping the ball? getting hands on passes?
 
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This is the thing I can't wrap my head around.

Brown's D will give up big plays on occasion, but shouldn't they also be making some big plays?

It is just bad luck we haven't gotten more take-aways? Seems like guys are dropping INT, fumbles are bouncing the wrong way.

Or is it something the Brown isn't emphasizing? ie stripping the ball? getting hands on passes?

I highly doubt it's not something that's emphasized. HIghly doubt that.

I think that when our safeties have another year or two in teh system, and the ones behind them are brought up through the system as well, the number of int's will increase, because they will be faster to the ball.
To my knoweldge, right now, the safeties are quarterbacking the D - these guys back there, are the ones that need to get all the presnap stuff right on the field, and move the players around, if necessary, and then go play. They're getting better at it week to week (I'm goign to ignore the Cuse game for now, and treat it as an aberration - we'll see if I'm right as the season plays out). Also - we've had more than a few potential INT's dropped by both LB's and DB's. I could be that in the offseason, those guys just need to practice catching balls.

As for fumble recoveries, I think by season end, we'll be right on pace for what we were in 2010.
 
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I think some of it is bad luck, but I think some of it is not being effective enough pressuring the QB. Whether that is the fact that we don't have a 2d DE we're willing to put on the field, or Brown being a one trick pony that opponents are now able to scheme against I don't know.
 
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IIt really is two things that puts us at 3-5 right now - offensive point production and the swing in interceptions decreased on D, and increased on offense.

The entire offensive, defensive, and kicking games are completely different schematically, and personnel wise as they were 2 years ago, but aside from the points scored decreasing by two offensive possessions (26 down to 17) - the real difference is the number of interceptions.

NOW - do I think it completely ridiculous and insanity that such pressure be put on a defense to control the outcome of games? When you actually have the best chance of scoring points, when you actually possess the bal on offense in the normal course of a game?

Yes, I do. But you can't ignore the reality of where we at.
 
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IIt really is two things that puts us at 3-5 right now - offensive point production and the swing in interceptions decreased on D, and increased on offense.

The entire offensive, defensive, and kicking games are completely different schematically, and personnel wise as they were 2 years ago, but aside from the points scored decreasing by two offensive possessions (26 down to 17) - the real difference is the number of interceptions.

NOW - do I think it completely ridiculous and insanity that such pressure be put on a defense to control the outcome of games? When you actually have the best chance of scoring points, when you actually possess the bal on offense in the normal course of a game?

Yes, I do. But you can't ignore the reality of where we at.

I would be thrilled with the program if we get back to the point where people are upset about the manner in which we are winning games. It beats the heck out of worrying about how we are losing them.
 
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I would be thrilled with the program if we get back to the point where people are upset about the manner in which we are winning games. It beats the heck out of worrying about how we are losing them.


I'm trying BL, I"m really trying. I see how we can win games, with what we've been given on the field, through this transformation of UConn football. If the defense, and I know you agree with me on this, if the defense packs it in, though, we're screwed. That unit needs to carry the team, until we can figure out the changes necessary to be able to finally put a balanced offense on the field. The hopes of having a balanced offense for 2012, are fading very quickly, so we're goign to have to lean on the passing game - since it's the only thing remotely working on offense, and hope that Whitmer's ability to play quarterback, is equal to, or hopefully exceeds the toughness the kid has, and he's able to progress quickly, and that our blockers, do whatever it takes to get him protected long enough, for the receivers to get open.

Frankly - to me - if it takes ignoring whatever the hell they've been taught, to get the defense blocked - so be it.
 
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Only stats I need

Two straight losses to WMU
A bad loss to Temple
A no hope loss to Rutgers
and a We made Syracuse look like Oregon loss.

No two game win streaks
No points in the second half

No hope for this regime
 
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Only stats I need

Two straight losses to WMU
A bad loss to Temple
A no hope loss to Rutgers
and a We made Syracuse look like Oregon loss.

No two game win streaks
No points in the second half

No hope for this regime


Dude - we all know this. No need to rehash it. I'm thinking about the players on the field.
 
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