nelsonmuntz
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I thought the team played well yesterday. Villanova is an excellent team that is just better than UConn. BUT, and this is a big BUT, UConn caught them on an off day and UConn let them off the hook. I thought the players did fine. Villanova knew exactly what UConn wanted to do and took steps to stop it, and the players still kept it close. They worked their butts off on defense despite Villanova wearing UConn out with quick passing and ball reversals. I bet if you had fitbits on both teams, the UConn players took 20% more steps. I didn't expect UConn to win, but my feeling at the end of that game was that the 8 point loss was UConn playing as well as it could and getting some breaks. That could have just as easily been a 20 point loss, and Hurley is a big part of the reason why.
Let's work through some of things Hurley could have or should have done:
Dictate the Pace and Style: Villanova wanted to play a smaller lineup against UConn. Hurley was very accommodating, trying to out 3-and-D Villanova. That strategy worked out about as well as one would expect. UConn had NO CHANCE of beating Villanova at its own game, so why did Hurley try to beat Villanova at its own game? Nova has the passing and movement to make their style work. UConn does not, so the 30 second shot clock felt like 15-20 seconds a lot of time, resulting in a lot of heave shots to try and save the shot clock, while Villanova's possesions felt like they were just picking UConn apart.
Go Fast: If Hurley was going to go small, he must push the pace. First, because going small and slow is a bad idea against any opponent, and second because Villanova only plays 7 players, so pushing the pace could wear them out. Pushing the pace also means taking some risks like releasing guards on the shot, but Hurley is too old school for that so UConn was playing a small lineup with a slow down style. Basically exactly what Wright wanted UConn to do.
or...
Go Big: One way to force Villanova to adjust to UConn would be to pound the ball inside. Whaley was 1-5 from the field, but was actually 1-2 inside the paint. Sanogo was 4-6 from the field, but was actually 4-5 from the paint. If I was coaching a team and we were shooting 5 for 7 from a specific part of the floor, I might try to take more shots from that part of the floor. Instead, Whaley keeps drifting away from the hoop, and the two forwards only play 41 minutes combined. So UConn chose to out-small ball Nova with a lineup that isn't great off the dribble and has issues finishing at the basket. Villanova knows this, so now they can blanket UConn's outside shooters.
The next idiot that says "We need to play small for defense" should receive a lifetime ban. The DRtg's are available for anyone to see. Of the 11 players that get meaningful minutes, here are their DRtg's in order:
Whaley - 93.7
Carlton - 94.4
Sanogo - 95.8
Martin - 98.3
Bouknight - 99.0
Jackson - 101.2
Cole - 102.3
Gaffney - 102.6
Adams - 103.7
Akok - 105.7
Polley - 105.9
Our forwards are better defensively, and they shoot with a higher percentage from the field (Sanogo and Carlton are both over 50%), than our guards outside of Bouknight. Hurley has had 16 games to figure this out. And this happens despite the forwards almost never getting the ball inside of 10 feet of the basket.
Carlton: I want to circle back to Carlton, because typically when Carlton is playing more minutes it means Hurley is playing bigger lineups. Some fun facts on Carlton: of the 14 games vs. P6 opponents, UConn is 7-2 when he plays 10 or more minutes, and 4-1 when he plays 15+ minutes. UConn is 1-4 when he plays less than 10 minutes or doesn't play at all. And the two losses with Carlton playing significant minutes were both against Creighton, one of which went to OT.
We all know Carlton's limitations. He is slow, not athletic enough to be really successful at this level, and can't shoot from outside. But he is 6'11 and has long arms, and he does things like rebounding and interior defense that need to be done so that Bouk, Martin and Cole and the rest can make baskets. Hurley is actually making it harder for Bouk and Martin to score when he goes with small lineups, as we saw yesterday.
5-out Analytics Style: Basketball has existed for over 100 years, and with the advent of the college shot clock it has been the same sport for about 35 years. Following a "hot trend" in coaching like playing 5 out small ball is just stupid, especially when 3 of his best players are forwards. The worst part of this is that this was evident from the first two games this season. Hurley is either hopelessly stubborn or just an idiot.
Hurley needs to get smarter on gameday or he is going to fail at UConn. The Big East competition is just too good. The recruiting will hold up for a while as long as UConn is still a "team on the rise" and putting players in the League. Bouk will help on the second issue, but is UConn still a "team on the rise" if UConn doesn't make the NCAA Tournament in Hurley's third year? The difference between being the 20th and 70th best team in the country is not that big, and a coach can have a big impact on where a team ends up in that range. Wanting to win is not enough, Hurley has got to do better.
Let's work through some of things Hurley could have or should have done:
Dictate the Pace and Style: Villanova wanted to play a smaller lineup against UConn. Hurley was very accommodating, trying to out 3-and-D Villanova. That strategy worked out about as well as one would expect. UConn had NO CHANCE of beating Villanova at its own game, so why did Hurley try to beat Villanova at its own game? Nova has the passing and movement to make their style work. UConn does not, so the 30 second shot clock felt like 15-20 seconds a lot of time, resulting in a lot of heave shots to try and save the shot clock, while Villanova's possesions felt like they were just picking UConn apart.
Go Fast: If Hurley was going to go small, he must push the pace. First, because going small and slow is a bad idea against any opponent, and second because Villanova only plays 7 players, so pushing the pace could wear them out. Pushing the pace also means taking some risks like releasing guards on the shot, but Hurley is too old school for that so UConn was playing a small lineup with a slow down style. Basically exactly what Wright wanted UConn to do.
or...
Go Big: One way to force Villanova to adjust to UConn would be to pound the ball inside. Whaley was 1-5 from the field, but was actually 1-2 inside the paint. Sanogo was 4-6 from the field, but was actually 4-5 from the paint. If I was coaching a team and we were shooting 5 for 7 from a specific part of the floor, I might try to take more shots from that part of the floor. Instead, Whaley keeps drifting away from the hoop, and the two forwards only play 41 minutes combined. So UConn chose to out-small ball Nova with a lineup that isn't great off the dribble and has issues finishing at the basket. Villanova knows this, so now they can blanket UConn's outside shooters.
The next idiot that says "We need to play small for defense" should receive a lifetime ban. The DRtg's are available for anyone to see. Of the 11 players that get meaningful minutes, here are their DRtg's in order:
Whaley - 93.7
Carlton - 94.4
Sanogo - 95.8
Martin - 98.3
Bouknight - 99.0
Jackson - 101.2
Cole - 102.3
Gaffney - 102.6
Adams - 103.7
Akok - 105.7
Polley - 105.9
Our forwards are better defensively, and they shoot with a higher percentage from the field (Sanogo and Carlton are both over 50%), than our guards outside of Bouknight. Hurley has had 16 games to figure this out. And this happens despite the forwards almost never getting the ball inside of 10 feet of the basket.
Carlton: I want to circle back to Carlton, because typically when Carlton is playing more minutes it means Hurley is playing bigger lineups. Some fun facts on Carlton: of the 14 games vs. P6 opponents, UConn is 7-2 when he plays 10 or more minutes, and 4-1 when he plays 15+ minutes. UConn is 1-4 when he plays less than 10 minutes or doesn't play at all. And the two losses with Carlton playing significant minutes were both against Creighton, one of which went to OT.
We all know Carlton's limitations. He is slow, not athletic enough to be really successful at this level, and can't shoot from outside. But he is 6'11 and has long arms, and he does things like rebounding and interior defense that need to be done so that Bouk, Martin and Cole and the rest can make baskets. Hurley is actually making it harder for Bouk and Martin to score when he goes with small lineups, as we saw yesterday.
5-out Analytics Style: Basketball has existed for over 100 years, and with the advent of the college shot clock it has been the same sport for about 35 years. Following a "hot trend" in coaching like playing 5 out small ball is just stupid, especially when 3 of his best players are forwards. The worst part of this is that this was evident from the first two games this season. Hurley is either hopelessly stubborn or just an idiot.
Hurley needs to get smarter on gameday or he is going to fail at UConn. The Big East competition is just too good. The recruiting will hold up for a while as long as UConn is still a "team on the rise" and putting players in the League. Bouk will help on the second issue, but is UConn still a "team on the rise" if UConn doesn't make the NCAA Tournament in Hurley's third year? The difference between being the 20th and 70th best team in the country is not that big, and a coach can have a big impact on where a team ends up in that range. Wanting to win is not enough, Hurley has got to do better.