Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26 | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

Rooster C. said:
Although he makes some valid points overall he's making too much out of too little. The "blue-bloods" will rise to the top as always. The $$$ is there. The transfer portal and NIL will make quick corrections and programs will adjust from developing young talent to assembling proven talent through the portal every year. Which coaches can master that will be the ones the big programs will hire away from lesser programs. It will take a few years for those adjustments to happen but it will happen. If Tennessee decides down the road that Sweet 16 finishes aren't good enough they'll come a-callin to the doorstep of Kara Lawson. Will Penn State go after Indiana's head football coach at the end of the season? There will always be some outliers every year but only over the next few years will we see anything resembling parity. Even now programs like Boston College,Rutgers,Purdue,Wisconsin,etc. are falling further and further behind across the board. Enjoy it while it lasts. I know I will but ultimately look at which programs are in the playoff and tournaments every year and which are in the Final Four and championship game. In this country sports is like everything else - we do have a King and it's name is MONEY.
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Time will tell, however it's interesting to see what has played out so far as in my opinion. With respect to the question in bold, highly doubt it as Indiana just signed Crane to a significant extension.
 
cancontent said:
highly doubt it as Indiana just signed Crane to a significant extension.
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You're right, I forgot about that! But you get the point. I'm all about some level of parity so I'm with you on that. It keeps things interesting.
 
I think the NiL and rev share splits potentially could open up a different class of contenders, but I think it's maybe a little unlikely that many programs that haven't won much go all in on WBB.

I suppose there are some signs of that in Texas. It's probably a relatively small amount of money to move the needle compared to football and mbb to make an impact.
 
It's finally time for Wake Forest!

Megan Gebbia is heading in to her fourth season as head coach and unfortunately has been heading in the wrong direction. In her initial season WF finished 17 - 17/ 5 - 13, followed by 7 - 25/ 2 - 16 in year two, and ending last year at 9 - 20(.310) overall and a dismal 2 - 16(.111) in conference. Wake Forest finished 17th - one spot from the bottom - and won only once on the road all season. I think they're in for yet another difficult year ahead.

What was lost: Too much for a team that finished 17th. Gone are their top 6 scorers and all but one starter. Gone is the only ranked player on the roster and #1 scorer R.Theuerkauf (5'9" Jr. G 12.0ppg) to join Georgia, gone is #2 scorer E. Williams (5'9" G 11.3ppg) to graduation, gone is #3 scorer D. Hinds (6'2" Gr. F 9.3ppg) who will now be looking at them from across the court at Clemson, gone is #4 scorer M. Cowles (6'3" Gr. F 8.8ppg) to ACC foe ND, and also gone to graduation are R. Conley (6'0" G 7.2ppg), T. Jones (5'8" G 7.1ppg), and A. Andrews (6'0" G 4.2ppg). Although M. Quimby (5'9" Jr. G 1.3ppg) withdrew her name from the portal she's not listed on the official roster so ......

What remains: Not a lot. Sometime starter A. Sorbye (5'9" So. G 4.2ppg), reserves M. Jordan (6'1" Jr. G/F 2.7ppg) and K. Moore (6'2" So. F 1.0ppg). That's it. Technically E. Johns (6'1" Gr. F 12.5ppg) who transferred in from American University a year ago but was injured and did not play last year.

Incoming transfers: M. Carter (6'3" rs Sr. G/F 12.9ppg) from Cal Poly, R. Preston (5'11" rs Jr. G 12.3ppg) from Elon, and G. Oliver (6'1" So. F 3.8ppg) from Colorado.

Incoming Freshmen: Two players from Australia, S. Metcalf (6'5" F) and O. Bird (6'3" F). Also coming in are M. Brown (5'8" G), C. Jones (5'8" G), and G. Galbavy (6'0" G) for a total of 5 freshmen.


It's going to be another challenging year for WF to be sure. They have only 3 returning players (one Jr. and two So.), 4 incoming transfers (one Gr. , two Jr., and one So.) and 5 incoming freshmen. Two of the three returning players did not play significant minutes and three of the four transfers were from smaller schools. Coach Gebbia has practically a new team and for all intents and purposes no likely starters outside of A. Sorbye. It will be trial - and - error or more likely trial - by - fire for this squad as she determines what combination works best. She lost both her best back court and front court players so spots are up for grabs. She has a team with 8 players 6'1" or taller and that may help as well as some taller guards on the roster. Having said that I don't think they will match up very well on either end as the ACC is a "guard heavy" league (supposedly) and there are plenty of good , strong post players they will be up against.

With all of that said, they still have a chance to finish ahead of last year. BC was decimated, GT is starting over with a new coach, Cal lost most of their better players, and FSU and Syracuse look to be having a down year so there's a tiny chance to improve although with only 12 players on the roster depth is yet another issue that's a concern. To Gebbia's credit she did get her team to play very competitively last year - losing to Clemson by 6, losing at VT by 7, losing to NC St by 7, losing to Stanford by 3, losing at Miami by 2, taking Louisville to OT before losing, and defeating both Pitt and SMU. If she can get this year's squad to do the same they might actually steal a few more wins. This is essentially a fresh start for WF with 75% of the team made up of Sophomores and Freshmen. It's a chance to build a culture for the future and (hopefully) if they don't continue to lose their best players to the portal each year they could start to turn things around for this program. Hope Springs Eternal.
 
Rooster C. said:
ACC commits in 20266 ESPN NEXT 100 so far:

Duke - 4, ND - 3, Clem - 3, NC - 2, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, FSU - 1, Stan - 1

CAL, MIA, VA, GT, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - 0

Heck man, my team gotta get 2 or 3 just to keep pace wth?!
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Updated: Greedy teams listed first:

Duke - 4, ND - 4, Clem - 4, NC - 2, FSU - 2, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, VT - 1, Stan - 1

CAL, MIA, VA, GT, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - ZERO, NADA, NUTHIN' , ZIPPO, ZILCH
 
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Rooster C. said:
Updated: Greedy teams listed first:

Duke - 4, ND - 4, Clem - 4, NC - 2, FSU - 2, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, VT - 1, Stan - 1

CAL, MIA, VA, GT, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - ZERO, NADA, NUTHIN' , ZIPPO, ZILCH
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Nice touch ignoring the use alphabetical order for the greedy schools. 😉
 
Well we're down to the last of the teams in the ACC - SMU. They gave me the biggest headache of all the teams to analyze - a new coach but one that came over from another P4 conference - and while she lost most of SMU's players to the portal she also brought several of her AZ players through the portal with her.

Adia Barnes took over the helm at SMU after 9 years heading Arizona. Last year SMU finished with an overall record of 10 - 20(.333) and a conference record of 2 - 16(.111) Ouch! Barnes certainly can't do any worse but she'll also be helped by BC losing all their best players to the portal, FSU losing their best players (to the portal and graduation), Cal losing most of their best players to graduation, GT also starting over with a new coach and all of their best players hitting the portal, ND losing nearly everyone to graduation and the portal outside of their star player H.Hidalgo, NC losing 3 double digit starters to graduation, Miami losing nearly all their starters to graduation, and WF is still WF.

Barnes during her time at AZ had an overall win pct of .597 and a conference win pct of .491 so a bit above average.
After reaching her pinnacle of success in year 5 where she played for the national title (in the covid bubble games), she has been unable to get anywhere near that success since - even while doing some stellar recruiting. In fact she's been steadily trending in the opposite direction from losing in the NCAA tournament 2nd round in consecutive years to losing in the 1st round to not qualifying last season. Her team lost in the opening round of the WBIT at home to N.AZ which was followed by her throwing her players under the bus for the loss. Not a good look. This is going to be an interesting - and probably frustrating - year for SMU. I will be taking a look at AZ from last year as well since these two programs are now temporarily somewhat intertwined.

What was lost: Everything in terms of SMU and a lot in terms of AZ. SMU's #1 scorer N.Robertson(Sr. 5'7" G 18.5ppg) left for TN. SMU's #2 scorer graduated but their #3 scorer and leading rebounder (also tops in the ACC) J. Peterson(Gr. 6'2" C 10.3ppg 12.0rpg) left for Miami, their #4 also graduated and their #5 score TK Pitts(Sr. 6'1" G 6.3ppg) joined Houston, E. Brow(rs Jr. 5'8" G 6.1ppg) is now at Baylor, K. Marshall(Jr. 5'11" G 4.7ppg) left for JMU, K. Cox(So. 5'10" G 2.5ppg) went to UCF and several other bench players departed to various programs. Number of returning players on the SMU roster retained by Barnes: 0

Lost to AZ was the #1 scorer (and rising star) J. Williams(Jr. 5'8" G 12.7ppg) to Iowa State, #2 scorer B. Cunningham(Jr. 6'4" F 11.0ppg) to Texas, the #3 scorer S. Jones(Jr. 6'0" G 10.7ppg) to Louisville, the #6 scorer L. Swann(So. 5'7" G 8.0ppg) to Rutgers, as well as a few bench players to various programs.

What remains: 3 players came over to SMU along with Barnes: #5 scorer P. Paris(Sr. 5'9" G 8.3ppg), key reserve S. Jah(Jr. 6'0" W/F 6.6ppg), and M. Rolf(So. 5'10" G 3.2ppg). It's not a lot but this core group of 3 players is at least a decent starting point. Paris will undoubtedly start and Jah is likely to as well. It is a concern that Barnes was unable to "retain" several of her best players - a pattern that she has exhibited over the last few years.


Incoming transfers: In addition to the 3 AZ players there are 9 more players coming to SMU through the portal. T. Skinner may be the best of the bunch and no doubt Barnes was familiar with her play as she came from ASU. Skinner(Gr. 5'5" G 16.8ppg) will undoubtedly start but she is a volume shooter who doesn't have the greatest fg % so...
Like most programs that are faced with "rebuilding" the portal is used to bring in a mix of P4 bench players and solid players from smaller programs. SMU is no exception : A. Brown(Sr. 6'1" F 15.3ppg) from UT-Martin, E. Hill(Jr. 5'7" G 10.9ppg) from Tulsa, K. Deck(Sr. 5'9" G 10.4ppg) from N.Texas, G. Hall(rs Sr. 6'2" F 5.7ppg) from Penn State, J. Harriel(rs Sr. 5'10" G 5.1ppg) from Stanford, M. Ibezim(Sr. 6'2" F 4.1ppg) from Oakland, Z. King(So. 5'10" G 2.8ppg) from Cal, and A. Thompson(Sr. 6'1" G 2.3ppg) from Ole Miss. Of the 9 incoming transfers 7 of them are gone after this coming season.

Incoming freshmen: There are 3 total: R. White(5'11" F), J. Gipson(6'0" F), and from Russia E. Filchagina(6'2" F).


This is going to be a tall task to create a cohesive team with any depth but it is possible. Two of the AZ players will likely start along with Skinner from ASU. So that's 2 guards and a wing/small forward. The 3rd guard will probably be either Hill or Harriel. Chances are Thompson, King and Deck will also see playing time. With 6 guards they should be okay with depth. SMU is in desperate need of size and will likely get hammered on the boards by most conference opponents this year. At 6'2" Hall is their best option to start as she is both their tallest post player and has a lot of P4 playing experience. Ibezim is also 6'2" from Oakland and not sure how much international experience the Russian girl has as an incoming freshman but she is also 6'2". A. Brown is a scorer at 6'1" and may be another possibility. After that you have 2 smallish freshmen forwards at 6'0" and 5'11" who are unlikely to see much action.

While I think this team can be competitive, I just don't expect much from the first season under Barnes. I think they'll get crushed by the top 6 to 8 teams in the conference and lose close games to the 9 through 14 teams, and might actually win a few games against those near the bottom. It's going to be a rough year for SMU. Barnes can definitely recruit(she didn't have time this year) but can she retain her best players? Unless SMU has a lot of NIL money and/or she is able to lure in top players from the portal next year and/or have a surprisingly better season than I can imagine they may be right back here 5 years from now.
 
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Rooster C. said:
Updated: Greedy teams listed first:

Duke - 4, ND - 4, Clem - 4, NC - 2, FSU - 2, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, VT - 1, Stan - 1

CAL, MIA, VA, GT, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - ZERO, NADA, NUTHIN' , ZIPPO, ZILCH
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2nd Update of the greedy teams getting greedier:

Duke - 4, ND - 4, Clem - 4, FSU - 4, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, VT - 1, Stan - 1

MIA, GT, VA, CAL, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - 000000000000000000000000000000000
 
Rooster C. said:
2nd Update of the greedy teams getting greedier:

Duke - 4, ND - 4, Clem - 4, FSU - 4, Lou - 2, NC St - 2, SMU - 2, VT - 1, Stan - 1

MIA, GT, VA, CAL, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - 000000000000000000000000000000000
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Another update for all the greedy teams :

ND - 5, Duke - 4, Clem - 4, FSU*- 3, Lou - 2, NC St. - 2, SMU - 2, Stan - 1, VT - 1

MIA,GT,VA,CAL, SYR, PITT, BC, WF - ZERO

*Some out there have FSU listed with 4 HG TOP 100 but I can only find 3(#21,#31, and #61)
 
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Anna L MWBB.jpg

Miami lands a 6'3" post player out of Latvia. Seems like she's played extensively in Eurobasket/Euroleague. Appears to be a true post player so unusual for a European who doesn't shoot 3's lol. Averages double digits and solid rebounder.
 
Rooster C. said:
This Duke/WV game has certainly been entertaining! Waiting to see who gets kicked out of this HS Gymnasium.
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Apparently, the Greenbriars resort has quite a history. Not sure if they'll take this description of their ballroom too kindly. 😉
 
Rooster C. said:
This Duke/WV game has certainly been entertaining! Waiting to see who gets kicked out of this HS Gymnasium.
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The live stats seem to be ahead of the ESPNU broadcast on my end..........the list of players with techs.......dang.
 
Looks like about 6 players ejected from WV and 1 player from Duke ejected. 5 of the 6 WV players were ejected for leaving the bench although they didn't actually participate in anything. WV is down to 5 players for the remainder of the game lol
 
It wont last but WV has taken a 3 point lead in the 2nd half. They're giving it their best. Up by 6 now lol
 
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Less than 4 min to go and she’s still being effective and they’re still up by 13. Kellogg is a good coach. I wish he was still at UMass.
 
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2 min left. 7 point lead and the coolest story of the season and big playing time for the bench if this holds
 
Stanford is starting to raise some concerns beating a winless WSU team by only 8 points. It was on the road but still. They only had one player with double digit scoring (Swain with 10). Somfai shot 4/12 and 0/5 from 3. Clardy was 3/10 and 0/4. Agara 3/9 and 0/2. Overall Stanford shot 22/54 (41%) and 2/18(11%) from 3. Ouch! I think they'll be okay and hoping this is an aberration but they may not be as good as some have believed.
 
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