Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

[Ladeeeeda]

Rooster, great analysis again. Much thanks.

I completely agree with the notion that something is not quite right in Beantown. I have looked at the comings and goings for BC over the last four seasons, and what happened last year is, to be kind, perplexing. There has to be a back story to the exodus.

It would be interesting to understand the timing of when the BC players entered the portal and when they committed to their new programs. If the time between those two actions is short, it would suggest that the players were simply chasing NIL dollars. On the other hand, if the time between the two actions is not short, then it suggests that perhaps the acquiring team was bringing them on as back-ups. In either case, with the possible exception of Todd going to the Buckeyes, I don't think a single outgoing transfer increased their prospects towards playing professionally by leaving the program.

I'm sensing that Coach Bernabei-McNamee is going to focus this year on developing the freshman and younger players, and that is why she took on so many smaller, perimeter shooting transfers.

I agree with you that this season will be a struggle. I think bottom three is their destiny.

Keep 'em coming!

My understanding is that BC does not prioritize wbb. There is next to nothing in terms of operating budget( compared to other D1 schools) and there is very little NIL. Everyone who left went to a "better" situation.

 

[DefenseBB]

My understanding is that BC does not prioritize wbb. There is next to nothing in terms of operating budget( compared to other D1 schools) and there is very little NIL. Everyone who left went to a "better" situation.

This is my understanding as well, though I am not sure the players who left were anyone to warrant any NIL money. Coach JBM was on the hot seat last year and my guess is she will be let go after this season simply because this is not a good roster and I think the school has been disappointed in the lack of improvement over her tenure. Is it a poor situation for her, yes it is but some of it is of her own making. We will get an early look at the Eagles as we play an exhibition on October.

 

[sivad40]

Boston College you're up.

Boston College began the season unranked and finished it the same way. HC Joanna Bernabei-McNamee finished her 7th year going 16 - 18 overall and 6 - 12 in the ACC. Her overall win pct over her 7 years is .505 and .353 in conference. They did get an invite to the WBIT where they lost in the 1st round to Villanova . While BC didn't lose everbody they certainly came close. You usually don't see this kind of exodus unless there's a coaching change.

What was lost : 13 players! 2 graduated, including the 2nd leading scorer D. Waggoner (13.3ppg) and K. Jackson (4.4ppg).
Transfers in to the portal : Leading scorer T. Todd (Sr. 6'0" G 13.7ppg) to Ohio St., T. Sidberry (Sr. 6'1" F 12.5ppg) to Texas, A. Daley (Gr. 6'0" G 8.6ppg) to ??, S. Samuel (Gr. 6'1" G 6.3ppg) to ACC GT, K. Ivey (Gr. 5'8" G 5.6ppg) to Rutgers, N.Ndiaye (Jr. 6'1" F 4.4ppg) also to Rutgers, T. Greene (So. 6'3" G 4.4ppg) to ACC FSU, K. Lezama (Sr. 5'11" G 2.6ppg) to Hampton, J. Thompson (Jr. 5'8" G 2.2ppg) to Liberty, D. Mukeba Kasanda (So. 6'5" C 1.7ppg) also to ACC GT, and L. Krasovek (6'3" F 1.3ppg) to Purdue Ft. Wayne. Whew!!

What remains : 2 players Starter A. Tomlinson (So. 5'5" PG 2.2ppg) and reserve A. Mcgee (Sr. 5'10" G ) who was injured and did not play last year. In 2023-24 she averaged 1.4ppg. Not much but at least there's the starting PG to run the offense.

Incoming Transfers : 6 players K. Edmonds (rs So. 6'2" F 8.4ppg) from Houston, an Australian from Butler L. Carmody (So. 5'11" G 6.6ppg), K. Henderson (rs Jr. 5'6" G ) from Ohio St., E. Houpt (5'6" G 4.88ppg) from San Diego St., T. McDaniel (Gr. 5'9" G 14.0ppg) from Georgetown College, and E. LoPinto (Gr. 5'4" G) who is actually from BC but has been on the Lacrosse team over her career. Apparently she played hs basketball.

Incoming freshmen: #76 A. Anderson (5'11" G), J. Grier (5'8" G), K. Hall (6'3" F), and a 2nd anomaly K. Rolph (6'2" F) who is listed with a 6.7ppg from Wm & Mary but is also listed as a Freshman on the roster ?!

Wow, this is going to be an absolutely awful year for BC. There's just no way around it. I have no insight as to why all of her players hit the portal. They did not have a great season last year but they were very competitive. They won at Virginia by 15, won at Miami, clobbered Syracuse by 41, drubbed Clemson by 29, lost at Cal by 9 and at Stanford by 5, beat SMU and VT at home. They finished the conference losing the last regular season game at Syracuse by 25 - the turned around and beat them in the 1st round of the ACC tourney followed by a 7 point loss in the 2nd round to NC. They finished 12 - 5 at home and 3 - 10 on the road and obviously that's where the biggest problem was. I understand (expect) a few of the better players on a below average team to leave when very good schools come calling ( Todd to OH. ST. and Sidberry to TX) but this mass exodus smacks of something more. But since that's what happened let's take a look at the team for this year....

Back court : Tomlinson for sure, Carmody probable as starters. From there it's returning McGee, Houpt, Henderson, and McDaniel and the 2 freshmen Anderson and Grier. My money is on Anderson and whoever else is up in the air. That will give her 4 guards plus 5 reserves (counting the Lacrosse player) sahe can use in rotation. As bad as that is, there are only a few experienced guards over 5'6" in height. In the front court there are only 3 players : Edmonds (6'2") who will start and freshman Hall (6'3") along with mystery player Rolph (6'2").

Next to Wes Moore, Bernabei-McNamee is probably one of the better evaluators of "hidden" talent (or whoever does their scouting). Either that or she's great at developing talent. She usually only gets about one top 100 player/year and they are usually #70 or higher. Most are unranked. Yet year after year she ends up losing a player or two to "better" teams once that talent has blossomed. However, this is asking too much from any coach to do in a single year. Even with the turnover in GT and Miami and to a lesser degree at SMU I just can't see this team finishing anywhere other than dead last (18th).

I might give credit JBM for being a better recruiter than a scout because some of the players she had like Todd and Greene had more heralded schools on the final lists and they chose to go to BC. BC is pretty much a feeder school for other schools to get their players after a year or two at BC.

 

[maple]

Syracuse was ranked at around #40 preseason and ended it unranked. It was an up and down season for them as they finished at 12 - 18 overall and 6 - 12 in the ACC. Over her 3 years at Syracuse coach Felisha Legette-Jack has a win pct. of .589 with a .519 win pct in conference. This last year was her worst and the first with less than 20 wins and with a losing record.

So let's take a look at how they stack up for the coming season.

What was lost : All of the starters save one. Gone is #1 scorer G. Woolley (6'0" G 16.0ppg) and K. Wood (6'3" F 11.6ppg) the #3 scorer to graduation. Also gone are D. Camp (5'8" G 4.3ppg), S. Wilson (6'0" F 4.5ppg), and L. McNabb (5'7" G) also to graduation. The other big loss after Woolley and Wood was I. Verajao (6'4" C 6.8ppg) from Brazil who has also moved on.

What remains : Some good news here as most of the reserves saw a fair amount of time on the court a year ago. This includes S. Hawkins (So. 6'2" W 4.2ppg), J. Thompson (Sr. 6'3" F 3.3ppg), O. Schmitt (So. 5'5" G 1.7ppg), and A. Velez (Jr. 5'7" G 2.6ppg). Also back are reserves M. Potts (So. 6'0" G 3.0ppg) and K. Scott (So. 6'1" F 4.8ppg). So if nothing else they'll have a pretty deep bench.

Incoming transfers: Shockingly this was one of the few teams without any out going transfers. Biggest amongst the new faces will be L. Phelia (Gr. 6'0" G 6.1ppg) out of Texas. O. Akinbolawa (Sr. 6'5" C 3.4ppg) from Auburn, D. Darius (Gr. 5'10" G 2.5ppg) from USC, and A. Almon (So. 6'4" F 1.3 ppg) from ACC Miami arrive as well.

Incoming Freshmen : 4 players make up this years' class. #60 J. Cooper (6'1" W), C. Nelson (5'8" G), J. Fitzgerald (6'1" F) and I. Uche (6'3" C).


This year will be a challenge no doubt. The loss of a special player like Dyaisha Fair was clearly felt. Syracuse began the conference season going 1 - 7 over their first 8 games and that was with many experienced starters. This coming year won't be any easier other than maybe BC and GT.

The back court has returning starter Burrows and her 39.6% from three. Joining her will definitely be Phelia and probably reserve Hawkins. After that it will be a lot of players getting minutes between returning reserves Schmitt, Velez, Scott, and Potts as well as newcomer Darius and freshman Cooper. The front court will consist of reserve Thompson backed up by incoming transfers Akinbolawa and Almon. I don't expect the other 3 freshmen to see much playing time.

This will be another difficult season upcoming for Syracuse. They do have their 2nd leading scorer back and I expect Legette-Jack will give Phelia the green light so we should see a return to the kind of numbers she put up during her time at Michigan and perhaps better. That was nearly 17 ppg. Having said that Woolley was putting up 16ppg so not as significant as it seems. It was not surprising they lost to MD at home last year but they were competitive. But losing by 14 at home to St. Joseph's and 3 at home to U. Albany were not good losses. Those are decent teams but at home you have to win those if you're going anywhere at the end of the season. They lost to Creighton by 27 (neutral court) and to a mediocre Texas A&M on the road. They lost to SMU at home and were destroyed at BC by 41 pts! To finish the year they lost in the 1st round of the ACC tournament to BC. There are problems here beyond the loss (or addition of) a single great player. Better recruiting would be a good starting point. They don't lose too much next year so there's a solid core to build upon IF she can get some good recruits in the 2026 class. Of course that's assuming the rest stay put after this season ends. I look for Syracuse to be in the bottom portion of the conference probably around 12th at best and more likely below that.

Good write up.

I don’t pay too much attention to Syracuse in the off season but I am expecting this to be a so-so season at best. One of their biggest issues last year was inability to close out game and complete mental lapses. It’s both a coaching failure and lack of high basketball IQ. Often times it seemed like Cuse only showed up to play a single half.

Recruiting is a huge weakness. I’m not saying Syracuse is a resort destination for college students, but they should be able to bring in more talent than they do. I suspect they get little to no help from the school when it comes to $$$, which certainly plays a huge part nowadays.

Let’s see what the transfers can do. I wasn’t overly impressed with the transfer players last year. This team has definitely lost talent. Some players really have to take a significant step up from last year.

I think Coach Jack has a long leash with SU, but if they’re trying to get more butts in seats they need to show they can at least win the games they’re “supposed” to win. If they go .500 this year I’ll consider it an improvement over last. But don’t expect any casual fan up here to be impressed with anything less than a win over a “big” ACC opponent and a NCAA tourney spot.

 

[Rooster C.]

Clemson is due up next.......

 

[Rooster C.]

Clemson finished year one under new head coach Shawn Poppie with an overall record of 14 - 17 (.452) and a conference record of 6 - 12 (.333) so not great but considering it was pretty much a total rebuild not terrible. They obviously began and ended the season unranked. Poppie convinced the two freshmen he inherited to stay as well as getting two others back who had entered the portal. He did a decent job finding players in the portal as well but the one thing he did differently than most of the first year ACC coaches was to bring several players from his former team in with him. While it was a step up from Chattanooga for those players it probably helped stabilize things a bit in year one since those 3 players were familiar with his coaching structure. He also grabbed a player from Mercer who he was obviously already familiar with coming from the same conference as Chattanooga. Clemson ended their season in the ACC tourney with a surprising 17 pt defeat over Stanford followed by a 2 pt overtime loss to Louisville. Not a bad showing for Poppie's first ACC conference tournament.

What was lost: 9 players. Like a couple of the other first year coaches (VT, Miami) most of the players were lost to graduation and most of those were "one year rentals" picked up through the portal. Having said that all the starters but one are now gone including leading scorer L. McQueen (5'8" G 13.5ppg). Also gone are T. Miller ( 6'2" F 8.2ppg), S. Evans (6'0" F 5.7ppg), A. Poole (6'2" F 5.3ppg), M. Cluse (5'10" G 5.0ppg), A. Porter (5'4" G 2.2ppg), M. Ott (5'10" G 1.3ppg), and seldomly used bench players J. Griggs, B. Ranallo (transfer to Ohio), and K. Kellermann.

What remains : The lone starter M. Moore (Sr. 5'6" G 10.8ppg) and #2 scorer. Also back are 2 key reserves brought along from Chattanooga H. Kohn (Jr. 5'9" G 9.2ppg) and R. Thompson (Sr. 5'10" F 6.0ppg). Additionally bench player M. Miller is also back (So. 6'2" F). Four returning players is not much but is to be expected and will be a core from which to start building.

Incoming transfers : 6 players in total and here's where it starts to get interesting. T. Johnson-Matthews (Sr. 5'9" G 14.5ppg) from DePaul, M. Lee (Sr. 6'5" C 12.6ppg) from Marist, R. Rose (Sr. 5'7" G 12.5ppg) from Wofford, D. Hinds (Gr. 6'2" F 9.3ppg) from fellow ACC team WF, H. Perriman (Sr. 6'2" G/F 8.6ppg) from Tulsa, and R. Augustinaite (Jr. 6'0" G/F 5.2ppg) from fellow ACC GT. Only one of those will be returning after this season.

Incoming freshmen : 3 players. #64 H. Harris (6'1" G/F), #100 A. Jackson (5'8" G), and J. Butler (6'1" G/F).

The back court could be very interesting this season. Moore will obviously return as starter and Kohn will likely be the first guard off the bench along with Thompson. Clearly Johnson-Matthews from DePaul and Rose from Wofford will be the other 2 starting in the back court. Johnson-Matthews was a bit of a Jekyl-and-Hyde player last season playing lights out at home and just awful on the road so we'll see how that works out. Rose is a special player and I believe could really be a difference maker for Clemson. She does it all - points, rebounds, assists. She may play the 1 or the 2 or some of both. Against P4 opponents she played her absolute best and even Duke's defense couldn't shut her down. People who don't know who she is will find out soon enough. The front court will consist of Hinds or Periman (or both) and Lee as needed. I also expect freshman Harris to get a very long look and expect returner Miller and the other 2 freshmen to see limited action from the bench.

I feel like Clemson could take a step forward this year and when Shawn Poppie was hired after 2 years of winning over 70% each year he coached at Chattanooga perhaps the administration was looking at the possibility that he could become another Wes Moore. That would certainly be a great hire if it turns out anywhere close to that. Obviously it's too early to know but I do know Moore had many, many more years at Chattanooga and still had a better win rate than Poppie.

Clemson had a couple of obvious problems last year. One was that they were 2 - 7 on the road in conference play and those wins were WF and SMU so that's not saying much. Granted nobody expected them to win at Duke, NC State, Louisville, FSU, or GT but losing by 13 at Pitt and 29 at BC is not good. The biggest problem Clemson had last year was a lack of size in the front court. They had no player taller than 6'2" on the roster. In today's game in general you have to be able to match up in the post with other teams (especially within your conference) unless you have an extraordinary back court. Although that was somewhat addressed with the addition of Lee she has never played at this level before. Worse than that, both Hinds and Lee have serious shortcomings. Hinds commits way too many fouls and if she hasn't corrected that by her senior year I doubt things are going to change. Lee is both a terrible shot and prone to massive numbers of turnovers. Hinds has her share as well......as does Periman. I'm not talking 3 or 4 to's here but 6, 7, 8, 9 even more - in a single game! That's a disaster in the making! The lack of a solid front court was their Achille's Heel last year and I'm afraid until that's taken care of - especially this season - they will be destroyed in the paint. Every decent opposing post player they went up against last year had a dbl-dbl against them and nearly all of those were losses. I don't see that changing.

Although Poppie has shown he can recruit and is doing so again (but even better) for 2026, it's a slow building process with 7 of 13 players not returning after the season. So that leaves the portal once again and while he's done a pretty good job in navigating it so far without being able to land any big fish it's hard to see any major leaps in winning overall. And they still don't have any good post players on the horizon. I doubt we'll see a huge improvement this year but with the GT and SMU coaching changes/re-boots as well as significant drop offs to BC and Cal and probably no improvement at WF it's likely to be about the same. Look for them to finish 14th once again and no post season play.