Thoughts/Analysis on the ACC heading into 2025-26

[Bone Dog]

Miles, Koval, and Risch were undoubtedly expected to play a major role on this year's team.

Another excellent analysis. Thanks again.

This particular remark really stands out for me. It’s not so much Miles, but Risch. She put in her time at ND and was poised to play a significant role in whatever they achieve. And yet she left. Unlike Miles, she’s not high on any GM’s eventual draft list. Her departure suggests she didn’t like it at ND and was willing to leave for what is likely to be a less prominent role at a lower profile school. This is not a good sign for Niele.

On the other hand, though I think you’re right that they may lose a lot of games, they are likely to be a tough out for any opponent. Irish pride is real and the kids who stayed will pass it on to the new arrivals.

 

[YoDore]

If I had to take a team that wasn't generally considered to be a contender to turn out to be one, it would be Duke.

To me UNC is team with a ceiling that's waiting on the transformational star.

Could be Kate Harpring, who arrives next season.

 

[triaddukefan]

Could be Kate Harpring, who arrives next season.

Simmer down buddy.

 

[Rooster C.]

Could be Kate Harpring, who arrives next season.

If - and it's a big if - NC doesn't suffer many key losses this next off season to the portal they certainly will have the pieces in place to surround her with. And we haven't yet seen what this years' crop of incoming freshman can do or who else she'll add to this years' recruits because there will definitely be more maybe even three more. (Sorry triaddukefan)

 

[FanInNC]

Banghart can recruit, no question.

 

[Jumper33]

Another excellent analysis. Thanks again.

This particular remark really stands out for me. It’s not so much Miles, but Risch. She put in her time at ND and was poised to play a significant role in whatever they achieve. And yet she left. Unlike Miles, she’s not high on any GM’s eventual draft list. Her departure suggests she didn’t like it at ND and was willing to leave for what is likely to be a less prominent role at a lower profile school. This is not a good sign for Niele.

On the other hand, though I think you’re right that they may lose a lot of games, they are likely to be a tough out for any opponent. Irish pride is real and the kids who stayed will pass it on to the new arrivals.

I believe Risch didn’t get much playing time when she was healthy which wasn’t often, definitely in need of a fresh start.

It’ll be interesting, I think ND could potentially be really bad. I still think Ivey seems like a class act person but this whole situation has gone really off the rails for her.

Hidalgo narrowly averaged more field goal attempts per game this past season than the previous one, despite being surrounded by Miles, Westbeld, King, and the newly minted Mystics rookie scoring record holder. She didn’t even wanna pass to players of that caliber, so how many shots is she going to take now? She became visibly frustrated on court with teammates of that caliber, so how frustrated will she be now?

Ok, that may be harsh, needless to say I’m not the biggest fan of Hidalgo’s playstyle. With all due respect of course because objectively she is one of the most talented players in the country. We’ll see what Ivey does with this roster.

 

[Rooster C.]

they are likely to be a tough out for any opponent.

I agree. Which is exactly why I referred to their likely being very similar to last years' FSU. FSU was in the Top 25 rankings most of the year (and in fact one of the only teams to defeat ND at home last season) and entered the NCAA tournament as a 6 - seed only to be destroyed by LSU in the 2nd round by 30. And Latson had 2 key teammates who had been playing with her for several years including Timpson who is now in the WNBA. I don't think Hidalgo has any players of that caliber on her team at the moment. Still they could finish as high as 5th in the conference - or as low as 10th.

 

[Rooster C.]

Louisville is the next team up.

Louisville's season concluded with a loss in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament by 20+ points to TCU. Louisville was a 7 - seed coming in so I don't think much more was expected from a very up-and-down year. They entered the season with a #17 ranking and ended it with a #26 ranking which was about right. Jeff Walz has been an ACC HC longer than any other person in the conference having finished his 18th season. He's not only the longest tenured in the conference he's also the best with a .769 win pct. Like so many other coaches I've discussed to this point the coming season will prove to be a challenge just to maintain their 5th place finish in the ACC and make an appearance in the NCAA tournament.

What was lost: 4 out of the 5 starters - one to the portal and the other 3 to graduation. J.Curry (14.4 ppg), O. Cochran (10.4ppg), and J.Williams (6.7ppg) are gone and N.Harris (8.6ppg) opted to play her senior year at NC. Reserves M.Russell (4.4ppg) and E. Imafidon (to Providence) are also gone as is sophomore to be (#88 ranked freshman) I. Arenas to KSU.

Remaining: The only returning starter is #24 ranked freshman (now soph) T. Roberts (5'10" G 12.8ppg - 2nd on the team), #19 ranked freshman (now soph) I. Berry (5'10" G 4.9ppg), #23 ranked M. Randolph (so. 6'0" F 3.6ppg), E. Istanbulloglu from Turkey (jr. 6'3" F 4.9ppg), I. Juffermans from Australia (so. 6'4" F 2.3ppg), A. Hardy (so. 6'3" F 0.9ppg) and returning from injury are R. Bender (so. 5'10" G) and R. Graves (rs fr. 5'6" G).

Transfers coming in: S. Jones (jr. 6'0" G/F 10.7 ppg from Arizona), R. Scott (sr. 5'10" G 4.8ppg from Oklahoma), and L. Ziegler (sr. 6'2" F 17.5ppg from St. Joseph's).

Incoming freshmen: #78 G. Mbugua (6'4" F), Y. Putra (from Ukraine 6'3" F) and P. Bradley (5'9" G)

Walz has his work cut out for him. He has put together transfers to make a team in the past so that experience will certainly be beneficial for this coming year. Experienced Guards Curry and Williams are gone so he'll need some mixture of transfers Jones and Scott along with returnees Berry, Randolph, Bender, and Graves to fill in alongside Roberts. Aside from Roberts there are certainly a lot of questions surrounding how well these players came come together to form a cohesive unit that can put enough points on the board.

As for the front court I'm sure he's hoping Ziegler (originally from Denmark) can help with the scoring inside and be a replacement for the departing Harris and incoming freshman Mbugua along with Istanbulloglu, Juffermans, and Hardy to do their best to help out with the loss of Cochran. Ziegler had 20 dbl-dbls last season (yes 20) and that was no outlier either as she has been nearly that good for several years. The asterisk is that came at St. Joseph's so can it translate at this level ? As I have stated before, many of the ACC teams this year will be using a 2 - post player starting 5 and matching up against strong experienced duos every game or two can be a real challenge. Istanbulloglu had herself a pretty good Eurobasket tournament this summer both in points and rebounds. But again, Eurobasket dominance is not the same as playing in a major conference in the NCAA . Still, Walz is a smart experienced coach and I'm not going to sell that short.

I believe he can put it together enough to finish in the top 5 through 8 teams in the ACC but with last year's freshman class and the addition of Mbugua this year I see the foundation for the future with the portal acting as a stop gap measure for this year and possibly next. ND has only one returning starter also, NC and NC State both have only 2, and many of the ACC teams that finished behind Louisville last year are in a similar situation. So once you get past the top 3 or 4 teams there's going to be a real battle for spots 5 through 10. It's going to be interesting to see who wins those battles but Walz has shown over the years that he has the inside track.

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis! I was more pessimistic about Louisville before I’d read your inventory of who’s returning. I’m looking forward to seeing what they can do. Of all the departures, I’ll miss Olivia Cochrane most. She’s been one of my favorite players to watch over the past few years.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Could be Kate Harpring, who arrives next season.

I'm not sure..but maybe.

I don't think she made much of an impression with National team, but I like her highlights and game.

 

[Reypl21]

I'm not sure..but maybe.

I don't think she made much of an impression with National team, but I like her highlights and game.

That could be the case for a lot of players. I remember Cameron Brink and Sarah Strong both had lackluster team USA runs the summer before they started college. Harpring was one the younger players too, she'll be alright.

 

[Rooster C.]

Florida State.....

FSU did not finish their season on a high note losing in the 2nd round by 30 points at LSU. Over her 4 seasons as the HC (one interim) at FSU, Booke Wyckoff has managed to maintain the 4th best record in the ACC with a .657 win pct. (.672 overall). With the loss of the #1 scoring talent in the country to the portal along with the graduation of #2 and #3 scoring options it's very close to being a total rebuild for the 'Noles. I look for her lofty winning in the ACC to slide this year. Last season FSU began the year ranked #19 and finished it ranked #22 but getting ranked at all this year will require some heavy lifting.

What was lost: Well.......A LOT. T. Latson, (25.2ppg) the nation's leading scorer for starters. She will finish her illustrious career at S.Carolina before moving on to the WNBA. Speaking of which that is where the #2 scorer on the team M. Timpson (17.5ppg) is now at. The #3 scorer O. Gordon (15.9ppg) and the other starter M. Williams (4.4ppg) both graduated. They also lost most of their reserves to the portal : M. Valenzuela (6'2" F 3.5ppg) to S. Hall, T. Viegas 5'9" G 6.0ppg) to rival Pitt, R. Dias dos Santos (5'9" G 2.6ppg) to rival Va., B. Turnage (6'1" G 1.7ppg) to rival GT, and M. Chavez (6'1" F ) to Fresno St. That's a total of 4 starters and 5 reserves lost.

Remaining: The lone starter S. Bowles (Sr. 6'0" G 10.6ppg) is back to "steady the ship" along with A. Bonner (Sr. 6'0" G 3.4ppg) who is ready to move up to a starting spot. Also back is reserve A. Threadwell (Jr. 6'3" F 2.8ppg). That's not much to be honest.

Incoming Transfers : J. Shavers (Sr. 5'8" G 14.9ppg) from Tx. Tech, E. Risch (6'1" G 5.7ppg) from rival ND, A. Kubeck (Gr. 6'2" F 9.1ppg) from MD, S. Williams (So. 5'9" G 7.6ppg) from Tx. A&M, T. Greene (So. 6'3" G 4.4ppg) from rival BC, and P. Davis (Jr. 6'6" C 15.0ppg) from NM JCC.

Incoming Freshman: M. Gerton (5'7" G ) who was once ranked in the the Top 100 but fell out when it was updated.

So what has Wyckoff got here ? A total of 10 players with only 3 returning players and 1 starter. I doubt the freshman will figure prominently so that leaves 9 usable players 6 of whom are transfers who have to learn a new system. It's going to be impossible to replace a player like Latson period. Not to mention the combined 63 points of offense that left with the departing starters. Even with them last year was up-and-down with losses they shouldn't have had. The transfers will make or break this team. Shavers is a bucket but she is also a volume shooter and that can be problematic. Kubek is solid but is no Timpson. Risch and Williams are also solid players but Gordon scored as much as the two of them combined. Greene should be a solid bench player. And then there's Davis who I'll discuss in a minute.

The back court is going to be Bowles, Shavers, Risch, Bonner, and Williams probably with different line ups until Wyckoff figures out what combination works best as a starting rotation but I expect the remaining 2 will see plenty of action in rotation.

The front court will be Kubeck and probably Davis. Davis is an interesting pick up - an Australian, ranked #1 player coming out of Junior College. Being 6'6" will definitely help as I still believe most teams will be using a more traditional C/PF duo this year. You have to be able to match up when push comes to shove 😉 Can Davis step up at the next level or become a player relegated to the bench like Sakima Walker was at SC last year ? Of course Dawn had more choices. The only other player of size (who is not a guard) is returning Jr. forward Threadwell at 6'3".

Any way you slice it this is a difficult task. FSU and Wyckoff are in a similar boat to Ivey and N. Dame. The main difference being Ivey has Hidalgo. Wyckoff does have the pieces to make a competetive team but like Ivey hasn't done a stellar job of recruiting. In fact she hasn't been able to sign a Top 100 player since she took over unless you want to count 2021 and 2022 which I don't. Even with that core group - who just left - she was never able to get past the 2nd round of the NCAA even with Latson. Wyckoff is a fighter. She has missed very few games even while battling cancer. She will continue to persevere in spite of the odds. But let's be honest - it's a steep climb. She's going to lose another 4 players minimum at the end of the season. Until she starts recruiting better this year is likely to be what FSU's future will look like. Can her system of all -offense, no -defense succeed going forward? Unless you have the horses I don't think so. Look for FSU to be middle of the pack between 7th and 12th.

 

[GoChips20]

Notre Dame could be bad this year anyway but almost certainly would be without Moore transferring from Vanderbilt which gives them another backcourt scorer.

They’re gonna have to ride on chemistry and creativity because the roster is thin in numbers and also kind of weirdly constructed although ND really didn’t have a choice about that.

They’ll be good at guard, competent at wing, and poor in the frontcourt which could turn to disastrous if Cowles misses any time.

I think making the second round of the tournament would be a good outcome for ND this year, and to be fair, also feels achievable.

 

[Bone Dog]

Florida State.....

FSU did not finish their season on a high note losing in the 2nd round by 30 points at LSU. Over her 4 seasons as the HC (one interim) at FSU, Booke Wyckoff has managed to maintain the 4th best record in the ACC with a .657 win pct. (.672 overall). With the loss of the #1 scoring talent in the country to the portal along with the graduation of #2 and #3 scoring options it's very close to being a total rebuild for the 'Noles. I look for her lofty winning in the ACC to slide this year. Last season FSU began the year ranked #19 and finished it ranked #22 but getting ranked at all this year will require some heavy lifting.

What was lost: Well.......A LOT. T. Latson, (25.2ppg) the nation's leading scorer for starters. She will finish her illustrious career at S.Carolina before moving on to the WNBA. Speaking of which that is where the #2 scorer on the team M. Timpson (17.5ppg) is now at. The #3 scorer O. Gordon (15.9ppg) and the other starter M. Williams (4.4ppg) both graduated. They also lost most of their reserves to the portal : M. Valenzuela (6'2" F 3.5ppg) to S. Hall, T. Viegas 5'9" G 6.0ppg) to rival Pitt, R. Dias dos Santos (5'9" G 2.6ppg) to rival Va., B. Turnage (6'1" G 1.7ppg) to rival GT, and M. Chavez (6'1" F ) to Fresno St. That's a total of 4 starters and 5 reserves lost.

Remaining: The lone starter S. Bowles (Sr. 6'0" G 10.6ppg) is back to "steady the ship" along with A. Bonner (Sr. 6'0" G 3.4ppg) who is ready to move up to a starting spot. Also back is reserve A. Threadwell (Jr. 6'3" F 2.8ppg). That's not much to be honest.

Incoming Transfers : J. Shavers (Sr. 5'8" G 14.9ppg) from Tx. Tech, E. Risch (6'1" G 5.7ppg) from rival ND, A. Kubeck (Gr. 6'2" F 9.1ppg) from MD, S. Williams (So. 5'9" G 7.6ppg) from Tx. A&M, T. Greene (So. 6'3" G 4.4ppg) from rival BC, and P. Davis (Jr. 6'6" C 15.0ppg) from NM JCC.

Incoming Freshman: M. Gerton (5'7" G ) who was once ranked in the the Top 100 but fell out when it was updated.

So what has Wyckoff got here ? A total of 10 players with only 3 returning players and 1 starter. I doubt the freshman will figure prominently so that leaves 9 usable players 6 of whom are transfers who have to learn a new system. It's going to be impossible to replace a player like Latson period. Not to mention the combined 63 points of offense that left with the departing starters. Even with them last year was up-and-down with losses they shouldn't have had. The transfers will make or break this team. Shavers is a bucket but she is also a volume shooter and that can be problematic. Kubek is solid but is no Timpson. Risch and Williams are also solid players but Gordon scored as much as the two of them combined. Greene should be a solid bench player. And then there's Davis who I'll discuss in a minute.

The back court is going to be Bowles, Shavers, Risch, Bonner, and Williams probably with different line ups until Wyckoff figures out what combination works best as a starting rotation but I expect the remaining 2 will see plenty of action in rotation.

The front court will be Kubeck and probably Davis. Davis is an interesting pick up - an Australian, ranked #1 player coming out of Junior College. Being 6'6" will definitely help as I still believe most teams will be using a more traditional C/PF duo this year. You have to be able to match up when push comes to shove 😉 Can Davis step up at the next level or become a player relegated to the bench like Sakima Walker was at SC last year ? Of course Dawn had more choices. The only other player of size (who is not a guard) is returning Jr. forward Threadwell at 6'3".

Any way you slice it this is a difficult task. FSU and Wyckoff are in a similar boat to Ivey and N. Dame. The main difference being Ivey has Hidalgo. Wyckoff does have the pieces to make a competetive team but like Ivey hasn't done a stellar job of recruiting. In fact she hasn't been able to sign a Top 100 player since she took over unless you want to count 2021 and 2022 which I don't. Even with that core group - who just left - she was never able to get past the 2nd round of the NCAA even with Latson. Wyckoff is a fighter. She has missed very few games even while battling cancer. She will continue to persevere in spite of the odds. But let's be honest - it's a steep climb. She's going to lose another 4 players minimum at the end of the season. Until she starts recruiting better this year is likely to be what FSU's future will look like. Can her system of all -offense, no -defense succeed going forward? Unless you have the horses I don't think so. Look for FSU to be middle of the pack between 7th and 12th.

Thanks for another excellent analysis! It looks like scorched earth at FSU. I have a suspicion Risch will show us all something next season. But it may not be enough to make much of a difference given what the rest of the team looks like.

 

[YKCornelius]

Notre Dame could be bad this year anyway but almost certainly would be without Moore transferring from Vanderbilt which gives them another backcourt scorer.

They’re gonna have to ride on chemistry and creativity because the roster is thin in numbers and also kind of weirdly constructed although ND really didn’t have a choice about that.

They’ll be good at guard, competent at wing, and poor in the frontcourt which could turn to disastrous if Cowles misses any time.

I think making the second round of the tournament would be a good outcome for ND this year, and to be fair, also feels achievable.

GoChips20, I agree that making the second round of the NCAA tournament would be a good outcome for the Irish.

That said, there are only two paths to the second round: (1) via hosting as a Top 16ish team and getting the benefit of playing a 13-16th seeded team at home; or (2) via being a visiting team playing another visiting team on a neutral court.

Hosting as a Top 16 seeded team (Path #1) would be a significant achievement in itself, and no doubt be one of the top WCBB stories of all-time if that were to happen. We would probably see a surge in newborns named Hannah born in northern Indiana nine months later.

Given the NCAA tournament challenges the Irish have had winning away from Purcell Pavillion during Coach Ivey's tenure, Path #2 is challenging as well, and would be largely dependent on which 5th-12th seed they are playing. A mid-major conference winner, or a non-ACC team finishing in the top half of their P4 conference would likely be their first round opponent on Path #2.

Is getting to the second round achievable? With a strong showing in the ACC to get to the Big Dance, plus a wee bit of Luck o' the Irish as it comes to seeding, maybe. Either path is not easy, and is more akin to a Yellow Brick Road filled with lions, and tigers and bears - oh my!