This year is make or break for the 3-3-5.

[Husky25]

As of today there isn't a single player on the defense who is an AAC average player.

I suppose it's a good thing then that UConn doesn't have a game this week.

I'm more interested in what the defense looks like at the end of August.

 

[whaler11]

I suppose it's a good thing then that UConn doesn't have a game this week.

I'm more interested in what the defense looks like at the end of August.

Now matters because you are making the prediction now.

That’s my point - you are predicting the defense will be better even though all the evidence RIGHT NOW gives no reason to come to that conclusion.

 

[Exit 4]

Now matters because you are making the prediction now.

That’s my point - you are predicting the defense will be better even though all the evidence RIGHT NOW gives no reason to come to that conclusion.

While we are at it, lets remember there has been virtually no reason at the end of every one of the past post Fiesta bowl seasons to think the following would be better.

 

[Hornet22]

Now matters because you are making the prediction now.

That’s my point - you are predicting the defense will be better even though all the evidence RIGHT NOW gives no reason to come to that conclusion.

Time will definitely tell.
Would you admit that at the minimum we got a bit longer and more athletic at certain positions on D?

 

[whaler11]

Time will definitely tell.
Would you admit that at the minimum we got a bit longer and more athletic at certain positions on D?

Sure - a bunch of guys who have never played a down of FBS football.

It’s an improved class. It’s not a class where 5 true freshman are better than what left.

 

[Hornet22]

Sure - a bunch of guys who have never played a down of FBS football.

It’s an improved class. It’s not a class where 5 true freshman are better than what left.

That’s a fair statement.
Well, a rebuild has to start from somewhere right? Hopefully these recruits turn out ok and he keeps getting better players.
It’s all you can hope for at this point.

 

[whaler11]

That’s a fair statement.
Well, a rebuild has to start from somewhere right? Hopefully these recruits turn out ok and he keeps getting better players.
It’s all you can hope for at this point.

Sure but read the title and premise of this thread.

 

[Hornet22]

Sure but read the title and premise of this thread.

Got it. And I agree. At minimum two years needs to be allotted to see meaningful improvement.
I guess the make or break aspect of this implies you can just slide inexperienced players into the set and it magically works. I definitely do not agree with that. And yes, if the newbies are better than what we currently have then guess what? You’ll still have inexperienced players trying to figure it all out. They will take their lumps for sure. But I think we can agree that we will be able to tell, inspite of the lump taking, if there’s light at the end of the tunnel?

 

[Husky25]

Now matters because you are making the prediction now.

That’s my point - you are predicting the defense will be better even though all the evidence RIGHT NOW gives no reason to come to that conclusion.

First of all, I predicted that the defense will be, "a little better than suck, but it won't be terrific either..." I did not proclaim that they will be top 15. I later amended that statement to accepting a below average D provided a reasonable uptick on offense. Secondly, I think that is a faulty premise. It seems you are assuming the defense for the three teams below UConn will definitely improve by comparison, while UConn languishes. What is that based on? Finally, UConn was 126 out of 129 FBS programs in total defense. They really can't get much worse...at least by comparison to their peers.

Predictions are not made in a vacuum. They are made every single day based on imperfect information. Some bear fruit. Some do not. It's what makes them predictions. At this very moment, the seniors have exhausted their eligibility. On the other side of the spectrum, new signees have not run a single sprint or lifted a single pound under the tutelage of the UConn coaching staff and there are still at least 7 to come (If Edsall has his way). At the end of the day, neither group is effectively on the roster.

Put in real world terms, my Board votes on the next fiscal year's budget seven months in advance. Do you think my supervisor accepts my draft (which is done eight months in advance) without the accompanying assumptions? He might, but hasn't for the last six years I've been doing it.

 

[whaler11]

First of all, I predicted that the defense will be, "a little better than suck, but it won't be terrific either..." I did not proclaim that they will be top 15. I later amended that statement to accepting a below average D provided a reasonable uptick on offense. Secondly, I think that is a faulty premise. It seems you are assuming the defense for the three teams below UConn will definitely improve by comparison, while UConn languishes. What is that based on? Finally, UConn was 126 out of 129 FBS programs in total defense. They really can't get much worse...at least by comparison to their peers.

Predictions are not made in a vacuum. They are made every single day based on imperfect information. Some bear fruit. Some do not. It's what makes them predictions. At this very moment, the seniors have exhausted their eligibility. On the other side of the spectrum, new signees have not run a single sprint or lifted a single pound under the tutelage of the UConn coaching staff and there are still at least 7 to come (If Edsall has his way). At the end of the day, neither group is effectively on the roster.

Put in real world terms, my Board votes on the next fiscal year's budget seven months in advance. Do you think my supervisor accepts my draft (which is done eight months in advance) without the accompanying assumptions? He might, but hasn't for the last six years I've been doing it.

I'm not talking about the defense at is compares to 2017 East Carolina.

I'm talking about the 2018 UConn Defense against the 2017 UConn defense.

The 2017 defense stunk. It lost every good to decent player on the 2-deep.

What evidence in the history of college football freshman and in Randy Edsall recruiting classes allows one to make an assumption that the players will be better in 2018 than 2017. If the players aren't better how is the defense better?

 

[Husky25]

Sure - a bunch of guys who have never played a down of FBS football.

It’s an improved class. It’s not a class where 5 true freshman are better than what left.

They don't have to be. The sum of the 11 parts on the field in late August have to better than the sum of the 11 on the field last season.

 

[whaler11]

They don't have to be. The sum of the 11 parts on the field in late August have to better than the sum of the 11 on the field last season.

So you think it's safe to assume the defense is better because of intangibles while admitting the players aren't as good?

Okey dokey.

I guess I get why people find the need to have faith but I don't get why 7 years in a row of getting burned by it doesn't seem to impact them.

 

[History Geek]

I'm not talking about the defense at is compares to 2017 East Carolina.

I'm talking about the 2018 UConn Defense against the 2017 UConn defense.

The 2017 defense stunk. It lost every good to decent player on the 2-deep.

What evidence in the history of college football freshman and in Randy Edsall recruiting classes allows one to make an assumption that the players will be better in 2018 than 2017. If the players aren't better how is the defense better?

I grant your point we are going to have to replace some decent players, especially on the D line where I think the ceiling of the returnees is not as high as what we lost. However, it sounds like you are assuming that the ability of returning players will be static from Nov 2017 to late Aug 2018. I assume they will be a year more mature — more mature bodies, more mature skills, more mature football minds. If any incoming frosh are better than what is returning, that also likely means a better on field product. Finally, many of our conference mates have to replace more senior leadership than we do. Will all this be enough to see an improved record over 2017? I think so. Not a vast improvement, but an improvement.

 

[hardcorehusky]

Whaler- without relying on the incoming freshman or transfer- and just talking about the kids who are still left- do you think those guys will get better? Do you think a year older, more time in the weight room more time working on technique with the staff will help them be better players? If so, then that part of the defense will be better. Problem is -no one here including me, sees the D line as staying the same or better with the remaining players. The AAC throws, not runs so I am not worried about teams running all over us. It has and will be how we defend the pass that will determine our improvement.

 

[History Geek]

...I guess I get why people find the need to have faith but I don't get why 7 years in a row of getting burned by it doesn't seem to impact them.

Point well taken. Yes, I am firmly in wait and see mode after the past two coaching regimes. However, I have found being a “glass is half full” kind of guy is a more enjoyable way of livng my life .

 

[blue93]

The defense will be bad again. We can argue about how bad, but I think we can all agree it will be another bad year.

With that being said, I don't think it's a make or break year for the scheme. I don't think it mattered what scheme we ran this year, the players on the field weren't athletic enough to be effective at this level. Thanks red pants.

 

[whaler11]

I grant your point we are going to have to replace some decent players, especially on the D line where I think the ceiling of the returnees is not as high as what we lost. However, it sounds like you are assuming that the ability of returning players will be static from Nov 2017 to late Aug 2018. I assume they will be a year more mature — more mature bodies, more mature skills, more mature football minds. If any incoming frosh are better than what is returning, that also likely means a better on field product. Finally, many of our conference mates have to replace more senior leadership than we do. Will all this be enough to see an improved record over 2017? I think so. Not a vast improvement, but an improvement.

There are only a handful of players returning. Sure a couple of them will be better.

Randy Edsall has NEVER recruited classes that come in and make instant impacts.

Nor is the defensive line front 7 positions that lend themselves to youth.

The conference mates generally have better incoming classes and don’t have 2 years of lost recruiting classes.

I get that people don’t get how bleak things are in the near term so I’ll stop but this roster is still a full fledged disaster thanks to VV.

 

[whaler11]

Point well taken. Yes, I am firmly in wait and see mode after the past two coaching regimes. However, I have found being a “glass is half full” kind of guy is a more enjoyable way of livng my life .

That’s fine - but optimism for optimism’s sake doesn’t actually translate into wins.

 

[SubbaBub]

I'm struggling over the vapors people are having about losing personnel from the worst defense that we have ever seen here.

I'm confident the measurables of the starting 11 will be better next year. What we need is for them to be able to read, react, then make a freaking tackle.

Redrawing the scrabble tiles doesn't strike me as the main concern.

 

[Husky68]

I'm with the camp that says in general your defense is as good as the personnel plus or minus some relatively smaller factor of good or bad coaching. I'm sure Alabama could run a 3-3-5 defense pretty well and UConn would have run a 4-3-4 defense pretty poorly.

What I fail to understand (given my 1960's football experience) is what is this big difference given to the base scheme being 3-3-5? Not being stupid here (or maybe am) but the offense gets to pick the play and formation they use; defense has to react. Your offense goes 3 wide one side and my defense has to react to cover them and rest of players. How different will it be if my base is 3-3-5 vs 4-3-4 and what will the impact be on the success of my defense? Will I really line up 3 guys to rush or will one of the other players try to rush, how will that impact pressure on QB and time to pass and how long DB's must stay with receivers or cushions that DB's give, etc. Also, on running plays how do I place other than 3 lineman so that opposing offense does not overwhelm UConn at point of attack yet still cover potential misdirection plays and fake run to a pass? Do I go with just 6 in the box or do I line up 7 or 8 in the box and then drop some back as my defensive play call dictates (didn't seem to do much disguising like this)?

My "casual fan" take on UConn's defense was that the 3-3-5 defense was poorly implemented: base defense easy to pick apart by QB who could change plays at LOS and/or have decent accuracy passing, too many 3rd down defenses that gave up easy 1st downs (seemed had better luck defensively on 3rd and short where other team ran up middle), expecting DB's to cover forever and also trying to cover/tackle receivers that have been given too much cushion, some type of zone defense where any TE/RB going over middle was free for big gain. DB's on other teams make more plays on ball because they are nearer the receivers and also their defense puts pressure on QB's resulting in fewer "perfect" passes.

Guess this is over winded way of saying, yeah the players were not as good individually as would have liked but the coaching/schemes/play calls(especially given down and distance)/disguise of defense/cushion given WR's rather than helping offset some player deficiencies actually greatly magnified them.

 

[Hornet22]

That’s fine - but optimism for optimism’s sake doesn’t actually translate into wins.

Listen, we all know it’s way easier to adopt the most bleakest stance in sport then enjoy the opposite if it occurs. Trust me, if UConn surprises people next season there may be a few “I told you so’s” hurled at Whaler but he will ignore them and quietly (or publicly) enjoy what’s happening on the field. No harm no foul.
I respect optimism and pessimism alike in sport. There are so many factors involved in football that can change the trajectories of every team in every conference. I’m just excited about seeing these 19 create some competitive depth in practice. That’s how teams actually improve. Seems to me like the receivers on our team will have to work a little harder to make plays in practice. The RB’s will have more athletic people coming at them. The QB’s will have to fit balls into tighter windows than last year in practice. That’s what you want.
When the games roll around, who knows after that. But the team will definitely improve because practice will be more competitive.

 

[whaler11]

Listen, we all know it’s way easier to adopt the most bleakest stance in sport then enjoy the opposite if it occurs. Trust me, if UConn surprises people next season there may be a few “I told you so’s” hurled at Whaler but he will ignore them and quietly (or publicly) enjoy what’s happening on the field. No harm no foul.
I respect optimism and pessimism alike in sport. There are so many factors involved in football that can change the trajectories of every team in every conference. I’m just excited about seeing these 19 create some competitive depth in practice. That’s how teams actually improve. Seems to me like the receivers on our team will have to work a little harder to make plays in practice. The RB’s will have more athletic people coming at them. The QB’s will have to fit balls into tighter windows than last year in practice. That’s what you want.
When the games roll around, who knows after that. But the team will definitely improve because practice will be more competitive.

They might be better. As of right now there isn’t evidence that they will be.

If they are better I will gladly admit it and take whatever abuse anyone want to give me.

I don’t deal in faith. I know Edsall well enough that I am confident he’ll have them much improved in 2-3 years.

2018 shapes up to be a nightmare on defense.

 

[Hornet22]

They might be better. As of right now there isn’t evidence that they will be.

If they are better I will gladly admit it and take whatever abuse anyone want to give me.

I don’t deal in faith. I know Edsall well enough that I am confident he’ll have them much improved in 2-3 years.

2018 shapes up to be a nightmare on defense.

It’s actually the perfect stance with this team. If the defense sucks then you look like the ultimate prognosticator or Nostradamus-like. And if they’re good the pleasure of watching the turnaround will assuage any pain from the abuse you will get.

Competitive depth....That must come first before any turnaround.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

All this talk about optimism and pessimism. Any room for realism?

People may not like the way he delivers his message (unlike me), but he’s right a lot more than he’s wrong on the football. Other boards he’s clueless, but he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to football.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

It’s actually the perfect stance with this team. If the defense sucks then you look like the ultimate prognosticator or Nostradamus-like. And if they’re good the pleasure of watching the turnaround will assuage any pain from the abuse you will get.

Competitive depth....That must come first before any turnaround.

And if he’s right and the defense sucks again, people will call him a jerk and say he deals in pessimism.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

This year is make or break for UConn football overall. The team needs to make a bowl game, and improve its ranking significantly.

 

[Exit 4]

This year is make or break for UConn football overall. The team needs to make a bowl game, and improve its ranking significantly.

Time to rename yourself as Fan_on_the_fence or Bowl_or_Bust. Loyal? Ha!

 

[whaler11]

It’s actually the perfect stance with this team. If the defense sucks then you look like the ultimate prognosticator or Nostradamus-like. And if they’re good the pleasure of watching the turnaround will assuage any pain from the abuse you will get.

Competitive depth....That must come first before any turnaround.

I just call them like I see them. There is no strategy involved.

 

[Husky25]

So you think it's safe to assume the defense is better because of intangibles while admitting the players aren't as good?

Okey dokey.

I guess I get why people find the need to have faith but I don't get why 7 years in a row of getting burned by it doesn't seem to impact them.

That's not what I said. I don't know if the new players will be or won't be as good, but maybe they are a better fit for what the coaches want to do. The bodies most definitely need to be replaced. Can't field a team otherwise, but the remaining incumbents can help fill the gaps in productivity. I prefer to look at it as the Moneyball approach. I don't know if you read the book or watched the movie, but a basic tenet in both (disregarding the A's outstanding starting pitching at the time, which was glossed over in the movie) was not how to replace individual players, but how to replace their production. For example, Jason Giambi hit 38 of Oakland's 199 homeruns in 2001. Oakland as a team hit 205 in 2002. Johnny Damon had 165 of 1,469 hits in 2001. Oakland had only 19 fewer hits as a team in 2002, while winning one more game (103 in 2002 vs. 102 the previous year).

Bringing it back to UConn, there are other variables besides intangibles, but yes. Experience and comfort in their assignment does play a roll. Also most of the players who played their final game vs Cincinnati spent 3 or 4 years in different schemes, utilizing different techniques that presumably had to be either unlearned or used differently.

Regarding your last sentence: If that were true, you'd still see 38,000+ people in the stands. Personally, I am certainly more salty than I was 7 years ago, but the gameday experience does not only include time spent inside the confines of Rentschler Field. It also is an opportunity to spend 6 or 7 days in the fall with a bunch of friends who aren't able to get together nearly enough anymore.

 

[Hornet22]

All this talk about optimism and pessimism. Any room for realism?

People may not like the way he delivers his message (unlike me), but he’s right a lot more than he’s wrong on the football. Other boards he’s clueless, but he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to football.

Doesn’t bother me at all. Everyone is entitled to their sense of optimism, pessimism and realism.
But it’s all opinions/hypotheticals. I don’t buy the “but he knows football” stuff because knowledge of football does not bear any affect on the future outcome of any particular upcoming season. It’s guesswork that has a 50/50 chance of being correct. Im a Tampa fan and most people believed they were primed for the playoffs. Now they’re in danger of finishing 4-12. It’s all guesswork.