I get what your saying, but the revenue would be larger in a 16 team playoff versus an 8 team playoff. Also, I agree the non-power 5 would likely get access in an 8 team situation and if the 5 power conference teams got automatic berths that leaves only 3 at-larges, where if you go with the 11 conferences all get 1 berth that leaves 5 at-large berths.
In an 8 team playoff based on last year assuming all 5 power conference teams got berths it would be IMO
Rose Bowl- 1. Notre Dame vs. 8. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl- 4. Stanford vs. 5. Florida
Orange Bowl- 3. Georgia vs. 6. Florida State
Sugar Bowl- 2. Alabama vs. 7. Oregon
I think once the drip of an 8 team playoff occurs after the "plus 1" we will see a push for 16 under giving 11 conference champions and those two extra at-large bids. Maybe its modified and you earn an automatic bid by reaching certain bench marks over a period of time to protect the top conferences.
I see a 4 or 8 team playoff as producing the best competition and as being most profitable for college football. A 16 team playoff has the following unintended consequences:
1. Too many weeks of football for the players. Including a CCG and a game in Hawaii, a team could play 18 games in a season. This would create a season longer than the NFL. By the end of the season, the level of play would begin to slip due to injuries, wear and tear, and exhaustion.
2. Injuries. The extra weeks of football produce more injuries and affect the overall product. More soreness from more games creates greater risk of injury. These injuries also produce a greater risk to the athletes. We can argue about paying players or is the free education enough, but that is not the point. Playing a few extra games each year increases the risk of major injury to players that seek a career in the NFL.
3. Less time for studies. Again, we can argue that athletes are not students, but for the athletes that do take class serious this would be a few more weeks of games.
4. Games against lesser opponents. A 16 team playoff would likely include auto bids from leagues outside the Big 5. This may create games that hold less value. You can argue that the game is a bonus for TV, but you can also argue that two lesser opponents in a bowl game create a better game for TV than a pair of first round blowouts.
5. Star players may sit out. Good teams may rest star players and thus create an exibition game in the first round. Also, some star players may refuse to play so many extra games for fear of injury.
6. Players leave college earlier. Players will leave earier for the draft to avoid wear and tear and injury.
7. Less Bowl Games. If 16 teams make the playoff, then less teams make the bowl games. Bowl games are an end of the season event that creates good TV and fans travel for the final game. Playoffs do not have this atmosphere.
8. The best teams will not always win. We love the NCAA BB Tourney because of the upsets and storylines. For BB, this creates buzz and more revenue. For football, we all want the two best teams in the country playing for the championship. You can argue that teams ranked 3 and 4 could be ranked 1 or 2 in many years. At 8, you clearly have include the best 2 to 4 teams. But at 16, you just have more teams. I think you get the best national championship game by selecting 2 or 4 teams for the playoffs. At 8 teams you will not always get the best 2 teams, and at 16 its even less likely.
9. The regular season is less important. College football conferences sell TV rights for games. The games are worth a high value because every game is valuable. At 16 teams, conferences may lose value in the TV contracts.
10. Less Bowl Games. Bowl games make lots of money. A 4 or 8 team playoff, with 6 extra bowls is more valuable than a 16 team playoff without the bowls.
11. The Power Conferences do not want to share the access. At 16, they will have to share the access.
12. No turning back. I think a slow process to 4 and then 8 will allow the leagues to evaluate if it is more profitable. If they went to 16 this year, there would be no turning back even if it was a money loser.
There are many other reasons for staying at 2, 4, or 8 and there are many reasons to argue for 16 teams in a playoff. I am sure that many people on this board can argue for 16 teams, as it is a favorite idea for fans. But going to 16 may not be the most profitable and may do more harm than good.