This is how it will end...(spoiler: im talking about NIL)

[Jaydumo20]

For 20 years i was a professional musician/songwriter. I remember a meeting at RIAA (you know them as the entity that issues gold records): A regional CCO was telling me about Napsters effect on the industry (This was back in 2003).
Nobody, not them, not me, not all of you, not the record companies ever predicted the demolition of the music industry. Yeah, there are still some rich mega stars, but a livelihood was ripped from thousands of incredible musicians because someone "figured it out" and now music is free. (check out Gillian welch's song 'Everything is free' for a depressing and brilliant synopsis of the streaming effect).

Although we can't see it now: in the words of DH, these athletes "better get it now" because "it's coming".

Very soon there will be some kind of shift where not only NIL but even contracts in pro sports and earnings will start to plummet.

The thing that took the record industry down was the greed. $20 a c.d. at times.

Watching sports has become prohibitively expensive for many fans. Someone is already out there working on a way for us to access all this stuff legally and for free. I don't know what it is yet, but everything is cyclical. Without fail.

But don't fret. The games won't change and kids will still dream of being pro athletes. Because as Gillian said "They're gonna do it anyway, even if it doesn't pay"

 

[Tyler2Rings]

For 20 years i was a professional musician/songwriter. I remember a meeting at RIAA (you know them as the entity that issues gold records): A regional CCO was telling me about Napsters effect on the industry (This was back in 2003).
Nobody, not them, not me, not all of you, not the record companies ever predicted the demolition of the music industry. Yeah, there are still some rich mega stars, but a livelihood was ripped from thousands of incredible musicians because someone "figured it out" and now music is free. (check out Gillian welch's song 'Everything is free' for a depressing and brilliant synopsis of the streaming effect).

Although we can't see it now: in the words of DH, these athletes "better get it now" because "it's coming".

Very soon there will be some kind of shift where not only NIL but even contracts in pro sports and earnings will start to plummet.

The thing that took the record industry down was the greed. $20 a c.d. at times.

Watching sports has become prohibitively expensive for many fans. Someone is already out there working on a way for us to access all this stuff legally and for free. I don't know what it is yet, but everything is cyclical. Without fail.

But don't fret. The games won't change and kids will still dream of being pro athletes. Because as Gillian said "They're gonna do it anyway, even if it doesn't pay"

Not sure how this will apply to college sports but +1 for Gillian Welch reference

 

[Edward Sargent]

Sony sued Napster users, including my daughter, and basically shut down the "free music"

 

[Jaydumo20]

Sony sued Napster users, including my daughter, and basically shut down the "free music"

No way!'your daughter was one of them? That is horrible. They could've gotten everybody. I was a Sony artist for years. They ended up taking it on the chin.

 

[nomar]

Sony sued Napster users, including my daughter, and basically shut down the "free music"

It's not free but it's cheap. You pay Spotify or Apple a few bucks a month and have access to their entire databases. It has had a disastrous effect on the livelihood of musicians.

That said, BYU can't stream AJ Dybantsa. If they want him on the court, they have to pay him. And people aren't going to stop going to college football or basketball games. We already have the ability to watch it for free or low cost. But people still go because it's a different experience. (Compare and contrast to the non-difference between listening to a CD track vs an MP3 or AAC file.) Whether this will lead to some kind of backlash against NIL in college athletics and, if so, how, is up for debate, but I have no idea how this could possibly affect pro sports salaries. What is the relation? That it costs too much to go to a game?

 

[bendm]

as long as we're in the BE we should be more worried about revenue sharing than NIL

 

[Jaydumo20]

It's not free but it's cheap. You pay Spotify or Apple a few bucks a month and have access to their entire databases. It has had a disastrous effect on the livelihood of musicians.

That said, BYU can't stream AJ Dybantsa. If they want him on the court, they have to pay him. And people aren't going to stop going to college football or basketball games. We already have the ability to watch it for free or low cost. But people still go because it's a different experience. (Compare and contrast to the non-difference between listening to a CD track vs an MP3 or AAC file.) Whether this will lead to some kind of backlash against NIL in college athletics and, if so, how, is up for debate, but I have no idea how this could possibly affect pro sports salaries. What is the relation? That it costs too much to go to a game?

I honestly have no clue what it will be. It might not be technological, but more social like you say. It is unfathomable right now to even think of it given the popularity of college and pro sports and the giant contracts. But every industry, even sports, since the beginning of humanity has been a victim of these cycles in some form. and the fall has usually followed an egregious peak. If the sports industry knew what it was they'd prepare for it. But...as we know... they never think it'll happen to them

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The biggest threat to college sports is this…

 

[maxw]

Funny you should post this a day or two after Soto's nearly a billion dollar contract

People are tribal and they (we all here) will follow and root for their teams.

Music and sports are very different - sports are best enjoyed live while music can be listened to any time, any where. Broadcast contracts for sports are shooting through the roof, for all sports, all over the world.

The world is getting smaller, richer, and more connected. Inflation will drive up the prices of everything for a while.

Given the younger generation's lack of attention span and general interest in sports (they are more into video games), we may see a slow decline in attendance and viewership of many pro sports. But that's decades away.

 

[ColchVEGAS]

Given the younger generation's lack of attention span and general interest in sports (they are more into video games), we may see a slow decline in attendance and viewership of many pro sports. But that's decades away.

I think you nailed with the decline in attendance. Once that starts happening the revenue stream sinks and cannot support the lucrative contracts. Ticket prices go up, we complain, but ultimately those that want to be there will pay that price.

With music Napster, LimeWire, DC++, name any of the other platforms that existed, made it easy to get the same product without paying the price that was determined by the market to be too high.

Sports, as stated before, are different as you cannot get the same product for free. Once the market decides they will not pay the price to attend games the model will have to evolve.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

as long as we're in the BE we should be more worried about revenue sharing than NIL

Can we just have one "HATE THE BIG EAST" thread for the haters so they don't have to pollute every single thread on every board of the Boneyard?

 

[bendm]

Can we just have one "HATE THE BIG EAST" thread for the haters so they don't have to pollute every single thread on every board of the Boneyard?

it has nothing to do with hating the BE but everyone is missing the forest for the trees. what's the point of all these threads worrying about NIL when it's just part of the equation? how about posters discuss NIL in relation to how we will or wont overcome the impending revenue sharing gap? no one is even acknowledging it.

 

[mussels]

Market forces will continue increasing the cost of attending or watching on tv. In time, there will be fewer, but more invested, fans. We “beloved” casual fans will discover that we’re not really that “beloved”

 

[CashewCrew]

The biggest threat to college sports is this…

Here's my list of these 18 schools off the noggin':
Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Florida, LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Michigan, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Washington, USC

 

[Jaydumo20]

it has nothing to do with hating the BE but everyone is missing the forest for the trees. what's the point of all these threads worrying about NIL when it's just part of the equation? how about posters discuss NIL in relation to how we will or wont overcome the impending revenue sharing gap? no one is even acknowledging it.

I'm of the school that this is so in flux that none of it is solid. Even revenue sharing.
I think a lot of us think this our new reality. I don't.
2026 probably will look nothing like 2024 or what we think will happen in '25 for that matter. I have no evidence yet that they know what they are doing.

 

[BuffaloHusky]

The biggest threat to college sports is this…

I’m not even sure what this means. Is he saying Texas accounts for roughly 4% of TV ad revenue?

 

[Giddyup5]

Not disagreeing with you. But you claim everything is cyclical. Just asking, when has sports seen the cyclical downturn?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

it has nothing to do with hating the BE but everyone is missing the forest for the trees. what's the point of all these threads worrying about NIL when it's just part of the equation? how about posters discuss NIL in relation to how we will or wont overcome the impending revenue sharing gap? no one is even acknowledging it.

Do you really think you are the only person in the world that realizes that there may only be two, or even one, conferences at some point? Seriously, you think you are the only person that has realizes that?

 

[Jaydumo20]

Not disagreeing with you. But you claim everything is cyclical. Just asking, when has sports seen the cyclical downturn?

I think cyclical was a bad word. Bell curve is more like it. When we're in the middle of something it seems so solid. Like the NFL's dominance But that's gonna end too, and probably sooner than we think. But it won't drop off a cliff. Baseball's dominance didn't vanish it just kinda melted.
You can't point to a stat, or a trend. Things just reach a height and come down. Nothing is immune. Players salaries will drop

 

[Stinger92860]

That said, BYU can't stream AJ Dybantsa. If they want him on the court, they have to pay him. And people aren't going to stop going to college football or basketball games.

That said people don’t stream AJ they stream BYU, UConn, Duke, Michigan, etc. Does Rudy get made into a movie if Rudy went to URI. It’s the team, but I could be wrong.