This has come up before... but UConn line is out and it's (+17, -118) on at least one site

[whaler11]

You think the recent suspensions announced by BYU will drop it at all?

Nah would have happened already. There aren't many individual college players who move lines. Especially non-quarterbacks.

 

[FDNY99]

Nah would have happened already. There aren't many individual college players who move lines. Especially non-quarterbacks.

Thanks

 

[whaler11]

Thanks

I do think it somewhat limits the line going past 17.

 

[Confident Carl]

Here's the thing with a new coach and a new system...you just don't know. Everything feels like it is going to be much better and my gut tells me UConn 2014 will be more intense, in better shape, and overall superior to UConn 20011-13. But the big questions are:
1) Will it take a few weeks for the new approach to take hold? (This happens a lot)
2) Does Diaco actually know what he is doing or is just really good at talking a game?(I don't think so, but until he shows it in an actual game it is an unknown)
3) Was the hole we were in so deep it will take a while to get out? (This is a real question for me. For example I think Pasqualoni loaded up on Connecticut kids to the exclusion of other players just like his high school coach buddies hoped he would. It scares me is looking at a roster that is loaded with local kids in key spots. Unlike some here I don't love Connectciut players in so many skill positions...linemen, sure. Quarterback, back up quarterback, tight end,back up tight end, running back...not so much).
Vegas wants you to bet with your gut.

Regarding CT players in skill positions, Cochran and Boyle were Players of the year in CT. Remember, we did have Michael Box, PA
Michael Nebrick, VA, Richard Lagow, TX and Kivon Taylor, GA. All of these guys saw the handwriting on the wall and all have moved on.
Box had a great career at DII Indiana PA and was invited to mini camp by the Washington Red Skins. http://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/news/2014/may/14/collins-hill-grad-box-to-join-redskins-for-rookie/
Nebrick is breaking all kinds of records at Fordham and winning big! http://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/news/2014/may/14/collins-hill-grad-box-to-join-redskins-for-rookie/
Lagow is working his way up the depth chart at OK State
Not sure what Kivon Taylor is doing and Whitmer is from GA.
As you say both tight ends are from CT. Of the running backs Max and Arkeel are from CT but Mariner, VA, Clax, NJ, and Johnson, FL are not. None of the wide outs except Noel Thomas is from CT. Of our Defense, only Ormsby and Stewart are from CT. I don't quite understand the fear factor! You want to keep your best in state kids in the house for future recruiting, after all, we are UCONN. I like the fact that Diaco has clearly defined the footprint but frankly, I don't believe it is all that different from Pasqualoni's who coached for the Cowboys and talked about picking up TX kids. As a matter of fact Pasqualoni passed up on a prize CT kid, Tyler Matekavich, ST. Joe's Trumbull, CT. He lead the nation in tackles for Temple last year and is an All American candidate. UCONN seems to have a good deal of players from a fairly wide area. Frankly, I don't see the deep hole.

 

[BlueMAB]

Can anyone tell me why the line is fishy? Anyone? Honest question.

 

[UConnDan97]

Can anyone tell me why the line is fishy? Anyone? Honest question.

It's fishy because you normally don't make the winning team a 17 point underdog.

Here's the math:

UConn will shock the world.
Las Vegas is in the world.
Therefore UConn will shock Las Vegas.

And I love math...

 

[Jimdish255]

If we don't fumble a punt or a kickoff inside the 10 yard line, we cover. Outside of specials I don't see how we aren't highly improved on offense and more fit on defense for four quarters. Move the chains needs to be the motto this year. This one could be on the tacklers not to give up the big play.

 

[CAHUSKY]

I think the line moves in Uconns direction and you see it kickoff at +16 or +15.5. You're already seeing 16 at stations. . I never bet Uconn but lost my mind today and made a little wager on the good guys getting 17. No way we lose by more than that at home w byu traveling across country in the first game of the season.

 

[whaler11]

Of course anytime the Boneyard completely agrees on anything the opposite happens.....

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

I too already have a fairly large play in on UCONN. I was successful last year in going against our guys when they played on the road, even though I didn't like it, so I'm not a homer. I just really don't feel a BYU blowout because it's our home opener, they're traveling across country and have a fair amount of suspended players for the game. I think the crowd and team will be fired up to keep it close through most of the game. Rentschler Field has quietly been one of the better home field advantages in the NCAA. Look at last year, in our train wreck Pasqualoni era, how UCONN performed as a home dog:

Maryland +4.5 L 21-32 L
Michigan +18.5 L 21-24 W
Louisville +27.5 L 10-31 W
Rutgers +2.5 W 28-17 W
Memphis +1.5 W 41-10 W

UCONN was a home dog 5 times last year and covered in 4 of them. UCONN covered both large spreads (Michigan and Louisville) and in two very different environments. Michigan was a boisterous raucous environment, as we all know, and UCONN actually had that game won outright. Louisville was played in front of a quiet, cold and very sparse crowd that had given up on the season. What this points to is that the players themselves can create their own energy, or at least enough energy, to keep a game close without a boisterous crowd.

I think the BYU game will go down like this: good crowd, just short of a sellout (probably a little over 38K). Loud and fired up. UCONN players feed off it in the first half and the game seesaws back and forth, while the lead never grows larger than 7 points either way. Second half starts, the normal 1-2K casuals head out to the parking lots to re-begin their tailgate and the team hangs it in for another quarter. BYU's tempo starts to take its toll in the 2nd half and they're able to pull away late in the 4th as another 1K casuals follow their halftime casuals' lead. BYU wins by 10. The game is close throughout and our young Huskies gain a boatload of confidence from this game heading into their tune-up win against Stony Brook.

In summary: take the points. This might be the play of week 1 for you gamers out there.

OK...betting against your team is just bad form. If I don't think UConn is a good bet....I just don't bet at all. Bad karma to bet and against your team and profit from their failure.

 

[J187Money]

OK...betting against your team is just bad form. If I don't think UConn is a good bet....I just don't bet at all. Bad karma to bet and against your team and profit from their failure.

I disagree. What happens, happens. If I have a better idea how my team will perform than the line? I will bet accordingly no matter which side.

Better to profit from their failure than to wallow in it with an empty pocket.

 

[whaler11]

I disagree. What happens, happens. If I have a better idea how my team will perform than the line? I will bet accordingly no matter which side.

Better to profit from their failure than to wallow in it with an empty pocket.

Agreed. I'm happy to lose the money if they don't cover, but if Maryland for example is going to win easy may as well get paid to sit through it.

 

[J187Money]

Agreed. I'm happy to lose the money if they don't cover, but if Maryland for example is going to win easy may as well get paid to sit through it.

When the Yankees were rolling, I used to place series bets on them in the playoffs. If the Yankees lost, I was happy to lose the money. If they won? At least I got paid for my misery.

 

[huskysupporter]

Why do you see a 24 point loss? Not flaming, asking for your observations.

No problem. I hope I am 100 % wrong and UCONN wins by 24.

I am speaking as a gambler:

UCONN ' S offense is shaky on paper. They had arguably the worst offensive line in football last year. aside from the last 3 games against horrid defenses, QB play was poor. The run game was non existent. The poor offense on paper should be handled by the BYU defense that is without an all American linebacker but has talent.

Uconn ' s defense was extremely soft up the middle and generated no pass rush. Giving BYU ' S Heisman candidate qb time could spell disaster.

The reason I am staying away: The atmosphere at the Rent at a night game is insane. BYU is going to be shocked by the crowd noise. Historically, UCONN also plays close games at home when they lose. Bob Diaco might be the second coming of Knute Rockne.

I will be wearing my uconn football shirt in Vegas, demanding the sports book show the game. Last time I was in vegas and uconn was a big underdog? Notre Dame game. This has to bring good luck, right?

 

[tduconn]

Agree with Freescooter and Samcro. Too many unknows on UConn starting the season.

Coach BD says a lot of positive things, and very well may have the players energized. But for positive praise that has been passed out in preseason commentary, that offered for the QB position does not carry the same energy as what BD has offered for players in other positions. Nothing close to "the best he's ever seen at that position" when referencing the signal callers. It's more like " I don't think any of them will cause us to lose".

Their psyche may be better in practice, but what happens if they quickly find themselves in a deep hole.....or if BYU is "unstoppable". Does the old "losing mentality" return to bury the positives of preseason hype and work? I hope not!

BYU is a seasoned team, and they've traveled large distances before to play competitively against more established and experienced programs. Their depth will cover the loss of a couple of players.

BD may have a plan in place to improve the program, but it may take some time beyond the BYU game.

But I'll still be there throughout the season.....regardless.

 

[BlueMAB]

BYU isn't a seasoned team. They are 0-0.

They haven't traveled anywhere to play anyone yet. Whatever their program has done in the past will have absolutely no bearing on what happens August 29th.

 

[freescooter]

Could happen. 17 is a lot of wood to lay on the road against a team that has been an excellent home dog though. Even as bad as they were last year they covered against Michigan, Louisville and Rutgers as a dog.

It hasn't moved yet but it will draw a lot of late money being a national tv game on a slow night... but a 3+ swing is unlikely unless something major happens injury wise. I'd guess it closes 16 or 16.5.

Agree though I would say that most of the time I'd take 27.5 like the Louisville game. I think you have to discount that kind of game. A 3 td plus lead going into the 4th quarter means both sides have lots of scubs playing so thing can get pretty unpredictable. But Michigan and Rutgers were absolutely legitimate.

 

[freescooter]

I have to agree with tduconn on this one. As I said, lots of unknowns. And one of the things that scares me is that we don't know what happens if something goes wrong or we get a bad break. Do they cowboy up so to speak, or do they Pasqualoni down into a woe is us mentality? That is part of my point that it sometimes takes a while for teams to turn around under a new coach. I think it is very possible that come late October this team will be better and tougher. Whether it will be in August is still open to question.

 

[Dooley]

OK...betting against your team is just bad form. If I don't think UConn is a good bet....I just don't bet at all. Bad karma to bet and against your team and profit from their failure.

To each is own, I guess. I'm fine if I lose money and UCONN pulls through. But c'mon, last year was God awful. I might as well pay for my season tickets.

 

[huskysupporter]

BYU isn't a seasoned team. They are 0-0.

They haven't traveled anywhere to play anyone yet. Whatever their program has done in the past will have absolutely no bearing on what happens August 29th.

I think it is fair to look at what both teams return.

 

[huskysupporter]

I have to agree with tduconn on this one. As I said, lots of unknowns. And one of the things that scares me is that we don't know what happens if something goes wrong or we get a bad break. Do they cowboy up so to speak, or do they Pasqualoni down into a woe is us mentality? That is part of my point that it sometimes takes a while for teams to turn around under a new coach. I think it is very possible that come late October this team will be better and tougher. Whether it will be in August is still open to question.

Love that they are playing BYU Just wish it wasn't game 1. As a gambler, too many unknowns for me to touch this game.

I love taking first half spreads with the heavy favorite.

 

[BlueMAB]

I think it is fair to look at what both teams return.

Sure, looking at what both teams return is fair.

But I view comments like this as being specious:

"BYU is a seasoned team, and they've traveled large distances before to play competitively against more established and experienced programs."

Coaches and players decide games, not how "established" a program is. Unless I'm misunderstanding his comment, it sounds like the attitude that ND should have beaten us because they are ND. South Carolina should have beaten us because they're an SEC team, etc.

 

[whaler11]

Sure, looking at what both teams return is fair.

But I view comments like this as being specious:

"BYU is a seasoned team, and they've traveled large distances before to play competitively against more established and experienced programs."

Coaches and players decide games, not how "established" a program is. Unless I'm misunderstanding his comment, it sounds like the attitude that ND should have beaten us because they are ND. South Carolina should have beaten us because they're an SEC team, etc.

They also travelled a long distance last year for.... Virginia - that went swimmingly.

 

[Confident Carl]

It's fishy because you normally don't make the winning team a 17 point underdog.

Here's the math:

UConn will shock the world.
Las Vegas is in the world.
Therefore UConn will shock Las Vegas.

And I love math...

We can't lose - Diaco is actually part Siberian Husky! Look at those eyes! the eyes have it!

 

[Chief00]

I usually leave gambling up to the gamblers. My only insight is it's tough to play at fast game speed the first game with a new system. The counter weight is the enthusiasm is exponentially higher than under Coach P & D.