This has come up before... but UConn line is out and it's (+17, -118) on at least one site

[Yawin4Heisman]

this just feels like a very favorable line... and I see it coming down from 17... since the 2009 season just 2 losses by more than 17 at home (one to Rutgers by 18 at the end of 2011 and one to Louisville by 21 last year)... I don't get it but my buddy is staying far away from it...

 

[TheDogPound]

vegas is always onto something. somethings fishy here.

but that being said. I'll still probably take the points

 

[huskysupporter]

I will be in vegas for the game and I am not touching it. My brain says byu will win by 24, but new regime, fired up home crowd, I could see uconn covering.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

Curious to hear what whaler and the other degens think about the line?

 

[Stinger92860]

I will be in vegas for the game and I am not touching it. My brain says byu will win by 24, but new regime, fired up home crowd, I could see uconn covering.

Why do you see a 24 point loss? Not flaming, asking for your observations.

 

[J187Money]

Take the points.

 

[whaler11]

Curious to hear what whaler and the other degens think about the line?

I already have a play in on +17 as I am afraid it will drop off that number.

All the obvious angles are baked into the 17. Home field, night game, BYU across country etc.

The one piece that we may have more insight into than most people is just how poorly coached this team was for three years.

 

[uc1974]

Vegas is the least accurate at the beginning of the college FB season and with teams outside the top 25. If you are very knowledgeable about a few teams you can often do well.

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

I agree it feels fishy as well... I still feel I have to take 17 points though at the Rent given the history there and the history ATS in general (particularly the non-HCPP years)...

 

[BlueMAB]

What is fishy about the line? Too high or too low?

I think it's just about right considering the team's reputation, but I'm taking the points. We're going to be a much better team this year. As whaler said, most people don't understand just how terrible the prior head coach was.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

I put 50 bucks on us. I think we have it in us to lose by less than 17. That's Husky faith right there.

 

[uconndogs]

On paper this is all BYU by a lot. That said, there is a lot of unknowns about UCONN not the least of which is the coaching change to a group that hopefully believes it's a good idea to hit someone during a football game as opposed the prior regime of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumber.

 

[Colt house75]

I already have a play in on +17 as I am afraid it will drop off that number.

All the obvious angles are baked into the 17. Home field, night game, BYU across country etc.

The one piece that we may have more insight into than most people is just how poorly coached this team was for three years.

Whaler, for what it's worth...
I think it going in the opposite direction, given first game and all....
National money is on BYU & not knowing what we know .....I am hoping its at 20 to 24 by game time.
I'm going to hold off on any plays until I see the trend by next Friday.

 

[freescooter]

Here's the thing with a new coach and a new system...you just don't know. Everything feels like it is going to be much better and my gut tells me UConn 2014 will be more intense, in better shape, and overall superior to UConn 20011-13. But the big questions are:
1) Will it take a few weeks for the new approach to take hold? (This happens a lot)
2) Does Diaco actually know what he is doing or is just really good at talking a game?(I don't think so, but until he shows it in an actual game it is an unknown)
3) Was the hole we were in so deep it will take a while to get out? (This is a real question for me. For example I think Pasqualoni loaded up on Connecticut kids to the exclusion of other players just like his high school coach buddies hoped he would. It scares me is looking at a roster that is loaded with local kids in key spots. Unlike some here I don't love Connectciut players in so many skill positions...linemen, sure. Quarterback, back up quarterback, tight end,back up tight end, running back...not so much).
Vegas wants you to bet with your gut.

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

I think the line will shrink. As the smart betters get in on the action and they see cross country travel, new coach and fired up home crowd, BYU missing WR and RB, I think they will be grabbing it at 17.

I will also be in Vegas and I am hoping the line is still 17 when I get out there....love it if it went up, but I think it will go down.

 

[PRHusky]

this just feels like a very favorable line... and I see it coming down from 17... since the 2009 season just 2 losses by more than 17 at home (one to Rutgers by 18 at the end of 2011 and one to Louisville by 21 last year)... I don't get it but my buddy is staying far away from it...

FYI, in 2011, we smoked Rutgers by 18 at home and it was not even that close.

 

[uconnlife]

3-3 last year on the road, biggest win was by 17 over Utah State. Take the points!

 

[BoatShow]

this just feels like a very favorable line... and I see it coming down from 17... since the 2009 season just 2 losses by more than 17 at home (one to Rutgers by 18 at the end of 2011 and one to Louisville by 21 last year)... I don't get it but my buddy is staying far away from it...

You mean Cincy in 2011?

 

[Waquoit]

What's the money line? Sydney or the bush!

 

[Yawin4Heisman]

You mean Cincy in 2011?

we lost by 17 to Cincy in 2012... I just screwed up on the Rutgers score in 2011 - was rushing through past scores... we won by 18 as was noted... shame on me since I was there ha

so in the last 5 seasons at home we've only lost 1 game (Louisville with Bridgewater) by more than 17 points... Rent is such a huge home field advantage at night... Just ask RGIII. I don't think Vegas has that fully accounted for this... it will be energized by the start of the Diaco era

 

[SAMCRO]

I'm witholding until a starting QB is named. If it is CC, I would take the points. If not CC, then I'm staying away all together. This team/staff is just such an unkown coming into this season. Agreeing with freescooter's point that we will be better overall, but it may take a few weeks to get there. CANNOT F'NG WAIT!

 

[freescooter]

Whaler, for what it's worth...
I think it going in the opposite direction, given first game and all....
National money is on BYU & not knowing what we know .....I am hoping its at 20 to 24 by game time.
I'm going to hold off on any plays until I see the trend by next Friday.

If this gets to 20, no question you take the points even with the unknowns.

 

[FDNY99]

I already have a play in on +17 as I am afraid it will drop off that number.

All the obvious angles are baked into the 17. Home field, night game, BYU across country etc.

The one piece that we may have more insight into than most people is just how poorly coached this team was for three years.

You think the recent suspensions announced by BYU will drop it at all?

 

[Dooley]

I too already have a fairly large play in on UCONN. I was successful last year in going against our guys when they played on the road, even though I didn't like it, so I'm not a homer. I just really don't feel a BYU blowout because it's our home opener, they're traveling across country and have a fair amount of suspended players for the game. I think the crowd and team will be fired up to keep it close through most of the game. Rentschler Field has quietly been one of the better home field advantages in the NCAA. Look at last year, in our train wreck Pasqualoni era, how UCONN performed as a home dog:

Maryland +4.5 L 21-32 L
Michigan +18.5 L 21-24 W
Louisville +27.5 L 10-31 W
Rutgers +2.5 W 28-17 W
Memphis +1.5 W 41-10 W

UCONN was a home dog 5 times last year and covered in 4 of them. UCONN covered both large spreads (Michigan and Louisville) and in two very different environments. Michigan was a boisterous raucous environment, as we all know, and UCONN actually had that game won outright. Louisville was played in front of a quiet, cold and very sparse crowd that had given up on the season. What this points to is that the players themselves can create their own energy, or at least enough energy, to keep a game close without a boisterous crowd.

I think the BYU game will go down like this: good crowd, just short of a sellout (probably a little over 38K). Loud and fired up. UCONN players feed off it in the first half and the game seesaws back and forth, while the lead never grows larger than 7 points either way. Second half starts, the normal 1-2K casuals head out to the parking lots to re-begin their tailgate and the team hangs it in for another quarter. BYU's tempo starts to take its toll in the 2nd half and they're able to pull away late in the 4th as another 1K casuals follow their halftime casuals' lead. BYU wins by 10. The game is close throughout and our young Huskies gain a boatload of confidence from this game heading into their tune-up win against Stony Brook.

In summary: take the points. This might be the play of week 1 for you gamers out there.

 

[whaler11]

Whaler, for what it's worth...
I think it going in the opposite direction, given first game and all....
National money is on BYU & not knowing what we know .....I am hoping its at 20 to 24 by game time.
I'm going to hold off on any plays until I see the trend by next Friday.

Could happen. 17 is a lot of wood to lay on the road against a team that has been an excellent home dog though. Even as bad as they were last year they covered against Michigan, Louisville and Rutgers as a dog.

It hasn't moved yet but it will draw a lot of late money being a national tv game on a slow night... but a 3+ swing is unlikely unless something major happens injury wise. I'd guess it closes 16 or 16.5.