Things can always be worse... (link)

[frankthetank]

The state of Connecticut would be #20 or #21 and UConn dominates Connecticut far more than UCF or USF dominate their markets. UCF and USF are both #3 or #4 in their local markets.

Also, both the Tampa and Orlando DMAs cover about 10,000 square miles each. The whole state of Connecticut is 5,500 square miles. In terms of population within a given distance of the stadium, UConn has USF and UCF beat handily.

In a vacuum, UConn is much more valuable as a school compared to USF and UCF. UConn is a flagship school near 2 major markets (NYC and Boston) with elite basketball programs.

However, conference realignment doesn't exist in a vacuum. Therefore, UConn shouldn't underestimate USF and UCF any more than it underestimated Louisville in the race for the last ACC spot (which I completely believe is what happened with your president and AD). The Big 12 is actually the most pure on-the-field football-focused power conference when it comes to realignment decisions. Even the SEC added Texas A&M and Missouri for a grander demographic household-based expansion regardless of on-the-field results. In contrast, the Big 12 backfilled with West Virginia and TCU, neither of whom added a lick of TV markets but both had a ton of recent top level on-the-field football success. That is ALL that the Big 12 cares about (because that is ALL that the University of Texas cares about).

UCF brought some on-field success last year, while USF hasn't lived up to its potential when the old Big East gave them a lifeline nearly a decade ago. The thing that both UCF and USF bring to the table, though, is the best pound-for-pound football recruiting region in the country. The state of Florida (and specifically the southern half of Florida that encompasses Orlando, Tampa and Miami) is both huge in terms of sheer numbers of top football players AND on a per capita basis (as Florida produces FBS recruits at a higher per capita rate than even Texas while completely smoking California). Those metro areas are still growing like crazy, as well. Yet, the state only has 3 power conference teams (Florida, Florida State and Miami). It can easily support as many as the state of Texas (which has 5).

The SEC schools are now seeing the power of combining the Florida and Texas recruiting areas into a single power conference (both of which are also rapidly expanding markets for TV purposes, so there is some correlated off-the-field business upsdie). It's not crazy that the Big 12 might like to do the same, especially since the only thing that the conference is hanging its power hat on is pure football prowess.

Schools like UConn, Cincinnati and BYU should want more conference realignment happen FAST (meaning within the next 3 to 5 years) while they still have more of a tradition-based advantage. Any longer than that can allow for well-located schools in recruiting hotbeds like UCF and USF to build up their reputations further and become much more attractive if the round of conference realignment isn't until a decade from now.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Frank may be right, and I think UCF now has some real appeal. It's also a better school than USF and is improving. That being said, I think football is about maxed out. I sense a shift in media values that will not bring basketball in line, but will close the gap. We will see what the coming contracts bring. In the same way that sports values escalated vs. regular TV programming due to its resistance to the DVR effect, I think networks will begin to value the quantity of such programming available with basketball more highly, and its availability all week long.

When that becomes clear, there is no chance that UConn doesn't move to the top of the list. Let's see who figures it out fist.

 

[mike012]

I used to be a crazy rabid college football fan.. I would watch games all Saturday...........but........The whole SEC thing is making college football old. It will become just like major pro sports which get old after a while since the same teams are always there. If you don't have some kind of diversity things get stale..outside of the south no one will care in 10 years about football anyway. Oh great we get to see Alabama play again oh yipeee.... Auburn is there again.... Yes Mississippi is there too...... Oh wait the cooking channel has an iron chef show on. I will check those games out in the 4th quarter with 10 minutes left when I might actually give a care....... The NFL figured it out long ago when they started there crazy salary cap. If you don't give everyone a chance... only 5% of the population will care.

 

[Kolumbo]

I agree that the longer CR sleeps, the worse it gets for UCONN. Big 12 would be smart to go all in after Florida State, Clemson, and a few other football powers because it is all about football. Regardless of the cost. If Big 12 is going after Florida, it's going to be Florida State or Miami.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Frank may be right, and I think UCF now has some real appeal. It's also a better school than USF and is improving. That being said, I think football is about maxed out. I sense a shift in media values that will not bring basketball in line, but will close the gap. We will see what the coming contracts bring. In the same way that sports values escalated vs. regular TV programming due to its resistance to the DVR effect, I think networks will begin to value the quantity of such programming available with basketball more highly, and its availability all week long.

When that becomes clear, there is no chance that UConn doesn't move to the top of the list. Let's see who figures it out fist.

The problem with this premise is timing from a UConn perspective. You say we will see what the upcoming contracts bring but other than the Big Ten everyone else is locked in to a long term deal.

The Big Ten will break the bank regardless for any number of reasons, but primarily because there will likely be a bidding war between FOX & ESPN. If the Big Ten does not see a reason to expand prior to the upcoming negotiations it is unlikely that we see any more CR movement until the ACC & B12 contracts come close to expiring.

This is the worst possible situation for UConn. The exit fees will dry up soon & making $2MM per yr when our local competition are making 10-20 times that amount will be extremely difficult to overcome. Even if Aresco can somehow squeeze more money out of ESPN it's not going to significantly close the gap. Also, as Frank said, it gives other schools like UCF additional time to build their athletic departments into something that is desirable to a conference if/when the decision is made to expand

 

[upstater]

We've played a lot of these second tier schools now for over a decade, schools like Louisville, USF, Syracuse, Pitt, etc.

UConn plays .500 ball against these teams.

After seeing so much of these teams and the talent on the field, I don't think they have a talent advantage. Louisville and USF and UCF are southern.

But they are not putting more players in the NFL.

People overrate this southern angle. Clearly there are a lot more good football players down there, but the region is picked over so that the underrecruited players in the northeast are just as good as those left behinds in the south, especially in Florida where EVERYONE is seen.

If this weren't so, we wouldn't see UConn go .500 against USF and Louisville. We wouldn't see UConn beat teams like South Carolina in bowls.

Can UConn compete with Oklahoma, Florida St. and Georgia? That's a whole other order altogether.

 

[metsfan2323]

The thing that both UCF and USF bring to the table, though, is the best pound-for-pound football recruiting region in the country. The state of Florida (and specifically the southern half of Florida that encompasses Orlando, Tampa and Miami) is both huge in terms of sheer numbers of top football players AND on a per capita basis (as Florida produces FBS recruits at a higher per capita rate than even Texas while completely smoking California). Those metro areas are still growing like crazy, as well. Yet, the state only has 3 power conference teams (Florida, Florida State and Miami). It can easily support as many as the state of Texas (which has 5).

I think the Florida recruiting angle is garbage. If the B12 elevates two Florida schools haven't they just created more competition for Florida's top recruits? A Florida recruit on his way to TCU might decide to stay home and go to UCF if its the same league.

Adding UCONN would bring a lot of sizzle to the B12's basketball season, and bring B12 football to NYC. UCF/USF doesn't offer any sizzle at all.

Have the Florida Gators improved their Texas recruiting since Texas A&M has been added to the SEC? I would bet any increase has been nominal.

 

[metsfan2323]

The SEC schools are now seeing the power of combining the Florida and Texas recruiting areas into a single power conference (both of which are also rapidly expanding markets for TV purposes, so there is some correlated off-the-field business upsdie). It's not crazy that the Big 12 might like to do the same, especially since the only thing that the conference is hanging its power hat on is pure football prowess.

The Florida Gators have recruited Zero Texas players in the last 4 years. Zip, Zero, Nada.

 

[UMass]

Until the day comes that UMASS gets a B1G invite to seal off eastern expansion.

C'mon...was that necessary?

 

[Dooley]

C'mon...was that necessary?

No. I'm sorry. I often deflect anger/frustration through humor. Sometimes, my humor hurts the ones I love. Or, in your case, the ones I'm cool with as long as you don't get into the B1G before UCONN does.

 

[amory]

Of course it can get worse. No use worrying about it though. All we can do is improve (academically, on the field, and facility-wise) and wait.

 

[UMass]

No. I'm sorry. I often deflect anger/frustration through humor. Sometimes, my humor hurts the ones I love. Or, in your case, the ones I'm cool with as long as you don't get into the B1G before UCONN does.

Actually, it was pretty funny. And for the record, if UMass were to get in before UConn it's time to blow up the entire system and begin again because something will have gone terribly wrong. Sounds kinda like Seinfeld's bizzaro-world!

 

[Pudge]

Frank may be right. Frank may be wrong. The everchanging CR world has fascinating variables.

Accretive. The B12 is not taking four or any Schools unless they can ADD enough revenue to justify another payout of $25m a year. Only BYU in my view gets them there. Sure ... Renegotiating rights with ESPN or other cable seems to raise stakes; but, none of the UCF, ECU or USF discussion moves to needle on the face of the strategy. There has to be some exogenous variable. Something that says we NEED more programming. I understand the argument for Florida recruiting markets; Eastern playmates for WVU; and Texas likes & dislikes. I just don't see those being the lever to start a tide to more CR.

The notion that UConn's President or AD underestimated Louisville or the ACC process is BS. They were both new at that moment; a distinct disadvantage in the process versus Jurich & his counterpart. But, the BIG issue is our Football pedigree. Too new. Not enough time on a bigger stage. And Clemson & FSU thinking (plus Syracuse & BC ignorance) won the day. We clearly have far mor Brand potential than Louisville or Syracuse or BC or Pitt. The ACC has repeatedly targeted the wrong component; the B1G has not.

The BIG factor that bugs me: UConn is actually damn good as an AD. We can outProgram most any of these schools. We WIN championships. I'd bet on that versus Rutgers or some of these others.

 

[pj]

Accretive. The B12 is not taking four or any Schools unless they can ADD enough revenue to justify another payout of $25m a year. Only BYU in my view gets them there. Sure ... Renegotiating rights with ESPN or other cable seems to raise stakes; but, none of the UCF, ECU or USF discussion moves to needle on the face of the strategy. There has to be some exogenous variable. Something that says we NEED more programming. I understand the argument for Florida recruiting markets; Eastern playmates for WVU; and Texas likes & dislikes. I just don't see those being the lever to start a tide to more CR.

Yes. They are being overpaid in the current deal. No addition can bring in $25 mn per year. So they have to wait until the current TV deal expires, payouts go down, and then additions have a chance. If they go to a conference network, then large markets like Florida, Mormons, and New England have more luster. Also, B12 contract expires about the same time as the ACC contract ... will be some instability then opening up options. Schools like Texas will wait for this time frame to see what they are offered.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

ECU and UCF illustrate the "flavor of the day" mentality of the media. A bit of football success and you become the hot toy. But I doubt serious decision-makers are going to be swayed by that.

I infer that John Swofford and the ACC aren't serious decision makers. I agree.