Thin coaching pipeline?

[Vowelguy]

Another way to frame the question: how long does it take for a coach to show that they’re great?

Or maybe the answer is as long as it takes.

 

[visitingcock]

My question was poorly formed.

What I asking is not so much who will be the next 'top' coaches, but will any of them be 'great'? And if there are fewer great coaches, what does that do for the game and player development?

I know that every generation thinks their era is the best never to be reproduced, and that my question can be discounted on that basis.
But the fact that none of the younger generation has really broken through by their 40s seems notable.

It could be that the overall quality of coaches and players has improved so it's harder to ascend early. Or that with the W and foreign leagues, ex-players are getting a later start.

My opinion?

Well , I divide coaches into two categories. First, there are the great coaches who led schools to elite blue blood levels by achieving certain bright lines (1) either 3 national championships or 2 championships with 5 championship game appearances AND (2) a “decade of greatness” meaning ten or more consecutive years of reaching at least the sweet 16. Only Barmore, Pat, Geno, Tara, Kim, Muffet and Dawn have achieved that!

Then, there are the Excellent coaches who have put together (1) more than one appearance in the national championship AND (2) “ a decade of relevance” meaning ten or more years of reaching the NCAA tournament AND reaching the Sweet 16 at least 6 of those years. Examples are Joe Ciampi (Auburn), Andy Landers (UGA), Brenda Frieze (Maryland), Vic Schaefer (MSST and Texas) , Jeff Walz (Louisville). There are probably others because I have not done an exhaustive search. Linda Sharp at USC? Gail Goestenkors at Duke? Jody Conradt at Texas? Sylvia Hatchell at UNC?

As you can see, it takes at least ten years of coaching to qualify as either a “great” or “excellent” coach ( for me). The young Turks like mark Campbell or Kim Caldwell need more years to attain the proper achievements. Coaches like Neil Ivey, Cori Close, Joe Brooks etc etc are working on their resumes.

 

[SoonrFan]

Coach	Years as HC	Overall Record (exact)	Record at P4 School	NCAA Tourney Record @ P4/5 School
Jennie Baranczyk (Drake → Oklahoma)	14 seasons (4 yrs @ P4)	293‑130 (.693)	101-34 (.748)	5-4
Kenny Brooks (James Madison → Virginia Tech → Kentucky)	24 seasons (9yrs @ P4)	542‑212 (.719)	203-90 (.692)	7-5
Yolett “Coach Yo” McPhee‑McCuin (Jacksonville → Ole Miss)	13 seasons (7 yrs @ P4)	220‑158 (.582)	125-95 (.565)	5-4

I'm a little bias of course being a sooner fan.

Jennie has two Big 12 titles during her 3 yrs in that conf and never finished below 4th place in the Big 12 & SEC. She took over an OU program where none of the players on the team ever won more than 12 games in a single season.

Kenny has made it past the second round of the NCAA 1 time in 9 yrs...that was a final four run though.

Coach Yo has made the Sweet Sixteen twice in 7 yrs at Ole Miss.

 

[DefenseBB]

Interesting observation. It should be noted that, by this yardstick, Coach Yo and Jenny Baranczyk have a little time left and Carly Thibault-DuDonis has more than a decade (2 decades + for Coach Caroline Ducharme...).

Coach Yo...

Yes, she can sell a program to a portal transfer player, yes she will have cash to burn, but can she recruit elite or very good HS players and can, you know, she actually coach a cohesive offensive game or defensive scheme to win close games? In my book, that is highly doubtful.

For @Vowelguy , Scott Rueck has made a final four back in 2016, he should still be around in 10 years but who really knows.

I did just get a call from @triaddukefan who says we are overlooking Courtney Banghart.....Thanks for that tip....😜

 

[GamecockFam]

Coach Yo...

Yes, she can sell a program to a portal transfer player, yes she will have cash to burn, but can she recruit elite or very good HS players and can, you know, she actually coach a cohesive offensive game or defensive scheme to win close games? In my book, that is highly doubtful.

I did just get a call from @triaddukefan who says we are overlooking Courtney Banghart.....Thanks for that tip....😜

I love Coach Yo! She hasn't had the best offenses but she has had her fair share of success. I always hated going again her defenses, so I don't understand that criticism. Let's not forget that her team knocked off #1 seed Stanford as an 8-seed in the tournament two years ago. She has turned Ole Miss into a perennial sweet 16 team. I personally think she is a recruit or two away from taking the next step with her program.

 

[DefenseBB]

Another way to frame the question: how long does it take for a coach to show that they’re great?

Or maybe the answer is as long as it takes.

Let me start by "cursing you" as this thread had me add to my coaching list of team who made the Final Four and spend hours on age, length of service and NCAAT success. In all I gather tons of data but not sure what to show or how to present it. Darn YOU!!!

All told, there are 13 active coaches who have made a Final Four. Mike Neighbors who resigned from Arkansas and Quinton Hillsman (is an assistant at Ole Miss) also have made one.

Currently, there are 3-P4 coaches under the age of 40-Caldwell-36 (10th year coaching), Jacie Hoyt-38 (OK State and 9th year overall) and Molly Miller-39 at Arizona State (12th year overall). As noted above is Carly Thibault-DuDonis age 34 (Fairfield who scored an upset vs. USF last night) who will get a P4 gig very soon. Two Ivy league coaches are 40:
Carrie Moore at Harvard in her 4th year of coaching
and our own @oldude 2nd fav school, Columbia has Megan Griffith who is not in her 10th year coaching. Both of them should be able to leverage their Ivy success into P4 gigs.

@Vowelguy led off the dialogue with the "next 10 years" premise. So when evaluating the current known crop of coaches, those in the 50-60 range will be 60-70 and near their end. This list includes:

Name Age # yrs Last BF Result
Jim Flannery 60 24th 2022 E8
Jan Jenson 56 2nd 2025 2ndRd
Teri Moren 56 22nd 2021 E8
Kevin McGuff 55 24th 2023 E8
Kim Barnes Arico 55 30th 2022 E8
Dawn Pitzuweit 53 19th 2022 S16
Denise Dillon 52 23rd 2023 S16
Charmin Smith 50 7th 2025 1stRd
Nicki Collen 50 4th 2024 S16
Carla Berube 50 24th 2023 2ndRd

Legend is "Last BF" Best Finish; E8 is Elite 8; S16 is Sweet 16 and 2ndRd is field of 32, 1stRd is field of 64

Of this lot, I am not very optimistic on any of them winning a title.

The next grouping is in the 41-49 range.

Name School Age # yrs Last BF Result
JR Payne Colorado 48 16th 2024 S16
Niele Ivey ND 48 6th 2025 S16
Shea Ralph Vanderbilt 47 5th 2025 1stRd
Courtney Banghart UNC 47 19th 2025 S16
Cara Consuegra Marquette 46 15th 2022 1stRd
Joe Tartamella SJU 46 14th 2014 2ndRd
Shauna Green Illinois 46 12th 2025 2ndRd
Mark Campbell TCU 45 5th 2025 E8
Booke Wyckoff FSU 45 5th 2025 2ndRd
Kara Lawson Duke 44 6th 2025 E8
Lisa Fortier Gonzaga 44 12th 2024 S16
Robin Fralick Mich St 43 11th 2025 1stRd
Jennifer Baranczyk Oklahoma 43 14th 2025 S16
Yolanda McPhee-McCuin Ole Miss 43 13th 2025 S16
Amaka Agugua-Hamilton Virginia 42 7th 2021 S16 (achieved with Missouri State)
Meg Duffy Va Tech 41 9th 2024 1stRd

To me, this is the group with lots of potential, good success already, conference and school to support the program and recruiting.
There are also some duds in there as well but I don't want to get into trouble so I will leave those names to your imagination.

My guess for the first title winner of this group is JEN BRANCZYK, next would be Kara Lawson (yes, I threw some snark at @triaddukefan earlier but here I want to point out support). Campbell will also be interesting to watch as well as Ivey and Fralick.

Thoughts?

 

[oldude]

Let me start by "cursing you" as this thread had me add to my coaching list of team who made the Final Four and spend hours on age, length of service and NCAAT success. In all I gather tons of data but not sure what to show or how to present it. Darn YOU!!!

All told, there are 13 active coaches who have made a Final Four. Mike Neighbors who resigned from Arkansas and Quinton Hillsman (is an assistant at Ole Miss) also have made one.

Currently, there are 3-P4 coaches under the age of 40-Caldwell-36 (10th year coaching), Jacie Hoyt-38 (OK State and 9th year overall) and Molly Miller-39 at Arizona State (12th year overall). As noted above is Carly Thibault-DuDonis age 34 (Fairfield who scored an upset vs. USF last night) who will get a P4 gig very soon. Two Ivy league coaches are 40:
Carrie Moore at Harvard in her 4th year of coaching
and our own @oldude 2nd fav school, Columbia has Megan Griffith who is not in her 10th year coaching. Both of them should be able to leverage their Ivy success into P4 gigs.

@Vowelguy led off the dialogue with the "next 10 years" premise. So when evaluating the current known crop of coaches, those in the 50-60 range will be 60-70 and near their end. This list includes:

Name Age # yrs Last BF Result
Jim Flannery 60 24th 2022 E8
Jan Jenson 56 2nd 2025 2ndRd
Teri Moren 56 22nd 2021 E8
Kevin McGuff 55 24th 2023 E8
Kim Barnes Arico 55 30th 2022 E8
Dawn Pitzuweit 53 19th 2022 S16
Denise Dillon 52 23rd 2023 S16
Charmin Smith 50 7th 2025 1stRd
Nicki Collen 50 4th 2024 S16
Carla Berube 50 24th 2023 2ndRd

Legend is "Last BF" Best Finish; E8 is Elite 8; S16 is Sweet 16 and 2ndRd is field of 32, 1stRd is field of 64

Of this lot, I am not very optimistic on any of them winning a title.

The next grouping is in the 41-49 range.

Name School Age # yrs Last BF Result
JR Payne Colorado 48 16th 2024 S16
Niele Ivey ND 48 6th 2025 S16
Shea Ralph Vanderbilt 47 5th 2025 1stRd
Courtney Banghart UNC 47 19th 2025 S16
Cara Consuegra Marquette 46 15th 2022 1stRd
Joe Tartamella SJU 46 14th 2014 2ndRd
Shauna Green Illinois 46 12th 2025 2ndRd
Mark Campbell TCU 45 5th 2025 E8
Booke Wyckoff FSU 45 5th 2025 2ndRd
Kara Lawson Duke 44 6th 2025 E8
Lisa Fortier Gonzaga 44 12th 2024 S16
Robin Fralick Mich St 43 11th 2025 1stRd
Jennifer Baranczyk Oklahoma 43 14th 2025 S16
Yolanda McPhee-McCuin Ole Miss 43 13th 2025 S16
Amaka Agugua-Hamilton Virginia 42 7th 2021 S16 (achieved with Missouri State)
Meg Duffy Va Tech 41 9th 2024 1stRd

To me, this is the group with lots of potential, good success already, conference and school to support the program and recruiting.
There are also some duds in there as well but I don't want to get into trouble so I will leave those names to your imagination.

My guess for the first title winner of this group is JEN BRANCZYK, next would be Kara Lawson (yes, I threw some snark at @triaddukefan earlier but here I want to point out support). Campbell will also be interesting to watch as well as Ivey and Fralick.

Thoughts?

Impressive analysis DBB. Did you skip eating and sleeping for several days to complete this? 😉

 

[cancontent]

Let me start by "cursing you" as this thread had me add to my coaching list of team who made the Final Four and spend hours on age, length of service and NCAAT success. In all I gather tons of data but not sure what to show or how to present it. Darn YOU!!!

All told, there are 13 active coaches who have made a Final Four. Mike Neighbors who resigned from Arkansas and Quinton Hillsman (is an assistant at Ole Miss) also have made one.

Currently, there are 3-P4 coaches under the age of 40-Caldwell-36 (10th year coaching), Jacie Hoyt-38 (OK State and 9th year overall) and Molly Miller-39 at Arizona State (12th year overall). As noted above is Carly Thibault-DuDonis age 34 (Fairfield who scored an upset vs. USF last night) who will get a P4 gig very soon. Two Ivy league coaches are 40:
Carrie Moore at Harvard in her 4th year of coaching
and our own @oldude 2nd fav school, Columbia has Megan Griffith who is not in her 10th year coaching. Both of them should be able to leverage their Ivy success into P4 gigs.

@Vowelguy led off the dialogue with the "next 10 years" premise. So when evaluating the current known crop of coaches, those in the 50-60 range will be 60-70 and near their end. This list includes:

Name Age # yrs Last BF Result
Jim Flannery 60 24th 2022 E8
Jan Jenson 56 2nd 2025 2ndRd
Teri Moren 56 22nd 2021 E8
Kevin McGuff 55 24th 2023 E8
Kim Barnes Arico 55 30th 2022 E8
Dawn Pitzuweit 53 19th 2022 S16
Denise Dillon 52 23rd 2023 S16
Charmin Smith 50 7th 2025 1stRd
Nicki Collen 50 4th 2024 S16
Carla Berube 50 24th 2023 2ndRd

Legend is "Last BF" Best Finish; E8 is Elite 8; S16 is Sweet 16 and 2ndRd is field of 32, 1stRd is field of 64

Of this lot, I am not very optimistic on any of them winning a title.

The next grouping is in the 41-49 range.

Name School Age # yrs Last BF Result
JR Payne Colorado 48 16th 2024 S16
Niele Ivey ND 48 6th 2025 S16
Shea Ralph Vanderbilt 47 5th 2025 1stRd
Courtney Banghart UNC 47 19th 2025 S16
Cara Consuegra Marquette 46 15th 2022 1stRd
Joe Tartamella SJU 46 14th 2014 2ndRd
Shauna Green Illinois 46 12th 2025 2ndRd
Mark Campbell TCU 45 5th 2025 E8
Booke Wyckoff FSU 45 5th 2025 2ndRd
Kara Lawson Duke 44 6th 2025 E8
Lisa Fortier Gonzaga 44 12th 2024 S16
Robin Fralick Mich St 43 11th 2025 1stRd
Jennifer Baranczyk Oklahoma 43 14th 2025 S16
Yolanda McPhee-McCuin Ole Miss 43 13th 2025 S16
Amaka Agugua-Hamilton Virginia 42 7th 2021 S16 (achieved with Missouri State)
Meg Duffy Va Tech 41 9th 2024 1stRd

To me, this is the group with lots of potential, good success already, conference and school to support the program and recruiting.
There are also some duds in there as well but I don't want to get into trouble so I will leave those names to your imagination.

My guess for the first title winner of this group is JEN BRANCZYK, next would be Kara Lawson (yes, I threw some snark at @triaddukefan earlier but here I want to point out support). Campbell will also be interesting to watch as well as Ivey and Fralick.

Thoughts?

This data looks like something to test an AI engine with to see how they'd parse it. Love the insight!