My question was poorly formed.
What I asking is not so much who will be the next 'top' coaches, but will any of them be 'great'? And if there are fewer great coaches, what does that do for the game and player development?
I know that every generation thinks their era is the best never to be reproduced, and that my question can be discounted on that basis.
But the fact that none of the younger generation has really broken through by their 40s seems notable.
It could be that the overall quality of coaches and players has improved so it's harder to ascend early. Or that with the W and foreign leagues, ex-players are getting a later start.
My opinion?
Well , I divide coaches into two categories. First, there are the
great coaches who led schools to elite blue blood levels by achieving certain bright lines
(1) either 3 national championships or 2 championships with 5 championship game appearances
AND (2) a “decade of greatness” meaning ten or more
consecutive years of reaching at least the sweet 16. Only Barmore, Pat, Geno, Tara, Kim, Muffet and Dawn have achieved that!
Then, there are the
Excellent coaches who have put together
(1) more than one appearance in the national championship
AND (2) “ a decade of relevance” meaning ten or more years of reaching the NCAA tournament AND reaching the Sweet 16 at least 6 of those years. Examples are Joe Ciampi (Auburn), Andy Landers (UGA), Brenda Frieze (Maryland), Vic Schaefer (MSST and Texas) , Jeff Walz (Louisville). There are probably others because I have not done an exhaustive search. Linda Sharp at USC? Gail Goestenkors at Duke? Jody Conradt at Texas? Sylvia Hatchell at UNC?
As you can see, it takes at least ten years of coaching to qualify as either a “great” or “excellent” coach ( for me). The young Turks like mark Campbell or Kim Caldwell need more years to attain the proper achievements. Coaches like Neil Ivey, Cori Close, Joe Brooks etc etc are working on their resumes.