They are who we thought they were

[socal613ws]

Same ole, same ole,
Zaga loses to a bad byu team who won't even make the tournament
Cincy loses to UCF who uconn dominated both times.

 

[yukonyc212]

Outside of an early season tournament win vs Zona Gonzaga has beat no one. Same thing every year.

 

[auror]

I will take the over on over/under Gonzaga NCAA tournament wins if it's 3.

 

[Jerry1714]

Outside of an early season tournament win vs Zona Gonzaga has beat no one. Same thing every year.

They have 5 top 37 RPI wins. 4 Top 23 Kenpom wins. 10 top 100 wins. Is that no one?

Amazing some of the posts on this board. Loss 1 game out of 30 and people post "they are who we thought they were". Comical.

 

[Hurleyman216]

They have 5 top 37 RPI wins. 4 Top 23 Kenpom wins. 10 top 100 wins. Is that no one?

Amazing some of the posts on this board. Loss 1 game out of 30 and people post "they are who we thought they were". Comical.

They are this year's version of St. Joe's to a T. Not saying they aren't a good team, but they'll likely fizzle in the Elite 8 if they get that far. It's really tough to make a run out of a sub-par conference (LVille/UConn/Nova were all anomalies in my opinion). Louisville won with their team that was built in the Big East where they played tough competition night in and night out (they technically won the 1st year in the AAC but that was a Big East squad). Uconn's run in 2014 was definitely out of the ordinary and doesn't happen but once every 30-40 years and Nova needed a 3 at the buzzer to beat UNC. I'm not saying it's impossible to win out of a non-P5 conference but it is definitely more difficult. I would say Kansas and UNC are going to be heavy favorites going into the tournament, they are the 2 most complete teams by far. That being said, I'll be rooting for the Zags to win it all just to stick it to the P5.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

They are this year's version of St. Joe's to a T. Not saying they aren't a good team, but they'll likely fizzle in the Elite 8 if they get that far.

You realize how screwed up your perspective has to be for this to read as a criticism?

 

[Hurleyman216]

Where in my post above did I criticize them? They're a good team, I just don't think they're a serious title contender. I'd kill for an Elite 8 this year, that wasn't the point of my post. At the end of the day you either win championships or you don't...I'd trade 100 elite 8 appearances for 1 National Championship, but that's just me.

 

[yukonyc212]

They have 5 top 37 RPI wins. 4 Top 23 Kenpom wins. 10 top 100 wins. Is that no one?

Amazing some of the posts on this board. Loss 1 game out of 30 and people post "they are who we thought they were". Comical.

You can say or think what you want, but we see this every other year from them. Very high seeds in the tournament and early flameouts. They almost never play to their seeding in the tournament. Hell, I think they've only been to 2 elite 8s since they became relevant 20 years back and they've had a top 4 seed 7 times, including several 1 seeds. You can defend their schedule with the "rpi" but several of those wins are against St. Mary's. Another WCC program that is a top 25 team somehow without having beaten a top 25 team all year and losing at home to UT Arlington by 15. I'll be selling both Gonzaga and St. Mary's with both hands come tournament time.

 

[yukonyc212]

I will take the over on over/under Gonzaga NCAA tournament wins if it's 3.

How much would you like to bet? I'm sure we can find some kind of way to hold money in escrow.

 

[4in16]

...and we let them off the hook!

 

[CTBasketball]

Gonzaga's success, like most teams, depends on the draw they get.

See Wichita State 2014.

 

[auror]

How much would you like to bet? I'm sure we can find some kind of way to hold money in escrow.

Over 3 wins for me, push on 3, under 3 wins for you. Fake internet points. Hooray.

 

[jibsey]

Less concerned about them than what we will be next year since this year is toasted.

 

[Jerry1714]

You can say or think what you want, but we see this every other year from them. Very high seeds in the tournament and early flameouts. They almost never play to their seeding in the tournament. Hell, I think they've only been to 2 elite 8s since they became relevant 20 years back and they've had a top 4 seed 7 times, including several 1 seeds. You can defend their schedule with the "rpi" but several of those wins are against St. Mary's. Another WCC program that is a top 25 team somehow without having beaten a top 25 team all year and losing at home to UT Arlington by 15. I'll be selling both Gonzaga and St. Mary's with both hands come tournament time.

In the last 11 years Gonzaga has lost to a team seeded worse than them twice, and one was a 7/10 game.

So by "never play to their seed" did you mean they always play to their seed?

You are 0-2 in this thread with your hot takes.

 

[docsu]

Where in my post above did I criticize them? They're a good team, I just don't think they're a serious title contender. I'd kill for an Elite 8 this year, that wasn't the point of my post. At the end of the day you either win championships or you don't...I'd trade 100 elite 8 appearances for 1 National Championship, but that's just me.

"Fizzle in the elite eight if they get that far." Reads as criticism.

Before that you compared them to a team that ost on the last possession to a two seed. Do you not realize how ridiculous you sound?

And Lville was in the Big East when they won the title in 2013. Not the American.

 

[yukonyc212]

In the last 11 years Gonzaga has lost to a team seeded worse than them twice, and one was a 7/10 game.

So by "never play to their seed" did you mean they always play to their seed?

You are 0-2 in this thread with your hot takes.

LOL, it's funny that you chose "11 years" as the time frame to manipulate your data points. However if you extrapolate out to say 15 years you get this.

2001-02 - 6 seed loss to #11 seed Wyoming in 1st round.

2003-04 - 2 seed loss to #10 seed Nevada by 19 points in 2nd round.

2004-05 - 3 seed loss to #6 seed Texas Tech in 2nd round.

2007-08 - 7 seed loss to #10 seed Davidson in 1st round.

2012-13 - 1 seed loss to #9 seed Wichita St in 2nd round.

Not sure what you see in there or how you chose to manipulate the data points to fit your narrative, but I see 3 times they were a top 3 seed and didn't get out of the first weekend. So ya... they've been gang busters in the tournament. You're probably the only guy here defending their tournament performance on this board. I would say that's a HARD L for you.

 

[Jerry1714]

LOL, it's funny that you chose "11 years" as the time frame to manipulate your data points. However if you extrapolate out to say 15 years you get this.

2001-02 - 6 seed loss to #11 seed Wyoming in 1st round.

2003-04 - 2 seed loss to #10 seed Nevada by 19 points in 2nd round.

2004-05 - 3 seed loss to #6 seed Texas Tech in 2nd round.

2007-08 - 7 seed loss to #10 seed Davidson in 1st round.

2012-13 - 1 seed loss to #9 seed Wichita St in 2nd round.

Not sure what you see in there or how you chose to manipulate the data points to fit your narrative, but I see 3 times they were a top 3 seed and didn't get out of the first weekend. So ya... they've been gang busters in the tournament. You're probably the only guy here defending their tournament performance on this board. I would say that's a HARD L for you.

So 5 times in 15 years, 3 of these times over 12 years ago, is never playing to their seed? As for the only one defending them, did you see my original post telling you how wrong you were got 6 likes, while you received none? Only one of us is on an island of made up facts, and it is not me.

 

[yukonyc212]

In the last 11 years Gonzaga has lost to a team seeded worse than them twice, and one was a 7/10 game.

So by "never play to their seed" did you mean they always play to their seed?

You are 0-2 in this thread with your hot takes.

Furthermore, taking a deeper look at the data reveals they have only outperformed their seeding 3 times in the past 15 years.

2002-2003 - 9 seed loss in 2nd round to 1 seed Arizona.

2010-11 - 11 seed loss to 3 seed in the 2nd round.

2015-16 - 11 seed loss to 10 seed Syracuse in Sweet 16.

So let's recap.... In 15 years they have outperformed their seeding 3 times, underperformed their seeding 5 times and played to seed 7 times. Also 2 of the 3 times they overperformed their seed were in close 1st round matchups. 8-9 game and 6 -11. They have only gotten to 1 elite 8 in that time frame and that was out of the 2 seed 2 years ago. So again.... the data doesn't really enforce your claim for victory.

 

[yukonyc212]

So 5 times in 15 years, 3 of these times over 12 years ago, is never playing to their seed? As for the only one defending them, did you see my original post telling you how wrong you were got 6 likes, while you received none? Only one of us is on an island of made up facts, and it is not me.

lol that's your criteria to prove me wrong? Likes on the forum. You're reaching bro.

 

[yukonyc212]

So 5 times in 15 years, 3 of these times over 12 years ago, is never playing to their seed? As for the only one defending them, did you see my original post telling you how wrong you were got 6 likes, while you received none? Only one of us is on an island of made up facts, and it is not me.

Also to be a top 3 seed and not make it out of the 1st weekend is an uber fail. And it's happened 3 times for them in 15 years.

 

[Jerry1714]

lol that's your criteria to prove me wrong? Likes on the forum. You're reaching bro.

You said I was alone in defending them here, I am not, others agreed with my point. I proved wrong by simple facts, they have not underperformed their seed every year as you claimed, in fact not even close. same as your scheduling claim

 

[Jerry1714]

Also to be a top 3 seed and not make it out of the 1st weekend is an uber fail. And it's happened 3 times for them in 15 years.

So we have gone from under performing their seed every year, to having 3 really poor performances in 15 years. Ok, now you are starting to make sense and I agree with you. Good work, way to think things through.

 

[yukonyc212]

You said I was alone in defending them here, I am not, others agreed with my point. I proved wrong by simple facts, they have not underperformed their seed every year as you claimed, in fact not even close. same as your scheduling claim

Remember when we were the best team to never make a final 4? Well that's them now. And once again they will get a top 2 seed. Let's see if they get there this year. Would you perhaps care to wager?

 

[Jerry1714]

Remember when we were the best team to never make a final 4? Well that's them now. And once again they will get a top 2 seed. Let's see if they get there this year. Would you perhaps care to wager?

Do I want to make a 1/1 bet on them making the final four? No, I am not stupid. They are 3/1 to make the final four currently. I think those odds are bad, but I do believe they are one of the top 5 teams in the country.

 

[yukonyc212]

Do I want to make a 1/1 bet on them making the final four? No, I am not stupid. They are 3/1 to make the final four currently. I think those odds are bad, but I do believe they are one of the top 5 teams in the country.

thought you might bite

 

[auror]

Furthermore, taking a deeper look at the data reveals they have only outperformed their seeding 3 times in the past 15 years.

You guys were arguing with a lot of arbitrary end points and nothing rigorous, so I tried to look up Gonzaga's updated PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectation), but couldn't find it. So I did it myself.

Under Coach Few (2000 - Present)
2.975 total PASE

Essentially, they've won 3 extra tournament games than they were expected to in the 17 years. 0.175 per tourny. Anything positive over a long sample size is good. Few's number is quite good, but not elite. Brad Stevens is at 1.5 PASE per tourny, for example (I can assume he is the GOAT in this stat with a sample size of more than 2 or 3 trips).

Kevin Ollie has a truly ridiculous PASE because of the championship and then missing the tournament entirely when we were bad. He got 5.11 PASE for 2014 by itself, then another 0.45 in '16 by winning the coin flip game. 5.56 total for 2.78 PASE per tourny.