Theories on recruiting improvement?

[Duncan Idaho]

If UConn adds more three star recruits than NR from here on out...the average star ranking and points will move up....if more NR and two star recruits are added and less than two more three stars, than the rankings will remain static or move down some.

Prefer avg. player rating versus star ranking.
5.4 gets you two stars and 5.5, three stars. A 0.1 player rating difference gets you a 50% jump in star rating.

 

[billybud]

Prefer avg. player rating versus star ranking.
5.4 gets you two stars and 5.5, three stars. A 0.1 player rating difference gets you a 50% jump in star rating.

The 247 math used for their rankings is interesting...

The team's commitments are ranked from highest to lowest based on their star rating. The scores are weighted, based on the rankings, according to a Gaussian distribution formula or a bell curve. In other words, the top recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second commit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, and down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.

The highest-rated recruits contribute more points to the total team score than the lower-rated recruits. Not just because their rating is higher, but also because they contribute a higher percentage of their rating than those commits with a lower ranking in the class. Here is the punchline: The top third of every class contributes most points to the team score, the middle third contributes some points to the team score, and the bottom third contributes very few points to the final team score.

 

[billybud]

Right now with 10 commits with two 3 stars...the top 30 % of the curve is favorable to Uconn...

 

[huskymedic]

Right now with 10 commits with two 3 stars...the top 30 % of the curve is favorable to Uconn...

It’s the second time you referenced this recently - where are you seeing “10 commits with two 3 stars”?

 

[billybud]

Holy God...it's 8 out of ten on 247 and 3 of ten on Rival ...give me my bi-focul
LOL...I use Rivals...three 3 stars...

UConnReport

The definitive source for all Connecticut news.

connecticut.rivals.com

 

[JohnFSilver]

The 247 math used for their rankings is interesting...

The team's commitments are ranked from highest to lowest based on their star rating. The scores are weighted, based on the rankings, according to a Gaussian distribution formula or a bell curve. In other words, the top recruit is worth 100% of his rating value, the second commit is worth nearly 100% of his rating value, and down to the last recruit who is worth a small fraction of his rating value. This formula ensures that all commits contribute at least some value to the team's score without heavily rewarding teams that have several more commitments than others.

The highest-rated recruits contribute more points to the total team score than the lower-rated recruits. Not just because their rating is higher, but also because they contribute a higher percentage of their rating than those commits with a lower ranking in the class. Here is the punchline: The top third of every class contributes most points to the team score, the middle third contributes some points to the team score, and the bottom third contributes very few points to the final team score.

That is a terrible rating model. I don’t even want to get into it.

 

[billybud]

That is a terrible rating model. I don’t even want to get into it.

Yeah....I don't normally look at 247...I decided to look behind their team ranking model....it was interesting...I did not realize how they top weighted the commits.

 

[Chin Diesel]

That is a terrible rating model. I don’t even want to get into it.

Yeah....I don't normally look at 247...I decided to look behind their team ranking model....it was interesting...I did not realize how they top weighted the commits.

It's not entirely without merit. Their overall ranking model is geared towards the top recruits have most impact on overall team success. Having a handful of highly ranked players should have more impact than a gaggle of middling players.

 

[billybud]

It's not entirely without merit. Their overall ranking model is geared towards the top recruits have most impact on overall team success. Having a handful of highly ranked players should have more impact than a gaggle of middling players.

If I was designing the Billybud Ranking...I would weight high quality QB's, DT's, DE's, and OT's....

 

[uconndogs]

I've seen too many disparities over the years with recruiting at this level to believe that high school football players can be rated with this level of granularity. Projecting the physical development alone is a huge wild card. Sure the 5* and probably a good chunk of the 4* are pretty sure bets, but after that I think it gets pretty dicey.

The offers (assuming that the kids are being straight on that) probably are telling and my bet is that the recruiting sights rely very heavily on that. I'm absolutely convinced that if Nick Saban offered me a scholarship that I would get at lease 4* to go along with my 7.4 40, small frame and general avoidance of contact.

Seriously, you can't judge recruiting at a program like UCONN until the kids get on the field and start running and banging.

 

[billybud]

I think that offers from some schools do carry weight....the "big" programs have anaylsts on staff who sift through video and stats....assistant coaches who study guys at camps and review the videos annotated by the analyst staff....attend high school games, etc

Alabama has 13 Football Analysts....a Director and Assistant Director of Football Recruitment..four guys in Player Personnel...and an Associate Director of Football Recruiting....and who knows how many Graduate Assistants.

With those kind of resources available, it is assumed that an offer has been finely sifted and the Rating Services take notice.

 

[JohnFSilver]

It's not entirely without merit. Their overall ranking model is geared towards the top recruits have most impact on overall team success. Having a handful of highly ranked players should have more impact than a gaggle of middling players.

I get the statistical modeling. I question the data going In. It assumes your top star players are markedly better than you bottom 1/3 players. So, I could have 7 4 stars and 10 2 stars. Or 17 3 stars.

the depth of a class isn’t counted much. And, it is setup ti whomever gets the most 5 star recruits gets the best class.

if Alabama offers you aren’t you automatically a 3 star? Think about that. Why? Because Alabama offered you.
Circular rating scales.

 

[Waquoit]

if Alabama offers you aren’t you automatically a 3 star? Think about that. Why? Because Alabama offered you.
Circular rating scales.

What about the our end of the pool? Any merit? Is this our best class in years, iyo?

 

[Ajs120102]

My theory is that virtual recruiting helped out UConn immensely. Easier to shine up things over the computer.

 

[Exit 4]

When we turn the page to July we will have largely completed Stage 1 of the recruiting calendar - pulling in the kids that want to commit ahead of their senior season. Now we will enter stage 2 - the more quiet summer period when kids that want to commit ahead of their senior take the time to visit some schools one more time before deciding. I think some kids on our offer list that are within a 5 hr drive might be waiting to do that (perhaps this applies to Ugbaja, Henderson, Kamara, Boti, Louce, others - just guessing). With COVid travel restrictions easing in the northeast, more kids will probably make unofficial visits in July/Aug and then announce. After the first snap of the 2020 season we enter Stage 3 - in season recruiting. In season recruiting never been too big for us....things get more complicated as recruits will get to see the development of our program as a backdrop to their decision making. We have to play well. Stage 4 is the Nov-Dec bonanza period that normally yields the majority of our recruits as we look for senior surprises and bob and weave in the fall out of coaching changes and then Stage 5 is the Jan-Feb period as the left overs and hold outs make their decisions for those last few slots. Nationally you have to figure the maturing portal market will play big this Dec/Jan/Feb.
Anyway we are off to a good start, have to keep it up - race is far from over as there are many stages to go. Ideally we'll get a couple more kids before we play UMass, then the pressure is on to play well.

 

[JohnFSilver]

What about the our end of the pool? Any merit? Is this our best class in years, iyo?

i dont know. Think about it. How much is our ratings affected by the recruit inflation of Texas and FloridA recruits recruits as to who else offered .

I don’t look at stars. I look at quality of offers and when commitment happened.

If a dude has offers from P5, mac, aac, and our peers, I am fine. If we are battling Fcs? That is ok if the commitment is in June (usually
Means uconn likes that player and thinks he is being underecruited).

If a dude only has FCS offers in December and then commits? Probably a reach and you are filling slots for depth.

Byron Jones is the great story. I talked with several assistants who recruited him over the years. uconn offered very early and he had almost no offers. Was uconn brilliant? No.

The assistant said, if hudl was around and they saw his film and athleticism he would have had 20 offers in two weeks.

UConn got commit. Jones shutdown recruiting and that was it.