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So Sunday afternoon, blacked out at home, I spent over an hour typing only to be kicked off the internet before I could post. So now starting again, and it will be somewhat abridged.
Since I started following (o.k., becoming obsessed with) UConn football when they moved to the Rent, I have never had a hard time seeing how good the team would be for the upcoming year. I think my predictions have been within a game of the outcome for a number of years running (thought if someone wants to check and prove me wrong, go fot it -- I'm too lazy). This year, however, I have very little idea what to expect. and am not at all confident with what I am predicting. Let me then run through the three reasons I'm just not seeing this year's team clearly, some of which are obvious but some of which may not be, and then we'll hazard a number.
The most obvious reason that this team is hard to predict is the uncertainty at QB and TB, the two most important positions for a college football team. Yes, this is college, and yes, you change your QBs and TBs frequently, but we've always known more than we know now. When Tyler came to the program, we know he was good enough that a returning starter got shifted almost immediately to another position. When Zach and Cody took over in '09, we had seen each of them start due to injuries. This year, we know nothing. I am somewhat comforted that everyone seems to have beaten out Michael Box, as when I combine this with the facts that Box did beat out Zach at one point last year and how poor the QB play was, I intellectually believe that our QB play should be better. But I'm not convinced it will be Big East average, or that turnovers won't go way, way up. At TB, we had seen Todman and Dixon while the Donald was there. We had seen the Donald before he became the man in '08. This year, we have a senior with only a few carries playing his third position in college ball and a freshman who wasn't that heavily recruited. Obviously, I don't expect either to replace Todman. If Terry Richardson was back, I'd say we've never had less than good TB play, no matter whom we've plugged in, so why should that start now. But again, whether we will be conference average is a big unknown.
Second, without getting into whether P will ultimately be better than our former coach, because it's not particularly relevant at the moment, we don't know how the team will react in the first year of a new staff. Generally, teams move backwards even if the coach is good, as the players have to relearn almost everything and the new coaches have to fit another coach's players into the way they gameplan and scheme. Now, I'm hoping there is less of a negative effect here for two reasons. One is that there is a large amount of continuity in the staff, if not the three guys (P, Deleone and Brown) making all the decisions, and the second is that some of Edsall's biggest strengths -- players working their butts off in the offseason to improve and playing good, solid fundamental football -- shouldn't just disappear with a new coach. And, I'm certainly hoping that on some side of the ball we see some schematic advantages. But this is a big uncertainty as well.
The third reason for my uncertainty is the least obvious, but the most important to deal with in making a prediction. Normally, when you make a prediction, you determine how good you were last year, look at the schedule compared to last year's, look at your personnel changes, and determine if you will be better or worse than last year and by how much. But how good were we last year? It is very hard to answer that because of how schizophrenic this team was. Were we the 3-4 team that, frankly, sucked, and then we had a lucky run? Were we the 5-0 team that, while limited in its passing game, played exactly right for the weapons we had and was (make no mistake) the best team in the Big East? Or was neither the start or the finish of the season "who we were" and in fact we were an 8-4 team. Answer that and you can make a prediction.
So who were we? Despite the negativity thrown out by those who couldn't stand the thought that our former coach might be accomplishing something, I believe we were the 5-0 team that couldn't dominate good Big East teams but could get the W. I attribute the 3-4 start (without removing any responsibility for it from the coaches) to something just not being right mentally. I don't know exactly what that was. Was it the emotional hangover from Jasper's death and the rollercoaster finish to '09? The team not reacting well to Edsall as a position coach? The team not dealing with the Cody soap opera? Unable to deal with preseason expectations for the first time ever? An attitude that was too businesslike and not enthusiastic enough? Or my personal favorite, which is that we were too high for Michigan and when they beat us we took a shot to the solar plexus that we never recovered from until we got a week off? I don't know, but I know that the body language was totally different when they came out under the lights to play WVU, and I'm going to operate from the belief that it was that second half team that was what we were.
If you do that, then we have nine returning D starters (and a lot of backups as well), all 3 kickers and our top KR/PR on specials, and an offense that returns roughly 6 starters with major holes at the skill positions. Our combined D and specials I expect to be the best in the league. The offense may be the worst, but that doesn't mean the combination won't be fine. This offense on paper could have been the best team in the conference if Cody, the Bus, Smitty, Todman and Frey were still here, but they're not and, overall, I see a small combined personnel downgrade so long as the QB and TB play is o.k. I put a small negative on this year with the coaching change, but not a big one. But those facts are balanced by the fact that our schedule is much easier. We have 7 home games, our OOC schedule is the weakest I ever remember, and the conference starts the year with one borderline ranked team. Playing Cincy, Pitt and WVU on the road may make it harder to win the conference title than the years we get those schools at home, but the schedule makes it very easy to put up a solid, winning record if the team comes through.
If you look at the schedule, I divide the games into five categories. We should win at Buffalo and home to Fordham and WMU even if we don't play well. I expect us to be solid favorites at Vandy and home to ISU, Louisville and Rutgers. The home game against Syracuse, if played opening week, would be viewed as a toss up. I expect us to be underdogs, with a reasonable shot, at Pitt and Cincy and home to USF. And I don't see us winning at WVU.
So I add that all up, take a dose of optimism, and say we go 8-4. If the QB play is average and the TB play is above average, and we have a borderline Top 25 team in talent, 10-2 is not a stretch against this schedule. On the other hand, if QB play doesn't improve from last year and we struggle running the ball, 5-7 is not impossible. But I'll say 8-4, with P using Edsall's players, a Sagarin in the 40s, and P then needing to show his impact on the program next year when TCU enters the league and our OOC schedules become much harder.
80 hours or so until kickoff. I can't wait.
Since I started following (o.k., becoming obsessed with) UConn football when they moved to the Rent, I have never had a hard time seeing how good the team would be for the upcoming year. I think my predictions have been within a game of the outcome for a number of years running (thought if someone wants to check and prove me wrong, go fot it -- I'm too lazy). This year, however, I have very little idea what to expect. and am not at all confident with what I am predicting. Let me then run through the three reasons I'm just not seeing this year's team clearly, some of which are obvious but some of which may not be, and then we'll hazard a number.
The most obvious reason that this team is hard to predict is the uncertainty at QB and TB, the two most important positions for a college football team. Yes, this is college, and yes, you change your QBs and TBs frequently, but we've always known more than we know now. When Tyler came to the program, we know he was good enough that a returning starter got shifted almost immediately to another position. When Zach and Cody took over in '09, we had seen each of them start due to injuries. This year, we know nothing. I am somewhat comforted that everyone seems to have beaten out Michael Box, as when I combine this with the facts that Box did beat out Zach at one point last year and how poor the QB play was, I intellectually believe that our QB play should be better. But I'm not convinced it will be Big East average, or that turnovers won't go way, way up. At TB, we had seen Todman and Dixon while the Donald was there. We had seen the Donald before he became the man in '08. This year, we have a senior with only a few carries playing his third position in college ball and a freshman who wasn't that heavily recruited. Obviously, I don't expect either to replace Todman. If Terry Richardson was back, I'd say we've never had less than good TB play, no matter whom we've plugged in, so why should that start now. But again, whether we will be conference average is a big unknown.
Second, without getting into whether P will ultimately be better than our former coach, because it's not particularly relevant at the moment, we don't know how the team will react in the first year of a new staff. Generally, teams move backwards even if the coach is good, as the players have to relearn almost everything and the new coaches have to fit another coach's players into the way they gameplan and scheme. Now, I'm hoping there is less of a negative effect here for two reasons. One is that there is a large amount of continuity in the staff, if not the three guys (P, Deleone and Brown) making all the decisions, and the second is that some of Edsall's biggest strengths -- players working their butts off in the offseason to improve and playing good, solid fundamental football -- shouldn't just disappear with a new coach. And, I'm certainly hoping that on some side of the ball we see some schematic advantages. But this is a big uncertainty as well.
The third reason for my uncertainty is the least obvious, but the most important to deal with in making a prediction. Normally, when you make a prediction, you determine how good you were last year, look at the schedule compared to last year's, look at your personnel changes, and determine if you will be better or worse than last year and by how much. But how good were we last year? It is very hard to answer that because of how schizophrenic this team was. Were we the 3-4 team that, frankly, sucked, and then we had a lucky run? Were we the 5-0 team that, while limited in its passing game, played exactly right for the weapons we had and was (make no mistake) the best team in the Big East? Or was neither the start or the finish of the season "who we were" and in fact we were an 8-4 team. Answer that and you can make a prediction.
So who were we? Despite the negativity thrown out by those who couldn't stand the thought that our former coach might be accomplishing something, I believe we were the 5-0 team that couldn't dominate good Big East teams but could get the W. I attribute the 3-4 start (without removing any responsibility for it from the coaches) to something just not being right mentally. I don't know exactly what that was. Was it the emotional hangover from Jasper's death and the rollercoaster finish to '09? The team not reacting well to Edsall as a position coach? The team not dealing with the Cody soap opera? Unable to deal with preseason expectations for the first time ever? An attitude that was too businesslike and not enthusiastic enough? Or my personal favorite, which is that we were too high for Michigan and when they beat us we took a shot to the solar plexus that we never recovered from until we got a week off? I don't know, but I know that the body language was totally different when they came out under the lights to play WVU, and I'm going to operate from the belief that it was that second half team that was what we were.
If you do that, then we have nine returning D starters (and a lot of backups as well), all 3 kickers and our top KR/PR on specials, and an offense that returns roughly 6 starters with major holes at the skill positions. Our combined D and specials I expect to be the best in the league. The offense may be the worst, but that doesn't mean the combination won't be fine. This offense on paper could have been the best team in the conference if Cody, the Bus, Smitty, Todman and Frey were still here, but they're not and, overall, I see a small combined personnel downgrade so long as the QB and TB play is o.k. I put a small negative on this year with the coaching change, but not a big one. But those facts are balanced by the fact that our schedule is much easier. We have 7 home games, our OOC schedule is the weakest I ever remember, and the conference starts the year with one borderline ranked team. Playing Cincy, Pitt and WVU on the road may make it harder to win the conference title than the years we get those schools at home, but the schedule makes it very easy to put up a solid, winning record if the team comes through.
If you look at the schedule, I divide the games into five categories. We should win at Buffalo and home to Fordham and WMU even if we don't play well. I expect us to be solid favorites at Vandy and home to ISU, Louisville and Rutgers. The home game against Syracuse, if played opening week, would be viewed as a toss up. I expect us to be underdogs, with a reasonable shot, at Pitt and Cincy and home to USF. And I don't see us winning at WVU.
So I add that all up, take a dose of optimism, and say we go 8-4. If the QB play is average and the TB play is above average, and we have a borderline Top 25 team in talent, 10-2 is not a stretch against this schedule. On the other hand, if QB play doesn't improve from last year and we struggle running the ball, 5-7 is not impossible. But I'll say 8-4, with P using Edsall's players, a Sagarin in the 40s, and P then needing to show his impact on the program next year when TCU enters the league and our OOC schedules become much harder.
80 hours or so until kickoff. I can't wait.
