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O.K. -- for those who have followed this, we've been through the roster position by position and now comes the time when all that information has to be put to use and I have to figure out what my expectations are for the season.
Last year, I said it was very difficult to make a prediction for three reasons. First, we had no idea how the QB situation was going to play out. Second, we had no idea whether there would be a step back with the coaching change. The third was I wasn't sure how good the team was in 2010 -- was it the team that struggled the first seven games or the team that rolled off five straight to get to the Fiesta Bowl. The way 2011 played out, the answer to the first two issues was we got worse at QB (even though you could argue that even in 2010 we had the league's worst QB play) and we did take a step back as the players and the staff figured out how to work together. Those two factors led to a much worse season than I would have hoped for. The 3-4 finish in the Big East was not terrible (4-3 would have been a good achievement), but the 2-3 OOC season was much worse than I would have thought likely. The end result was a disappointing season and an end to our four-year bowl streak.
The good news about this year is that those two factors -- the QB play and the newness of the system -- both figure to be improved this year. There is no reason to think that the players won't better understand the coaches techniques and schemes. There is also no reason to think that the coaches won't better understand the players strengths and weaknesses and coach accordingly (and I did give the staff credit for making some adjustments in this area as last year wore on). The question is how much of an improvement will we see. Similarly, at QB, we would have expected to be better merely by the triumverate returning for a second bite of the apple with more experience. But the fact that Chandler Whitmer (o.k.?) beat everyone out and took the job, with McEntee and McCummings still back and hopefully improved, means QB play should be significantly better as well. The question is, by how much. The other extraneous factor is that, with WVU gone and only Temple in, I expect this to be a down year for the Big East. While someone (almost anyone) might step up, run through the conference at 6-1 and finish ranked, I'm not sure that any teams other than Louisville have a realistic shot at being one of the best 20 teams in the country this year. (That is different than running through a favorable schedule at 9-3 and being ranked). Cincy? I just don't see the overall talent. Rutgers? Please. When the OL functions as a coherent unit there, it will be the first time in forever. Not to mention the newness of the staff. USF? How many times will people pick this team to achieve something on paper. They return a lot of starters, yes, but from a team that finished a friggin 1-6 in conference. Why is returning a lot of starters a good thing for them?
Now, combine those factors with what we have returning. We have a D that returns 9 starters, many of them multi-year starters that in either '10 or '11 looked like they would be all-League level players. If there are no more struggles with scheme, and if Blidi remains healthy, I expect that the D might be able to shut down pretty much every offense on its schedule. While we have to replace a great Placekicker, we return good longsnappers, punters, kick and punt returners and kickoff specialists. I expect overall special teams play to be better. Offense remains a question mark. How good is Whitmer? How good is Jimmy Bennett and can he play a full season? Do we have a competent TB behind Lyle McCombs, and can you expect a guy that size to duplicate last year's workload without getting banged up at some point? There are no questions that the O has question marks, and that, on paper, you could look at the losses of the Moores, Petrus and Ryan and wonder if it can be worse. But, QB being better is such a huge part of Offense that I would expect even modest gains there. And, I expect the D to be good enough to allow a modest offense to win games.
I don't expect to win at Louisville. I expect to win at home against UMass, Buffalo and Temple. Beyond that, each and every week may be a dogfight. How many of those eight to we get? Question marks remain. However, my bottom line is that this should be a good team, but until I see QB play that is Big East average and an OL that can make up for the fact that it may have fewer All-Conference level performers than it's had in years, I can't say that I believe this will be a very good team that can challenge for a Big East title with four conference road games. So I will go with 8-4, 4-3 in the Big East. But I believe that is a relatively modest projection for this team, and that 9-3 is significantly more likely than 7-5.
See everyone Thursday night.
Last year, I said it was very difficult to make a prediction for three reasons. First, we had no idea how the QB situation was going to play out. Second, we had no idea whether there would be a step back with the coaching change. The third was I wasn't sure how good the team was in 2010 -- was it the team that struggled the first seven games or the team that rolled off five straight to get to the Fiesta Bowl. The way 2011 played out, the answer to the first two issues was we got worse at QB (even though you could argue that even in 2010 we had the league's worst QB play) and we did take a step back as the players and the staff figured out how to work together. Those two factors led to a much worse season than I would have hoped for. The 3-4 finish in the Big East was not terrible (4-3 would have been a good achievement), but the 2-3 OOC season was much worse than I would have thought likely. The end result was a disappointing season and an end to our four-year bowl streak.
The good news about this year is that those two factors -- the QB play and the newness of the system -- both figure to be improved this year. There is no reason to think that the players won't better understand the coaches techniques and schemes. There is also no reason to think that the coaches won't better understand the players strengths and weaknesses and coach accordingly (and I did give the staff credit for making some adjustments in this area as last year wore on). The question is how much of an improvement will we see. Similarly, at QB, we would have expected to be better merely by the triumverate returning for a second bite of the apple with more experience. But the fact that Chandler Whitmer (o.k.?) beat everyone out and took the job, with McEntee and McCummings still back and hopefully improved, means QB play should be significantly better as well. The question is, by how much. The other extraneous factor is that, with WVU gone and only Temple in, I expect this to be a down year for the Big East. While someone (almost anyone) might step up, run through the conference at 6-1 and finish ranked, I'm not sure that any teams other than Louisville have a realistic shot at being one of the best 20 teams in the country this year. (That is different than running through a favorable schedule at 9-3 and being ranked). Cincy? I just don't see the overall talent. Rutgers? Please. When the OL functions as a coherent unit there, it will be the first time in forever. Not to mention the newness of the staff. USF? How many times will people pick this team to achieve something on paper. They return a lot of starters, yes, but from a team that finished a friggin 1-6 in conference. Why is returning a lot of starters a good thing for them?
Now, combine those factors with what we have returning. We have a D that returns 9 starters, many of them multi-year starters that in either '10 or '11 looked like they would be all-League level players. If there are no more struggles with scheme, and if Blidi remains healthy, I expect that the D might be able to shut down pretty much every offense on its schedule. While we have to replace a great Placekicker, we return good longsnappers, punters, kick and punt returners and kickoff specialists. I expect overall special teams play to be better. Offense remains a question mark. How good is Whitmer? How good is Jimmy Bennett and can he play a full season? Do we have a competent TB behind Lyle McCombs, and can you expect a guy that size to duplicate last year's workload without getting banged up at some point? There are no questions that the O has question marks, and that, on paper, you could look at the losses of the Moores, Petrus and Ryan and wonder if it can be worse. But, QB being better is such a huge part of Offense that I would expect even modest gains there. And, I expect the D to be good enough to allow a modest offense to win games.
I don't expect to win at Louisville. I expect to win at home against UMass, Buffalo and Temple. Beyond that, each and every week may be a dogfight. How many of those eight to we get? Question marks remain. However, my bottom line is that this should be a good team, but until I see QB play that is Big East average and an OL that can make up for the fact that it may have fewer All-Conference level performers than it's had in years, I can't say that I believe this will be a very good team that can challenge for a Big East title with four conference road games. So I will go with 8-4, 4-3 in the Big East. But I believe that is a relatively modest projection for this team, and that 9-3 is significantly more likely than 7-5.
See everyone Thursday night.
