The View From Section 241 — Liberty | Page 2 | The Boneyard

The View From Section 241 — Liberty

From The Athletic "Let’s go ahead and start engraving some of those Coach of the Year awards for UConn’s Jim Mora. From the ashes of Randy Edsall’s 6-32 second tenure, Mora has the Huskies (6-5) going bowling after a 36-33 upset of 8-1 Liberty — the same Liberty team that won at Arkansas the week before. One of Mora’s first recruits last January was Ft. Lauderdale QB Zion Turner. His 30-yard TD pass to Kevens Clercius and ensuing two-point conversion with 5:43 left proved the difference."
 
uconnyankee said:
A more established program would not have given 5 years of that performance (lack of)….
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Not sure that's fair considering the circumstances. Edsall bought himself an extra year by not playing.
 
Only credit I will give Edsall is, he did recruit well but for some reason could not develop any of the players due to the incompetent staff that he had and he was just not a players coach.
 
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Guru13 said:
Only credit I will give Edsall is, he did recruit well but for some reason could not develop any of the players due to the incompetent staff that he had and he was just not a players coach.
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Edsall in a nutshell isn't it. Phase 1 he had the coaches to train guys up. He knew how to find lunchpail talent
 
Back home after a flight with no internet — God forbid — so let me make one comment on a discussion I saw elsewhere, and then comment on our offense and defensive performances. I’ve seen some harsh criticism of Charlton. I didn’t like the two gimmick plays that blew up in our face either, and I’m fine thinking they were bad calls. But you can’t judge an OC by bad calls. None of us know where the play should have worked and a player didnt’ execute, or where the D happens to be keying on something against the odds, or even where you took a risk of something going wrong to set something up later. So fine, criticize the call, but recognize you have to judge an OC by the offensive game as a whole. And the interception was totally on Zion. He didn’t see the CB sitting there and threw a ball that never should have been thrown.

O.K., offense and defense. Offensive player of the game was clearly Robert Burns on his senior day. I can argue that he made the two biggest plays of the game — the opening kickoff return off the short squib, which instead of starting us in a hole turned into a big play leading to a short field TD drive that set the tone for the game, and the run in the 2d Q when we were pinned deep and he broke the long 50 yarder leading to our 3d TD. But others had strong games as well. Rosa was outstanding, and the two TDs were both outstanding efforts. Aaron Turner had a big game. ZT, other than the pick, I thought played very well within the offense and his limits. And a shout out to Kevin Clercius. I think it’s fair to say he failed to take advantage of a huge opportunity this year, between his play and the conservativeness of the passing offense, but as we sit here at 6-5 he has made the two decisive plays of the season — yesterday’s TD post pattern and the long sideline reception on the decisive drive against Fresno, which changed the whole season. And the OL, even with all the RB injuries (and Houston did not have any success yesterday beyond his early 15 yard carry, much like the UMass game), they just keep doing their job as we successfully continued running against a D that has shown itself to be very disruptive.

On D, player of the game to me was Eric Watts. We didn’t do a lot of blitzing and gave the QB a lot of time on a lot of possessions, but most of the pressure we got all day was coming from Watt’s efforts and persistence. Not taking anything away from the secondary, which gave up a lot of yards but kept all passes in front of them, Swenson (on his senior day) and MItchell being everywhere, and everyone making plays. This was nowhere near the D’s best effort, but after having been pushed around for a while (we gave up 24 points on 4 consecutive possessions), after the long end around they settled down and said no more.

I’m truly floored our rise up the computer rankings is as slow as it is. We’ve now beaten a Fresno State team headed to the Mountain West championship game and that played two PAC 12 teams tough, a Liberty win that almost beat Wake at Wake and just beat Arkansas at Arkansas, and a BC team that, while not good, just won at NC State. But whether that’s because of how badly we lost the three BCS games early on or something I don’t get, it doesn’t matter. We are a much, much improved football team, not just from last year but from the first five games of this year. Let’s show it against a non good Army team Saturday and make sure we get a chance to show it to someone else in a bowl game.
 
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Massey has us at 111 amongst FBS teams. Sagarin at 110. Our strength of schedule is pretty meh and comparable with the MAC schools. No. We are a badish team with a bad schedule. Darlings or not that's the way things are when facing the computers.
 
Patman said:
Massey has us at 111 amongst FBS teams. Sagarin at 110. Our strength of schedule is pretty meh and comparable with the MAC schools. No. We are a badish team with a bad schedule. Darlings or not that's the way things are when facing the computers.
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So you're saying the computers underestimate UConn worse than Liberty just did.
 
I think the computers reflect the schedule. Using Sagarin, UConn has the 104th hardest schedule which is the weakest UConn schedule since 2002 which was 103.

There are a couple of reasons for this year's schedule rating. First, NC State and Syracuse have faded as both of their starting QBs got hurt. Next, the weaker teams on the schedule were really weak this year: FIU (181), UMass (188), and CCSU (248 out of 262 teams). And, UConn lost to Utah St. (114) and Ball St. (112). Finally, UConn did not have the offense this year to beat up on teams and score against the good teams, especially at the start of the year, so even with the recent wins, the coaches were conservative to ensure the win. All that said, by my eye, UConn is playing much better football now than the computer ranking which is why they beat Fresno St. (66), BC (106), and Liberty (78).

UConn's current Sagarin is 124. Compare it to the recent season ratings:

2022: 124
2021: 190
2019: 180
2018: 180
2017: 135
2016: 154

Even the computers say UConn is a much better team, but in my opinion, not by enough.
 
UConnJim said:
I think the computers reflect the schedule. Using Sagarin, UConn has the 104th hardest schedule which is the weakest UConn schedule since 2002 which was 103.

There are a couple of reasons for this year's schedule rating. First, NC State and Syracuse have faded as both of their starting QBs got hurt. Next, the weaker teams on the schedule were really weak this year: FIU (181), UMass (188), and CCSU (248 out of 262 teams). And, UConn lost to Utah St. (114) and Ball St. (112). Finally, UConn did not have the offense this year to beat up on teams and score against the good teams, especially at the start of the year, so even with the recent wins, the coaches were conservative to ensure the win. All that said, by my eye, UConn is playing much better football now than the computer ranking which is why they beat Fresno St. (66), BC (106), and Liberty (78).

UConn's current Sagarin is 124. Compare it to the recent season ratings:

2022: 124
2021: 190
2019: 180
2018: 180
2017: 135
2016: 154

Even the computers say UConn is a much better team, but in my opinion, not by enough.
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Nice analysis.
 
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uconndogs said:
I’m speechless. I honestly don’t know how Mora did this. His defensive game plan was brilliant.…..and I’ve been meaning to mention this for awhile….the tackling has improved so much I sometimes make sure I’m watching UCONN! And Mitchell and Swenson are playing brilliantly. We have not had a group of backers play like this since Lutrus, Sio and Wilson.

There is still a ton of work to do with the offense, but they are getting it done. I think Rosa may turn out to be quite a surprise for us, to the extent he hasn’t been already. He’s fast and plenty strong. Once he becomes more decisive and loses the head fakes he could be very special. He will end up being an all-purpose back and slot receiver before his career is done.

Congratulations to all involved with the program. Truly inspiring!
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Tackling. Biggest difference by far.
 
Always enjoy your analysis!

I recognize this team has been lucky in terms of turnover margin, but I don’t think it’s as bad as the 2015 team. If I remember correctly, the 2015 defense had a lot of gimmes from offenses, by means or interceptions and fumbles. While this years defense has also been lucky, I think they are helped by our offense being very conservative with the football. Zion turner threw a pick yesterday for the first time since I don’t know when. Long story short, we’ve been lucky, but I also we could be luckier.
 
Nice second write up BL. Watts was a recruit that looked to be able to pass rush and he is breaking through this season. He has had some struggles containing against fast players on edge runs but he is our best DE in a while. Burns is just solid. Runs hard, makes great cuts and protects the ball. I have had my criticisms of Charlton. The end of the first half and start of the second on Saturday were rough but we are winning games with him in his position and it is not an easy one to succeed in. I like him. The 2 point conversion to Marion -his only play of the game- was killer. Clercius is out there grinding week after week and that was a helluva catch on Saturday. Rosa is writing his own story, keeping his shoulders square, his feet going and not going down on the first hit. What a season. Now we have to win on the road. Never easy.
 
UConnJim said:
I think the computers reflect the schedule. Using Sagarin, UConn has the 104th hardest schedule which is the weakest UConn schedule since 2002 which was 103.

There are a couple of reasons for this year's schedule rating. First, NC State and Syracuse have faded as both of their starting QBs got hurt. Next, the weaker teams on the schedule were really weak this year: FIU (181), UMass (188), and CCSU (248 out of 262 teams). And, UConn lost to Utah St. (114) and Ball St. (112). Finally, UConn did not have the offense this year to beat up on teams and score against the good teams, especially at the start of the year, so even with the recent wins, the coaches were conservative to ensure the win. All that said, by my eye, UConn is playing much better football now than the computer ranking which is why they beat Fresno St. (66), BC (106), and Liberty (78).

UConn's current Sagarin is 124. Compare it to the recent season ratings:

2022: 124
2021: 190
2019: 180
2018: 180
2017: 135
2016: 154

Even the computers say UConn is a much better team, but in my opinion, not by enough.
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As someone who likes Sagarin, I think he does a better job with college basketball than college football. He has the Big 12 as the #1 league right now. Yeah.
 
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shizzle787 said:
As someone who likes Sagarin, I think he does a better job with college basketball than college football. He has the Big 12 as the #1 league right now. Yeah.
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I wouldn’t doubt the rankings for that. Conference rankings are based on the average of all teams in the conference, not just the top teams. Look at the bottom of the conferences — Big XII is very competitive.
 
businesslawyer said:
I wouldn’t doubt the rankings for that. Conference rankings are based on the average of all teams in the conference, not just the top teams. Look at the bottom of the conferences — Big XII is very competitive.
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So is the SEC. The SEC is way better top to bottom. I would argue that the B1G is better as well.
 
shizzle787 said:
As someone who likes Sagarin, I think he does a better job with college basketball than college football. He has the Big 12 as the #1 league right now. Yeah.
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Look closer at the ratings. On a simple average basis, Sagarin rates the SEC-West the top group with the B12 second. Sagarin also has a central mean rating which gives a higher weight to the schools in the middle of the conference and progressively less weighting to the higher and lower schools and the central mean rates the B12 1st. Makes sense since the lowest rated B12 team is WVU at #50. B12 is strong in the middle and it is not top or bottom heavy.

If you use the Sagarin ratings now and use them for UConn's games, they are fairly accurate:

Utah St.: Predicts 6.7 point loss and it was 11 point loss.
CCSU: Predicts 33.8 point win and it was a 25 point win.
Syracuse: Predicts 10.5 point loss and it was a 34 point loss.
Michigan: Predicts 37.5 point loss and it was a 59 point loss.
NC St.: Predicts 20.1 point loss and it was a 31 point loss.
Fresno St.: Predicts 9.4 point loss and it was a 5 point win.
FIU: Predicts a 10.8 point win and it was a 21 point win.
Ball St: Predicts a 6.6 point loss and it was a 4 point loss.
BC: Predicts a 2 point loss and it was a 10 point win.
UMass: Predicts a 18 point win and it was a 17 point win.
Liberty: Predicts a 7.3 point loss and it was a 3 point win.

You have to remember, college football has fewer datapoints than college basketball so the statistical models take more time to normalize. And, the Syracuse, Michigan, and NC St., losses were pretty negative for the model and you can see the turn starting with the Fresno St. game.
 
Waquoit said:
So you're saying the computers underestimate UConn worse than Liberty just did.
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No. The computers don't overrated liberty. We took two cactus to the face losses one against nc state and have a lackluster win against a 1-9 CCSU team
 
I think this is a decent discussion about computer rankings. I would add two points as to why computer models may be (in my view) substantially underrating us.

1. The models don’t adjust, or don’t adjust enough, for more recent results. We obviously have been a different team from the Fresno State win, but we’re still weighted down by the three straight blowouts.

2. While many models “compress” blow outs, and pay less attention to the difference between losing by 30 and 35 then they do the difference between winning by 5 and 10, they may not compress results enough. Did we really learn anything from what happens in the Michigan, Syracuse and NC State games after the outcome was decided?

The line against Army, to me, is absurd. If I were in Vegas this week instead of last week, I would place the single largest bet I have ever placed, as to me this is more of a pick ‘em game. Why do the computers start Army as favorites? Largely for these factors. We get no credit for the improvement we’ve made during the season, and the models are impressed by how easily Army blew out opponents in its unimpressive wins versus how badly we lost three games we had little chance in. To me, neither of those factors has much bearing on what should be expected Saturday, and even working hard to see it I don’t see why anyone thinks Army is going to beat us handily.
 
I will say, I ran my "I don't trust it" computer model with each week having .9 less weight multiplicatively (week 0 is basically half weight) and UConn jumps to 91 amongst FBS schools from 103. Take from it what you will.

edit: .8 less weight per week uconn goes to 80.
 
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Patman said:
I will say, I ran my "I don't trust it" computer model with each week having .9 less weight multiplicatively (week 0 is basically half weight) and UConn jumps to 91 amongst FBS schools from 103. Take from it what you will.

edit: .8 less weight per week uconn goes to 80.
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You're really serious about your computer models. I'm very impressed.
 
Guru13 said:
Only credit I will give Edsall is, he did recruit well but for some reason could not develop any of the players due to the incompetent staff that he had and he was just not a players coach.
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Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.
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Mora brought in half a new team with a good deal of P5 transfers and for the most it's Edsall guys that are making the plays and talked about. Edsall was a crappy coach for sure, but he did find talent, just couldn't develop it.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.
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I mean the majority of the players on the roster were recruited by him. Watts, Yates, Durante Jones, J. Mitchell. Swenson was a Diaco recruit. He recruited some good players. But you also have coach them.
 
noeynox said:
I mean the majority of the players on the roster were recruited by him. Watts, Yates, Durante Jones, J. Mitchell. Swenson was a Diaco recruit. He recruited some good players. But you also have coach them.
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Which was somewhat strange since Edsall 1 was noted for how well he DEVELOPED guys who were too raw for the higher rated programs. But I put some of that at least on the assistants he could get during his second run. He had a great offensive line coach in his first run. 2nd time not as much. Same with DC, and he had several very good OCs in his first run. 2nd not so much. I don’t know how much of that was on Edsall and how much was on the AD trying to do this on the cheap. And I am told by someone who is an Edsall friend that he was livid over the move to independence. It is possible he just said the hell with it.
 
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