The top ten programs of the NCAA Tournament Era

[UcMiami]

Since there is so much discussion of probability, I pose a question? Geno said in his post or pre NC presser that the odds were against he and UCONN winning 10 NC and three or four in a row. I would think that each season and each tourney is unique and discreet so each NC odds are independent of how many in the past?

The thing with probability is that it looks at the likely outcome of a series of events, but the probability of an single event (e.g. the 2015 NC game) resets after each previous event - so the probability of Uconn going 10-0 in its next 10 NC games is one number, but should they make the 2016 NC game the probability for winning that single game is whatever the odds for that game are, with no reference to the fact it has won its last 10 in a row.
Same with flipping a coin - probability is 50/50 for heads each time you flip, even if the last 50 flips have been tails.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Since there is so much discussion of probability, I pose a question? Geno said in his post or pre NC presser that the odds were against he and UCONN winning 10 NC and three or four in a row. I would think that each season and each tourney is unique and discreet so each NC odds are independent of how many in the past?

On one hand you have the probability of a discrete event and on the other hand you have the probability of a sequence of independent events. On the third hand, and this is important here, you have the effect of auto-correlation in sequences where independence is presumed when, in fact, the events aren't independent at all. Taking the above example of flipping coins, if the flipper has developed a facility at flipping, the probability of the next flip may not be 50-50.

 

[triaddukefan]

Yeah, and it's really more lopsided than that at the top - 4 of the 5 starters on the national team last summer were UCONN

who was #4 besides Moore, Taurasi, and Bird.

 

[triaddukefan]

Or how about NCAA Champ vs WNBA Champ?

Or how about NCAA Champ (women) vs NCAA Champ (men) ?

 

[xHunt3r]

"You play to win the game!"

who was #4 besides Moore, Taurasi, and Bird.

IIRC... Charles

 

[triaddukefan]

"You play to win the game!"


IIRC... Charles

Oh ok, thanks. I forgot about her.

 

[rvwsleep]

It seems like I'm not the one who needs reading comprehension. I said UConn's dominance began in 2000, not 1994. From 1994 through 1999, Tennessee went to four Final Fours. UConn went to two. Tennessee won three NCs, UConn won one. During those years, Tennessee was better overall. After 2000, as I said, that wasn't the case.

I was comparing the two time frames. The one Alex used starting in 1984 which ran through 2015 and the one RegisteredUconn used which was from 1994 through 2015. Would the analysis have shown an even greater degree of dominance by UConn had 2000 been used as a starting point ? Yes.
But before I go any further, a definition. SINCE -in the intervening period between (the time mentioned) and the time under consideration, typically the present.
This is what I wrote.
"There's no doubt which team has been the most dominant in WCBB since 1994 (UConn). Just as there is no doubt which team had been the most dominant from 1982-1993 (Tennessee)." The intervening period being the time span between 1994 (the time mentioned) and 2015(the present). Was UConn the dominant team every single one of those years ? No. But they were the dominant team over that 22 season span. I used 1994 because it was the starting point of RegisteredUconn's analysis. Did UConn's dominance in WCBB begin in 1994 ? No, but they are still the most dominant team in that time span (1994-2015). Hence, since 1994.
Answer just this one question for me because I think your response will clear everything up. If, as you say, "UConn has not been dominant since 1994." then which team if any has ?

 

[mtsuraider06]

I stand by what I said. From 2000 to now, UConn has been the dominant team.

If you choose to start in 1994, as others have said, you are disregarding 13 years of WCBB before UConn was even on the map. Even after going 35-0 in 1995, you only went to one Final Four until the dominance began in 2000.

I'm not disputing UConn is the dominant team in the sport, it just didn't start in 1994.

 

[rvwsleep]

On one hand you have the probability of a discrete event and on the other hand you have the probability of a sequence of independent events. On the third hand, and this is important here, you have the effect of auto-correlation in sequences where independence is presumed when, in fact, the events aren't independent at all. Taking the above example of flipping coins, if the flipper has developed a facility at flipping, the probability of the next flip may not be 50-50.

Probability as used here pertains to random events (outside of the talented coin flipper). This falls outside of wcbb where skill is involved. Which is why you have a team able to win 90 games in a row.

 

[rvwsleep]

I stand by what I said. From 2000 to now, UConn has been the dominant team.

If you choose to start in 1994, as others have said, you are disregarding 13 years of WCBB before UConn was even on the map. Even after going 35-0 in 1995, you only went to one Final Four until the dominance began in 2000.

I'm not disputing UConn is the dominant team in the sport, it just didn't start in 1994.

I notice you responded in general but without answering my simple question. But then I knew you wouldn't answer it.
Instead, you prefer to go down with a slowly sinking ship.
"If you choose to start in 1994, as others have said, you are disregarding 13 years of WCBB before UConn was even on the map".
I didn't "choose" 1994. That was the year RegisteredUconn used as his starting point for his analysis because that was the year the NCAAT went to 64 teams.
(BTW, I was the one who said "you are disregarding 13 years of WCBB")
I already stated that UConn's dominance didn't start in 1994 in my previous post. But that doesn't prevent them from being the dominant team for that time period (1994-2015)
I'll try this once more and for the last time.

If you "stand by what I said" and you said "UConn has not been dominant since 1994." then which team if any has ?

 

[JS]

I'm not disputing UConn is the dominant team in the sport, it just didn't start in 1994.

And Tennessee's dominance didn't start in 1982 either, though RVW gave the LVs 1982-1988 (when LaTech was the best, with two NCs and two runners-up) as part of giving them the longer period (1982-1994) that was under discussion as a whole.

You want to segment these longer periods, at least in order to highlight the part of the 1994 to date period in which Tennessee was the best. OK, we'll stipulate the LVs were better over the period 1994-1999 and UConn's dominance didn't start immediately in 1994.

If that makes you happy, we can return to the discussion at hand, which is rating programs over the longer "eras" -- the starting points of which were adopted for reasons other than the immediate start of one team's dominance -- including the era adopted by the OP and possible alternative eras.

This whole diversion started over RVW's statement, and I quote: "There's no doubt which team has been the most dominant in WCBB since 1994 (UConn). Just as there is no doubt which team had been the most dominant from 1982-1993 (Tennessee)."

I trust you object to the second sentence as strenuously as you've objected to the first.

 

[EricLA]

Let me make it simple. From 1994 to the present, UCONN has been the most dominant team in WCBB and it's not even close. Since 1994, UCONN has won 10 NC's and been to 14 FF's compared to 5 NC's and 10 FF's for Tenn. Now if you wanted to parse it completely, Tenn was more dominant in 1996-1998 when they won 3 NC's and then again in 2007-2008 when they won 2 in a row.

But overall I don't even get why there is a debate about it. Maybe some people just like to argue for the sake of arguing? UCONN has been the premier college program for 20 years now. And saying UCONN has been the premier program does NOT mean they won the NC every single year. But they have dominated he sport in that 20 year time frame like no other team in history over such a long period of time. Anyone who disputes that is looney tunes.

As JS said, if you pick the starting point of 1994 when the NCAA's went to 64 teams, UCONN has been the most dominant by a very wide margin. UCONN's dominance has been impeded by UNC, Tennessee, Maryland, Notre Dame, Purdue, aTm, and Baylor. While UCONN won almost half of the NCAA championships, those other 5 teams accounted for the remaining 12.

So I guess basically UCONN vs. the world - the world is winning 12-10.

 

[j66kicker]

As JS said, if you pick the starting point of 1994 when the NCAA's went to 64 teams, UCONN has been the most dominant by a very wide margin. UCONN's dominance has been impeded by UNC, Tennessee, Maryland, Notre Dame, Purdue, aTm, and Baylor. While UCONN won almost half of the NCAA championships, those other 5 teams accounted for the remaining 12.

So I guess basically UCONN vs. the world - the world is winning 12-10.

Well for the last 3 years it's UCONN 3 - World 0

 

[Bgillon]

My purpose in providing those math jokes was not to denigrate Alex's work. Just providing a bit of levity to what was becoming contentious.

What I did have in mind was happiness to see that that those results were allowed to appear and stay on this site. If the numbers were reversed and UConn were shown to be #1, they would not be allowed to appear on sites of orange persuasion, let alone be supported by members.

The value of Alex's work is that it gives UConn a goal to shoot for. There is so little else available to keep up the motivation.

Well said. I was just thinking that this is the only site that is thought provoking, encourages differing opinions including from fans of other programs, and makes me anxious for next season!!!

 

[UcMiami]

So using Registered Uconn's system because it is easy to calculate off wicky here are various breakdowns for Uconn and TN:
1982 -1984 (pre Geno) TN 26 - Uconn 0
1985-1989 TN 61 Uconn 1
--- 1982-1989 (80s) TN 87 - Uconn 1
1990-1993 (NCAA old format) TN 34 Uconn 13
1994-1999 TN 84 Uconn 47
--- 1990 - 1999 (90s) TN 118 Uconn 60
2000-2009 (00s) TN 106 Uconn 134
2010-2015 (10s) TN 26 Uconn 100

---Total NCAAs TN 337 Uconn 295
NCAAs 1982 - 1999 TN 205 Uconn 61
NCAAs 1982 - 2009 TN 311 Uconn 195

Total Geno era 1985 - 2015 TN 311 Uconn 295
Total 64 team NCAA era 1994-2015 TN 216 Uconn 281
Total new millennia (2000-2015 TN 132 Uconn 234

 

[UcMiami]

One more:
NCAA 64 team era to 2009 (1994-2009): TN 190 Uconn 181

(Dominance is really very recent 2009 - 2015 TN 27 Uconn 121)

 

[MilfordHusky]

Yeah, and it's really more lopsided than that at the top - 4 of the 5 starters on the national team last summer were UCONN

Sue Bird, NPOY, #1 overall pick
Diana Taurasi, 2-time NPOY, #1 overall pick
Tina Charles, NPOY, #1 overall pick
Maya Moore, 3-time NPOY, #1 overall pick
Britney Griner, 2-time NPOY, #1 overall pick

Geno Auriemma, 10-time NCAA champion, 7-time NCOY

The best lineup ever?

 

[EricLA]

Sue Bird, NPOY, #1 overall pick
Diana Taurasi, 2-time NPOY, #1 overall pick
Tina Charles, NPOY, #1 overall pick
Maya Moore, 3-time NPOY, #1 overall pick
Britney Griner, 2-time NPOY, #1 overall pick

Geno Auriemma, 10-time NCAA champion, 7-time NCOY

The best lineup ever?

Honestly, can't argue one bit with that - one could argue that each of those players area the very best at their position in the world, but if Parker is healthy and on the team I'd consider starting her over Griner or Charles. Other than that, the lineup you listed might be the very best in the history of women's basketball...

 

[Wally East]

Honestly, can't argue one bit with that - one could argue that each of those players area the very best at their position in the world, but if Parker is healthy and on the team I'd consider starting her over Griner or Charles. Other than that, the lineup you listed might be the very best in the history of women's basketball...

If we're talking all=time, I might go with Lisa Leslie over Tina Charles, and, I know how this will sound, but I'd at least consider going with Cynthia Cooper over DT. (Calm down , just considering it. It's a reasonable thing to consider.)

 

[mhshuskies]

On one hand you have the probability of a discrete event and on the other hand you have the probability of a sequence of independent events. On the third hand, and this is important here, you have the effect of auto-correlation in sequences where independence is presumed when, in fact, the events aren't independent at all. Taking the above example of flipping coins, if the flipper has developed a facility at flipping, the probability of the next flip may not be 50-50.

Thanks for the discussion it was as I thought that each season is unique and therefore not dependent upon prior seasons. However the advantage factor was a good point. Geno and staff have figured it out better than any other and they usually have better or at least even talent. So that means Geno was incorrect and UCONN would always have the best odds to win the NC.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Thanks for the discussion it was as I thought that each season is unique and therefore not dependent upon prior seasons. However the advantage factor was a good point. Geno and staff have figured it out better than any other and they usually have better or at least even talent. So that means Geno was incorrect and UCONN would always have the best odds to win the NC.

I think I haven't made myself clear.

Independence means that the outcome for trial #2 is in no way related to the outcome of trial #1. Flipping a coin, rolling a pair of dice, picking a card from a deck are often given as examples of independent events.

The outcome of basketball games or tournaments or seasons aren't independent because many of the factors that influence outcomes remain the same over the several trials. Coaches, players, opponents are, to one extent or other, carried over from game to game and season to season. Those 3 factors are why UConn will be ranked #1 in next year's pre-season poll, probably unanimously.

 

[Gus Mahler]

I think I haven't made myself clear.

Independence means that the outcome for trial #2 is in no way related to the outcome of trial #1. Flipping a coin, rolling a pair of dice, picking a card from a deck are often given as examples of independent events.

The outcome of basketball games or tournaments or seasons aren't independent because many of the factors that influence outcomes remain the same over the several trials. Coaches, players, opponents are, to one extent or other, carried over from game to game and season to season. Those 3 factors are why UConn will be ranked #1 in next year's pre-season poll, probably unanimously.

I enjoy your posts and appreciate your analyses and contributions to this board.

 

[easttexastrash]

If we're talking all=time, I might go with Lisa Leslie over Tina Charles, and, I know how this will sound, but I'd at least consider going with Cynthia Cooper over DT. (Calm down , just considering it. It's a reasonable thing to consider.)

It's hard to omit Swoopes when she was in her prime.

 

[Wally East]

It's hard to omit Swoopes when she was in her prime.

Yup, I thought of her, too. Hard not to.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Trends

We've spoken about the ranking top programs since the beginning of time (1982 in Alex's case, 1994 in mine) but how are the top teams trending? I've taken two additional slices of the data: the last decade and the last 5 years.

The Top Ten programs over the past decade are (values in parens represent the change in rank from the 22 year results):
1. Connecticut (no change).
2. Tennessee (no change).
3. Stanford (no change).
4. Notre Dame (no change).
5. Maryland (up 7).
6. Baylor (up 2).
7. Duke (down 3).
8. Louisville (up 8).
9. Texas A&M (up 8).
10. North Carolina (down 3).

Top Ten over the last 5 years (values in parens represent the change in rank from the 10 year results):
1. Connecticut (no change).
2. Notre Dame (up 2).
3. Baylor (up 3).
4. Texas A&M (up 5).
5. Stanford (down 2).
6. Maryland (down 1).
7. Louisville (up 1).
8. Tennessee (down 6).
9. Duke (down 2).
10. Kentucky (up 5).

Dominance

Dominance is a word that's been kicked around on this thread so I've tried to measure that. I'm using a team's actual performance in comparison to perfection as the measure of of dominance. Previously, I've described my system of measurement as 1 pt. for making the NCAA, 2 pt. for getting to the 2nd round, 3 pts. for Sweet Sixteen, 5 pts. for Elite Eight, 8 pts. for Final Four, 13 pts. for Runner-up, and 21 pts. for Champions. Perfection would be winning the championship (worth 21 points). Over the 22 years of my study, perfection would have been a total score of 462 (21 points times 22 years). For a decade, perfection is 210 points; for 5 years, 105 points. I divided # of points a program actually scored by a perfect score to get a measure of relative dominance.

Relative dominance over 22 years:
1. Connecticut 61%
2. Tennessee 47%
3. Stanford 26%
4. Notre Dame 26%
5. Duke 22%
6. Purdue 20%
7. North Carolina 19%
8. Baylor 18%
9. Georgia 16%
10. LSU 16%

Relative dominance over last decade:
1 Connecticut 66%
2 Tennessee 35%
3 Stanford 34%
4 Notre Dame 33%
5 Maryland 28%
6 Baylor 27%
7 Duke 22%
8 Louisville 21%
9 Texas A&M 21%
10 North Carolina 18%

Relative dominance over last 5 years:
1 Connecticut 75%
2 Notre Dame 57%
3 Baylor 37%
4 Texas A&M 30%
5 Stanford 29%
6 Maryland 25%
7 Louisville 25%
8 Tennessee 22%
9 Duke 19%
10 Kentucky 16%