The three most likely realignment scenarios going forward (with my personal guesses for dominoes)

[shizzle787]

I am going to summarize what I feel are the most likely realignment scenarios based on the reality as of now. In my opinion, the B1G and SEC will NOT go to 24 schools as the money is not there for that. Without further ado, here are my three scenarios:

1. ND maintains the status quo.

The SEC and B1G remain at 16 schools.
The ACC remains at 14.5 schools.
The Pac-12 adds Kansas and Texas Tech.
The Big 12 adds Memphis and USF.
The rest of the Group of 5 stays put.

2. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 18.

The SEC adds UNC and Clemson.
The B1G adds ND and Stanford.
The ACC adds WVU and UConn.
The Pac-12 adds SDSU, UNLV, and Hawaii.
The Big 12 adds SMU.
The MW adds UTEP.
The AAC adds Texas State.
The Sun Belt adds WKU.
The MAC stays put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., and Stephen F. Austin.

3. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 20.

The SEC adds UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami.
The B1G adds ND, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington.
The ACC adds WVU, UConn, Cincy, and UCF.
The Big 12 adds Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado.
The Pac-12 (just OSU and WSU) adds Boise State, SDSU, Fresno State, UNLV,
Nevada, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
The MW (just USU and SJSU) adds UTEP, NMSU, SHSU, LaTech, NDSU, Montana, and SDSU.
The AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., SFA, and Tarleton State.

 

[cheech63]

I am going to summarize what I feel are the most likely realignment scenarios based on the reality as of now. In my opinion, the B1G and SEC will NOT go to 24 schools as the money is not there for that. Without further ado, here are my three scenarios:

1. ND maintains the status quo.

The SEC and B1G remain at 16 schools.
The ACC remains at 14.5 schools.
The Pac-12 adds Kansas and Texas Tech.
The Big 12 adds Memphis and USF.
The rest of the Group of 5 stays put.

2. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 18.

The SEC adds UNC and Clemson.
The B1G adds ND and Stanford.
The ACC adds WVU and UConn.
The Pac-12 adds SDSU, UNLV, and Hawaii.
The Big 12 adds SMU.
The MW adds UTEP.
The AAC adds Texas State.
The Sun Belt adds WKU.
The MAC stays put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., and Stephen F. Austin.

3. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 20.

The SEC adds UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami.
The B1G adds ND, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington.
The ACC adds WVU, UConn, Cincy, and UCF.
The Big 12 adds Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado.
The Pac-12 (just OSU and WSU) adds Boise State, SDSU, Fresno State, UNLV,
Nevada, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
The MW (just USU and SJSU) adds UTEP, NMSU, SHSU, LaTech, NDSU, Montana, and SDSU.
The AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., SFA, and Tarleton State.

Based on #3, I don't think SEC needs Clemson because of the footprint they have in South Carolina with USC or Florida St. because of Florida. Miami may be a possibility do to the fact the state of Florida is huge and they can get a big media outlet in the south. Cincy and UCF are already headed to BIG 12, so that makes no sense. Other than The BIG10 and SEC, I don't care what the rest of those conferences do. We all know Uconn really needs to step up and quickly improve football to get a sniff down the road, because all the other major sports are doing quite well. Lets hope for the best outcome.

 

[huskyblooz]

Well thought out. I would say after Notre Dame, UNC might be the most sought-after school.
I'm curious as to how many teams the Pac-12 add when this round is all done. I don't know if I would add for the sake of size if you're not bringing in marquee names. A week ago, I thought the Big12 was on shaky ground. USC & UCLA leaving, will strengthen the Big12.

Or, does the Pac-12 go on offense and invite Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech?
The Pac-12 is the 'conference of champions'.

Either way, there are 100 schools waiting on Notre Dame.

 

[Stinger92860]

If #1 happens we should be calling the B12.

 

[ScottVib]

If UNC & UVa are in play, the Big Ten will take them before Oregon and Washington. Oregon & Washington get in in a scenario where the ACC teams are not available immediately & Notre Dame joins up and they go to 20.

When the ACC teams come up, the Big Ten will add UNC and UVa, even if it means going to 24 because they already added additional teams out west.

 

[ScottVib]

In my opinion, without a new Grant of Rights in place, I'd be surprised if the Big XII ends up being the merge conference for the Pac-12 remnants. The merger can happen under the Pac-12 umbrella in 2025 and less desirable TV schools can be dropped, leading to a stronger deal. It also allows the Pac-12 schools to avoid partnering with some of the more challenging schools politically in the Big XII (BYU, Baylor) or having to go coast to coast to deal with WVU, Cincy and UCF. Furthermore the most valuable schools in this merger are the Pac-12 schools... why are they going to pay exit fees to try to boost the TV deal for West Virginia?

In your first scenario where the Big Ten goes to 18.. the Pac-12 has an easy call to grab Kansas, Texas Tech & Okla. State. If the Pac-12 loses two more than Houston & Iowa St. would be the next couple of schools to get a call.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If football is consolidating into two conferences, the SEC and Big 10, then why would anyone else not in those two conferences bother to play that sport anymore?

 

[How Sway?!]

I am going to summarize what I feel are the most likely realignment scenarios based on the reality as of now. In my opinion, the B1G and SEC will NOT go to 24 schools as the money is not there for that. Without further ado, here are my three scenarios:

1. ND maintains the status quo.

The SEC and B1G remain at 16 schools.
The ACC remains at 14.5 schools.
The Pac-12 adds Kansas and Texas Tech.
The Big 12 adds Memphis and USF.
The rest of the Group of 5 stays put.

2. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 18.

The SEC adds UNC and Clemson.
The B1G adds ND and Stanford.
The ACC adds WVU and UConn.
The Pac-12 adds SDSU, UNLV, and Hawaii.
The Big 12 adds SMU.
The MW adds UTEP.
The AAC adds Texas State.
The Sun Belt adds WKU.
The MAC stays put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., and Stephen F. Austin.

3. ND joins the B1G and both major leagues go to 20.

The SEC adds UNC, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami.
The B1G adds ND, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington.
The ACC adds WVU, UConn, Cincy, and UCF.
The Big 12 adds Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado.
The Pac-12 (just OSU and WSU) adds Boise State, SDSU, Fresno State, UNLV,
Nevada, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
The MW (just USU and SJSU) adds UTEP, NMSU, SHSU, LaTech, NDSU, Montana, and SDSU.
The AAC, Sun Belt, and MAC stay put.
C-USA adds EKU, McNeese St., SFA, and Tarleton State.

Why would the PAC add Hawaii, what do they add other than airplane miles

 

[shizzle787]

Why would the PAC add Hawaii, what do they add other than airplane miles

In that scenario, the Pac-12 will not have the cache to add a Big 12 school. Most of the other MW programs will be rejected for territorial reasons (CU/CSU, Cal/Fresno State, etc.) or academic ones (Boise State).

 

[bobbyinaz]

Everyone assumes that all of the Little 3 will just backfill if the SEC & B1G go to the 20+ team structure.

In reality there just won't be enough quality schools left to backfill.

It's more likely that the remnants end up joining together amongst themselves to create a nationwide conference based on what TV/streaming sources say makes sense. While this new "conference" could form under one of the Little 3 names it could just as easily call itself The Sea to Shining Sea Conference.

TV/streaming, as with everything else, will define who makes this cut

 

[Greedo]

If football is consolidating into two conferences, the SEC and Big 10, then why would anyone else not in those two conferences bother to play that sport anymore?

Why do 90% of FBS teams bother to play the sport in the current climate?

 

[superjohn]

Everyone assumes that all of the Little 3 will just backfill if the SEC & B1G go to the 20+ team structure.

In reality there just won't be enough quality schools left to backfill.

It's more likely that the remnants end up joining together amongst themselves to create a nationwide conference based on what TV/streaming sources say makes sense. While this new "conference" could form under one of the Little 3 names it could just as easily call itself The Sea to Shining Sea Conference.

TV/streaming, as with everything else, will define who makes this cut

That's the way I see it, Big 10 and SEC will both end up with at least 20 schools each and break away, it will be like NFC and AFC. The likeminded basketball juggernauts should be getting together. It's all really bad for college sports.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Why do 90% of FBS teams bother to play the sport in the current climate?

That is why I am asking the question. In an NIL world. any team can compete for talent if it has sufficient alumni and corporate support. I am actually surprised that the media rights contracts are diverging so far between schools that feel fairly similar to me. I don't really care that much what happens to UCLA or USC. What is the driver of success for schools, and what is the plan for UConn?

 

[Stinger92860]

If football is consolidating into two conferences, the SEC and Big 10, then why would anyone else not in those two conferences bother to play that sport anymore?

That could be the end game, yet the Ivies still play. Of course their endowments are massive.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Everyone assumes that all of the Little 3 will just backfill if the SEC & B1G go to the 20+ team structure.

In reality there just won't be enough quality schools left to backfill.

It's more likely that the remnants end up joining together amongst themselves to create a nationwide conference based on what TV/streaming sources say makes sense. While this new "conference" could form under one of the Little 3 names it could just as easily call itself The Sea to Shining Sea Conference.

TV/streaming, as with everything else, will define who makes this cut

If the conference consolidation is happening because of revenue, that is one thing. Streaming has actually fragmented the content market, so I am less clear on the long-term benefit of far flung conferences forcing content of questionable value on their viewers. I didn't get the Oklahoma/Texas to the SEC on this basis either. Who is the market for a South Carolina/Oklahoma game? These are two schools with no history that are about 1000 miles apart and the game won't be close. Why would a streaming service spend tens of millions for games like that over the long-term? One of the appeals of college sports, and college football in particular, and the reason fans watch a sport that has so many blowouts, is because fans care about the matchups.

The benefit of these consolidations for the teams on the outside is that someone has to lose all of those conference games. Who thinks Texas will average 10 or even 8 wins over the next 10 years? Texas is out of the mix for a Top 20 finish for a while. Same with UCLA and probably one of the better Big 10 teams. Someone has to lose all those games. Competitively, the SEC and Big 10 growing actually creates opportunity for other schools.


On the other hand, if the SEC and Big 10 are going to form their own BCS, then it is more complicated. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 win, maybe they don't, but the outcome is uncertain and the chance of disaster for UConn and for college sports overall is pretty high.

 

[Alum86]

# 3 the most plausible. So for UConn, we leave the Big East for all sports, or is this for FB only? Regardless, we would take it in a heartbeat, yes?

 

[billybud]

I could see leagues of "like culture schools"

Donald Fincher once tried to explain the southern football culture (and I think that includes both Texas and Oklahoma)..

"Much of this phenomenon has to do with regional pride. Whether you think it's good or bad, most of the South could all be one big state as far as cultural things go. There isn't that much difference between an Arkansas fan and a Georgia fan...and we all know it.​

College football is a religion in the South, and we all belong to the same denomination. We may have different church locations (Georgia, Alabama, LSU, etc.) but our denomination is SEC football."​

The Big Ten also has had a common culture that its fans can recognize....But now every conference's culture is supplanted by the arms race and adding programs that bring in the most money. What seems a good fit is not a good fit if the $$$ is not there.

 

[billybud]

I could see the UNC and Virginia, khaki's with a sweater vest crowd in the Big Ten....it is more difficult for me to wrap my mind around these guys hanging with the barbecue stained t shirt crowd of the SEC.

Duke, UNC, and Virginia generally look down their aristocratic noses at their less academically gifted and football oriented brethern.

 

[dayooper]

I could see the UNC and Virginia, khaki's with a sweater vest crowd in the Big Ten....it is more difficult for me to wrap my mind around these guys hanging with the barbecue stained t shirt crowd of the SEC.

Duke, UNC, and Virginia generally look down their aristocratic noses at their less academically gifted and football oriented brethern.

While I agree with this, would ESPN make it more difficult to move? I think those 3 along with GT would fit very well academically and athletically. GT has a relationship with ND, which we know is the Big10’s white whale.

The biggest question after what ND decides is what do the ACC schools do? If UNC and UVA eventually go to the Big10 and they stop at 24, does the SEC follow suit? Are there 8 teams that make sense for them to go to 24? I can see 20 easily (FSU, Clemson, Miami and VPI). Where would the other schools come from? Pitt? Kansas for basketball? I don’t see 4 more schools that make sense.

 

[Kolumbo]

Option 4 - B1G and SEC eventually round out their line ups with the programs still missing from the big boys table (Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Clemson, Florida State, UNC, etc) resulting in about 40-50 in total. The rest, who knows.

Rutgers ended up winning the mega lotto because it checked all but one of the B1G boxes. Football. It still got an invite. No one was talking about USC and UCLA to the B1G because it didn't check the location boxes and yet there they go, completely different strategy. We want answers now but it's entirely a crap shoot. I'm optimistic about UCONN Football because no, it won't end up in either ubersleague, and outside of that, it probably doesn't matter where it ends up, as long as it's playing football. It could very well end up in whatever conference(s) result from the ACC/Big 12/PAC 12 or it could be independent for a while. Regardless, it and 110 other programs are not winning a national championship any time soon. Go Huskies!

 

[superjohn]

I could see the UNC and Virginia, khaki's with a sweater vest crowd in the Big Ten....it is more difficult for me to wrap my mind around these guys hanging with the barbecue stained t shirt crowd of the SEC.

Duke, UNC, and Virginia generally look down their aristocratic noses at their less academically gifted and football oriented brethern.

Umm, that's not accurate at all. SEC football is a prep fest on gameday.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

As a fan, would you prefer rooting for a 2-10 team in the Big 10 or a 10-2 team in the ACC or Big 10?

 

[billybud]

Prepfest?

LOL... Naw.

Florida Gators fans during the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores...

Florida Gators fans during the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators on October 9, 2021 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fl.

www.gettyimages.ca

LSU...

 

[billybud]

 

[Stinger92860]

If the conference consolidation is happening because of revenue, that is one thing. Streaming has actually fragmented the content market, so I am less clear on the long-term benefit of far flung conferences forcing content of questionable value on their viewers. I didn't get the Oklahoma/Texas to the SEC on this basis either. Who is the market for a South Carolina/Oklahoma game? These are two schools with no history that are about 1000 miles apart and the game won't be close. Why would a streaming service spend tens of millions for games like that over the long-term? One of the appeals of college sports, and college football in particular, and the reason fans watch a sport that has so many blowouts, is because fans care about the matchups.

The benefit of these consolidations for the teams on the outside is that someone has to lose all of those conference games. Who thinks Texas will average 10 or even 8 wins over the next 10 years? Texas is out of the mix for a Top 20 finish for a while. Same with UCLA and probably one of the better Big 10 teams. Someone has to lose all those games. Competitively, the SEC and Big 10 growing actually creates opportunity for other schools.


On the other hand, if the SEC and Big 10 are going to form their own BCS, then it is more complicated. Maybe the SEC/Big 10 win, maybe they don't, but the outcome is uncertain and the chance of disaster for UConn and for college sports overall is pretty high.

What will happen to the bowl games? Will most bowls be P2, even those with losing records vs. a non P2 opponent?