The Substitution Conundrum

[huskyd]

Last year when the Husky bench was pretty thin, the same group got most of the minutes. Kiah Stokes and Saniya Chong were the principal subs. This year things are different, and Geno addressed the problem on the “GA Show” last night on SNY.

According to Coach, the choppiness in this year's team has to do with the changed substitution patterns. He can't use the same players as much of the time because of the need to include women who will be important next year. When different combinations of players are on the floor, the team suffers on both ends of the court because of the lack of familiarity. Geno's dilemma is to get his regulars enough time AND to work in the newbies.

Another factor Coach mentioned: he hasn't been able to replace the loss of Stokes and Kaleena with any two players. So Collier and Gabby have been duking it out for the 5th spot, and Geno is trying to use Lou and Butler as much as he can. It's possible that Lou will emerge for the rest of this season as a starter, Napheesa and Gabby subbing in. Saniya can spell the guards when she's healthy; Butler can do the same for the interior players. I think that we're all aware that things aren't looking quite as tidy as we're used to seeing, but 99-1 (all wins by double digits) is a problem most teams would love to have.

 

[Kaizen]

I will think KLS will start in next game...

 

[EricLA]

I will think KLS will start in next game...

You may be right. At the start of the year, I thought Collier was more "college ready" and more likely to start over KLS. That bore out with injuries to Bulter and Chong pretty much leaving the only other starting spot up for grabs between KLS, Collier and Gabby.

Gabby started out like an AA, then hit a wall. got replaced by Collier, which was not a surprise but... I think KLS has at least as much upside and is showing that her all court game and fantastic improvement is making the decision on who to start a tough one for Geno. I've not seen enough games (don't have SNY) to know if Collier's first half performances are as good as Lou's. In the Memphis game, Lou came in and was more consistent with assists and scoring, and Lou didn't even score her 4th point till late in the 4th quarter (I think). Collier doesn't seem to do much scoring when she's in the games in the first half - not sure if she's deferring or what the deal is but... Lou is a more consistent scoring threat right now...

If Lou is more productive from the get-go, it makes more sense to start her to give 5 legit scoring threats on the court to start the game. Bring in Gabby and Napheesa to spell the 3 and 4 spots, Chong to spell Nurse and Moriah, and Natalie to spell Morgan or Stewie... And get Courtney as much PT as possible - if she can really develop her ball handling and guard skills, she could be a valid backup to the guards. But without a terrific 3 point shot, I worry she will sink further on the depth chart with Molly and Crystal coming in next year. By all accounts, Molly is much better than her ranking and works her off. We all know Crystal is a future NLK nominee so Ekmark has her work cut out for her...

 

[CocoHusky]

Conundrum? There is no conundrum. Every coach in America would gladly trade places with Geno. A real conundrum would be not having enough players that you can plug in to get the job done. Does Geno start Gabby, Natalie, KLS, Collier, or Saniya? We sent Geno a very scientific poll, the only conundrum is why he deliberately chose to ignore it.

 

[USFMB]

Conundrum? There is no conundrum. Every coach in America would gladly trade places with Geno. A real conundrum would be not having enough players that you can plug in to get the job done. Does Geno start Gabby, Natalie, KLS, Collier, or Saniya? We sent Geno a very scientific poll, the only conundrum is why he deliberately chose to ignore it.

I agree! The talent level at UCONN is something else!! USF would love to have that problem.

 

[PhillyCoach]

I will think KLS will start in next game...

What we have seen recently is a better overall offensive flow with Lou in the game. Geno loves her high post passing, her quick decisions to pass, and the quick flick passes we have seen in the past few games. Besides flow and chemistry, Geno knows that Lou can score at will. If defense is the primary need then Collier is a solid defender, a shot blocker, rebounder, and is stealing the ball at a high rate. Like Stokes, offensive is secondary. However, Collier will be a scorer in the future.
Gabby is the secret weapon off the bench. Instant energy, defense, rebounds, and inside scoring--with steals coming more often too. Gabby is driving a little more and is drawing the fouls--with a good FT shooting %. Her mid-range jumper is coming on strong.

IMHO this is the team that will be driving to the NC. Geno trusts the big 4 of course. He trusts Lou and Gabby. Collier is a marginal trust. Butler will be used this year, but is not in the "trust mix." Like Gabby last year--Butler will be used, but not in the big games. Butler will be prepared for next year. A long term healthy Chong is valuable and Geno has some trust in her as a back-up. If she continues to struggle with injuries, then Chong will not be on the playing list much this year--too inconsistent. Ekmark has improved, but will have to wait till next year.
The 5th starter went from Gabby to Collier to Lou. Geno is happy for now and I think it is the starting 5 unless something breaks down. Gabby in first, then Collier, and if healthy--Chong comes in. Don't see Butler in any significant games. Remember last year, even Stokes did not play much in the South Carolina game and a few others. Gabby last year played in no significant games.
As we all know from the past, Geno will play the starters for 40 minutes each if necessary. The training, conditioning, and mind-set is in place to play the whole game. Who can beat UConn if the starters play 35 to 40 minutes each?

 

[Bigpetunia]

What we have seen recently is a better overall offensive flow with Lou in the game. Geno loves her high post passing, her quick decisions to pass, and the quick flick passes we have seen in the past few games. Besides flow and chemistry, Geno knows that Lou can score at will. If defense is the primary need then Collier is a solid defender, a shot blocker, rebounder, and is stealing the ball at a high rate. Like Stokes, offensive is secondary. However, Collier will be a scorer in the future.
Gabby is the secret weapon off the bench. Instant energy, defense, rebounds, and inside scoring--with steals coming more often too. Gabby is driving a little more and is drawing the fouls--with a good FT shooting %. Her mid-range jumper is coming on strong.

IMHO this is the team that will be driving to the NC. Geno trusts the big 4 of course. He trusts Lou and Gabby. Collier is a marginal trust. Butler will be used this year, but is not in the "trust mix." Like Gabby last year--Butler will be used, but not in the big games. Butler will be prepared for next year. A long term healthy Chong is valuable and Geno has some trust in her as a back-up. If she continues to struggle with injuries, then Chong will not be on the playing list much this year--too inconsistent. Ekmark has improved, but will have to wait till next year.
The 5th starter went from Gabby to Collier to Lou. Geno is happy for now and I think it is the starting 5 unless something breaks down. Gabby in first, then Collier, and if healthy--Chong comes in. Don't see Butler in any significant games. Remember last year, even Stokes did not play much in the South Carolina game and a few others. Gabby last year played in no significant games.
As we all know from the past, Geno will play the starters for 40 minutes each if necessary. The training, conditioning, and mind-set is in place to play the whole game. Who can beat UConn if the starters play 35 to 40 minutes each?

I think your analysis is pretty spot-on. From a UConn WBB fan perspective, one of the most interesting exercises, each year, lies in observing Geno tinker with his available lineup choices until he gets the combination he wants. It is clear that in his pursuit of the "trust mix" to which you refer, regular-season concerns always take a back seat to the eye he has on tourney time, plus the eye he always maintains on "next year." Therefore, emerging talents like Lou and Napheesa will inevitably be in the mix, and we know he quite understandably loves Gabby's explosiveness off the bench. But we also know that the bench gets much shorter when the tourney rolls around, with, except in the case of blowout wins, a rotation of no more than seven players to be anticipated. This is unfortunate for Natalie, Courtney, and, especially, Saniya, but at least two will see expanded roles next year.

 

[UcMiami]

I think this is a yearly issue for all coaches and most coaches reduce their rotation in big games and the NCAAs for just that reason. The one situation for Geno, where he has pretty unlimited options is the national coaching gig, and there he handled it almost like hockey line changes - frequently subbing 3-5 players at a time. In that way he kept that familiarity and chemistry with two somewhat separate groups of players rather than making each player develop chemistry with a infinitely changing four other players.

 

[CocoHusky]

I will think KLS will start in next game...

I agree but the next game doesn't matter. Fast forward to SC game and I like KLS starting because we win 4 of the 5 defensive matchups and all of the offensive matchups should SC choose not to cross match.
KLS on Roy
Morgan on Coates
Stewie on Wilson
Kia on Mitchell
Moriah on Sessions

 

[Monte]

I will think KLS will start in next game...

Yes, I think she is starting to understand what is expected of her. She can make herself a great force "inside," as well as on the perimeter. You could see her improvement in the Memphis game.

 

[boontonbomber]

Being able to give so many players plenty of minutes in preparation for next season is an unexpected positive from playing in such a weak conference.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I agree but the next game doesn't matter. Fast forward to SC game and I like KLS starting because we win 4 of the 5 defensive matchups and all of the offensive matchups should SC choose not to cross match.
KLS on Roy
Morgan on Coates
Stewie on Wilson
Kia on Mitchell
Moriah on Sessions

Mo would most likely guard Mitchell as she did in last year's game shutting her down once she was face guarding.

 

[Carnac]

What we have seen recently is a better overall offensive flow with Lou in the game. Geno loves her high post passing, her quick decisions to pass, and the quick flick passes we have seen in the past few games. Besides flow and chemistry, Geno knows that Lou can score at will. If defense is the primary need then Collier is a solid defender, a shot blocker, rebounder, and is stealing the ball at a high rate. Like Stokes, offensive is secondary. However, Collier will be a scorer in the future.
Gabby is the secret weapon off the bench. Instant energy, defense, rebounds, and inside scoring--with steals coming more often too. Gabby is driving a little more and is drawing the fouls--with a good FT shooting %. Her mid-range jumper is coming on strong.

IMHO this is the team that will be driving to the NC. Geno trusts the big 4 of course. He trusts Lou and Gabby. Collier is a marginal trust. Butler will be used this year, but is not in the "trust mix." Like Gabby last year--Butler will be used, but not in the big games. Butler will be prepared for next year. A long term healthy Chong is valuable and Geno has some trust in her as a back-up. If she continues to struggle with injuries, then Chong will not be on the playing list much this year--too inconsistent. Ekmark has improved, but will have to wait till next year.
The 5th starter went from Gabby to Collier to Lou. Geno is happy for now and I think it is the starting 5 unless something breaks down. Gabby in first, then Collier, and if healthy--Chong comes in. Don't see Butler in any significant games. Remember last year, even Stokes did not play much in the South Carolina game and a few others. Gabby last year played in no significant games.
As we all know from the past, Geno will play the starters for 40 minutes each if necessary. The training, conditioning, and mind-set is in place to play the whole game. Who can beat UConn if the starters play 35 to 40 minutes each?

Excellent observation. You are absolutely correct. Remember 2 years ago when KML was injured, and had to be replaced in the starting line-up? First they tried Brianna Banks, then Chong. With KML out of the lineup, the flow (chemistry) was disrupted. It was not the same. Even some of the players mentioned it.
Geno referenced that same "flow" dynamic in an interview this week. He talked bout not substituting the starters out early in blowouts. He said he can't always do that because it weakens their defense.

He has to make sure the core group spends enough time on the floor during games to establish "chemistry" and flow. Your 40 minutes each reference was spot on. Last year Muffet McGraw said the same thing. She said she kept waiting for Geno to substitute some of his starters (so ND could try an make a run), but he never did. She admitted that she didn't expect him to do that.