The SI "experts"

[cohenzone]

Some of the "expert" reasoning is questionable. Picking FL is totally reasonable. UConn has surprised and delighted me. I did I have them getting as far as the Eight but losing to MSU. Comparing this year's team to 99 is, IMHO, pretty far out there. That team, if it had a weakness, it was in post scoring, but not in post presence. The team had few big weaknesses and was probably the most mentally and maybe physically tough team we've ever had. Duke's superiority was blown out of proportion, especially as to UConn, by people who hadn't paid attention to just how good UConn was. To me, the 2011 team is a much closer comparison in terms of the likelihood of a big run by beating several more highly seeded teams, even though I thought UConn was better than a 7 seed.

I was away a lot this year, so didn't see the LVille massacre or either of the SMU games, but I guess my doubts about them springing several "upsets" was based on those games as well as how shaky they were in the loss to Stanford, one of the games I got to in person. The differences between our guys now and when we played UF early are several. Aside from Napier's pretty consistent high levels, RB has settled way down. Team D is way better. Giffey has become a good scoring option and at the moment, is rebounding pretty well. That, among other things has nailed Omar to the bench whereas he was seen early on as a key to success. Kromah has been a find on D and sometimes on O (except I don't like that I think he sometimes sees himself as scoring option 1) and Samuel fits in very well. At the moment, DD seems to be in an aggressive mode. Our two young posts are improving on D and on the boards, but that is where our weakest exploitable spot is. Tyler is not the worst option as an alternative if necessary. It'll be interesting to watch. Go Huskies.

 

[pj]

Florida did make a closing run in the December game by playing Louisville-style pressure defense. I think that and the Louisville games have showed them how to disrupt UConn's offense. On the other side our defense is much, much better than in December. Their offense is improved but mainly in depth, and they can only play 5 guys at a time. I think it is a defensive struggle but if Deandre and Giffey can score from the perimeter, that helps a lot. If the rims are tight and the outside shots are not falling, it will be even more of a defensive struggle. Then the officials might decide the game.

 

[UConnJim]

I have tremendous respect for Florida and I think they are a great team and Billy Donovan is a great coach, probably the best younger coach in college basketball. They have some very physical inside players that worry me. I think this will be a really good, hard fought game.

A couple of things to think about that the experts brought up. First on Walker and Hill for Florida. Hill is averaging 5.5 pts/gm and shot 41% FG, 14.3% 3 Pt FG, 66% FT. Walker has played 85 minutes all season, is averaging 2.0 pts/gm and has hit 2 FTs all season. These are two difference makers? Also, just as Florida is a better team than they were in December, so is UConn. Brimah and Nolan have improved considerably and Samuel has become an impact player.

Finally, Florida has a season FT % of 66.7% with only 2 of their top 10 players hitting >70%. UConn is hitting 77.3% of their FTs and 8 of the top 10 players are hitting >70%. In close games, isn't FT shooting critical?

 

[Husky25]

I don't think anyone was coming this team to the 99 team. I certainly wasn't. The comparison is the degree to which UConn's opponent is soo much better than UConn. I don't mind that everyone is underrating UConn. It plays into their, Nobody believes in us," mantra. But keep in mind that the team UConn is playing tomorrow will not be wearing suits and ties. Coach Donovan has been in this position a few time in his career. He'll prepare his team as best he can. Ollie will do the same and we'll see who's playing on Monday by the end of the day. There is a positive-non-zero% chance that UConn will pull it off.

 

[Marat]

Finally, Florida has a season FT % of 66.7% with only 2 of their top 10 players hitting >70%. UConn is hitting 77.3% of their FTs and 8 of the top 10 players are hitting >70%. In close games, isn't FT shooting critical?

Very good points above, and just wanted to comment about the FT shooting myself. The 'experts' have not really been focusing on this at all. UConn has been scorching red hot from the free throw line - like 88%. When they get the ball into Bazz, Boat, Daniels, they are money at the FT line. This is an advantage for UConn that many experts are not mentioning (and it may just decide the game).

Steve Nash Drill - UConn FTs
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/how-a-...ance-deep-into-ncaa-tournament-040824027.html

 

[WestCoastHusky]

We have the best player in the country. We will always have a shot. People that think FL will win for sure haven't been watching us play. We can and will take down the Gators.

 

[HomeKing93]

If Walker makes his 2 point average, we are doooooooomed!

 

[tcf15]

Jay Wright was just on ESPN radio. I only heard the beginning, but he said Nova tried to turn UConn over and they couldn't. He said if game is close UConn has a shot.

Like Mike Tyson's quote - "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." I expect Ollie to come up with something that will "KO" Florida and knock them out.

That's exactly what happened in the MSU game. MSU went down to Payne early and immediately UConn swarmed him with 3 players, and as champs noted, that set the tone for the rest of the game. It seemed to send MSU's gameplan in a tailspin that UConn was able to take advantage of.

Like you said, here's to the same thing happening against Florida.

 

[upstater]

We have the best player in the country. We will always have a shot. People that think FL will win for sure haven't been watching us play. We can and will take down the Gators.

We're Doomed.

 

[Hume]

To quote Rothstein "this is Shabazz's world, we only live in it."

 

[Wolferowski]

 

[Scot-e]

DOOMED!!!!!!!

 

[FfldCntyFan]