The Power of The 10-0 Run

[caw]

I think just referencing the last 4 national champions isn't large enough of a sample size to take this statistic too seriously.

Not sure there are enough data points even if you took it back to the start of the field of 64, if you are only looking at NC's.

 

[AdamaNation]

Does anyone else think Duke is an upset candidate against Oral Roberts? If Duke didn’t win in the ACC I’d be sure of it.

Nice. After this study I’m wanting some Oral….to finish the job.

 

[businesslawyer]

That is exactly where a team would want to be on the graph as far as winning goes. No shock to see our company there. But I don’t feel like we give up so few runs. So many teams have made big runs against us in games, in part due to DH’s TO management

Please don‘t take this personally, but here is the thing about numerical analyses — they do not care how you feel. Only what has actually happened.

 

[7774]

Sure, the arbitrary nature of defining things is what makes statistics so “fun” lol and like I said, a 15-2 run won’t be included there, which is certainly a killer.

Even this weird point you're trying to make isn't actually true. Some would be included, and some wouldn't be.

 

[ctchamps]

The value of sustained runs is two fold.

First it takes the wind out of the opposing team. It demoralizes players.

Second it has an impact on fans. And fans impact players.

A back and forth game doesn’t have this type of impact.

So it’s another aspect of the game to consider and statistical analysis unsurprisingly shows a correlation with success and frequency of having runs.

This is the way! I have spoken!

 

[Tenspro2002]

For those not inclined to click a link and read an article: View attachment 85169

Interesting that Iona is at the upper-right of this plot, a lot of runs both ways. That's not surprising with a high-variance pressing style.

That shows we have to be vigilant, pounce on them when they're down, and stop momentum if they get going in the middle of the game. (No, I'm not wildly concerned about them cutting a 20 point lead to 10 with 3 minutes to go.)

 

[tykurez]

I think just referencing the last 4 national champions isn't large enough of a sample size to take this statistic too seriously.

Yea Evan acknowledged that and said he’s going to track this going forward.

 

[UConnSwag11]

An interesting metric now that I'm safe.

Guess who is in 99% of the time for our runs?

 

[ctchamps]

Guess who is in 99% of the time for our runs?

DC. And you’re here 100% of the time letting us know when something supports your case for playing him more. He should hire you as his agent. You may not be qualified to represent him but you’d work your tail off for him.

This is the way! I have spoken!

 

[Tenspro2002]

"A 20-0 run leads to a win 91% of the time"

Frankly, I'm stunned that this isn't higher. A team that withstands a 20-0 run wins 1/11 times? I would have guessed closer to 1/100. Wow.

 

[Mots010]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

 

[ctchamps]

"A 20-0 run leads to a win 91% of the time"

Frankly, I'm stunned that this isn't higher. A team that withstands a 20-0 run wins 1/11 times? I would have guessed closer to 1/100. Wow.

Are you really shocked or or you trying to impress us. Nerd!

This is the way! I have spoken!

 

[NJHusky]

Even this weird point you're trying to make isn't actually true. Some would be included, and some wouldn't be.

Possibly…u don’t know.

 

[UConnSwag11]

DC. And you’re here 100% of the time letting us know when something supports your case for playing him more. He should hire you as his agent. You may not be qualified to represent him but you’d work your tail off for him.

This is the way! I have spoken!

Good thing Hurley decided to play him a bit this year. Don’t want to worry about him transferring!

 

[UConnSwag11]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

That’s why it’s not all about metrics. The computers didn’t know what to do with us this year. We broke the system

 

[businesslawyer]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

We did underperform. If we had won half our games that were up for grabs at the last TV time out -- and you hope a team as good as us would win more than half of them -- we would have had at least 2 more wins and we'd be a 2 seed.

 

[ctchamps]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

That’s why it’s not all about metrics. The computers didn’t know what to do with us this year. We broke the system

The metric that fits us for this failure is the luck metric. We have a team of players that play tight in close games or when pressure builds. If these players stop worrying about failing and letting people down they have the capabilities to beat anyone. It’s a case of caring too much.

This is the way! I have spoken!

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Second it has an impact on fans. And fans impact players.

This is the way! I have spoken!

Them's fightin' words around these parts.

 

[Scrutineer]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

Dig deeper to find the reason: 98% of the time a team loses 6 out of 8 games in the middle of a season they get seeded lower than a three..........

 

[gtcam]

I'm just waiting for someone to state "it's already March 15 and DH still hasn't won a tournament game here".

You just did

 

[SubbaBub]

We are definitely analytics national champs. Shot quality, kill shots, ken pom, etc are all very impressive. I just wish it translated into 2-3 more wins. Here we sit with 8 losses and 4 seed. I like our chances to get to the sweet 16, but it still feels like we underperformed a bit.

It's the variance that kills you.

 

[navery12]

 

[phillionaire]

shows what those eggheads know