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Whether the suits can strike a deal to make sure that, at 6-6, we go to a bowl game as an Indy or not, 6-6 is the obvious goal for next year. Now that the schedule has come out, it breaks down pretty easily.
We play three teams at home that are currently above 140 in the Sagarins: Maine, ODU and UMass. While the first two might have been better than us this year per the computers, if any of those games next year are lost it becomes absolutely fair to ask whether Esall's "slow rebuild" is in fact a non-rebuild. These all have to be wins, period.
We play five P-5 teams: Indiana at home and UVA, UNC, Ole Miss and Illinois on the road. All of these teams are grouped between 32 and 61 in the Sagarins. While at Illinois and Indiana may be our best shots, realistically neither progress nor bowl eligibility requires winning any of these games.
We then play four teams who, while not good by any stretch, are between 92 and 141 in the Sagarins and had much better years than us: Army, Liberty and Middle (MTSU) at home and at San Jose State. We close the year @ S.J. State, and home to Middle and Army. If we don't split those 4 games at a minimum, I don't know where we're going. If we get 2 wins, a 5-7 year would certainly be progress. But if we get 2, I want 3 and bowl eligibility. The hardest games this year would have been Army, which is the best of the 4 teams, and at SJSU just because it's a long road trip. So as the season progresses, measured not by eye tests but Ws, I want to beat Liberty and be at 4--5 going into that last three game stretch. Then it will be time to see how much improvement there has been and how badly the team wants it.
I will do a 241 at the end of the season, but I will make one point here: getting better as a football team and learning how to win are not the same thing. We got better as a football team. Our progress, however, is very hard to measure or care about because we were not able to do what we had to do to win winnable games. That has to come next year. Just as the basketball team struggled with it against Xavier and St. Joes, you have to have belief and desire -- not just talent -- to win games that could go either way.
We play three teams at home that are currently above 140 in the Sagarins: Maine, ODU and UMass. While the first two might have been better than us this year per the computers, if any of those games next year are lost it becomes absolutely fair to ask whether Esall's "slow rebuild" is in fact a non-rebuild. These all have to be wins, period.
We play five P-5 teams: Indiana at home and UVA, UNC, Ole Miss and Illinois on the road. All of these teams are grouped between 32 and 61 in the Sagarins. While at Illinois and Indiana may be our best shots, realistically neither progress nor bowl eligibility requires winning any of these games.
We then play four teams who, while not good by any stretch, are between 92 and 141 in the Sagarins and had much better years than us: Army, Liberty and Middle (MTSU) at home and at San Jose State. We close the year @ S.J. State, and home to Middle and Army. If we don't split those 4 games at a minimum, I don't know where we're going. If we get 2 wins, a 5-7 year would certainly be progress. But if we get 2, I want 3 and bowl eligibility. The hardest games this year would have been Army, which is the best of the 4 teams, and at SJSU just because it's a long road trip. So as the season progresses, measured not by eye tests but Ws, I want to beat Liberty and be at 4--5 going into that last three game stretch. Then it will be time to see how much improvement there has been and how badly the team wants it.
I will do a 241 at the end of the season, but I will make one point here: getting better as a football team and learning how to win are not the same thing. We got better as a football team. Our progress, however, is very hard to measure or care about because we were not able to do what we had to do to win winnable games. That has to come next year. Just as the basketball team struggled with it against Xavier and St. Joes, you have to have belief and desire -- not just talent -- to win games that could go either way.
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