The Official 2015 Mets Thread

[mets1090]

Runs and RBI are also largely dependent on having good players in front of you and behind you, something he has pretty obviously lacked most years since 2008.

.285 with 15+ HRs and 30 doubles in the post steroid era are pretty solid marks for a 3B. And his double and home run rates (per AB) were very solid in his 28-30 year old seasons. It wasn't until he played through the shoulder injury last year that his performance dropped off. If he stays healthy this year he'll earn every penny of his $20M. He very clearly looks stronger than he was last year so it just takes a little bit of luck to stay on the field for 140 games.

 

[zyron]

Those numbers from 3B are worth 20M. .

Unless you count ARod, he is the highest paid 3B in the game, so how are those numbers worth it?

 

[8893]

F v ck. Wright hammy. Cuddyer HBP in left hand and had to leave the game. Cursed.

 

[zyron]

F v ck. Wright hammy.

Oh, he is hurt again, I guess he isn't going to earn his salary, again.

 

[mets1090]

Depending on who you talk to, a marginal win is valued at roughly $6-7MM for a free agent. In the last 3 years, Wright has averaged just under $3MM. Ridiculous bargain.

Even last year when he "didn't earn his salary," he was at just a shade over $7MM. 2 years ago, his numbers were so good that even though he missed almost a 3rd of the season, he produced a value comparable to an All Star. And that's as a counting stat, not a projection.

His value is right where it needs to be. If he misses 50 games, there is still a pretty decent change that he hits a 3.0 WAR which would be fairly valuaed at $20MM for a free agent in most people's eyes. That's how good he actually is. If he plays 135 games, $20MM will probably be a bargain.

 

[Deepster]

2 starts from Harvey: 2-0, 12 IP, 9 hits, 3 runs, 1 BB, 17 K's.

Struck out 5 of the first 6 batters last night. Seemed to run out of gas a little late and that's understandable, especially with the adrenaline of the crowd and his conditioning. I haven't felt anything like the buzz he generates since Doc was in his prime.

 

[mets1090]

2 starts from Harvey: 2-0, 12 IP, 9 hits, 3 runs, 1 BB, 17 K's.

Struck out 5 of the first 6 batters last night. Seemed to run out of gas a little late and that's understandable, especially with the adrenaline of the crowd and his conditioning. I haven't felt anything like the buzz he generates since Doc was in his prime.

Santana in the second half of 2008 was similar to this. A second half with an 8-0 record and 2.17 ERA will do that. Easily forgotten since the rest of the team collapsed around him though.

Harvey's buzz is bigger because Santana was viewed as a guy that was helping the Mets keep that window open for a few more years whereas Harvey is seen as the future/face of the franchise.

 

[Dove]

What the hell was up with Ryan last night. He froze Harvey up for 7 minutes on a stoopid review of a hit batter. Yeah, I know having Galvis up is better than Utley but man. That was dumb. Ron Darling was pissed.

 

[Deepster]

Don't look now, but the Metsies are 8-3 and Big Sexy Bartolo is 3-0. Familia with 5 saves? The Nats off to a rocky start. Yup, I'm all in.

 

[8893]

Don't look now, but the Metsies are 8-3 and Big Sexy Bartolo is 3-0. Familia with 5 saves? The Nats off to a rocky start. Yup, I'm all in.

Great start, and it feels great to have hope and be watching every game again, but I gotta see us keep this up for a couple months before I'm allowing myself to get giddy.

 

[noeynox]

Degrom gave up a 2r Hr in the 1st inning of his first game and nothing since.

 

[8893]

Gutty win today. Costly too, though, with two more injuries to starters.

Amazing start though.

 

[superjohn]

Harvey was sick as a dog today, just tough of him to gut out the start. Mets are playing well but the injuries are piling up.

 

[mets1090]

Great start, and it feels great to have hope and be watching every game again, but I gotta see us keep this up for a couple months before I'm allowing myself to get giddy.

I won't be giddy until they're ~60 games in and in first place. Until then I'll just stick with sarcastic, over the top enthusiasm (rooted in actual hope).

 

[zyron]

Depending on who you talk to, a marginal win is valued at roughly $6-7MM for a free agent. In the last 3 years, Wright has averaged just under $3MM. Ridiculous bargain.

A player with a 2.0 WAR is considered a reserve level player. So a reserve level player is valued at $12-14 million a year? Mike Trout is a $55-64 million dollar a year player based on his last three years?

 

[mets1090]

A player with a 2.0 WAR is considered a reserve level player. So a reserve level player is valued at $12-14 million a year? Mike Trout is a $55-64 million dollar a year player based on his last three years?

The general rule of thumb is 2.0+ is starting level, 5.0 is All Star and 8.0 is MVP.

A starting level player is worth about $12 million in today's free agent market. All stars are worth in the low $20 range. Scherzer, for example, has averaged a 5.6 WAR the last 3 years. He was just given $30M per year which works out to ~$5.4M per WAR. When you factor in the length of the contract, an assumed drop in performance on the tail end, and the high likelihood that a pitcher will miss a significant portion of at least one season during that stretch, it's pretty close to the $6-7 million range.

When Miguel Cabrera signed his extension, it worked out to about $4.3 million per WAR based on his previous 3 seasons of 7.5, 7.2, and 7.5. That contract extended him through his 40 year old season. The Tigers know his production will plummet the last half of that contract, but they're willing to pay him later for production now.

Speculation was that if Trout hadn't signed his extension and was a free agent at 26 years old, he would easily get 10/$400. Let's say a reasonable estimate for his WAR during his 26-35 year old seasons is 9.0 per year for the first 5 years, followed by 8.0 for 2 years, and then 7.0, 6.0, and 5.0 in the remaining 3 years. That would work out to just over $5 million per WAR. Once again, you factor in the length of the contract and the potential for a serious injury during a 10 year stretch, and it's pretty close to that $6-7 million mark.

 

[zyron]

The general rule of thumb is 2.0+ is starting level, 5.0 is All Star and 8.0 is MVP.

A starting level player is worth about $12 million in today's free agent market. All stars are worth in the low $20 range. Scherzer, for example, has averaged a 5.6 WAR the last 3 years. He was just given $30M per year which works out to ~$5.4M per WAR. When you factor in the length of the contract, an assumed drop in performance on the tail end, and the high likelihood that a pitcher will miss a significant portion of at least one season during that stretch, it's pretty close to the $6-7 million range.

When Miguel Cabrera signed his extension, it worked out to about $4.3 million per WAR based on his previous 3 seasons of 7.5, 7.2, and 7.5. That contract extended him through his 40 year old season. The Tigers know his production will plummet the last half of that contract, but they're willing to pay him later for production now.

Speculation was that if Trout hadn't signed his extension and was a free agent at 26 years old, he would easily get 10/$400. Let's say a reasonable estimate for his WAR during his 26-35 year old seasons is 9.0 per year for the first 5 years, followed by 8.0 for 2 years, and then 7.0, 6.0, and 5.0 in the remaining 3 years. That would work out to just over $5 million per WAR. Once again, you factor in the length of the contract and the potential for a serious injury during a 10 year stretch, and it's pretty close to that $6-7 million mark.

I just think $6-7 million per win is stating it too high. I say its more $3.5-5 million per. Cano averaged about 7.5 WAR for the four years before he signed his $24 million a year contract so $3.2 million per win. $3.6 million for Ellsbury based on the year he signed his contract with Yanks. Ramirez about $4.6 million with Red Sox based on his last two years(even with him missing 110 games those two years).

 

[Deepster]

9 in a row. D'Arnaud goes down, Plawecki comes up and goes 2-4 in his big league debut....and calls a gem for Niese.

DeGrom and the Dark Knight on tap for Friday and Saturday in the Bronx.

 

[8893]

9 in a row. D'Arnaud goes down, Plawecki comes up and goes 2-4 in his big league debut....and calls a gem for Niese.

DeGrom and the Dark Knight on tap for Friday and Saturday in the Bronx.

I'm not worried at all about Plawecki. By all accounts a legit MLB player and talent. I'm not expecting to see any drop off from D'Arnaud. I am more concerned about replacing Blevins--he was a valuable lefty in that role. But feeling good for sure right now.

 

[UConnMike04]

A lot of scouts project Plaw to be even better than TDA. I'm excited, 11-3 and this is without some major pieces. They won't keep this up (they will not go 159-3, lol) forever, but this start will keep them in the race all season.

Also their pitching won't allow them to go on any sustained losing streaks. As with any team, the only thing I think that would hurt them would be a lot of key injuries to major guys.

LGM. Let's sweep ATL and take care of the fossils in the Bronx. Although, while beating the Yanks is always great...If we are going to lose a series I'd rather lose this wknd and beat Miami and the Nats next week.

 

[Deepster]

10 in a row.

I talked to a sabrmetric consultant for an NL team tonight through a work event. He said he had the Mets at 82-83 wins. But this start and this staff? If they go .500 the rest of the way, it's 83 wins. If they're healthy, this start has vaulted them into a good spot.

 

[noeynox]

Wilmer Flores. Was hoping they finally gave this kid a chance at SS full time. Not a good defender but solid enough and provides terrific pop at the bottom of the line-up.

 

[zyron]

10 in a row.

I talked to a sabrmetric consultant for an NL team tonight through a work event. He said he had the Mets at 82-83 wins. But this start and this staff? If they go .500 the rest of the way, it's 83 wins. If they're healthy, this start has vaulted them into a good spot.

Do you mean 93 wins? Mets have been impressive, took a few for my fantasy team this year (made sure to get Harvey) and I am a Yanks fan.

 

[TheDoggPound]

Mets fan here and 81-82 wins was always a low figure. Harvey's return alone is/was worth 3 wins and they won 79 last year. Add in Cuddyer/Mayberry, Lagares-TDA-Flores development, full season of DeGrom, no Valverde/Farnsworth, no Bobby Abreu.. This team should have been pegged a playoff team heading into the season. I predicted 87-89 wins and a WC birth, maybe they surpass even my expectations and win the division but Nationals will make their run I'm sure.

 

[Deepster]

Do you mean 93 wins? Mets have been impressive, took a few for my fantasy team this year (made sure to get Harvey) and I am a Yanks fan.

No. 162 game season. They were 13 games in at 10-3. 149 games left. If they win half those (74), plus the 10 wins they already have it's 84 wins, right?