The Official 2015 Mets Thread

[mets1090]

I just have a hard time justifying trading one of them now when you could keep them and possibly sign Zobrist and a guy like Justin Upton in the offseason. Then you have this same pitching staff with a reasonable offense next year. That's easily a playoff caliber team and you don't need to give up any assets to get it. If they swing and miss in the free agent market I would be open to trading 1 of the 4 to get a star hitter back.

And if they do decide to pull the trigger on trading one of them, they better be getting a guy that could be an MVP type candidate because all 4 of these guys could be all stars in the next 5 years and could make a run at a CY with a breakout year.

 

[8893]

I just have a hard time justifying trading one of them now when you could keep them and possibly sign Zobrist and a guy like Justin Upton in the offseason. Then you have this same pitching staff with a reasonable offense next year. That's easily a playoff caliber team and you don't need to give up any assets to get it. If they swing and miss in the free agent market I would be open to trading 1 of the 4 to get a star hitter back.

I have a hard time justifying waiting until next season--again--when we're right in the hunt in the one we're in right now, even with an anemic offense and shoddy defense. It's a weak division and it's there for the taking. With the pitching staff we've got, we *should* fare well in a playoff setting with even a modestly reliable offense. You can wait your whole life away for the "right" time to gear up for a playoff run and, for one reason or another, it won't work out like you planned. If the Giants' success has taught anything, it's that you take advantage of the opportunities you have; you don't wait for the planets to align.

 

[mets1090]

I hate the wait til next year slogan as much as the next Mets fan, I just think that trading a young arm that's already contributing for an all star bat doesn't improve the team as much as people might think. Trade a couple minor league assets for a good player instead of a great one and roll with this team for the next 4 years.

With the team's payroll situation, you simply can't give up a potential all star pitcher that makes $500k unless you are winning the trade by a wide margin. It's not like past "wait til next year" seasons where we have 5 guys in the lineup that are 32 and we're just waiting on the next wave of prospects. On those teams it made more sense to just go for it right then and there. This team undeniably has young talent already in place, so you should add reasonable pieces in their early to mid 30s. Two guys that won't destroy your farm system but will be a huge step up from Tejada or Flores playing every day.

For the record, I don't entirely disagree with you. I won't be upset if they pull off a bigger deal where they get a legit all star back. I just lean towards adding multiple good pieces which can be had for Minor Leaguers. We don't necessarily need to worry about giving up too many prospects because the bulk of the Major League Roster is under 30 as it is and the top prospects are basically already up with the exception of Nimmo and Conforto.

 

[UConnMike04]

Unless you are getting a Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Correa, Trout, Harper, Stanton type you don't touch the "Core 4". Also don't forget next June/July Wheeler will be back. Imagine a playoff series with Harvey/DeGrom/Noah/Matz with even just an average offense? You'd have to beat two of them twice to defeat us. That's not even counting Wheeler who would probably be the starter moved into the pen bc you never go 5 deep in the playoffs.

 

[8893]

You guys must live in an alternate Mets universe where a fully healthy pitching staff--much less roster--is a realistic possibility. And where the other teams in the division stay static or get worse while we improve.

I think the chances of us having a healthy Harvey/DeGrom/Syndergaard/Matz/Wheeler, along with a healthy (and active) Mejia/Familia, at the same time, are slim to none.

There are a few other teams like the Cubs and Astros who appear to be ahead of schedule to compete this season, and there is a lot of talk about them making moves to seize the opportunity while they can. Meanwhile, there is little to no talk about the Mets doing anything when they are basically in the same exact position. And the reason is because everyone expects the franchise to do the same as they always do--i.e., sell their fans on the prospects of waiting until next year.

I guess I'm just stunned that anyone is still buying it.

 

[mets1090]

The problem with trading one of the big 4 is that you're losing the value they would be contributing to the team this season. A third of a season of an all star is worth about 1.5 extra wins. A third of a season of Thor (i.e. 11 starts which is exactly what Thor has) is worth about 0.8. As a result, building a package around Thor to get an allstar bat might improve the team by about 1 game if we operate under the assumption that, for example, Tejada (being replaced by an allstar) and Gee (replacing Thor) are similarly valuable. It makes no sense to trade a guy that is one of the best contributors on the team going forward and making $500k for the next 3 years.

Now if they can trade one of the pitchers for a young bat that has 3-5 years of team control left, that's completely different. I just doubt you're going to find a team willing to do that because no one ever wants to roll the trading rookies for rookies. The much more likely and IMO much more reasonable strategy is to trade a couple B level prospects for a solid bat so you're just adding talent to the current roster. You could add a win or two of value by doing that and still keep the big 4 together.

 

[8893]

The problem with trading one of the big 4 is that you're losing the value they would be contributing to the team this season. A third of a season of an all star is worth about 1.5 extra wins. A third of a season of Thor (i.e. 11 starts which is exactly what Thor has) is worth about 0.8. As a result, building a package around Thor to get an allstar bat might improve the team by about 1 game if we operate under the assumption that, for example, Tejada (being replaced by an allstar) and Gee (replacing Thor) are similarly valuable. It makes no sense to trade a guy that is one of the best contributors on the team going forward and making $500k for the next 3 years.

Now if they can trade one of the pitchers for a young bat that has 3-5 years of team control left, that's completely different. I just doubt you're going to find a team willing to do that because no one ever wants to roll the trading rookies for rookies. The much more likely and IMO much more reasonable strategy is to trade a couple B level prospects for a solid bat so you're just adding talent to the current roster. You could add a win or two of value by doing that and still keep the big 4 together.

I know it's not going to happen, but my dream scenario is trading Harvey (i.e., not a rookie) straight up for a young bat like you describe right now.

I'd be happy with your more likely and more reasonable scenario. My frustration is primarily the reality that, the Mets being the Mets, neither is likely to happen at all.

 

[mets1090]

I know it's not going to happen, but my dream scenario is trading Harvey (i.e., not a rookie) straight up for a young bat like you describe right now.

I'd be happy with your more likely and more reasonable scenario. My frustration is primarily the reality that, the Mets being the Mets, neither is likely to happen at all.

Ah ok that I'm on board with. Wouldn't think twice about doing something insane involving Harvey for Bryant. I just don't want to swap a good young player for a great veteran because the gamble that it'll turn into one or two more wins isn't worth giving up 4 or 5 years of team control on the young player.

Since a [big 4 pitcher] for [Bryant/Pederson/etc.] type deal is almost certainly not going to happen, I'm inclined to think the best realistic option is prospects for Zobrist if the A's are willing to do so.

Hopefully they can pull off a couple of smaller deals like that to make reasonable upgrades for this year and then sign Justin Upton or Jason Heyward in the offseason.

 

[UConnMike04]

I think Harvey is gone once he hits FA. Luckily we have 3 more seasons before we even have to think about that. I would trade him though in the right deal. Bryant, Correa (guy Astros just brought up), Joc Pederson, Harper, Trout, Stanton, Goldschmidt are just a few of the names I'd do it for. It would have to be a young bat.

 

[mets1090]

I think Harvey is gone once he hits FA. Luckily we have 3 more seasons before we even have to think about that. I would trade him though in the right deal. Bryant, Correa (guy Astros just brought up), Joc Pederson, Harper, Trout, Stanton, Goldschmidt are just a few of the names I'd do it for. It would have to be a young bat.

Seems to be the consensus.

 

[Alum86]

We are going to have to pay these young hurlers eventually. The position players are all garbage. This is fact. Including Wright, should he return. Time to trade is now. All pitchers on block except deGrom and Noah And Matz. Harvey will be a NYY soon enough. We all know that.

 

[8893]

Dear Lord, we're 1-19 with runners in scoring position and we just surrendered a lead off homer in the bottom of the 13th. Shoot me.

The failure to add offense is criminal.

 

[UConnMike04]

If he doesn't add any offense I'd honestly almost hope to tailspin and it become a lost season IF it'll mean the end of Sandy.

 

[mets1090]

Sandy definitely needs to go if they don't make a move to improve the offense. Whether they get two decent bats or a superstar depends on a lot of things (availability for one) but they need to do something. I just hope they don't trade one of the big 4. Conforto seems to be the real deal too so unless they're getting back a star he should be off limits.

 

[8893]

1-26

Wow. I'm numb.

 

[mets1090]

1-26

Wow. I'm numb.

And yet... 2 games back of the division and the wild card. How this team is an 8-2 stretch away from being in a playoff spot is beyond me.

 

[UConnMike04]

And yet... 2 games back of the division and the wild card. How this team is an 8-2 stretch away from being in a playoff spot is beyond me.

One word: Pitching.

 

[mets1090]

One word: Pitching.

Pitching plus luck I'd say. They should be more like 45-47 at which point the season would basically be over.

My favorite (and simultaneously least favorite) part of all this is thinking about where they'd be if they were 2-5 against the Cubs.

 

[UConnMike04]

Pitching plus luck I'd say. They should be more like 45-47 at which point the season would basically be over. My favorite (and simultaneously least favorite) part of all this is thinking about where they'd be if they were 2-5 against the Cubs.

yep, what hurts is being 0-3 against Pirates. 3-4 against St. Louis. These next 3 are huge.

 

[joober jones]

deGrom's first two years are shaping up to be slightly better than Harvey's first two. He's just quiet so it's taking people longer to anoint him "the ace." He's the best pitcher on the staff without question, given that Harvey is coming of surgery. Whether or not he returns to pre surgery form remains to be seen. The overall point is spot on though: 4 guys with legit ace potential.

This. deGrom, Syndegaard, and Matz aren't ego guys like Harvey. That's not to say that Harvey isn't on the same tier as they are talent-wise or that most teams wouldn't kill to have him. It's just that he's got that bravado factor that makes him seem the ace of the staff.

 

[joober jones]

TDA has caught some breaks. His hand and elbow! I know they have been fluke injuries, but he is always getting hurt. I love his bat, when he plays.

AJ Pierzynski was probably the most infuriating player possible to have given him the latest injury.

 

[8893]

This. deGrom, Syndegaard, and Matz aren't ego guys like Harvey. That's not to say that Harvey isn't on the same tier as they are talent-wise or that most teams wouldn't kill to have him. It's just that he's got that bravado factor that makes him seem the ace of the staff.

Well let's see how he does on national TV tonight in a very important game for us. If you want to be an ace you have to come up big in games like this. Three of them will have that chance in the next three games.

Ironically, it may be our pitchers' bats that have to win these games, even moreso than their arms.

 

[mets1090]

deGrom has had 4 bad starts, 1 start that was 6 innings and 2 ER, and everything else has been better than (i.e. some combination of either more innings or less runs). If it wasn't for Greinke going all Bob Gibson circa 1968 on the league, deGrom would have a legit shot at the Cy Young if the season ended right now.

One less than stellar start tonight doesn't undo that (like when Dickey got shellacked by the Yankees in his dream season). A great start further cements it though. Mets need 2 out of 3.

 

[8893]

I was talking about Harvey, who is pitching tonight, but I agree that one start does not an ace make or break. Just the general point that an ace is someone on whom you need to be able to rely in big spots like these next three games.

 

[mets1090]

I was talking about Harvey, who is pitching tonight.

Oops, I had the order mixed up obviously. I know Thor is 3rd in line but didn't bother to check the order for the other two for whatever reason.

Harvey hasn't been himself. I don't think he's even been good enough to expect a 3.07 ERA to be honest. I think you have to give him a pass on most of it since this is basically one big rehab season. Of course, if he comes out and dominates tonight it'll be tough to keep the expectations tempered.