The Numbers on Realignment

[businesslawyer]

So the Sagarins are now final for the 2011 season. The Big East is losing the 22nd, 69th and 76th ranked football teams. It is gaining the 9th, 15th, 70th, 74th and 77th ranked teams. Quite obviously, based solely on strength of teams on the field this year, the conference will have gotten stronger when these changes occur.

I say that not to minimize the effect on the Big East from a basketball, geographic or perception perspective. Nor to make predictions about where various of these eight programs in transition may be going in terms of ratings in the future. But, solely in terms of the product on the field, it is clear that the Big East would have had a better product this year if the transition had been made already.

 

[bmayuc]

the problem is that it dilutes our branding.

I look forward to the 16 team ACC in 2015.

 

[WhaleEER]

1. You left out TCU

2. As long as you are downgrading the remaining NBE schools to MW and Conf USA levels your assumption works. If you think the competition would have been tougher if these teams played in the BE this year, their ranking would be lower. Would UConn have finished 5-7 in conf USA?

 

[TouchdownHusky]

What will be missing/lacking in the new format will be the following:

1. The geographic/regional "pull", replete with arch enemy rivalries. UConn v SMU, Rutgers v SDSU, and Louisville v Boise State rivalries pale in comparison to the Michigan v Wisconsin, the Penn State v tOSU, the Florida v Georgia, Tennessee v Alabama, USC v UCLA, Washington v Oregon, etc.

2. It'll be hard for fans to follow their team to away games given the geography.

3. How long before a Boise State, a UConn, a Rutgers goes elsewhere. Still ripe is the Big East for raids (see TCU).

In the interim, it's not a bad fall back.

 

[B1GEast]

I'll keep on stating that if the AQ goes away, there will be no reason for Houston, San Diego St and Boise St to join this conference. If the AQ is gone, then scheduling will be the priority of all football teams as strength of schedule will be a determining factor in who gets a BCS bowl bid, you could see some conferences with 3 or 4 teams playing in a BCS bowl. This is a very real scenerio.

 

[NutmegState]

1. You left out TCU

2. As long as you are downgrading the remaining NBE schools to MW and Conf USA levels your assumption works. If you think the competition would have been tougher if these teams played in the BE this year, their ranking would be lower. Would UConn have finished 5-7 in conf USA?

Boise did just fine against ASU and Georgia. SMU did just fine against TCU and Pitt, and Houston did just fine against Penn State. UCF destroyed Boston College and last season beat Georgia in their bowl game last season.

Somehow, magically, I think these teams will come in and compete. Call it a hunch.

Good luck in the B12!

 

[businesslawyer]

1. You left out TCU

2. As long as you are downgrading the remaining NBE schools to MW and Conf USA levels your assumption works. If you think the competition would have been tougher if these teams played in the BE this year, their ranking would be lower. Would UConn have finished 5-7 in conf USA?

1. I guess I missed them helping us by playing in the Big East. I promise to pay more attention next time.

2. The whole point of a computer ranking is it is supposed to measure how good your team was over the course of the season. If it works correctly, your ranking wouldn't change materially by a different schedule, even though your record, obviously, would. But thank you for supporting your school by just making up that things would have been worse if ....

 

[uconndogs]

This is what it is. Am I happy about it? No. Will I support it? Absolutely.

I firmly believe that UCONN football can get to a point where it dominates this conference. Regionally, whenever we get the chance to play someone in the area we need to win consistently and convincingly. Any and all chances against Syracuse, Pitt, Temple, BC (who knows?) need to be taken full advantage. And if the chance is there to demonstrate dominance over a program you drop 60 or 70 on them.

There is no doubt in my mind that the only way to control your own destiny in the ensuing rounds of realignment is to increase your fanbase. You do that by winning.....a lot....

 

[RabidHusky]

I like the idea that we're picking up Houston, Dallas, SD-LA markets and Disney World. UCF is the 2nd largest U in the country in population. IT's going to expand the recruiting base ...and how much further are these trips than were the ones to Miami? The BBall teams fly all over now anyway.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

I'll keep on stating that if the AQ goes away, there will be no reason for Houston, San Diego St and Boise St to join this conference. If the AQ is gone, then scheduling will be the priority of all football teams as strength of schedule will be a determining factor in who gets a BCS bowl bid, you could see some conferences with 3 or 4 teams playing in a BCS bowl. This is a very real scenerio.

Boise St and SDSU you have a point. But all of the teams getting full invites still have every reason in the world to move up. At this point Houston, UCF, and SMU would never turn back no matter what.

 

[B1GEast]

UCF, they are a great addition, for everyone else, the travel costs would be resistrictive for non AQ status. Why travel to the east coast when there are plenty of teams out west or down south that might have a stronger strength rating than a BE team.

I literally can see Boise St and Houston in our conference for a year and then bolting when they see what their travel cost ends up being.

 

[businesslawyer]

The move wasn't made without everyone hearing from TV consultants. It may or may not make sense to some of us, but it didn't happen just because of the BCS. It happened because Boise St and Houston (and SD State) see more net revenue joining the Big East than not joining it.

Frankly, I'm surprised some of you aren't debating gravity because that doesn't make intuitive sense either.

 

[metsfan2323]

I literally can see Boise St and Houston in our conference for a year and then bolting when they see what their travel cost ends up being.

No offense but you are way off base. I read on a Boise site a couple months ago that travel costs are expected to increase by about $150K but this is offset by an expected television revenue increase of at MINIMUM $6 million and potentially $10 - $12 million.

Remember we are talking about just 4 away games per year and Boise already travels quite a distance in the MWC. Plus Texas and San Diego are in their current travel footprint and it is expected another Western school will be added.

Houston BTW is thrilled beyond belief about joining the Big East. If you want to feel good about the Big East visit a Houston message board.

 

[SAMCRO]

TV money, TV money, TV money, that is the driving force behind a Boise, SDSU, Houston, etc... joining the BE. With or without the AQ label. The MWC and CUSA TV cotnracts and per team payouts are nowhere remotely close to what the BE will get, even if our $$'s go down in the next contract (which I don't believe they will). Those schools will be raking in significantly more $$'s with the move, it is about the $$$ (always).

 

[Jarhead_1775]

TV money, TV money, TV money, that is the driving force behind a Boise, SDSU, Houston, etc... joining the BE. With or without the AQ label. The MWC and CUSA TV cotnracts and per team payouts are nowhere remotely close to what the BE will get, even if our $$'s go down in the next contract (which I don't believe they will). Those schools will be raking in significantly more $$'s with the move, it is about the $$$ (always).

Bigger TV money AND a heftier exit fee. Both of those costs against some extra travel and it becomes not even a scratch in the surface.