The Not Too Early Midseason Projected One Seeds

[Grad1990]

If UConn, Baylor, Mississippi State and Oregon win out, which is probable, then they are likely locks for a one seed.

If NC State wins out, which is not probable, then Mississippi State likely drops to a two seed..

Of the four projected one seeds, Oregon winning out is the most Iffy.

Notre Dame is on the bubble looking in. Their non conference loss cost them big time. At this point they need help to get a one seed, which is not probable.

 

[Bear11]

I disagree about Notre Dame. They still control their own destiny. If they win out I consider them a lock for a 1 seed. Given that they have the top RPI and most difficult schedule according to the metrics the committee uses, I imagine that if the season ended today they would be an easy 1 seed.

 

[Grad1990]

I disagree about Notre Dame. They still control their own destiny. If they win out I consider them a lock for a 1 seed. Given that they have the top RPI and most difficult schedule according to the metrics the committee uses, I imagine that if the season ended today they would be an easy 1 seed.

It is not possible for both NC State and Notre Dame to win out.

If Notre Dame won out, who would they replace? What would justify one of the other teams being replaced?

Their non conference loss will cost them dearly.

Congrats on Baylor's number one ranking in both polls this week. They deserve it.

 

[DefenseBB]

If UConn, Baylor and Mississippi State win out, which is probable, then they are locks for a one seed.

If NC State wins out, which is not probable, then they are a lock for a one seed.

If NC State loses, then Oregon is a likely one seed if they win-out. Iffy at best.

Notre Dame is on the bubble looking in. Their non conference loss cost them big time. At this point they need help to get a one seed, which is not probable.

Why do you think this?

All the data that the committee uses would disagree that MSU is a #1. Oregon, Louisville and ND all rank higher than MSU given their SOS and their projected SOS. It is highly unlikely both ND and Louisville would be #1’s but if UConn or Baylor lose, the door could open and given their schedules it is a possibility.
Using a best guess though, Baylor, UConn, Oregon and ND are the #1’s with MSU, Stanford, Louisville and Ore St the 2’s.
NC St has not played ND or Louisville yet so their true strength is unknown.

 

['nuff sed]

They will bend over backward for a ND #1 —- and the gate in Chicago

UConn could be a 1 or a 2 and they wouldn’t care — UConn is in Albany

Regardless of RPI or record...they’ll bounce one to 3 with another loss or push one to 1. ND can carry 2 losses, they’ll find an excuse to make it come out right for them.

And not for nothing, and I don’t believe in jinx’s......but let’s get by Thurs night.

 

[Grad1990]

Why do you think this?

All the data that the committee uses would disagree that MSU is a #1. Oregon, Louisville and ND all rank higher than MSU given their SOS and their projected SOS. It is highly unlikely both ND and Louisville would be #1’s but if UConn or Baylor lose, the door could open and given their schedules it is a possibility.
Using a best guess though, Baylor, UConn, Oregon and ND are the #1’s with MSU, Stanford, Louisville and Ore St the 2’s.
NC St has not played ND or Louisville yet so their true strength is unknown.

Fair...

Implicit in the assumptions is that Louisville will lose to UConn this week (Louisville is a one trick pony without balance.....they match up very poorly against UConn....its not going to be much of a game).

Notre Dame has a bad, bad loss, which will be a key measurable come decision time.

 

[bbballfan23]

UConn could be a 1 or a 2 and they wouldn’t care — UConn is in Albany

I disagree, they will want the 1 in Albany, especially if it’s with a 1 or 2 OVERALL seed. You would rather play NC State or Stanford to advance to the FF than one of the top 4 teams.

 

[Bear11]

It is not possible for both NC State and Notre Dame to win out.

If Notre Dame won out, who would they replace? What would justify one of the other teams being replaced?

Their non conference loss will cost them dearly.

Congrats on Baylor's number one ranking in both polls this week. They deserve it.

The following teams control their own destiny for a 1 seed by my thinking: Baylor, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State, and Oregon. If any of those win out, they will be a top seed. Obviously at least 2 of the ACC teams will take another loss, and UConn plays Louisville. However, If any 4 out of those 6 teams win out, which is not altogether unlikely, Mississippi State will be left on the 2 line even if they win the rest. That is almost the exact situation Baylor was in last season.

On the other hand, it is at least as likely that there will be at least one upset to open the door for Mississippi State, Stanford or another team that takes a loss. Another potential headache would be if the ACC regular season champion does not win the conference tournament. The UConn-UL game Thursday is also pivotal. A UConn win pretty much wraps up a top seed, but a loss likely means they will need outside help to keep a top seed.

There are still many moving parts, and it is probably too early to be having this conversation, but I love a good speculation as much as anyone. Have to do something to pass the time when our teams only play twice a week.

 

[bballnut90]

If UConn, Baylor, Mississippi State and Oregon win out, which is probable, then they are likely locks for a one seed.

If NC State wins out, which is not probable, then Mississippi State likely drops to a two seed..

Of the four projected one seeds, Oregon winning out is the most Iffy.

Notre Dame is on the bubble looking in. Their non conference loss cost them big time. At this point they need help to get a one seed, which is not probable.

Notre Dame is still a likely 1 seed, especially if they win out the rest of the way which means victories over NC State and likely Louisville again.

Oregon would need to win at Stanford and twice against Oregon State, not to mention face Utah and likely have a rematch or 2 in the Pac 12 tournament. It is possible to win out, but hardly likely IMO.

Mississippi State plays in a streaky SEC and will have 1 or 2 more matchups South Carolina who has been their kryptonite the last several years. I bet they drop 1-2 games.

UCONN also has to beat a good Louisville team on the road which is hardly an automatic win, especially this year and Louisville will have a packed house. I think they enter the tournament with 1 loss but they need to beat Louisvillle to ensure that.

Baylor is best positioned playing in a weak Big 12 but I'll be surprised if more than 1-2 teams enter the tournament as a 1 loss team.

 

[Vowelguy]

If ND wins out they are a #1. Not even close.

 

[Bear11]

The following teams control their own destiny for a 1 seed by my thinking: Baylor, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State, and Oregon. If any of those win out, they will be a top seed. Obviously at least 2 of the ACC teams will take another loss, and UConn plays Louisville. However, If any 4 out of those 6 teams win out, which is not altogether unlikely, Mississippi State will be left on the 2 line even if they win the rest. That is almost the exact situation Baylor was in last season.

On the other hand, it is at least as likely that there will be at least one upset to open the door for Mississippi State, Stanford or another team that takes a loss. Another potential headache would be if the ACC regular season champion does not win the conference tournament. The UConn-UL game Thursday is also pivotal. A UConn win pretty much wraps up a top seed, but a loss likely means they will need outside help to keep a top seed.

There are still many moving parts, and it is probably too early to be having this conversation, but I love a good speculation as much as anyone. Have to do something to pass the time when our teams only play twice a week.

Adding on, I think Stanford may control their own destiny too. If they won out, with wins over Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State, plus whoever they beat in the conference tournament, I think the committee would place them ahead of Mississippi State. The Pac-12 really is a gauntlet, so I don't know that I see any team winning them all.

 

[Grad1990]

Oregon would need to win at Stanford and twice against Oregon State, not to mention face Utah and likely have a rematch or 2 in the Pac 12 tournament. It is possible to win out, but hardly likely IMO.

I agree. Of my projected one seeds, Oregon is the least likely to win out.

 

['nuff sed]

I disagree, they will want the 1 in Albany, especially if it’s with a 1 or 2 OVERALL seed. You would rather play NC State or Stanford to advance to the FF than one of the top 4 teams.

They want that of course—-but they haven’t beat Louisville as we are typing right now.

Frankly , I could care less who we play.

You’re gonna have to beat a decent team in the 8—I have no preference. I just don’t think that way.

 

[Grad1990]

If ND wins out they are a #1. Not even close.

Again, if the others win out (all one loss teams) the committee will look to Notre Dame's huge, non conference loss as a key determinant.

The Selection Committee would not have a strong enough basis to give ND the one seed.

 

[Bear11]

Again, if the others win out (all one loss teams) the committee will look to Notre Dame's huge, non conference loss as a key determinant.

The Selection Committee would not have a strong enough basis to give ND the one seed.

If Notre Dame wins out, then Louisville will take at least 1 more loss and NC State 2, likely eliminating them from 1 seed contention. That would leave Baylor, UConn, Oregon, and Mississippi State as possible one loss teams. If that scenario played out, there is a 100% chance that Notre Dame would still be ranked above MSU due to the difficulty of their schedule. Therefore Notre Dame is guaranteed a 1 seed if they win out. Being Notre Dame and being number 1 in RPI has its advantages.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Agree with others, I can't see any Pac 12 team running the table the rest of the way. If any of them take just one more loss from here, including the conference tourney, that will be quite a run.

 

[JoePgh]

Again, if the others win out (all one loss teams) the committee will look to Notre Dame's huge, non conference loss as a key determinant.

The Selection Committee would not have a strong enough basis to give ND the one seed.

You've now referred three times to Notre Dame's "huge non-conference loss". Are you talking about their loss to UConn? That is their only non-conference loss. Their loss to the Tar Heels may have been a "huge" loss and a "bad" loss, but it was an in-conference game.

 

[Jmsdawg]

If Notre Dame wins out, then Louisville will take at least 1 more loss and NC State 2, likely eliminating them from 1 seed contention. That would leave Baylor, UConn, Oregon, and Mississippi State as possible one loss teams. If that scenario played out, there is a 100% chance that Notre Dame would still be ranked above MSU due to the difficulty of their schedule. Therefore Notre Dame is guaranteed a 1 seed if they win out. Being Notre Dame and being number 1 in RPI has its advantages.

I believe the ACC is the top conference this year and the ACC Tournament champion will be a number 1 seed if ND or Lou is the tournament winner. If Oregon is not a number 1 seed then I believe MSST will be a number 1 seed if they win all remaining games, no doubt our early cupcake schedule is a detriment to being a number 1 seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

Again, if the others win out (all one loss teams) the committee will look to Notre Dame's huge, non conference loss as a key determinant.

The Selection Committee would not have a strong enough basis to give ND the one seed.

Yes they would.
ND would have wins over Lou, NC St, + ACC conf title (likely another win over Lou or NC St) + Ore St, Marquette.

Miss St would have a win over Marq. Their record against probable 1/2 seeds: 0-1.

The committee has consistently shown that they value high quality wins more than they downplay a bad loss.

It's really not close.

 

[Vowelguy]

Yes they would.
ND would have wins over Lou, NC St, + ACC conf title (likely another win over Lou or NC St) + Ore St, Marquette.

Miss St would have a win over Marq. Their record against probable 1/2 seeds: 0-1.

The committee has consistently shown that they value high quality wins more than they downplay a bad loss.

It's really not close.

Additionally if they win out,
ND is projected at about 17-2 against the RPI 50.
Miss St about 10-1.

 

[Monte]

It's all about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Vowelguy]

It's all about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

No, it's not.

 

[Plebe]

Oregon winning out is not "probable" IMO. They have a game at Stanford and a home-and-away against their in-state rival. When a beaver and a duck go at it, you can throw the record books out, amirite @triaddukefan ? Not to mention there's the Pac-12 tourney.

There will likely be at least two #1 seeds that have 2 losses or more. It's a common misconception that teams have to "win out" or else they drop a line. UConn lost 3 times to Notre Dame in 2013 and was still as #1 seed.

 

[triaddukefan]

Oregon winning out is not "probable" IMO. They have a game at Stanford and a home-and-away against their in-state rival. When a beaver and a duck go at it, you can throw the record books out, amirite @triaddukefan ?

throw it out

 

[Orangutan]

The committee has consistently shown that they value high quality wins more than they downplay a bad loss.

The most misunderstood thing about the brackets.

It's the reason why 3-loss ND got a #1 last year over 1-loss Baylor despite one of their losses being a 33-point stomping.