The Next Shocks

[nelsonmuntz]

Now let's see how long it's in the media cycle. I bet it's barely mentioned by the end of the month

It is going to be in Jontay Porter's media cycle for a long time.

 

[JMick]

It is going to be in Jontay Porter's media cycle for a long time.

Your argument was that a betting scandal was going to blow sports wide open. It's the end of the day and already no one cares.

 

[Ha Who]

Your argument was that a betting scandal was going to blow sports wide open. It's the end of the day and already no one cares.

Was on nightly news this evening

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Your argument was that a betting scandal was going to blow sports wide open. It's the end of the day and already no one cares.

I never made that argument. You did make the argument that no one will care if all games are fixed.

 

[NE Football]

The gambling scandal is coming and it will be devastating

 

[JMick]

I never made that argument. You did make the argument that no one will care if all games are fixed.

Yes you did lol and no I didn't. Sometimes I don't understand how you can say things like this

 

[shizzle787]

I tend to agree with this, but I also think the state schools are carrying massive overhead that could be eliminated through consolidation.

The tsunami approaching higher education is really hard to predict. This is an industry that had very little change in 100 years until about 2010, but the seas are pretty rough now. Do you know anyone that wants to become an English Professor?

See CCSU and Charter Oak….

 

[shizzle787]

Expensive private schools that offer educations no better than one could get at a state school are the most vulnerable.

Looking at you, Syracuse. I bet we will live to see your dome turned into some kind of giant food court/casino/low-end retail complex with great air conditioning.

Syracuse will be fine. Most top 100 schools will be fine. I would not want to be a private school in the bottom third of Division 1 or in any of the other divisions unless you are prestigious.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Syracuse will be fine. Most top 100 schools will be fine. I would not want to be a private school in the bottom third of Division 1 or in any of the other divisions unless you are prestigious.

There are so many different directions this can go that it is hard to predict. I know that I would NOT want to be a anchor state school that is not respected academically. I don't know how a school like Kentucky competes in the future education market for students. There will be a shrinking market of kids interested in a national university, and access to the better schools will be less competitive going forward. Why would a kid that had other options go to Kentucky?

 

[shizzle787]

There are so many different directions this can go that it is hard to predict. I know that I would NOT want to be a anchor state school that is not respected academically. I don't know how a school like Kentucky competes in the future education market for students. There will be a shrinking market of kids interested in a national university, and access to the better schools will be less competitive going forward. Why would a kid that had other options go to Kentucky?

The state flagships will be fine (and that includes WVU). If people have heard of your school nationally, you will probably be okay.

 

[KryHavok]

The gambling scandal is coming and it will be devastating

Part of me is hoping it happens sooner. Aside from the occasional Super Bowl pool or playing the slots at Mohegan Sun or Las Vegas, I don't get the gambling allure. Listening to Jimmy the Greek all those years ago was fun, but the way gambling has become so pervasive in every damn sport (and I can't seem to watch soccer without the constant bombardment by Jamie Fox or the MGM girls) is nucking futs. What Pete Rose was stupid, but the athletes that continue to do it are dumber than a box of hair.

 

[superjohn]

Now let's see how long it's in the media cycle. I bet it's barely mentioned by the end of the month

MLB, NFL, NBA they just sweep this stuff under the rug. People might be outraged for a few days and then it's back to nobody caring. Look at how Stern made the whole reffing scandal go away and got his huge NBA TV deal. They were fixing NBA playoff games with NBA championships on the line.

 

[hank970]

There are so many different directions this can go that it is hard to predict. I know that I would NOT want to be a anchor state school that is not respected academically. I don't know how a school like Kentucky competes in the future education market for students. There will be a shrinking market of kids interested in a national university, and access to the better schools will be less competitive going forward. Why would a kid that had other options go to Kentucky?

Kids who have other options might not choose Kentucky, but there are lot of kids who don't have other options, particularly in a relatively poor state like Kentucky. So, they choose UK.

Everything is relative. Ask yourself this: Why would a kid with the option to attend Harvard or Yale or Princeton pick UConn?

 

[dayooper]

Kids who have other options might not choose Kentucky, but there are lot of kids who don't have other options, particularly in a relatively poor state like Kentucky. So, they choose UK.

Everything is relative. Ask yourself this: Why would a kid with the option to attend Harvard or Yale or Princeton pick UConn?

I coached a kid that had a full ride to Iowa, PWO to Michigan and choose Harvard football. One of the best athletes I have ever coached (and I’ve coached kids that went to Big10, ACC, NFL, NHL and MBL) and took the Harvard route.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Kids who have other options might not choose Kentucky, but there are lot of kids who don't have other options, particularly in a relatively poor state like Kentucky. So, they choose UK.

Everything is relative. Ask yourself this: Why would a kid with the option to attend Harvard or Yale or Princeton pick UConn?

Other than cost, there is no reason to pick UConn over those three schools. That is kind of a silly question.

Kentucky is at the end of the trough, and a lot of schools are picking off a lot of students before Kentucky gets its first bite. There are cheaper schools than Kentucky, and there are many, many better schools than Kentucky. Kentucky had a place when the student population was growing nationwide, but those days are over, forever. Not only is the student population shrinking, but I think college attendance as a percentage of total kids between 18-22 will dip as more kids realize that it is not worth going into massive debt for a lot of degrees that it can get at a local school like Central, or whatever a particular kids equivalent of CCSU is.

 

[superjohn]

Other than cost, there is no reason to pick UConn over those three schools. That is kind of a silly question.

Kentucky is at the end of the trough, and a lot of schools are picking off a lot of students before Kentucky gets its first bite. There are cheaper schools than Kentucky, and there are many, many better schools than Kentucky. Kentucky had a place when the student population was growing nationwide, but those days are over, forever. Not only is the student population shrinking, but I think college attendance as a percentage of total kids between 18-22 will dip as more kids realize that it is not worth going into massive debt for a lot of degrees that it can get at a local school like Central, or whatever a particular kids equivalent of CCSU is.

This is my favorite version of Waylon^^

 

[hank970]

Other than cost, there is no reason to pick UConn over those three schools. That is kind of a silly question.

Kentucky is at the end of the trough, and a lot of schools are picking off a lot of students before Kentucky gets its first bite. There are cheaper schools than Kentucky, and there are many, many better schools than Kentucky. Kentucky had a place when the student population was growing nationwide, but those days are over, forever. Not only is the student population shrinking, but I think college attendance as a percentage of total kids between 18-22 will dip as more kids realize that it is not worth going into massive debt for a lot of degrees that it can get at a local school like Central, or whatever a particular kids equivalent of CCSU is.

Of course it was silly, just like your characterization of UK was silly. You're looking down on that school from UConn's perch, and others are looking down on UConn from theirs. To paraphrase you, there are cheaper schools than UConn, and there are many, many better schools than UConn. No doubt some institutions are going to struggle as the nation's demographics change, and those changes are going to affect every school -- even UConn -- in one way or another.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

See CCSU and Charter Oak….

Charter Oak carries minimal overhead. West Conn is a different story.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Of course it was silly, just like your characterization of UK was silly. You're looking down on that school from UConn's perch, and others are looking down on UConn from theirs. To paraphrase you, there are cheaper schools than UConn, and there are many, many better schools than UConn. No doubt some institutions are going to struggle as the nation's demographics change, and those changes are going to affect every school -- even UConn -- in one way or another.

This is like teaching economics to a golden retriever. The student population is shrinking, and there are not going to be enough students for all the schools. Some schools are going to lose, because students are going to pick the better product at the better price. Education is not the first industry to go through a contraction, so this is not splitting the atom intellectually, well at least to everyone but you.

It sounds like you think Kentucky is a better school academically than UConn. Every single college ranking in the country outside of Kentucky thinks you are wrong, by a lot.

 

[hank970]

This is like teaching economics to a golden retriever. The student population is shrinking, and there are not going to be enough students for all the schools. Some schools are going to lose, because students are going to pick the better product at the better price. Education is not the first industry to go through a contraction, so this is not splitting the atom intellectually, well at least to everyone but you.

It sounds like you think Kentucky is a better school academically than UConn. Every single college ranking in the country outside of Kentucky thinks you are wrong, by a lot.

I know that Kentucky ranks lower than UConn in most undergraduate academic metrics, and I didn't claim otherwise. But kids in Kentucky and other states are still more likely to choose their state flagships and other nearby institutions over higher ranked out-of-state schools, including UConn. In addition, some students are attracted to a school because it excels in a particular discipline -- geology, for example, or environmental science, or physics, or aeronautical engineering, or architecture, or creative writing. In which areas of study is UConn so superior that it would attract students away from their home states?

If you think that UConn is better equipped to weather the coming demographic storm than those other schools because it might rank higher on USN&WR (and it doesn't when compared to many), then you'll have to come up with a more persuasive argument than your feeble ad hominem attacks on my understanding of the situation. I note with considerable interest that UConn's endowment and its research activity don't compare favorably with a lot of seemingly inferior institutions, even with those of UK.

 

[Ha Who]

I know that Kentucky ranks lower than UConn in most undergraduate academic metrics, and I didn't claim otherwise. But kids in Kentucky and other states are still more likely to choose their state flagships and other nearby institutions over higher ranked out-of-state schools, including UConn. In addition, some students are attracted to a school because it excels in a particular discipline -- geology, for example, or environmental science, or physics, or aeronautical engineering, or architecture, or creative writing. In which areas of study is UConn so superior that it would attract students away from their home states?

If you think that UConn is better equipped to weather the coming demographic storm than those other schools because it might rank higher on USN&WR (and it doesn't when compared to many), then you'll have to come up with a more persuasive argument than your feeble ad hominem attacks on my understanding of the situation. I note with considerable interest that UConn's endowment and its research activity don't compare favorably with a lot of seemingly inferior institutions, even with those of UK.

Actuarial Science

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I know that Kentucky ranks lower than UConn in most undergraduate academic metrics, and I didn't claim otherwise. But kids in Kentucky and other states are still more likely to choose their state flagships and other nearby institutions over higher ranked out-of-state schools, including UConn. In addition, some students are attracted to a school because it excels in a particular discipline -- geology, for example, or environmental science, or physics, or aeronautical engineering, or architecture, or creative writing. In which areas of study is UConn so superior that it would attract students away from their home states?

If you think that UConn is better equipped to weather the coming demographic storm than those other schools because it might rank higher on USN&WR (and it doesn't when compared to many), then you'll have to come up with a more persuasive argument than your feeble ad hominem attacks on my understanding of the situation. I note with considerable interest that UConn's endowment and its research activity don't compare favorably with a lot of seemingly inferior institutions, even with those of UK.

Because why go to the home state school if another school is just better? It doesn't need to be 100% of the students making this choice. It needs to be maybe 20%, and the school will go into a doom loop. The overhead and infrastructure at many of these schools is so big that unwinding it becomes almost impossible.

 

[hank970]

Actuarial Science

Actuarial science makes sense, given the number of insurance companies headquartered in Connecticut. But is that it?

 

[dayooper]

Because why go to the home state school if another school is just better? It doesn't need to be 100% of the students making this choice. It needs to be maybe 20%, and the school will go into a doom loop. The overhead and infrastructure at many of these schools is so big that unwinding it becomes almost impossible.

Cost is a huge factor. Many public universities charge less tuition for instate students than out of state. I know Michigan universities do. I don’t know the instate tuition of Kentucky and the out of state tuition of UConn, but that could be a huge deciding factor.

 

[Rdkid]

Because why go to the home state school if another school is just better? It doesn't need to be 100% of the students making this choice. It needs to be maybe 20%, and the school will go into a doom loop. The overhead and infrastructure at many of these schools is so big that unwinding it becomes almost impossible.

Because of the basketball and football teams, or because mom and dad or some cousin went there. Is that not a huge part of why all this conference stuff is playing out this way? Bread and circus and branding and all that? Maybe they won’t be pumping out Rhodes scholars but they’ll gladly find room for Eastern Kentucky or Bowling Green’s best prospective students.

 

[Rufus]

I know that Kentucky ranks lower than UConn in most undergraduate academic metrics, and I didn't claim otherwise. But kids in Kentucky and other states are still more likely to choose their state flagships and other nearby institutions over higher ranked out-of-state schools, including UConn. In addition, some students are attracted to a school because it excels in a particular discipline -- geology, for example, or environmental science, or physics, or aeronautical engineering, or architecture, or creative writing. In which areas of study is UConn so superior that it would attract students away from their home states?

If you think that UConn is better equipped to weather the coming demographic storm than those other schools because it might rank higher on USN&WR (and it doesn't when compared to many), then you'll have to come up with a more persuasive argument than your feeble ad hominem attacks on my understanding of the situation. I note with considerable interest that UConn's endowment and its research activity don't compare favorably with a lot of seemingly inferior institutions, even with those of UK.

Kentucky will be fine. If anything, students in the past that could not get into Kentucky and went to Western Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky, etc. will go to Kentucky in the future. It will be the non-flagships that suffer the most. They might have to make some budget cuts at some point, and maybe they decrease total student enrollment, but they will exist and they will be a basketball school. Just like UConn.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think some modest revenue sharing among a large number of programs is not out of the question. The Big 10 and SEC are smart enough to know that no one will care about a "championship" of just two leagues that have less than a total of 40 schools between them.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

6.A) Prestige Universities - One area that is worth addressing is that there are several schools who do not get as much out of affiliating with what is becoming a minor league as other schools do. While I am sure they like the checks, Northwestern and Vanderbilt derive very little value in terms of student interest from their athletic programs getting stomped by pro teams. They did not try to compete in the pre-NIL/Transfer Portal world, and they certainly are not going to bid up to bring in the caliber of free agents necessary to win against Michigan or Alabama. These schools can afford to compete, they just don't want to because that is not how they generate their real money, which is alumni donations.

I was surprised that Cal and Stanford did not take the lead on this, but we may need one or two of the other shocks to the system to happen first before the prestige universities break off to form their own league. I think Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Duke, Cal, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Stanford, Miami, Rice, Tulane, Boston College and maybe some wildcard like the University of Chicago could form a league of likeminded schools. It would still be possible to compete nationally in basketball out of a league like that, but those teams wouldn't have to take the poundings in football, and their alumni would LOVE it. Notre Dame would commit felonies to get its hoop programs and Olympic sports into that league. I think this league would probably turn away 20+ applicants. I am a little surprised it has not happened yet.

This is related to #6 above in that these schools spend millions on branding themselves as exclusive, premier educational institutions, and playing Mississippi State or even Florida State on Saturdays does not help with that branding at all.

https://mikefarrellsports.com/college/could-acc-teams-be-fired-and-form-an-academy-academic-alliance-conference

 

[nelsonmuntz]

2) The final death throes of the bundled cable model - Iger, who is one of the Top 10 CEOS of the 21st century so far, has gotten DIS way up since the beginning of the year, in part because the market thinks ESPN's DTC Streaming model is going to be a hit. It might be, or it might not, but no matter how successful it is, it will be a very different product than ESPN's linear business. A DTC Streaming business needs a broad spectrum of content. Alabama/LSU will still get good numbers, but nothing like it used to without the best time slots on cable, and one game does not drive the number of subscriptions that ESPN needs to get to make a DTC model work. We already have a lot of data on this through the existing content streamers, where content has fragmented to viewer tastes. This changes what streamers are willing to pay for, and how much they will pay for it.

2.A) I don't see how ESPN does not migrate to a performance-based payment model eventually, where schools are paid based on subscriptions they bring, not based on their conference affiliation. The Apple offer to the Pac 12 is what TV deals are going to look like in the future. This will have an impact on conference composition.

2.B) Games are the Product, not the Teams - I think there will be a major re-evaluation of the Frankenconferences that have been formed with unrelated, far flung teams that casual fans do not care about. I would not be surprised if the conferences re-evaluated scheduling to focus on getting games fans want rather than random games in the name of "competition". 90% of the teams in the major conferences are not playing for a national championship, so getting games fans of those teams want is a priority to keep them engaged.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warner-bros-discovery-stock-pops-as-company-confirms-it-will-split-into-2-companies-141412752.html

I will put this story here, because it is a sign of how rapidly the linear cable model, on which the entire conference structure of college sports is based, is declining. WBD is cutting loose all its cable channels into what is likely to be a company in a death spiral. The cable channels are essentially worthless in a streaming world. HBO, which is the crown jewel, will probably get scooped up by Amazon, Apple, Netflix, or maybe one of the traditional media companies.

 

[Rufus]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warner-bros-discovery-stock-pops-as-company-confirms-it-will-split-into-2-companies-141412752.html

I will put this story here, because it is a sign of how rapidly the linear cable model, on which the entire conference structure of college sports is based, is declining. WBD is cutting loose all its cable channels into what is likely to be a company in a death spiral. The cable channels are essentially worthless in a streaming world. HBO, which is the crown jewel, will probably get scooped up by Amazon, Apple, Netflix, or maybe one of the traditional media companies.

HBO isn't part of the spin off global networks company:

The streaming and studios company will include HBO and HBO Max, along with Warner Bros. Television and Motion Picture Group, DC Studios, Warner Bros. Games, and other related assets.

The global networks company will house CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery, Discovery+, Bleacher Report, and a portfolio of free-to-air and digital channels across more than 200 countries and territories.