The movability of seed lines

[Plebe]

Included in the manual that governs the selection committee's work is the following provision:

A team may be moved one bracket line from its true
seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed line to a No. 12 seed
line) when it is placed in the bracket, if necessary to
meet the principles.​

In reading the bracket, then, we should keep in mind that the number on the paper doesn't necessarily reflect a team's "true" seed. We can't always tell when this "movability" provision has been invoked, but in a few cases we can.

The committee chair identified the "last 4 in" as (in alphabetical order) Auburn, Cal, Purdue, and UNI. If these teams had been seeded according to their "true" seed, they could have been seeded no higher than #10. However, both Cal and Purdue received #9 seeds.

Others have pointed out two head-scratching seed comparisons between conference rivals: How can Cal be a #9 and Oregon be a #10? How can Drake and UNI both be #10?

But, armed with the knowledge of which teams were and weren't among the last 4 in, we can conclude the following:

• South Florida (not one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #11, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #3 Florida State.
• Purdue (one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #9, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #1 Notre Dame.
  
• Northern Iowa was ranked below Drake by the committee, and Drake may have been moved from #9 to #10 for the geographical matchup with #7 Kansas State (Drake is less than 350 miles from Manhattan, KS; Northern Iowa isn't).
  
• Oregon was ranked higher than Cal by the committee, but for some reason (still unclear to me) the committee chose to move Cal from #10 to #9.

The takeaway is that the committee made liberal use of this movability provision when it entailed a geographical advantage, and we should take the seedings with a heavy grain of salt. Albany was almost certainly moved from #15 to #16, and Syracuse from #7 to #8, to place them at a drivable distance in Storrs. It's also quite possible Tennessee was moved from #6 to #5 to place them at Louisville.

 

[AndyCT]

I just posted this point in another thread, but the Drake - Northern Iowa seeding isn't as strange as it looks and you can't assume that the committee ranked Northern Iowa significantly below Drake - key word, "significantly". This is what Charlie Creme wrote last night:

Drake and Northern Iowa earning the same seed: It's hard to believe Drake's dominance of the MVC and of UNI didn't earn a better seed than the same No. 10 seed awarded to the Panthers. -- Crème​

What Charlie misses is that while Drake did go undefeated and "dominate" the MVC, Northern Iowa only lost three games in conference, all to Drake, two in overtime. Yes, Drake was better, but it was essentially a push, and other than those "push" games, Northern Iowa dominated the MVC just as much as Drake.

Does this sound similar to anything in recent NCAAW history?

Because in the 2012-13 season Notre Dame went undefeated in conference and "dominated" the Big East, but Connecticut lost only three games in conference that season, all to Notre Dame, one in triple overtime and two by a basket. - sound similar? Essentially a push, and other than those "push" games Connecticut dominated the Big East just as much as Notre Dame.

And we all know that turned out..

My point being that two teams from a conference can be on the same seed line, even if one beat the other several times, without the committee necessarily having moved them - they may just have naturally landed there. I don't think that anyone would argue that Connecticut was a natural #2 seed in 2013 just because Notre Dame had a better conference and head-to-head record; and in this case I don't know that you can assume that Drake should have been naturally seeded higher than Northern Iowa; to me these two teams could easily have been on the same line.

P.S. In an interesting twist (?) Drake will, as a #10 seed, have to play Kansas State on their home floor, a team that fellow #10 seed Northern Iowa beat this year. If Drake is actually better than Northern Iowa, that would be bad news for K-State.

 

[UConnNick]

Included in the manual that governs the selection committee's work is the following provision:

A team may be moved one bracket line from its true
seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed line to a No. 12 seed
line) when it is placed in the bracket, if necessary to
meet the principles.​

In reading the bracket, then, we should keep in mind that the number on the paper doesn't necessarily reflect a team's "true" seed. We can't always tell when this "movability" provision has been invoked, but in a few cases we can.

The committee chair identified the "last 4 in" as (in alphabetical order) Auburn, Cal, Purdue, and UNI. If these teams had been seeded according to their "true" seed, they could have been seeded no higher than #10. However, both Cal and Purdue received #9 seeds.

Others have pointed out two head-scratching seed comparisons between conference rivals: How can Cal be a #9 and Oregon be a #10? How can Drake and UNI both be #10?

But, armed with the knowledge of which teams were and weren't among the last 4 in, we can conclude the following:

• South Florida (not one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #11, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #3 Florida State.
• Purdue (one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #9, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #1 Notre Dame.
  
• Northern Iowa was ranked below Drake by the committee, and Drake may have been moved from #9 to #10 for the geographical matchup with #7 Kansas State (Drake is less than 350 miles from Manhattan, KS; Northern Iowa isn't).
  
• Oregon was ranked higher than Cal by the committee, but for some reason (still unclear to me) the committee chose to move Cal from #10 to #9.

The takeaway is that the committee made liberal use of this movability provision when it entailed a geographical advantage, and we should take the seedings with a heavy grain of salt. Albany was almost certainly moved from #15 to #16, and Syracuse from #7 to #8, to place them at a drivable distance in Storrs. It's also quite possible Tennessee was moved from #6 to #5 to place them at Louisville.

LOL! How many Syracuse women's BB fans are likely to make the 4-5 hour drive from CNY to watch their Orange get buried by 40+ points vs. UCONN?

This musical chair seeding process for geographic reasons is a complete joke.

 

[UcMiami]

LOL! How many Syracuse women's BB fans are likely to make the 4-5 hour drive from CNY to watch their Orange get buried by 40+ points vs. UCONN?

This musical chair seeding process for geographic reasons is a complete joke.

They may get fifty percent of their standard home attendance which would be, what 250?!

 

[Plebe]

Does this sound similar to anything in recent NCAAW history?

Because in the 2012-13 season Notre Dame went undefeated in conference and "dominated" the Big East, but Connecticut lost only three games in conference that season, all to Notre Dame, one in triple overtime and two by a basket. - sound similar? Essentially a push, and other than those "push" games Connecticut dominated the Big East just as much as Notre Dame.

And we all know that turned out..

My point being that two teams from a conference can be on the same seed line, even if one beat the other several times, without the committee necessarily having moved them - they may just have naturally landed there. I don't think that anyone would argue that Connecticut was a natural #2 seed in 2013 just because Notre Dame had a better conference and head-to-head record; and in this case I don't know that you can assume that Drake should have been naturally seeded higher than Northern Iowa; to me these two teams could easily have been on the same line.

P.S. In an interesting twist (?) Drake will, as a #10 seed, have to play Kansas State on their home floor, a team that fellow #10 seed Northern Iowa beat this year. If Drake is actually better than Northern Iowa, that would be bad news for K-State.

You raise a lot of good points. The UConn-Notre Dame rivalry of 2012-13 was also remarkable because, aside from those three closely contested games, their resumes heading into the NCAAs were virtually identical: they had each lost to Baylor and to no one else.

The Drake-UNI comparison this year isn't quite as parallel. UNI had two top-25 RPI wins over K-State and Creighton but only one other top-100 win. Drake had no top-50 RPI wins but 6 top-100 wins, including the trifecta over UNI (#52) and a win over Iowa (#64).

UNI, meanwhile, suffered a 49-point blowout to Iowa and a 24-point loss to Oklahoma State, as well as a bad loss in conference to Southern Illinois. Drake's only losses were to at-large-quality teams.

 

[Alydar]

Included in the manual that governs the selection committee's work is the following provision:

A team may be moved one bracket line from its true
seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed line to a No. 12 seed
line) when it is placed in the bracket, if necessary to
meet the principles.​

It's also quite possible Tennessee was moved from #6 to #5 to place them at Louisville.

According to their own statement they couldn't move Tenn to a 5 seed in OKC because the result wasn't to "meet the principles".

But by putting Tenn in Louisville the committee violated their principle of not seeding two conference rivals so that they meet before the regional final. Tenn and LSU would meet in the S16. With 8 SEC teams in the tournament one team should have been in each half of each regional. The committee should have moved Tenn down one seed from 6 to 7 and swapped them with Temple.

 

[Plebe]

According to their own statement they couldn't move Tenn to a 5 seed because the result wasn't to "meet the principles".

I'm not sure I follow. Which statement was that?

But by putting Tenn in Louisville the committee violated their principle of not seeding two conference rivals so that they meet before the regional final. Tenn and LSU would meet in the S16.

There is no rule per se about conference rivals meeting before the regional final unless they are both (1a) on the top 4 seed lines, and (1b) among the first four teams selected from their conference; or (2) they have already played each other 3 times. The provisions are stated as follows:

• Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
• The committee will attempt to keep conference teams from meeting until the regional final round.
• If the committee is unable to balance the bracket after exhausting all possible options, it has the flexibility to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the first round.

Notice the difference in verbiage between the first two provisions (with "shall") and the third ("will attempt to").

 

[Plebe]

LOL! How many Syracuse women's BB fans are likely to make the 4-5 hour drive from CNY to watch their Orange get buried by 40+ points vs. UCONN?

This musical chair seeding process for geographic reasons is a complete joke.

This "drivability" issue is IMO at least as much about saving the NCAA money on team travel reimbursement as it is about promoting attendance.

 

[oldude]

LOL! How many Syracuse women's BB fans are likely to make the 4-5 hour drive from CNY to watch their Orange get buried by 40+ points vs. UCONN?

This musical chair seeding process for geographic reasons is a complete joke.

You are assuming that the Orange get by Iowa State. IMO there is a good chance that the Cyclones knock them off.

 

[DefenseBB]

LOL! How many Syracuse women's BB fans are likely to make the 4-5 hour drive from CNY to watch their Orange get buried by 40+ points vs. UCONN?

This musical chair seeding process for geographic reasons is a complete joke.

Actually UConnNick it isn't a joke. It is to help with attendance at these games when the host team isn't playing. It has been noted many times how the early rounds struggle with attendance and this is the solution for that has met with some moderate success. I suspect that, yes fans will come for both of Syracuse's games. Please remember they also play Iowa State in the opening round.

 

[UConnNick]

You are assuming that the Orange get by Iowa State. IMO there is a good chance that the Cyclones knock them off.

I'm not assuming anything. They'll get even fewer fans for a game vs Iowa State. Of the two games, UConn is by far the game they're most likely to draw any appreciable crowd for. By appreciable I'm talking less than 500.

 

[UConnNick]

Actually UConnNick it isn't a joke. It is to help with attendance at these games when the host team isn't playing. It has been noted many times how the early rounds struggle with attendance and this is the solution for that has met with some moderate success. I suspect that, yes fans will come for both of Syracuse's games. Please remember they also play Iowa State in the opening round.

Check out their average home attendance. It's in the triple digits. You think they'll draw any significant crowd in Storrs when they can't even draw more than several hundred at home? It is a joke to think Syracuse is going to fill Gampel with anything more than a number of fans that might fit in two buses and a few minivans or cars.

 

[UConnNick]

They may get fifty percent of their standard home attendance which would be, what 250?!

Not so fast, my friend. Others here seem to think a huge horde of Orange supporters will descend on Storrs. If you're a UConn fan, you better buy your tickets because Syracuse fans are scarfing them all up.

 

[Plebe]

Check out their average home attendance. It's in the triple digits.

Syracuse's average home attendance this year is 2,100.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

This "drivability" issue is IMO at least as much about saving the NCAA money on team travel reimbursement as it is about promoting attendance.

I'll kick in the thousand + I'll spend going to Stockton.

 

[mntncougar]

They may get fifty percent of their standard home attendance which would be, what 250?!

Do 10-15 girls really have that many parents and siblings?

 

[Alydar]

I'm not sure I follow. Which statement was that?



There is no rule per se about conference rivals meeting before the regional final unless they are both (1a) on the top 4 seed lines, and (1b) among the first four teams selected from their conference; or (2) they have already played each other 3 times. The provisions are stated as follows:

• Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.
• The committee will attempt to keep conference teams from meeting until the regional final round.
• If the committee is unable to balance the bracket after exhausting all possible options, it has the flexibility to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the first round.

Notice the difference in verbiage between the first two provisions (with "shall") and the third ("will attempt to").

But it would have been a simple thing to avoid. They made no attempt that I can see. In fact they willfully avoided their own guidelines.

 

[UConnNick]

Syracuse's average home attendance this year is 2,100.

That's a very suspect number when you look at their announced attendance numbers. 12 of their 14 home games were roughly between 700 and 1,900, many under 1,000, incuding conference games. The two outliers were, excuse me, Coppin State at almost 4,000, a real eyebrow raiser, and UNC at about 11,000. You go an entire season with crowds of 700 to 1,900 and then miraculously draw a few thousand for Coppin State? You'd have to exercise your willing suspension of disbelief to believe that number.

It doesn't matter anyway. A small contingent of family members and friends of the players will make it to Storrs. Whether they draw 2,000 more or less at home is completely irrelevant. Imagine what crowds of even 2,000 look like in the Carrier Dome, or their usual crowds of less than 1,000.

 

[DefenseBB]

Do 10-15 girls really have that many parents and siblings?

According to the NCAA attendance numbers 2014 570; 2015 710 and 2016 1,018 per home game. So as they haven't got better more fans have attend the Lady Orange games. 2017 number aren't out yet. Plus some alumni who couldn't travel to SC for the ACC so maybe Storrs is closer.

Though this thread seems to be having a VolNation moment....with the tinge of negativity of support. Just sayin...

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

According to the NCAA attendance numbers 2014 570; 2015 710 and 2016 1,018 per home game. So as they haven't got better more fans have attend the Lady Orange games. 2017 number aren't out yet. Plus some alumni who couldn't travel to SC for the ACC so maybe Storrs is closer.

Though this thread seems to be having a VolNation moment....with the tinge of negativity of support. Just sayin...

They're out, but you have to go through a few links. NCAA.com>WBB>Stats (scroll down)>Custom Reporting>View Reports on NCAA.org>Misc Reports>Attendance.

They designed this about how they choose West Regional sites.

Syracuse averaged 2100.

 

[Plebe]

According to the NCAA attendance numbers 2014 570; 2015 710 and 2016 1,018 per home game. So as they haven't got better more fans have attend the Lady Orange games. 2017 number aren't out yet. Plus some alumni who couldn't travel to SC for the ACC so maybe Storrs is closer.

Though this thread seems to be having a VolNation moment....with the tinge of negativity of support. Just sayin...

The average attendance numbers are also available on the Syracuse stats page. Their average attendance has doubled over last year's. Everyone has to start somewhere and 2,000+ for some programs is a commendable improvement, and something to build on.

There was a record crowd of about 11,000 at the Notre Dame game, beating the previous attendance record by a wide margin.

 

[Plebe]

But it would have been a simple thing to avoid. They made no attempt that I can see. In fact they willfully avoided their own guidelines.

They surely wanted to put LSU at Baylor since that's within the 350-mile radius. Geographic proximity and mode of transportation are part of their guidelines.

As for your suggestion that they should've made Tennessee a #7 and swapped them with Temple, this probably wasn't an option because Temple wasn't a "true" #6 seed and therefore could not be moved to the #5 line.

 

[Sonny44]

Why don't we just focus on enjoying beating the c@#p out of whomever we're playing?

 

[oldude]

Check out their average home attendance. It's in the triple digits. You think they'll draw any significant crowd in Storrs when they can't even draw more than several hundred at home? It is a joke to think Syracuse is going to fill Gampel with anything more than a number of fans that might fit in two buses and a few minivans or cars.

Considering that the Dome holds 30,000 fans for basketball, that's a lot of empty seats.

 

[magic]

Included in the manual that governs the selection committee's work is the following provision:

A team may be moved one bracket line from its true
seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed line to a No. 12 seed
line) when it is placed in the bracket, if necessary to
meet the principles.​

In reading the bracket, then, we should keep in mind that the number on the paper doesn't necessarily reflect a team's "true" seed. We can't always tell when this "movability" provision has been invoked, but in a few cases we can.

The committee chair identified the "last 4 in" as (in alphabetical order) Auburn, Cal, Purdue, and UNI. If these teams had been seeded according to their "true" seed, they could have been seeded no higher than #10. However, both Cal and Purdue received #9 seeds.

Others have pointed out two head-scratching seed comparisons between conference rivals: How can Cal be a #9 and Oregon be a #10? How can Drake and UNI both be #10?

But, armed with the knowledge of which teams were and weren't among the last 4 in, we can conclude the following:

• South Florida (not one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #11, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #3 Florida State.
• Purdue (one of the last 4 in) was moved from #10 to #9, almost certainly for the geographical matchup with #1 Notre Dame.
  
• Northern Iowa was ranked below Drake by the committee, and Drake may have been moved from #9 to #10 for the geographical matchup with #7 Kansas State (Drake is less than 350 miles from Manhattan, KS; Northern Iowa isn't).
  
• Oregon was ranked higher than Cal by the committee, but for some reason (still unclear to me) the committee chose to move Cal from #10 to #9.

The takeaway is that the committee made liberal use of this movability provision when it entailed a geographical advantage, and we should take the seedings with a heavy grain of salt. Albany was almost certainly moved from #15 to #16, and Syracuse from #7 to #8, to place them at a drivable distance in Storrs. It's also quite possible Tennessee was moved from #6 to #5 to place them at Louisville.

And let's include the " power of television " !