The Most Empirically Accurate Team Ranking Systems Since 2004

[Gael]

From 2004 through 2026 most of the available ranking sites/systems have been entered as a bracket into the ESPN Tourney Challenge for the women's college basketball NCAAT. That includes the human ranking systems such as the AP, Coaches and ESPN polls; plus the free computerized ranking systems such as Massey, Sagarin, Torvik T-Rank, Sonny Moore, Warren Nolan, LMRC, Omni and Hero; plus the Selection Committee tools such as RPI, NET and WAB (wins above bubble).

Over this 22 year period, some of the computerized ranking systems have come into being (e.g., T-Rank) and some have disappeared (e.g., Sagarin).

Torvik's T-Rank was made an official Selection Committee tool on the men's side in 2025, and he is often cited on the women's boards here. WAB was a new tool officially given to the women's Selection Committee in 2026.

Here are the historical winners of the Ranker Bracket:

2004 Massey
2005 Sagarin
2006 Sagarin (2)
2007 Massey (2)
2008 RPI
2009 Massey (3)
2010 AP & ESPN polls
2011 Moore
2012 Massey (4)
2013 Reid
2014 Sagarin (3)
2015 Sagarin (4)
2016 Sagarin (5) and AP Poll (2)
2017 Hero Sports
2018 Real Time RPI
2019 Donchess
2021 LRMC
2022 AP Poll (3)
2023 SRS
2024 RPI (2)
2025 NET
2026 WAB

So, the most frequent winners have been Sagarin 5x, Massey 4x, AP Poll 3x, and RPI 2x.

Interestingly, in 2026 WAB came in first in its debut season, while Torvik's T-Rank system came in last.

Here are the full 2026 Ranker Bracket results:

WAB wins at 1720
RPI is at 1680
Eng.land is at 1580
Versus, Bihl, and Packard are at 1540
Who Earned It is at 1520
LRMC is at 1280
Talisman Red is at 1250
Moore is at 1240
Omni, Wheelus, and NET are at 1220
Massey, RAMS, Wilson Empirical, and the Polls are at 1210
AMSTS, and SRS are at 1200
T-Rank is at 1190

I've never entered an NCAAT bracket and don't know how points are awarded, so don't ask me about that.

 

[ucmiami2]

Interesting.

I was wondering, these are all developed for MBB and then applied directly to women's basketball. While the games are similar, they are not exactly the same and I suspect there might be tweaks that could be made specific to the women. Also, would they tweak between pro/college for either gender.

 

[YoDore]

I've never entered an NCAAT bracket and don't know how points are awarded, so don't ask me about that.

1920 is a perfect score. Individual games become worth more as the tournament progresses.