The last six 2 seeds to win by 11 or fewer points vs a 15 seed.

[Travelman6]

Not counting the 4 times a 15 won since 2014.

2025 Alabama
90-81 over Robert Morris
Made it to the elite 8 before losing by 20 to Duke

2019 Michigan State
76-65 over Bradley
Made it to the final four before losing to Texas Tech

2019 Tennessee
77-70 over Cogate
Lost sweet 16 to 3 seed Purdue in OT 99-94

2017 Kentucky
79-70 over Northern Kentucky
Lost by 2 to UNC in the Elite 8

2015 Gonzaga
86-76 over ND State
Lost to Duke by 14 in the Elite 8

2014 Kansas
80-69 over E. Kentucky
Lost next round to Stanford (10) by 3

12-19 point margins are very, very common for 2 over 15. 25 times a 2 has won by 19 or fewer points since 2014, so these games often aren't excessive blowouts like we might tend to think. I think the gap between 15 and 16 is quite wide, in fact.

So, all that to say, the 11-point win last night doesn't necessarily mean a lot for what to expect moving forward. It doesn't have to at least. And since UConn likes to do many things for the first time, perhaps it can be the first 2 seed in a long time, possibly ever, to make the championship after a tight first round over a 15, or at the very least replicate MSU 2019.

 

[upstater]

This is going to be a mucky game against Cronin's UCLA. Haven't watched much of them this year, but man they play like his old Cincy teams. This shakes up to be a game very similar to our BE games. Hurley and Cronin are going to blow their stacks.

 

[noelle]

it just depends on the status of silas. the game is whatever. guys shot terribly

 

[TroyHall98]

This is going to be a mucky game against Cronin's UCLA. Haven't watched much of them this year, but man they play like his old Cincy teams. This shakes up to be a game very similar to our BE games. Hurley and Cronin are going to blow their stacks.

Agreed. Their guards defend aggressively and force turnovers. Need a steady hand at the 1 who can withstand the pressure and get us into our actions with some quickness. Malachi might be better at that than Silas ironically.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Agreed. Their guards defend aggressively and force turnovers. Need a steady hand at the 1 who can withstand the pressure and get us into our actions with some quickness. Malachi might be better at that than Silas ironically.

They might cause turnovers, but they dont have the physicaliality of his old teams. They gave up 25 offensive rebounds last night.

 

[Travelman6]

Reed needs to have another monster game. If he grabs 15 boards and 6 or 7 offensive, I like UConns chances. Could be his "coming out party" starting yesterday and continuing on.

 

[Drame]

How many teams won in overtime in their first round then went on to win the Natty. Not sure but I know we did. This analysis means absolutely nothing.

 

[Travelman6]

This analysis means absolutely nothing.

Ya, well you don't need to post. Sports are full of all sorts of stats and analysis, this is simply more of that.

 

[champs99and04]

I agree with your premise that UConn can still make it far, but it's worth noting that, due to the portal, today's 15-seeds appear to be significantly diminished compared to what they used to be. Last night's performance should cause some alarm - ten years ago, if a 2-seed submitted that type of performance, there's a decent chance it would have ended in a loss.

 

[AdamaNation]

Not counting the 4 times a 15 won since 2014.

2025 Alabama
90-81 over Robert Morris
Made it to the elite 8 before losing by 20 to Duke

2019 Michigan State
76-65 over Bradley
Made it to the final four before losing to Texas Tech

2019 Tennessee
77-70 over Cogate
Lost sweet 16 to 3 seed Purdue in OT 99-94

2017 Kentucky
79-70 over Northern Kentucky
Lost by 2 to UNC in the Elite 8

2015 Gonzaga
86-76 over ND State
Lost to Duke by 14 in the Elite 8

2014 Kansas
80-69 over E. Kentucky
Lost next round to Stanford (10) by 3

12-19 point margins are very, very common for 2 over 15. 25 times a 2 has won by 19 or fewer points since 2014, so these games often aren't excessive blowouts like we might tend to think. I think the gap between 15 and 16 is quite wide, in fact.

So, all that to say, the 11-point win last night doesn't necessarily mean a lot for what to expect moving forward. It doesn't have to at least. And since UConn likes to do many things for the first time, perhaps it can be the first 2 seed in a long time, possibly ever, to make the championship after a tight first round over a 15, or at the very least replicate MSU 2019.

I’m sure stats are stats but missing an all conference guard and shooting as woefully as we did leaves me fairly(?) optimistic.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I agree with your premise that UConn can still make it far, but it's worth noting that, due to the portal, today's 15-seeds appear to be significantly diminished compared to what they used to be. Last night's performance should cause some alarm - ten years ago, if a 2-seed submitted that type of performance, there's a decent chance it would have ended in a loss.

I actually felt the opposite. I thought Furman looked bigger and more skilled than many 15 seeds I've seen. It's all subjective to a point, obviously, but even though Siena and Furman didn't advance they sure didn't roll over. That was one of the most impressive 15 and 16 seeds I've seen in a long time

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

How many teams won in overtime in their first round then went on to win the Natty. Not sure but I know we did. This analysis means absolutely nothing.

It was informative, and the work that went into it, and the generous spirit that went into sharing it with others are all meaningful.

If you personally got nothing out of it, then have the courage & personal integrity to state so accurately and responsibly.

 

[Scoe]

I agree with your premise that UConn can still make it far, but it's worth noting that, due to the portal, today's 15-seeds appear to be significantly diminished compared to what they used to be. Last night's performance should cause some alarm - ten years ago, if a 2-seed submitted that type of performance, there's a decent chance it would have ended in a loss.

It's not to say there aren't concerns but keep in mind the start time and playing without Silas.

 

[champs99and04]

I actually felt the opposite. I thought Furman looked bigger and more skilled than many 15 seeds I've seen. It's all subjective to a point, obviously, but even though Siena and Furman didn't advance they sure didn't roll over. That was one of the most impressive 15 and 16 seeds I've seen in a long time

Maybe, but the other 2-seeds all won by 30+, and there's no reason to think they were all that different. And the poor shooting has become a trend that's harder to chalk up to just a bad night.

It's not to say there aren't concerns but keep in mind the start time and playing without Silas.

Silas makes a huge difference, but I'm concerned about his ability to play and be near 100% on Sunday. If he wasn't able to play after a full week off, I'm not sure he'll be able to go tomorrow.

 

[Woof]

How many teams won in overtime in their first round then went on to win the Natty. Not sure but I know we did. This analysis means absolutely nothing.

As a 2 seed over a 15 seed?

 

[Woof]

Not counting the 4 times a 15 won since 2014.

2025 Alabama
90-81 over Robert Morris
Made it to the elite 8 before losing by 20 to Duke

2019 Michigan State
76-65 over Bradley
Made it to the final four before losing to Texas Tech

2019 Tennessee
77-70 over Cogate
Lost sweet 16 to 3 seed Purdue in OT 99-94

2017 Kentucky
79-70 over Northern Kentucky
Lost by 2 to UNC in the Elite 8

2015 Gonzaga
86-76 over ND State
Lost to Duke by 14 in the Elite 8

2014 Kansas
80-69 over E. Kentucky
Lost next round to Stanford (10) by 3

12-19 point margins are very, very common for 2 over 15. 25 times a 2 has won by 19 or fewer points since 2014, so these games often aren't excessive blowouts like we might tend to think. I think the gap between 15 and 16 is quite wide, in fact.

So, all that to say, the 11-point win last night doesn't necessarily mean a lot for what to expect moving forward. It doesn't have to at least. And since UConn likes to do many things for the first time, perhaps it can be the first 2 seed in a long time, possibly ever, to make the championship after a tight first round over a 15, or at the very least replicate MSU 2019.

Zero championships. Yep, that sounds about right. 😢

 

[Jaydumo20]

Maybe, but the other 2-seeds all won by 30+, and there's no reason to think they were all that different. And the poor shooting has become a trend that's harder to chalk up to just a bad night.

There is a lot of chalk this year.
But 15 seeds are 11-153 or so against 2 seeds since the beginning of the tourney. That's not a statistically significant number.
Surprisingly it has actually become more frequent in the 2020's