The lack of upsets, and way to fix the tournament

[businesslawyer]

Three things happened in the last 4 years:

1) Alston case legalized NIL
2) House Settlement paved the way for paying players directly.
3) Transfer Portal, the result of maybe a dozen of individual cases, removed restrictions on transfers.

College sports will be defined as before and after these three events. We are in a new world. Best to just adapt to it.

I know you don’t care, but I don’t see anyone actually disagreeing with you. Just urging caution and statistical significance before making definitive conclusions

 

[ConnMotors]

The solution to this original post is to eliminate the portal or go back to where you need to sit out a year if you transfer. Except if a coach leaves. This gives the mid major and lower level conferences more strength on their teams. And now they can compete.

 

[Ripper32]

Mid majors are being poached every year because of the financial incentive. I don't know how you can consistently build a program at that level with the money situation being out of control.

 

[uconnyankee]

Things are just so predictable now. Everyone I know still has a perfect bracket.

Really? Everyone called Highpoint over Wisconsin?
That’s pretty impressive.

 

[RuffRuff]

Mid majors are being poached every year because of the financial incentive. I don't know how you can consistently build a program at that level with the money situation being out of control.

I don't even know how you set a recruiting strategy as a mid major - every year as it's own year. Is there even an ability to get creative? You have to find suprising talent, or roll over talent that is just barely not good enough to get poached, which says something in of itself.

This Wilkins kid for Furman is 100% gone after year one. Somehow Furman snuck him through HS recruiting under the radar and he surprised. You have to do this over and over again as a MM, on an annual basis. Has to be exhausting.

 

[BGesus4]

Things are just so predictable now. Everyone I know still has a perfect bracket.

ESPN has 195 perfect brackets remaining out of ~20M brackets… so I guess I don’t believe you

 

[Windham4th]

I'd much rather watch a team of overachievers like High Point play and lose then 17-16 freaking Auburn beat a decent Seton Hall. Play-ins for ALL at large spots. Last 4 in should be playing in Dayton in existing format.

Underdogs are why many people love the tournament. Not for the "quality" basketball matchups of name brands. The marketers are the ones who prefer that.

 

[MrJoe]

college sports thus the ncaa tournament as we knew it is over. it’s a lower level profession league . the kids at a high point or furman who played well will xfer to “better” schools. coaches at those school must deal with the new norm… it’s why luke and kamani chose to stay rather than take what would have been the next logical job in the past.

 

[UConnJim]

If you go back to the year 2000, The mid major conferences had much better seedings than today. There were 18 mid major schools with seeding of 12 or better (6 of the schools are now P5, so 12 schools that are still mid major had seedings 12 or better). Five schools were favored based on their seeds and 3 were tossup 9 seeds. This year, there were 10 mid majors with seeds 12 or better, but only 2 were expected to win based on seeding and 2 were the 9 seed in tossup games and 5 mid majors won, so they already have exceeded their win total based on seedings.

Look at the 6/11, 7/10, 8/9 matchups between a P5 and a mid major plus the one playin game between a P5 and a mid major. The mid majors were 5-4 and the point differential in all of the games combined was 6 points. The mid majors belong.

Due to the use of analytics and specifically the NET, P5 schools are advantaged over mid majors and get better seeds. There has to be a better way to seed the mid majors.

 

[bendm]

This would open 4 more slots for at-large. Assume Seton Hall, San Diego State, New Mexico, Indiana at the 13/12 lines,

Incredibly drastic and unnecessary. Furthermore Only 1 of these teams (NM) is a midmajor as of next year, So the proposal to “fix the tourney” is further expansion for the sake of the high majors? Why should we cater to the casual fan by making it even harder for the low and mid majors to compete by putting them all in play ins? This is the bed the ncaa made now they need to sleep in it. Sweet dreams!

 

[RuffRuff]

If you go back to the year 2000, The mid major conferences had much better seedings than today. There were 18 mid major schools with seeding of 12 or better (6 of the schools are now P5, so 12 schools that are still mid major had seedings 12 or better). Five schools were favored based on their seeds and 3 were tossup 9 seeds. This year, there were 10 mid majors with seeds 12 or better, but only 2 were expected to win based on seeding and 2 were the 9 seed in tossup games and 5 mid majors won, so they already have exceeded their win total based on seedings.

Look at the 6/11, 7/10, 8/9 matchups between a P5 and a mid major plus the one playin game between a P5 and a mid major. The mid majors were 5-4 and the point differential in all of the games combined was 6 points. The mid majors belong.

Due to the use of analytics and specifically the NET, P5 schools are advantaged over mid majors and get better seeds. There has to be a better way to seed the mid majors.

Really has nothing to do with the NET - has everything to do with them not being as good anymore. Don't forget the Zags and St Mary's always register high on the NET. In 2000, a mid major could get a kid like Wilkins and keep him for 3-4 years. They could potentially have 3-4 of them at once, and hold onto them. Now - as soon as they show their stuff, they are out. There is no way to build/maintain a good roster at the MM level. This is all of it.

Few is able to do it because he seems to have some NIL, but also gets really creative with euros and old guys.

 

[JwittersPAC]

The solution to this original post is to eliminate the portal or go back to where you need to sit out a year if you transfer. Except if a coach leaves. This gives the mid major and lower level conferences more strength on their teams. And now they can compete.

Never happening. Courts have ruled on this issue already.

 

[Scoe]

It's a 365 team field on March 1st, the conference tournaments are the season for the mid majors since I don't know forever and will continue to be. Now 15 loss teams regardless of conference should have to win their conference tournament to get in. Upsets are rare it's why they are called upsets.

Sure it's more rare with NIL and the portal but thats the way it goes. The system has always been against mid majors. I do think there should be some kind of metrics for a P4 conference team in scheduling a good mid major team.

 

[champs99and04]

There were plenty of close call upsets that just didn't materialize this year. Furman, Kennesaw St. Mcneese, and Siena all put scares into their opponents. The ball bounces the right way here or there, and one of those could of happened.

If you don't want to go by record, let's try point differential. Here are seeds 12-16:

2015 - (-11.5)
2016 - (-13.2)
2017 - (-14.5)
2018 - (-9.9)
2019 - (-11.7)
2021 - (-11.7)
2022 - (-14.9)
2023 - (-12.6)
2024 - (-14.7)
2025 - (-19.3)
2026 - (-21.9)

Notice the massive increase over the last two tournaments. It's not just one bounce here or there - most of these teams are overmatched from the opening tip.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If you don't want to go by record, let's try point differential. Here are seeds 12-16:

2015 - (-11.5)
2016 - (-13.2)
2017 - (-14.5)
2018 - (-9.9)
2019 - (-11.7)
2021 - (-11.7)
2022 - (-14.9)
2023 - (-12.6)
2024 - (-14.7)
2025 - (-19.3)
2026 - (-21.9)

Notice the massive increase over the last two tournaments. It's not just one bounce here or there - most of these teams are overmatched from the opening tip.

Thank you for providing that. The first jump, in 2022, occurred right after the Alston case.

The effective margin is actually worse than that, because most of the favorites jumped up big early and coasted. Teams will go into time wasting sets early in the second half of a mismatch in a tournament because of the consequences of an injury. Big favorites will also pull starters early in a mismatch.

Of the three "close" games in the first round this year, two involved teams, Duke and UConn, that were missing key players. Neither game is close if Duke and UConn are at full strength.

 

[RuffRuff]

If you don't want to go by record, let's try point differential. Here are seeds 12-16:

2015 - (-11.5)
2016 - (-13.2)
2017 - (-14.5)
2018 - (-9.9)
2019 - (-11.7)
2021 - (-11.7)
2022 - (-14.9)
2023 - (-12.6)
2024 - (-14.7)
2025 - (-19.3)
2026 - (-21.9)

Notice the massive increase over the last two tournaments. It's not just one bounce here or there - most of these teams are overmatched from the opening tip.

Good data - fairly peanut butter for a decade, then the spike to these last two years. Hate to say I told you so. It won't get better.

This is all about NIL maturing, hs and portal recruit aculturizing to it.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's a 365 team field on March 1st, the conference tournaments are the season for the mid majors since I don't know forever and will continue to be. Now 15 loss teams regardless of conference should have to win their conference tournament to get in. Upsets are rare it's why they are called upsets.

Sure it's more rare with NIL and the portal but thats the way it goes. The system has always been against mid majors. I do think there should be some kind of metrics for a P4 conference team in scheduling a good mid major team.

The gap between the mid-majors like A10 and MWC (next year's Pac 12) and the low majors is growing too. The A10 pays 2-3x what the MAC pays (I know the uncle of a kid that switched leagues), and the Pac 12 gap may be even bigger. The American, WCC and MWC will likely be fading down with the recent realignment moves and the American's general decline.

I think the A10 and Pac 12 can earn multiple at-large bids and the top teams can compete with the middle of the pack in the P4+BE. A middle of the pack A10 or Pac 12 team will beat a middle of the pack MVC or MAC team 9 times out of 10. The conferences at the bottom of D1 like America East, NEC and MAAC are not even in the same time zone in terms of competitiveness.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Good data - fairly peanut butter for a decade, then the spike to these last two years. Hate to say I told you so. It won't get better.

This is all about NIL maturing, hs and portal recruit aculturizing to it.

Huh? You are taking credit for this insight? EVERYONE saw this coming with House.

 

[RuffRuff]

Huh? You are taking credit for this insight? EVERYONE saw this coming with House.

I dont care about credit but have been saying cinderella is dead for awhile now, with rationale, and plenty here said last year was an outlier, yada. Yet here we are - an even more lopsided lack of cinderellas this year.

 

[Scoe]

Making rash decisions on emotions doesn’t make things better in fact it makes it worse.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Making rash decisions on emotions doesn’t make things better in fact it makes it worse.

Ignoring facts because of emotional attachments to tradition always makes things worse, and there are a lot of facts in this thread.

 

[RuffRuff]

The gap between the mid-majors like A10 and MWC (next year's Pac 12) and the low majors is growing too. The A10 pays 2-3x what the MAC pays (I know the uncle of a kid that switched leagues), and the Pac 12 gap may be even bigger. The American, WCC and MWC will likely be fading down with the recent realignment moves and the American's general decline.

I think the A10 and Pac 12 can earn multiple at-large bids and the top teams can compete with the middle of the pack in the P4+BE. A middle of the pack A10 or Pac 12 team will beat a middle of the pack MVC or MAC team 9 times out of 10. The conferences at the bottom of D1 like America East, NEC and MAAC are not even in the same time zone in terms of competitiveness.

Maybe so, but the ceiling for the A10 and MWC is round of 32. They'll be capped at exactly what this year was, an 8-9 game and potentially one win. So yeah, the best team/teams from those two can maybe win a game against a low seed from a P4. Not exactly what I would call an exciting outcome.

I would be shocked if the S16 going forward is not made up of entirely P4 and 1 or maybe 2 BE teams max.

 

[superjohn]

This Wilkins kid for Furman is 100% gone after year one. Somehow Furman snuck him through HS recruiting under the radar and he surprised.

What on earth does this mean?

 

[ValleyGuy]

I don't even know how you set a recruiting strategy as a mid major - every year as it's own year. Is there even an ability to get creative? You have to find suprising talent, or roll over talent that is just barely not good enough to get poached, which says something in of itself.

This Wilkins kid for Furman is 100% gone after year one. Somehow Furman snuck him through HS recruiting under the radar and he surprised. You have to do this over and over again as a MM, on an annual basis. Has to be exhausting.

They didn’t sneak him through. These kids are more prevalent these days. HS players aren’t getting recruited as heavily. Mid majors are able to get some really good players because high majors aren’t recruiting them

Problem is they’re gone after one season. No chance to build a team that has all juniors on it that is an extremely dangerous 12 seed

 

[Scoe]

Ignoring facts because of emotional attachments to tradition always makes things worse, and there are a lot of facts in this thread.

I guess your seed matters now more than ever so the regular season matters now. People complained about the regular season being meaningless and people complained about UNC having St Peters in the elite 8 there’s never going to be a perfect system.

It’s a 364 team tournament on March 1 a mid majors season is always going to end in a loss regardless.