oldude
bamboo lover
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- Nov 15, 2016
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Og, I appreciate the stats and your thoughtful analysis. But I need to make a couple points.I sort of disagree with your thesis here. In 2015-2016, the last year of the Stewart era, UConn scored 1.22 points per possession and allowed .67 points per possession. Last year, UConn scored 1.21 points per posession and allowed .72. (stats per natstat.com/wbb). So the offense is about the same and there is only slight slippage with the defense (.72 was still easily #1 in the nation in defensive points per possession). I would argue that any variance in the defense is more down to personnel than injury. As terrific as they are, neither Gabby nor Kia is comparable to Stewie as a defensive menace.
I'm sure the injuries had some impact. KLS having surgery after the season ended tells the story of the severity of her injury. How could that not have an impact? But at least statistically, they seemed to be able to overcome those injuries all season long. I don't remember much buzz before the ND game about UConn injuries as a possible stumbling block. On the contrary, I recall discussion that Gabby's migraines and Lou's ankle kept the regular season meeting close and that comparatively better health for UConn (and no Thompson for ND) would result in a more decisive victory for UConn in the rematch.
So I'm a little torn here. Yes, of course, the injuries had some impact. On the other hand, UConn had more than enough resources to win that game. "Our results would have been better had we been healthier" is a legitimate statement but it's also a statement that probably every team in the tournament could make. One can play the "what if" game infinitely. Making the best of it with what you have is part of the nature of sports.
While it pains me to say so, UConn’s season stats have been remarkably similar over the past 5 years for a very good reason. During the 2013-14 season the AAC was formed, and UConn WBB has not lost a single regular season or conference tournament game during the entire period while racking up some pretty impressive stats in the process.
As far as the past season, this is as much an “eyeball test” as anything, and I’ll acknowledge that the difference is not substantial. But imo if you watch an entire season of UConn WBB, it’s pretty clear to me that during 2016-17 a team with less talent was superior in terms of their overall execution in big games than the deeper, more experienced 2017-18 team.
UConn was clearly more talented this past season. Geno and his staff didn’t all of a sudden forget how to coach. IMHO it came down to the health of 2 key players, their lack of practice time and the impact it had on the overall execution on offense and defense during the Big Dance.