The impact of Lou & Crystal's injuries last season?

[oldude]

I sort of disagree with your thesis here. In 2015-2016, the last year of the Stewart era, UConn scored 1.22 points per possession and allowed .67 points per possession. Last year, UConn scored 1.21 points per posession and allowed .72. (stats per natstat.com/wbb). So the offense is about the same and there is only slight slippage with the defense (.72 was still easily #1 in the nation in defensive points per possession). I would argue that any variance in the defense is more down to personnel than injury. As terrific as they are, neither Gabby nor Kia is comparable to Stewie as a defensive menace.

I'm sure the injuries had some impact. KLS having surgery after the season ended tells the story of the severity of her injury. How could that not have an impact? But at least statistically, they seemed to be able to overcome those injuries all season long. I don't remember much buzz before the ND game about UConn injuries as a possible stumbling block. On the contrary, I recall discussion that Gabby's migraines and Lou's ankle kept the regular season meeting close and that comparatively better health for UConn (and no Thompson for ND) would result in a more decisive victory for UConn in the rematch.

So I'm a little torn here. Yes, of course, the injuries had some impact. On the other hand, UConn had more than enough resources to win that game. "Our results would have been better had we been healthier" is a legitimate statement but it's also a statement that probably every team in the tournament could make. One can play the "what if" game infinitely. Making the best of it with what you have is part of the nature of sports.

Og, I appreciate the stats and your thoughtful analysis. But I need to make a couple points.

While it pains me to say so, UConn’s season stats have been remarkably similar over the past 5 years for a very good reason. During the 2013-14 season the AAC was formed, and UConn WBB has not lost a single regular season or conference tournament game during the entire period while racking up some pretty impressive stats in the process.

As far as the past season, this is as much an “eyeball test” as anything, and I’ll acknowledge that the difference is not substantial. But imo if you watch an entire season of UConn WBB, it’s pretty clear to me that during 2016-17 a team with less talent was superior in terms of their overall execution in big games than the deeper, more experienced 2017-18 team.

UConn was clearly more talented this past season. Geno and his staff didn’t all of a sudden forget how to coach. IMHO it came down to the health of 2 key players, their lack of practice time and the impact it had on the overall execution on offense and defense during the Big Dance.

 

[SCspur]

Didn’t know where to post this but I thought you guys might like to see that KLS is working hard for her senior campaign!!



Jason Wright on Instagram: “Week 3. Working on movement process, hand control and reaction moves @katielou33 . . . . . #ballislife #basketballneverstop…”

Jason Wright on Instagram: “Jwbasketball drill of the day!!!! Stay on the grind and innovative!!!! #inthegymrightnow #basketballneverstops #jwbasketballtraining…”

 

[oldude]

Didn’t know where to post this but I thought you guys might like to see that KLS is working hard for her senior campaign!!



Jason Wright on Instagram: “Week 3. Working on movement process, hand control and reaction moves @katielou33 . . . . . #ballislife #basketballneverstop…”

Jason Wright on Instagram: “Jwbasketball drill of the day!!!! Stay on the grind and innovative!!!! #inthegymrightnow #basketballneverstops #jwbasketballtraining…”

That’s our girl. While she appears to have some type of wrap on her left ankle, it’s really good to see Lou’s footwork, particularly the spin moves. It would be great if her ankle is a “non-issue” this season.

 

[SCspur]

That’s our girl. While she appears to have some type of wrap on her left ankle, it’s really good to see Lou’s footwork, particularly the spin moves. It would be great if her ankle is a “non-issue” this season.

Courtesy of Jason Williams! Big time trainer known in the So Cal area but has started to branch out around the country. He is currently training my younger sisters, and I’ve seen both of their games make a big 360 from where they were a year ago! I’m a big fan of KLS (hope the Aces get her!), so I know Jason will have her prepared and better than ever for her last go round!

 

[CocoHusky]

Og, I appreciate the stats and your thoughtful analysis. But I need to make a couple points.
\While it pains me to say so, UConn’s season stats have been remarkably similar over the past 5 years for a very good reason. During the 2013-14 season the AAC was formed, and UConn WBB has not lost a single regular season or conference tournament game during the entire period while racking up some pretty impressive stats in the process.

As far as the past season, this is as much an “eyeball test” as anything, and I’ll acknowledge that the difference is not substantial. But imo if you watch an entire season of UConn WBB, it’s pretty clear to me that during 2016-17 a team with less talent was superior in terms of their overall execution in big games than the deeper, more experienced 2017-18 team.

UConn was clearly more talented this past season. Geno and his staff didn’t all of a sudden forget how to coach. IMHO it came down to the health of 2 key players, their lack of practice time and the impact it had on the overall execution on offense and defense during the Big Dance.

My "eyeball test" would force me to disagree with your opinion mainly because just one game prior against South Carolina Crystal Dangerfield looked like a world beater. Basketball is a competitive team endeavor, sometimes the other team just plays better and you have too give them credit. Blaming a loss on injury is weak way of not giving the other team any credit-IMO.

 

[oldude]

My "eyeball test" would force me to disagree with your opinion mainly because just one game prior against South Carolina Crystal Dangerfield looked like a world beater. Basketball is a competitive team endeavor, sometimes the other team just plays better and you have too give them credit. Blaming a loss on injury is weak way of not giving the other team any credit-IMO.

I was at the Regionals in Albany. Crystal had a great game vs SC, a team who’s perimeter defense was terrible. Of course she still had to knock down her shots. Against Duke in the Sweet 16 and earlier in the tournament, Crystal was not as effective.

But you really need to read my posts. I give ND credit for overcoming their injuries, and point to UConn execution problems as being an issue for much of the season. It’s intended as an explanation, not an excuse.

 

[CocoHusky]

I was at the Regionals in Albany. Crystal had a great game vs SC, a team who’s perimeter defense was terrible. Of course she still had to knock down her shots. Against Duke in the Sweet 16 and earlier in the tournament, Crystal was not as effective.
But you really need to read my posts. I give ND credit for overcoming their injuries, and point to UConn execution problems as being an issue for much of the season. It’s intended as an explanation, not an excuse.

I did read your post. I also recall that you attributed the SC Championship to "extraordinary luck". i.e., SC did not have to play UCONN to win a championship.

Please read my post again. While I clearly focus on SC’s extraordinary luck in last years championship run, I certainly mention that talent and coaching were also elements of SC’s success.

This year ND did have to play UCONN enroute to a championship so your "explanation" suddenly shifts i.e., UCONN was injured. IMO your explanation are excuses.

"That's the beauty of this tournament. For just this one night we had to be better than them (ND) and tonight we were."
Geno 2013 FF.

There is no good reason why Geno's simple explanation from 2013 cannot be applied entirely to any FF.

 

[oldude]

I did read your post. I also recall that you attributed the SC Championship to "extraordinary luck". i.e., SC did not have to play UCONN to win a championship.

This year ND did have to play UCONN enroute to a championship so your "explanation" suddenly shifts i.e., UCONN was injured. IMO your explanation are excuses.

"That's the beauty of this tournament. For just this one night we had to be better than them (ND) and tonight we were."
Geno 2013 FF.

There is no good reason why Geno's simple explanation from 2013 cannot be applied entirely to any FF.

You seem to have a penchant for mischaracterizing my posts. So let's start with SC's championship. UConn may, or may not have beaten SC had they made it to the finals. But there were several elements of "luck" for the Gamecocks that had nothing to do with the Huskies. I repeatedly suggested that SC was a better team after the injury to Coates. It opened up the lane for Gray & Davis to drive to the basket, and it allowed Cuevas-Moore to play the 2-guard, where she was far more effective spotting up from the arc, without having to deal with the responsibilities of running the offense at pg.

In addition, despite Dawn's ire at being sent to the West Regional, SC had the easiest bracket to navigate by far. In the Sweet 16 game, the Gamecocks faced Cinderella Quinnipiac, and the clock struck midnight on the team from Hamden, CT. They next face and beat FSU, the #8 seed in the region, after the Seminoles upset #2 seed OSU. In the 1st half of the national semifinal, with Stanford hanging close, Karlie Samuelson, the Cardinal's best shooter and senior leader, goes down with an ankle injury. I would say that sequence of events constitutes an extraordinary run of luck. As for UConn not facing SC in the final, while many BY'ers sought to blame the loss on various Huskies coming up short, I have been consistent in my belief that MSU was a better team and deserved to win.

Geno says a lot of things. What he said in 2013 was Geno being gracious in victory. The Huskies owned the Irish on that day beating them by 18 points, and the game wasn't that close. The difference between that game and the 3 close losses to the Irish earlier in the season was Stewie, who, at that point in the season, after some ups and downs as a freshman, was the very best player in the country. Geno was far less gracious after the loss to ND this past year, because he knew he had the talent to win it all and the Huskies came up short against a talented and determined Irish team. Not only was UConn's execution less than stellar, but quite frankly, Geno was outcoached by MM. You can choose to spin my analysis whatever way you want, but I guarantee you that Geno and his coaching staff have looked long and hard at the ND game as well as the entire 2017-18 season in an effort to pinpoint and correct the execution problems that followed the Huskies throughout the season. I believe that two critical keys to UConn making a run at their 12th championship this season will be keeping Lou and Crystal healthy, so they can be at practice, working constantly with their teammates until they "can't get it wrong."

 

[CocoHusky]

You seem to have a penchant for mischaracterizing my posts. So let's start with SC's championship. UConn may, or may not have beaten SC had they made it to the finals. But there were several elements of "luck" for the Gamecocks that had nothing to do with the Huskies. I repeatedly suggested that SC was a better team after the injury to Coates. It opened up the lane for Gray & Davis to drive to the basket, and it allowed Cuevas-Moore to play the 2-guard, where she was far more effective spotting up from the arc, without having to deal with the responsibilities of running the offense at pg.
In addition, despite Dawn's ire at being sent to the West Regional, SC had the easiest bracket to navigate by far. In the Sweet 16 game, the Gamecocks faced Cinderella Quinnipiac, and the clock struck midnight on the team from Hamden, CT. They next face and beat FSU, the #8 seed in the region, after the Seminoles upset #2 seed OSU. In the 1st half of the national semifinal, with Stanford hanging close, Karlie Samuelson, the Cardinal's best shooter and senior leader, goes down with an ankle injury. I would say that sequence of events constitutes an extraordinary run of luck. As for UConn not facing SC in the final, while many BY'ers sought to blame the loss on various Huskies coming up short, I have been consistent in my belief that MSU was a better team and deserved to win.

Geno says a lot of things. What he said in 2013 was Geno being gracious in victory. The Huskies owned the Irish on that day beating them by 18 points, and the game wasn't that close. The difference between that game and the 3 close losses to the Irish earlier in the season was Stewie, who, at that point in the season, after some ups and downs as a freshman, was the very best player in the country. Geno was far less gracious after the loss to ND this past year, because he knew he had the talent to win it all and the Huskies came up short against a talented and determined Irish team. Not only was UConn's execution less than stellar, but quite frankly, Geno was outcoached by MM. You can choose to spin my analysis whatever way you want, but I guarantee you that Geno and his coaching staff have looked long and hard at the ND game as well as the entire 2017-18 season in an effort to pinpoint and correct the execution problems that followed the Huskies throughout the season. I believe that two critical keys to UConn making a run at their 12th championship this season will be keeping Lou and Crystal healthy, so they can be at practice, working constantly with their teammates until they "can't get it wrong."

Although I vehemently disagree with your suggestion that "Geno was outcoached by MM" that statement comes much closer to where you refuse to go and that is to give ND "full" credit for beating UCONN & South Carolina "full" credit for winning a championship.
Here is another Geno quote for you to ponder this time it was in defeat .
" It doesn't matter how many top-10 teams you beat. So we won 72 games [the past two years] because we have better players, but we lost two because I was outcoached".

BTW Stewie's 2013 FF performance was brilliant but the "best player in the country" was Brittney Griner.

 

[oldude]

Although I vehemently disagree with your suggestion that "Geno was outcoached by MM" that statement comes much closer to where you refuse to go and that is to give ND "full" credit for beating UCONN & South Carolina "full" credit for winning a championship.
Here is another Geno quote for you to ponder this time it was in defeat .
" It doesn't matter how many top-10 teams you beat. So we won 72 games [the past two years] because we have better players, but we lost two because I was outcoached".

BTW Stewie's 2013 FF performance was brilliant but the "best player in the country" was Brittney Griner.

Cocoa, I have no idea where you get the idea that I don’t give “full” credit to SC & ND for winning their championships. I have done so and continue to do so. But you know enough about basketball to understand that nothing happens in a vacuum, so breaking down the “why” and “how” is what coaches, sportswriters and even lowly fans like us do from time to time.

You continue to miss my main point, which has nothing to do with minimizing SC & ND’s championships, and everything to do with pointing out that UConn’s execution last year was not at the level of the previous year.

You and I will have to disagree on who outcoached who in the game. MM’s team was better prepared at the start, and after UConn stormed back in the 2nd qtr, MM made a number of key adjustments at halftime which pulled the Irish back into the game and ultimately put them in position to win. As for 2013, while Griner was certainly deserving of the NPOY, the best player at the end of the season and MOP in the Big Dance was Stewie.

 

[WLT1717]

One of the key variables IMO is whether Lou and Pheesa have matured from a leadership standpoint such that they can shoulder the weight of UCONN expectations and fulfill their athletic promise. That, and whether MW is now ready to be an impact player. The three of them, plus a talented supporting cast including the Legend and ONO, can compete with anyone.

 

[CocoHusky]

Cocoa, I have no idea where you get the idea that I don’t give “full” credit to SC & ND for winning their championships.

entirely from the bolded parts of your previous post-see below.

Last season, SC won their championship through a combination of talent, coaching and extraordinary luck. It started when Alaina Coates went down, which I will argue made SC a better team with Gray & Davis being able to attack the basket and sharp shooting Bianca-Cuevas moving to the 2 guard.
Then SC draws the easiest regional with only FSU in the way of a trip to the FF. When they get there, ND is not waiting for them, after Turner goes down and the Irish get knocked off by Stanford. In the semifinal, Stanford loses Karlie Samuelson, their best shooter, and SC advances to the championship.
Low & behold, MS St stuns UConn and SC faces a team they’ve already beaten twice. Luck is a part of any championship, but last year Dawn and the Gamecocks hit the lottery.

I absolutely agree that injuries are a part of the game, and while they should not be used an excuse, they can’t be ignored as an underlying factor for a team’s performance. In my OP the point I was making is that while ND did a wonderful job of playing the hand they were dealt (essentially 5 players, with very limited help from the bench), UConn struggled to overcome their injuries and execute at the highest level required to win a championship.

UConn was clearly more talented this past season. Geno and his staff didn’t all of a sudden forget how to coach. IMHO it came down to the health of 2 key players, their lack of practice time and the impact it had on the overall execution on offense and defense during the Big Dance.

Not only was UConn's execution less than stellar, but quite frankly, Geno was outcoached by MM.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Two seasons back, an undersized, inexperienced UConn team that lacked depth came within a single basket of making it to the Huskies 5th straight national championship game. While the OT loss to a tough MS St team hurt, there was a great sense of anticipation that a loaded UConn team would roll to their 12th championship this past season. Obviously, that didn’t happen, as the Huskies once again fell in OT on a last second shot in a national semifinal to a very good ND team that had overcome no less than 4 season-ending knee injuries to key players.

There were certainly times when UConn looked every bit the juggernaut that we all expected: the 1st quarter vs Stanford in their opener, the 4th quarter comeback vs ND in December and numerous other times during the season. But frequently last season, there were times when UConn sputtered. The beautiful symphony that characterizes the Huskies offensive flow would break down far more often than Husky fans are used to seeing, resulting in rushed shots and/or turnovers. On the other end of the floor, there were occasional breakdowns in UConn’s usually tenacious defense, leading to easy scores or 2nd chance baskets by UConn opponents.

So what happened? Why didn’t a loaded UConn Husky team win it all last year? While there has been a lot of discussion on the BY about what went wrong last season, imo the real culprit was injuries. I know that may sound silly considering the injuries that ND had to overcome, but when UConn faced ND in the national semifinal, the Irish starting 5 was playing better than any other starting 5 in the nation.

UConn struggled all season long to get their starting 5 in sync due to various injuries and/or health issues. By tournament time, Gabby had fully recovered from her migraine issues and she was Gabulous once again, but Lou and Crystal, arguably the two best passers on the team, were barely practicing with the team due to ankle and shin splint problems respectively. It’s hard to overstate the impact of Lou and Crystal’s injuries to the Huskies. Not practicing regularly with the team clearly impacted the team’s execution and timing in games. This was particularly an issue with Z and the other bench players who never learned to fully play off Lou & Crystal.

The injuries also impacted Lou and Crystal’s jump shots. While Lou was deadly with her easy catch and shoot motion from the arc, her jump shot from the foul line, where she needs to elevate more, was not nearly as effective as two years ago. Whether that was due to the restrictive brace she wore, a fear of landing on someone’s foot, or the inevitable pain that Lou might have felt when she landed, Lou’s foul line jumper was not “money in the bank” last season. As for Crystal, given her 5’6” height, she relies on her explosive jump shot. At the start of the season, it appeared that she would never miss. But once her shin splint problems kicked in, Crystal was an inconsistent shooter. Whether that was due to her minutes being limited in practice and games, or the fact that every time she took a jump shot, the landing must have been painful, she wasn’t the same as earlier in the season.

Finally, Lou and Crystal’s injuries had to impact their footwork and movement on defense. Lou played most of the season with a restrictive ankle brace that limited her movement. For Crystal, there had to be discomfort in trying to move laterally with painful shin splints. Add in the lack of practice time with teammates and the result is a few more defensive breakdowns per game.

So think about it: Lou or Crystal hit one or two more jump shots per game, or execute one more pick and roll with Z or MW, or make one more perfect switch on defense to force a TO. For a team as talented as UConn, that probably earns the Huskies a 12th banner.

UConn will not be the favorite this coming season as they were last season. ND, Baylor, Louisville, Oregon and perhaps other teams will all be in the hunt for a national championship. But I tell you what. Give me a healthy Lou and Crystal, along with Pheesa, MW, some help from a few returning reserves, two super-talented freshmen and the greatest coach in the history of WBB and I got to say that I like the Huskies chances.

You present a cogent argument and, as much as I like to stay away from "what ifs", I would like to offer an alternative perspective on the last two years. To me, the point guard position is the focus of the problems experienced in the two semi-finals. And because I think Crystal will fill the bill admirably, I am quietly optimistic that UConn will return to the championship game and prevail.

IMHO, two years ago, Saniya Chong was a competent point guard but a secondary figure to the four other players. She tried to take charge in the Semis at the end but it should never have come down to that last shot. And in this year's Semis, Crystal was also a secondary figure, albeit held in more stead than Saniya, and hobbled. And often, it seemed like she and Azura were playing a different style of game than the four other players. The fourth period against ND at the XL Center was a great display of that style.

So, as much as I enjoyed watching Gabby and Kia, it may be that this year's team will have addition by subtraction. For the first time in three years, UConn will have an established point guard which has been their MO for most of their championships. I expect to Lou and Pheese to prosper under this adjustment but I imagine that their roles will have change some to accommodate Crystal's style for the team to win out.

Notre Dame experienced a similar difficulty for the previous two years before last. Linday Allen and Brianna Turner appeared to be playing a different style of basketball that than the wing players. This past year, the wings took over the team and the styles seemed to mesh, especially at the end. I give MM credit for doing a John Wooden: Wooden won his first championships with fast, small teams but when Lew Alcindor signed up, he changed his entire offense to play to his big man's strengths.

So, I am with you, OldDude. "Give me a healthy Lou and Crystal, along with Pheesa, MW, some help from a few returning reserves, two super-talented freshmen and the greatest coach in the history of WBB and I got to say that I like the Huskies chances."

 

[oldude]

entirely from the bolded parts of your previous post-see below.

You must have a lot of time on your hands. I think we’ve beaten this thread to death. For what it’s worth, FanFromMaine picked up the closing argument from my OP, that UConn with a healthy Lou & Crystal have an excellent opportunity to win #12 this season. Let’s all focus on that.