The expanded College Football Playoff off to a rough start

[Purple Stein]

If you look at the round of 16 in the FCS going back to Covid, home teams have gone 32-2. The only two losses:

North Dakota State 35 6. Montana State 34 (2023)
South Dakota State 24 4. Sacramento State 19 (2022)

The only two teams to have won road matchups have been absolute blue blood programs who know how to win high stakes games (and still won in close, close matchups).

Winning on the road in college football in December is not trivial. Home field advantage in theses playoffs is massive, and when combined with the fact that you have top-tier teams playing borderline top 15 teams, you get mismatches.

Keep home field, fix the seeding, and you might see an upset 5% of the time.

 

[DoctorWho85]

And really, who cares if it balances out?? Does that make it more legitimate? Was the NCAA Tourney last year illegitimate because UConn won every game by double digits??

Sometimes, you just can't match up well against the team that's across from you. At least 12 teams get to try this year instead of 4, which at least helps somewhat in fighting against the "popularity contest" picks. And I'm glad about that, as evidenced by Tennessee's performance...

For sure, but for the most part the BBall tourney is usually very competetive. It's not our fault the UConn was above the rest haha. But in football it will slowly become more balanced. Parity is already starting the show with NIL money. You don't see Alabama, Texas, OSU and Michigan hording all the talent anymore. Add the portal to that and any team with the right coach has a shot.

 

[LBird33]

People are going to complain but in the end it will still be SEC vs B1G and all will be right with the CFB world.....so glad we have a playoff for the same old, same old.

The issue isn't the format or anything like that. The issue is that the SEC/B1G is so far ahead of the other conferences that it truly is a P2 and they just invite a few conference friends to play. Boise, ASU, and probably ND will be gone after this weekend. All that's left are P2 schools. Not just are they P2 schools, they are the same ones we usually have.

Plus the cartel does everything it can to stack the deck to prevent any up and coming schools to become as competitive

 

[LBird33]

For sure, but for the most part the BBall tourney is usually very competetive. It's not our fault the UConn was above the rest haha. But in football it will slowly become more balanced. Parity is already starting the show with NIL money. You don't see Alabama, Texas, OSU and Michigan hording all the talent anymore. Add the portal to that and any team with the right coach has a shot.

Football cartel will do everything it can to inhibit parity. It doesn’t want competition. $$$$$$

 

[Vowelguy]

For those claiming it's the same old schools:

In the 10-year CFP era of 4 teams, there were 8 schools that made the tourney more than 1 x.

• Bama (3 NC), Michigan (1), Oklahoma Washington did not make the tourney
• Clemson (2) is out
• leaving OhioSt (1 NC), Georgia (2), and ND (0).

• Oregon (0) & Texas (0) have been there once before
• ASU, Boise, PennSt are newbies

Seems like some new blood to me

 

[Alum86]

Blow outs? The home field advantage had a lot to do with the results - a lot.

Agree. The Vols had beaucoup fans at the Shoe. They broke out their winter orange hoodies and coats. It was impressive, but still it was cold and Tennessee got their a… handed to them.

 

[HCCForever]

It's a familiar cast of characters in the AP and Coaches polls from the 70s, 80s as it is today save for the emergence of an Oregon, Boise State...

one notable absence is Nebraska. They had good teams in the 70s and 80s. and 90s. I still don't think of them of being in the Big10. But they are returning to a bowl for the first time since 2016.

 

[Husky25]

I disagree with the thread title.

I'm not crazy about how they manipulated the seeds, but I think the first round played out exactly as the Committee intended. No way AP#12 ASU or #9 Boise should have byes.

On the other hand, they make for better storylines and provide real chances for both betting and seed upsets in the second round. Boise is an 11 dog as the 3 seed and Texas is giving 4 seed ASU 13.5 points. Finally, the expanded playoff is doing what it is meant to do, by including more teams and pushing the bubble further down the ranks. Seeds 9-12 losing, diminishes any claim from the outside teams looking in.

There was a lot of coverage of whether the Alabama should have gotten in over SMU, but truthfully, I think only Miami, as the only 2 loss team in the top 16 to be left out, has a gripe.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

one notable absence is Nebraska. They had good teams in the 70s and 80s. and 90s. I still don't think of them of being in the Big10. But they are returning to a bowl for the first time since 2016.

Yeah forgot to mention those types. West Virginia lost some CFB shine too from Neyland, Rich Rod years and VaTech after Beamer.

 

[UConnDan97]

For sure, but for the most part the BBall tourney is usually very competetive. It's not our fault the UConn was above the rest haha. But in football it will slowly become more balanced. Parity is already starting the show with NIL money. You don't see Alabama, Texas, OSU and Michigan hording all the talent anymore. Add the portal to that and any team with the right coach has a shot.

The basketball tourney is almost NEVER balanced in the first round. I could take my bracket and expect 85% win percentage in the first round, most of which are blow outs.

Everyone is hoping for a good 8-9 game or trying to figure out which of the four 12-seeds will be the magic one to beat the #5. Similarly, this was the first round, and most games were blowouts. The only one that was predicted to be close was also a blowout in Ohio...

 

[SubbaBub]

This women's volleyball final is waaaaaay more entertaining than any of the CFP games thus far (or any of the NFL games, except maybe Eagles/Commanders).

I always thought eight teams would've been fair and representative, even allowing for the one G5 slot.

8 teams doesn't work for the BCS bowls that own the playoff. None of them wanted a 1 vs 8 game where the 8 was a G5 team. The point of 12 was to force any blowouts to the campus site (and more $). Mission accomplished.

They didn't fully anticipate the breakdown of the P12, B12, and ACC as competitive leagues but you can't legitimately call it s playoff if you just pick 4/5 schools each from the SEC/B1G. Why bother, just go back to the polls (Herbie missed hard on this with his rant this week).

Seeding 1-12 has the same problem. You force conference champions to the bottom of the bracket to face the top 3 teams while SEC 3s and 4s face each other.

The committee got the 12 right on. 100%. I'm fine with the seeds. Go beat the team in your bracket. Yes on paper, Oregon got screwed a bit because OSU can't beat Michigan. The alternative would have been Notre Dame as the 8 or OSU as the 7, not much of a drop if you believe the hype.

As played, Oregon plays a team it already beat, GA plays ND who lost to an FCS, PSU plays A good Boise team that would have still earned a home game with seeding and AZ state play Texas, which probably happens anyway given the results from the weekend.

 

[Husky25]

The basketball tourney is almost NEVER balanced in the first round. I could take my bracket and expect 85% win percentage in the first round, most of which are blow outs.

Everyone is hoping for a good 8-9 game or trying to figure out which of the four 12-seeds will be the magic one to beat the #5. Similarly, this was the first round, and most games were blowouts. The only one that was predicted to be close was also a blowout in Ohio...

This goes largely unnoticed because there are 4-5 games going on in any given window/crossover. So if the game one is watching turns into a blow-out they have the ability to watch a more exciting matchup.

Playoff football games are standalone.

 

[TheDrifter75]

8 teams doesn't work for the BCS bowls that own the playoff. None of them wanted a 1 vs 8 game where the 8 was a G5 team. The point of 12 was to force any blowouts to the campus site (and more $). Mission accomplished.

They didn't fully anticipate the breakdown of the P12, B12, and ACC as competitive leagues but you can't legitimately call it s playoff if you just pick 4/5 schools each from the SEC/B1G. Why bother, just go back to the polls (Herbie missed hard on this with his rant this week).

Seeding 1-12 has the same problem. You force conference champions to the bottom of the bracket to face the top 3 teams while SEC 3s and 4s face each other.

The committee got the 12 right on. 100%. I'm fine with the seeds. Go beat the team in your bracket. Yes on paper, Oregon got screwed a bit because OSU can't beat Michigan. The alternative would have been Notre Dame as the 8 or OSU as the 7, not much of a drop if you believe the hype.

As played, Oregon plays a team it already beat, GA plays ND who lost to an FCS, PSU plays A good Boise team that would have still earned a home game with seeding and AZ state play Texas, which probably happens anyway given the results from the weekend.

Maybe it's tongue in cheek and I didn't catch it but ND did not lose to an FCS.

 

[SubbaBub]

Maybe it's tongue in cheek and I didn't catch it but ND did not lose to an FCS.

For the purposes of this discussion, NIU is FCS in the same way that UConn losing to Buffalo is FCS bad.

ND also had an Indiana like SOS, no the service academies are not quality wins. Army's best win is Navy, which didn't count in the selection process. Army's next best win is probably Tulane. ND's best non-academy win is the 8th place Texas A&M.

There are not 8 let alone 12 title contenders. There are anywhere from 1-5 in any given year. The 12 team format assures we don't miss any of the 5 and that the title isn't decided solely by the NCG opponent selection being a dud.

 

[Purple Stein]

For sure, but for the most part the BBall tourney is usually very competetive. It's not our fault the UConn was above the rest haha. But in football it will slowly become more balanced. Parity is already starting the show with NIL money. You don't see Alabama, Texas, OSU and Michigan hording all the talent anymore. Add the portal to that and any team with the right coach has a shot.

A five star rb just transferred from Alabama to Michigan. I blame you, Doctor Who!

 

[DoctorWho85]

A five star rb just transferred from Alabama to Michigan. I blame you, Doctor Who!

I'll will take that blame

I still stand by what I said. Things are starting to balance out. We are seeing much more parity in college football and I think 24 is still the ideal number like in FCS.

 

[DoctorWho85]

GA is without its QB. ND could win.
And PennSt can easily choke against Boise.
An ND/Boise match to get to the final is doable.

Man I hope Boise wins the whole thing. We will see the playoffs expand to 16 or 24 within a year or two so SEC and B1G can stack the field.

 

[storrsroars]

Man I hope Boise wins the whole thing.

27 years without a losing season... they're due!

 

[DoctorWho85]

27 years without a losing season... they're due!

The SEC and B1G heads would explode. It would be so freaking fun to watch them female dog and moan about how they didn't deserve to be there and SOS. SOS is the absolute dumbest criteria to select teams. Sure it could help with seeding, but no was a 9-3 Alabama should be in over 11-1 Boise, 11-1 Indiana or even Clemson who won the ACC.

 

[CJasmer]

The SEC and B1G heads would explode. It would be so freaking fun to watch them female dog and moan about how they didn't deserve to be there and SOS. SOS is the absolute dumbest criteria to select teams. Sure it could help with seeding, but no was a 9-3 Alabama should be in over 11-1 Boise, 11-1 Indiana or even Clemson who won the ACC.

Clemson has some good players especially on the defensive line. Clemson has been inconsistent this year but still the best team in the ACC. In all likelihood you will be seeing a SEC/BIG10 final four. But the reality is P2 has one the football championship for the last 30 years except for Clemson(1 year), Miami (1year), and FSU (1 year).

 

[Hogoff]

Clemson has some good players especially on the defensive line. Clemson has been inconsistent this year but still the best team in the ACC. In all likelihood you will be seeing a SEC/BIG10 final four. But the reality is P2 has one the football championship for the last 30 years except for Clemson(1 year), Miami (1year), and FSU (1 year).

In the ACC,
Clemson has 2, FSU has 2, and Miami has national championships in the last 30 years.

In the BIG,
Michigan has one and Ohio state has two.

 

[CJasmer]

In the ACC,
Clemson has 2, FSU has 2, and Miami has national championships in the last 30 years.

In the BIG,
Michigan has one and Ohio state has two.

The BIG now includes USC. Outside the current P2 only championship have been won only by FSU, Miami and Clemson. Only Clemson has had any success in the last 10 years. Obviously the SEC has had the most success especially over last 20 years.

 

[Vowelguy]

The BIG now includes USC. Outside the current P2 only championship have been won only by FSU, Miami and Clemson. Only Clemson has had any success in the last 10 years. Obviously the SEC has had the most success especially over last 20 years.

And Miami’s title came when they were in the big East

Texas and Oklahoma won as part of the big12

 

[traitor71]

Clemson has some good players especially on the defensive line. Clemson has been inconsistent this year but still the best team in the ACC. In all likelihood you will be seeing a SEC/BIG10 final four. But the reality is P2 has one the football championship for the last 30 years except for Clemson(1 year), Miami (1year), and FSU (1 year).

I'm not so sure about Clemson being the best team in the ACC. They got a chance to win in a one game championship, but they really, like really had the favorable schedule this year. They didn't have to play Miami, Syracuse, GA Tech, or even Duke, and they didn't have to go across the country to the west coast. I credit them for winning that game and getting in, but they definitely had a very favorable path. Other than that, it seems hard to disagree that the winner is going to come from one of two leagues for the forseeable future.

 

[CJasmer]

I'm not so sure about Clemson being the best team in the ACC. They got a chance to win in a one game championship, but they really, like really had the favorable schedule this year. They didn't have to play Miami, Syracuse, GA Tech, or even Duke, and they didn't have to go across the country to the west coast. I credit them for winning that game and getting in, but they definitely had a very favorable path. Other than that, it seems hard to disagree that the winner is going to come from one of two leagues for the forseeable future.

Yeah powerhouse teams like Duke…. Duke did not beat anybody this year. Unless Ole Miss players decide to opt out of the bowl game this will be a blow out.

 

[UCFBfan]

Quick question, how far out do basketball teams make schedules? I ask because I read an article suggesting that the CFB use a similar system as bball to determine playoff teams. Use Quad wins. I ask about how far out because these football schedules are usually made years in advance. You can't help it if you scheduled Michigan St three years out thinking it'd be a quality win only to have them become a dumpster fire for a few seasons (not saying they are). It also is tough because there are fewer games. However, I thought it was an interesting concept.

 

[giddyup]

The issue in a nutshell is reasonable parity so all teams have a chance to compete through fair access to talent on a level playing field. The system rewards entrenched big money systems and the rules keep changing to ensure they are protected.

 

[CJasmer]

The issue in a nutshell is reasonable parity so all teams have a chance to compete through fair access to talent on a level playing field. The system rewards entrenched big money systems and the rules keep changing to ensure they are protected.

The problem is you need collective agreements with the players- make them employees. You cannot limit a players earning ability by just having NCAA pass a rule. It will be overruled by the court for antitrust reasons. The NCAA caused this issue for not paying football players at the highest level. The players whose career could end with getting an injury were treated as serfs at the Football power schools.

 

[traitor71]

Yeah powerhouse teams like Duke…. Duke did not beat anybody this year. Unless Ole Miss players decide to opt out of the bowl game this will be a blow out.

I'm just pointing out that Clemson, who won that league, really benefited from the schedule. As these leagues expand, we are going to see more situations where teams can benefit from an unbalanced schedule. Indiana benefited from that as well, but they have the benefit of playing in the BIG, so it looks a little better.

 

[CJasmer]

I'm just pointing out that Clemson, who won that league, really benefited from the schedule. As these leagues expand, we are going to see more situations where teams can benefit from an unbalanced schedule. Indiana benefited from that as well, but they have the benefit of playing in the BIG, so it looks a little better.

SOS should be considered for CFP. The problem is G5 and lower level P4 leagues would be disadvantaged.