The end game

[nelsonmuntz]

This is unlike any round of expansion that has happened to date, and feels like the end game of what started when the SWC was blown up by the Big 8 16 years ago. Prior to that point, we had conference stability for years. There were teams moving around, but the 6 major conferences, and then 7 when the Big East was formed, stayed pretty stable into the 90's. Since 1996, the Big East has been shredded through 2 rounds of expansion, and is about to be finished off. Now the ACC is in jeopardy.

The smaller conferences have not been immune, with the WAC eliminated and the MWC in a fair amount of trouble depending on what happens. CUSA, which was on the verge of being a major in 2002, is now, with a couple of exeptions, a collection of Sun Belt, recent upgrades and schools that play in front of 10k fans.

This stopped being about schools or academics or rivalries a long time ago, and now is simply a battle between corporations, with conference survival dependent on how aggressive that conference's sugar daddy is willing to be to keep the conference viable. The ACC is on the receiving end of this now, after a decade of being ESPN's favorite in its battles with the Big East. ESPN, which called the shots for so long, may now have been outfoxed by Fox. Fox controls the Big 10, Pac 12 and half the Big 12. ESPN has a few more years of a few Pac 12 and Big 10 games, part of the Big 12, and most of the SEC. It will likely even lose the Big East going forward.

There are too many moving parts for even the most inside insider to know what is going to happen. Is Fox/Big 10 going to go for the kill on the ACC and the northeast, destroying ESPN's hammerlock on the region and completely changing the dynamics of college sports? Is ESPN going to come to the ACC's rescue and save the remaining OBE schools? Will NBC throw a huge number on the table just to take whatever it can get and be in the game, or will it walk away from the sport altogether.

I don't think this will end well, for UConn or college athletics.

 

[ZooCougar]

I blame Bush.

 

[RMoore1999]

This is unlike any round of expansion that has happened to date, and feels like the end game of what started when the SWC was blown up by the Big 8 16 years ago. Prior to that point, we had conference stability for years. There were teams moving around, but the 6 major conferences, and then 7 when the Big East was formed, stayed pretty stable into the 90's. Since 1996, the Big East has been shredded through 2 rounds of expansion, and is about to be finished off. Now the ACC is in jeopardy.

The smaller conferences have not been immune, with the WAC eliminated and the MWC in a fair amount of trouble depending on what happens. CUSA, which was on the verge of being a major in 2002, is now, with a couple of exeptions, a collection of Sun Belt, recent upgrades and schools that play in front of 10k fans.

This stopped being about schools or academics or rivalries a long time ago, and now is simply a battle between corporations, with conference survival dependent on how aggressive that conference's sugar daddy is willing to be to keep the conference viable. The ACC is on the receiving end of this now, after a decade of being ESPN's favorite in its battles with the Big East. ESPN, which called the shots for so long, may now have been outfoxed by Fox. Fox controls the Big 10, Pac 12 and half the Big 12. ESPN has a few more years of a few Pac 12 and Big 10 games, part of the Big 12, and most of the SEC. It will likely even lose the Big East going forward.

There are too many moving parts for even the most inside insider to know what is going to happen. Is Fox/Big 10 going to go for the kill on the ACC and the northeast, destroying ESPN's hammerlock on the region and completely changing the dynamics of college sports? Is ESPN going to come to the ACC's rescue and save the remaining OBE schools? Will NBC throw a huge number on the table just to take whatever it can get and be in the game, or will it walk away from the sport altogether.

I don't think this will end well, for UConn or college athletics.

Actually, this reminds me of only a couple years back when Texas/OU were a "lock" to the Pac, in terms of realignment fallout.

If ESPN or ND determines it must have a viable eastern conference, the ACC will survive and UConn will be fine. If not, well.....

At this point, the primary determining factor will be for ACC tv deal to approximate the B12's. FLST/VTCH will then stay (even with UConn added), and the public ivy's will be less incentivized to chase B1G.

As Whaler alluded to earlier, the nbc talk remains irrelevant. There is no varsity game for them to get into. Sure, they could add be leftovers/cusa to their current ivy/mwc showings, but who cares.

 

[Nostical]

I blame Bush.

He's Palatine now.

 

[NutmegState]

The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that the ACC adds whoever it adds, and ESPN ponies up to keep their baby happy.

 

[metsfan2323]

\

I don't think this will end well, for UConn

Why?

Worst case it seems likely that we end up in a conference similar to what we have been in for the last 9 years plus a few more teams like Duke, Wake, Miami and hopefully BC.

Better then average chance this ends with an improvement for UCONN.

 

[husky91]

That's a likely case. A worst case is that ACC stays largely in tact and doesn't add us and a couple teams leave for B12 and UConn plays in an avg hoops and fball league.

Why?

Worst case it seems likely that we end up in a conference similar to what we have been in for the last 9 years plus a few more teams like Duke, Wake, Miami and hopefully BC.

Better then average chance this ends with an improvement for UCONN.

 

[metsfan2323]

That's a likely case. A worst case is that ACC stays largely in tact and doesn't add us and a couple teams leave for B12 and UConn plays in an avg hoops and fball league.

Well all indications are that 16 members is the number to shoot for. If true the worst case is we end up in the 5th best football conference with an Orange bowl tie in. I'll sign up for that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

UConn is not a lock for the ACC, and the ACC is not a lock to survive. ESPN could decide to ink a long term deal for some number of Big 10 games, and move the teams it wants from the ACC into the Big 12, SEC and Big 10, leaving the detritus behind.

NBC only matters to the extent we need a safety net. If they walk away, UConn's athletic program could go splat.

 

[UCFBfan]

I don't understand this ESPN talk....last I checked they signed a multi-billion dollar deal with the SEC, have a contract with the B1G, and still carry Big-12 and Pac-12 games. I know that they signed a big deal with the ACC but it's not different than any other contract. The only other network that carries the SEC is CBS and that's for one game a week. I know that they want to start their own network ala BTN, but ESPN still owns a large part of that contract.I don't see this as a gigantice blow to ESPN if the ACC weakens. Will it hurt a bit, sure, but it won't be the be all end all.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

ESPN may decide the SEC and some of the big 12 is all it needs. I kind of doubt it, because ESPN has two networks plus ABC to fill, and SEC basketball sucks outside Florida and Kentucky. My point is, there are a lot of moving parts.

 

[RMoore1999]

I don't understand this ESPN talk....last I checked they signed a multi-billion dollar deal with the SEC, have a contract with the B1G, and still carry Big-12 and Pac-12 games. I know that they signed a big deal with the ACC but it's not different than any other contract. The only other network that carries the SEC is CBS and that's for one game a week. I know that they want to start their own network ala BTN, but ESPN still owns a large part of that contract.I don't see this as a gigantice blow to ESPN if the ACC weakens. Will it hurt a bit, sure, but it won't be the be all end all.

Espn actually does care about basketball. They need jan/feb programming.

 

[UCFBfan]

Espn actually does care about basketball. They need jan/feb programming.

I get that but there will still be good teams left out if the ACC explodes. Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Wake those schools aren't going anywhere. Add them with the rest of the non-FB BE schools and it's a solid bball conference. Not a situation I want to even consider but they could still get their basketball fix. None of the supposed defecting ACC teams carry a lot of bball weight outside of UNC

 

[metsfan2323]

the ACC is not a lock to survive.

The ACC will survive in some form and we will be part of it....and it will be a big improvement for football and basketball. It's not difficult to put together a solid 12 football team ACC (post big raid) and the ACC can even go to 16 basketball schools by adding Gtown, Nova, St John's and keeping ND. That will be a fun league to be in.

The worst case scenario for UCONN is expansion stopping right now and the ACC adding Louisville. IF that is "The End Game" that will suck for us. Neither one seems likely.

 

[mavblues]

Well all indications are that 16 members is the number to shoot for. If true the worst case is we end up in the 5th best football conference with an Orange bowl tie in. I'll sign up for that.

That is certainly not the worst case scenario. If you don't see that by now, I can't help you.

BTW, I'm not a doom and gloomer, either - I do think we'll eventually land someplace better. But to say there's no plausible scenario that's worse than "ending up in the 5th best football conference" is just plain wrong.

Here's just one scenario that's worse: ACC takes Louisville and stops, and BE basketball schools break away.

 

[metsfan2323]

Here's just one scenario that's worse: ACC takes Louisville and stops, and BE basketball schools break away.

I can't see the Basketball schools severing ties with UCONN if UCONN does not have a landing place. If Louisville is chosen by the ACC the Big East should fight to survive by adding UMASS all sports and two more western schools football only. Let Boise and SDSU have their pick. UMASS for Rutgers is a favorable swap for the basketball only schools. UMASS has better basketball and provides no in state conflict with Seton Hall.

 

[MattMang23]

I can't see the Basketball schools severing ties with UCONN if UCONN does not have a landing place. If Louisville is chosen by the ACC the Big East should fight to survive by adding UMASS all sports and two more western schools football only. Let Boise and SDSU have their pick. UMASS for Rutgers is a favorable swap for the basketball only schools. UMASS has better basketball and provides no in state conflict with Seton Hall.

If we are picking teams based on appeasing Seton Hall we are in far worse trouble than I thought.

 

[mavblues]

I can't see the Basketball schools severing ties with UCONN if UCONN does not have a landing place. If Louisville is chosen by the ACC the Big East should fight to survive by adding UMASS all sports and two more western schools football only. Let Boise and SDSU have their pick. UMASS for Rutgers is a favorable swap for the basketball only schools. UMASS has better basketball and provides no in state conflict with Seton Hall.

Just because you can't see it doesn't mean it can't happen. Hell, there's already rumors to that effect floating around...

Did you see RU to the B1G?

I was addressing your comment that UConn's worst case scenario was being invited to the ACC. That's certainly not true.

 

[Stinger92860]

That is certainly not the worst case scenario. If you don't see that by now, I can't help you.

BTW, I'm not a doom and gloomer, either - I do think we'll eventually land someplace better. But to say there's no plausible scenario that's worse than "ending up in the 5th best football conference" is just plain wrong.

Here's just one scenario that's worse: ACC takes Louisville and stops, and BE basketball schools break away.

Given the worse case scenario, what would our options be? It appears we would have no choice but to go with the BE Basketball schools and go Indy in FB. What else could we do, join the MAC?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Given the worse case scenario, what would our options be? It appears we would have no choice but to go with the BE Basketball schools and go Indy in FB. What else could we do, join the MAC?

We join the Boise, Houston crew for all sports in that case. There will be an east and west division of an all sports league, and we would be in the east. It would suck, but that would be the best case in that situation.

 

[SubbaBub]

2016 Schedule:

Buffalo
Maine
UMass
Army
Navy
BYU
FIU
Syracuse
USF
Cincy
Temple
Villanova

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

 

[Mr Blueskin]

2016 Schedule:

Buffalo
Maine
UMass
Army
Navy
BYU
FIU
Syracuse
USF
Cincy
Temple
Villanova

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

Stop...I think we just lost 3,000 season ticket holders since this schedule was posted.

 

[MattMang23]

The home games are Buffalo, Maine, Army, FIU, Temple and Villanova.

 

[storrsroars]

2016 Schedule:

Buffalo Maine UMass Army Navy BYU FIU Syracuse USF Cincy Temple Villanova

I'll go with the following:
Buffalo
Navy
E.Carolina
OldDominion
USF
UCF
UAB
Memphis
Cincy
UMass (homecoming)
Temple
Notre Dame

 

[Marty Jackson]

UConn is not a lock for the ACC, and the ACC is not a lock to survive. ESPN could decide to ink a long term deal for some number of Big 10 games, and move the teams it wants from the ACC into the Big 12, SEC and Big 10, leaving the detritus behind.

NBC only matters to the extent we need a safety net. If they walk away, UConn's athletic program could go splat.

And that $17M ESPN agreed to pay to the ACC?

 

[MattMang23]

If we win nine games we might get a bowl game vs. Western Michigan.