The effect of the transfer portal on high school recruiting

[Duncan Idaho]

Haven't the scholly limits been lifted? 105 starting in June '25? other sports also?

 

[Palatine]

All I am saying is that it's mathematically impossible that the transfer portal has any impact whatsoever on the scholarship mass balance in college football. Even if the new players replacing outgoing players are not fresh from high school, they are kids who were once in high school and previously did not have an FBS scholarship. Therefore, the net opportunity for a high school senior to eventually end up on an FBS roster is utterly independent of the transfer portal.

Edit: Unless I am missing something. Which I may be, but neither @ZooCougar nor anyone else claiming that high schoolers have lost opportunities have offered what that something might be.

It's Covid. There are more senior junior and sophomore college players in the last few years than ever before. Once the last of the Covid extention players leave the system the numbers will return to normal for high school recruits.

 

[huskymedic]

Haven't the scholly limits been lifted? 105 starting in June '25? other sports also?

Football roster is capped @ 105 and schools have the option to provide all athletes up to a full scholarship.

No more 125+ rosters including walk-ons.

 

[Get a Job]

Half of players entering the portal do not find a new team. Basically puts us back in the same boat.

If that's true, that number almost certainly exceeds the number of players who would have quit before the transfer portal, which would mean the transfer portal creates more opportunities for high school recruits.

However I am highly skeptical that half of portal entrants end up not finding a roster spot.

 

[huskymedic]

If that's true, that number almost certainly exceeds the number of players who would have quit before the transfer portal, which would mean the transfer portal creates more opportunities for high school recruits.

However I am highly skeptical that half of portal entrants end up not finding a roster spot.

This is all levels I believe - not just FBS:

Transfer Portal Turbulence Is On The Rise. Are College Sports Prepared? - RealResponse

By Hannah Dewey, Director of Business Development, Collegiate Athletics at RealResponse Free agency. Endorsement deals. Trade deadlines. These hallmarks of professional sports have become untethered from the big leagues. Thanks to milestone rulings around the transfer portal and name, image and...

www.realresponse.com

-> “[In 2023] over 17,000 student-athletes that entered the transfer portal were left with no option but to never play competitively again. They know it’s a huge risk and it’s really scary to enter. But for a lot of these students, the idea of having a new opportunity and finding a new school is worth it to them,” said Cody Cater, a recent Wake Forest University graduate, former football player and entrepreneur. <-

 

[UDann]

It's no way to run a railroad. And according to our "friend" Mike Farrell, it is drastically reducing the amount of scholarship offers being made to high school seniors. Easier for most teams to recruit from the portal, especially those with deep pockets.

If you’re a superstar athlete in high school you will be fine but even players who made all conference teams seem to need an extra year. A 17 year old going against 23 year olds is not fair. As one honest college coach who was recruiting my son said… I have to take the man who has had experience vs a kid with potential.

My kid plays baseball had to send him to prep school just to give him an extra year for baseball. Didn’t need it academically.

 

[TheDrifter75]

This is all levels I believe - not just FBS:

Transfer Portal Turbulence Is On The Rise. Are College Sports Prepared? - RealResponse

By Hannah Dewey, Director of Business Development, Collegiate Athletics at RealResponse Free agency. Endorsement deals. Trade deadlines. These hallmarks of professional sports have become untethered from the big leagues. Thanks to milestone rulings around the transfer portal and name, image and...

www.realresponse.com

-> “[In 2023] over 17,000 student-athletes that entered the transfer portal were left with no option but to never play competitively again. They know it’s a huge risk and it’s really scary to enter. But for a lot of these students, the idea of having a new opportunity and finding a new school is worth it to them,” said Cody Cater, a recent Wake Forest University graduate, former football player and entrepreneur. <-

Medic, I thought in previous years you had posted the numbers of how many entered and how many found landing spots. I also thought it was broken down by division but I'm not as sure on that but I know it was broad not just for UConn

 

[huskymedic]

Medic, I thought in previous years you had posted the numbers of how many entered and how many found landing spots. I also thought it was broken down by division but I'm not as sure on that but I know it was broad not just for UConn

It’s out there… I’ll try to find it. I had stumbled on this one the other day and it was still bookmarked.

 

[uconnric]

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

Mike Farrell said it in an interview which you obviously didn't hear. He makes his living dealing with high school football players and is an expert in football recruiting. You are not, so yes I'll believe his opinion over yours.

 

[UConnJim]

You aren’t accounting for the people that normally would just quit football altogether instead of just transferring.

There is truth to this. The issue is not really the "portal", but immediate eligibility of transfers. In the old system, if a player was having academic issues and was transferring, nobody was going to take a chance on a player who had to sit out a year and that player would either go to JUCO or stop playing. Now, you can bring the kid in, have him attend summer school to improve his grades, and play.

 

[kibblesnbits]

Mike Farrell said it in an interview which you obviously didn't hear. He makes his living dealing with high school football players and is an expert in football recruiting. You are not, so yes I'll believe his opinion over yours.

Where’s the conflict? The Mike Farrell’s of the world focus their comments on the big schools of the world (more clicks). So it’s logical that he would see fewer offers at those schools to high schoolers as they replaced by players being “promoted” from schools lower in the totem pole (“Georgia State” in b-lawyers example). The high schoolers superstars will still get P4 offers. The next tiers down, that traditionally got later offers, “non-commitable offers” or just “interest” from the P4 plus a boatload of non-P4 offers will just get the latter. Hence, fewer overall offers in total. However, at some point the total number of scholarship players into the system must equal the total number going out.

 

[uconnric]

Where’s the conflict? The Mike Farrell’s of the world focus their comments on the big schools of the world (more clicks). So it’s logical that he would see fewer offers at those schools to high schoolers as they replaced by players being “promoted” from schools lower in the totem pole (“Georgia State” in b-lawyers example). The high schoolers superstars will still get P4 offers. The next tiers down, that traditionally got later offers, “non-commitable offers” or just “interest” from the P4 plus a boatload of non-P4 offers will just get the latter. Hence, fewer overall offers in total. However, at some point the total number of scholarship players into the system must equal the total number going out.

The point is there as re less scholarship offers to high school players. All of a sudden players who would get FBS offers are trying to get FCS offers. Not that hard to understand. FCS see schools are reducing freshman scholarships and all other schools are subject to the same scholarship limits resulting in an overall net reduction.

 

[kibblesnbits]

The point is there as re less scholarship offers to high school players. All of a sudden players who would get FBS offers are trying to get FCS offers. Not that hard to understand. FCS see schools are reducing freshman scholarships and all other schools are subject to the same scholarship limits resulting in an overall net reduction.

This is a pipeline system. If the total number of scholarships available (capacity of pipe) is constant from year to year, then number in must equal number out. Kids can shuffle between a scholarship at school A to one at school B, but that doesn’t change the total capacity of the system. School A will go outside the system (incoming freshman) for one more and school B will add one less. Yes, that may mean that a kid who would have gotten an offer at dream school B may have to start at “lesser school A” but it’s still a scholarship. Unless schools start decreasing their number of scholarship slots total opportunity is constant.

 

[uconnric]

This is a pipeline system. If the total number of scholarships available (capacity of pipe) is constant from year to year, then number in must equal number out. Kids can shuffle between a scholarship at school A to one at school B, but that doesn’t change the total capacity of the system. School A will go outside the system (incoming freshman) for one more and school B will add one less. Yes, that may mean that a kid who would have gotten an offer at dream school B may have to start at “lesser school A” but it’s still a scholarship. Unless schools start decreasing their number of scholarship slots total opportunity is constant.

No because teams at the we FCS level turn to D2 and D3 players to fill their rosters with kids who were non scholarship players coming out of school. Yes the total will be constant but total scholarships available to high school seniors will be reduced.

 

[Get a Job]

It's funny that @businesslawyer two-way blocks me so I can't see what he's saying, but from what I can see he's the only one who agrees with me!

 

[Duncan Idaho]

Football roster is capped @ 105 and schools have the option to provide all athletes up to a full scholarship.

No more 125+ rosters including walk-ons.

And FCS can offer partial or half scholarships.

 

[businesslawyer]

Mike Farrell said it in an interview which you obviously didn't hear. He makes his living dealing with high school football players and is an expert in football recruiting. You are not, so yes I'll believe his opinion over yours.

He does make his living doing this. Doesn’t make him not an idiot. We’ve followed his abilities on this board for 20 years. But does he speak to more people involved in football than me? Absolutely. But does that change the math?

 

[kibblesnbits]

No because teams at the we FCS level turn to D2 and D3 players to fill their rosters with kids who were non scholarship players coming out of school. Yes the total will be constant but total scholarships available to high school seniors will be reduced.

That makes no sense. Let’s suppose 5 players transfer from lower level FBS or FCS schools to an upper level FBS team. So the upper level team will bring in 5 fewer freshmen on scholarship. However, those lower level teams will replace those 5 lost scholarship players with 5 more freshmen scholarship players. Are you claiming coaches of lower-level programs will sit around in staff meetings saying “now we’re under our authorized scholarship count but we’re not going to use those slots and blame it on the portal”? Seriously?

The only ways the portal can decrease the number of freshman slots (and they will have relatively minor impact) is two-fold: (1) increased transfer liquidity may enable players that would have quit in the past after being dropped from power teams to transfer down to a lower-end scholarship program; and (2) increased liquidity enabling more stars at non-scholarship schools (e.g. Ivies) to transfer to a scholarship program. Both types of transfers occurred pre-portal, but some extra cases may come up because it is easier. They are also temporary transients as any net loss now will be offset by an increase in the open scholarship count in the next few years when they graduate. Total in must still equal total out.

 

[uconnric]

That makes no sense. Let’s suppose 5 players transfer from lower level FBS or FCS schools to an upper level FBS team. So the upper level team will bring in 5 fewer freshmen on scholarship. However, those lower level teams will replace those 5 lost scholarship players with 5 more freshmen scholarship players. Are you claiming coaches of lower-level programs will sit around in staff meetings saying “now we’re under our authorized scholarship count but we’re not going to use those slots and blame it on the portal”? Seriously?

The only ways the portal can decrease the number of freshman slots (and they will have relatively minor impact) is two-fold: (1) increased transfer liquidity may enable players that would have quit in the past after being dropped from power teams to transfer down to a lower-end scholarship program; and (2) increased liquidity enabling more stars at non-scholarship schools (e.g. Ivies) to transfer to a scholarship program. Both types of transfers occurred pre-portal, but some extra cases may come up because it is easier. They are also temporary transients as any net loss now will be offset by an increase in the open scholarship count in the next few years when they graduate. Total in must still equal total out.

The D2 and D3 players who replace the FCS players were not full ride scholarship players. The total scholarship players will be stable, but the net result is less scholarship offers to high school seniors. It's already happening. FBS schools are offering less scholarships to high school seniors.

 

[kibblesnbits]

The D2 and D3 players who replace the FCS players were not full ride scholarship players. The total scholarship players will be stable, but the net result is less scholarship offers to high school seniors. It's already happening. FBS schools are offering less scholarships to high school seniors.

I'd like to see some real evidence this is happening - D2 and D3 players moving into the full scholarship ranks in numbers significant enough to observably impact D1 high school FB recruiting. The difference between full scholarship football and partial or no-scholarship football is huge. I would just have two comments: (1) When it happens it's a good thing because it indicates that kids who were not judged as being worthy of a full scholarship out of high school are earning them on collegiate fields: and (2) It's hard to imagine that it is significant since it would require FCS coaches to ignore a pool of high quality high school players that you've identified as falling off FBS recruiting boards. If I'm the coach at Central I might pick up an occasional late bloomer from Southern, but more often than not I'm going to give priority to a higher performing high school kid who would have signed with UConn but for available D1 transfers taking the spot (schools selected for illustrative purposes only). Hell, with easy portal transfers you may even see FBS programs directing players just off their recruiting boards to friendly FCS schools in much the same way they help them get to preps or JUCOs to be available as future signees.

 

[UDann]

I'd like to see some real evidence this is happening - D2 and D3 players moving into the full scholarship ranks in numbers significant enough to observably impact D1 high school FB recruiting. The difference between full scholarship football and partial or no-scholarship football is huge. I would just have two comments: (1) When it happens it's a good thing because it indicates that kids who were not judged as being worthy of a full scholarship out of high school are earning them on collegiate fields: and (2) It's hard to imagine that it is significant since it would require FCS coaches to ignore a pool of high quality high school players that you've identified as falling off FBS recruiting boards. If I'm the coach at Central I might pick up an occasional late bloomer from Southern, but more often than not I'm going to give priority to a higher performing high school kid who would have signed with UConn but for available D1 transfers taking the spot (schools selected for illustrative purposes only). Hell, with easy portal transfers you may even see FBS programs directing players just off their recruiting boards to friendly FCS schools in much the same way they help them get to preps or JUCOs to be available as future signees.

I have seen it in the baseball side. D3 head students moving to D1. Just grateful the Covid players end this year. There are 23 year olds taking spots from 18 and 19 year olds. Been happening since they added the extra year.

 

[ZooCougar]

I'd like to see some real evidence this is happening - D2 and D3 players moving into the full scholarship ranks in numbers significant enough to observably impact D1 high school FB recruiting. The difference between full scholarship football and partial or no-scholarship football is huge. I would just have two comments: (1) When it happens it's a good thing because it indicates that kids who were not judged as being worthy of a full scholarship out of high school are earning them on collegiate fields: and (2) It's hard to imagine that it is significant since it would require FCS coaches to ignore a pool of high quality high school players that you've identified as falling off FBS recruiting boards. If I'm the coach at Central I might pick up an occasional late bloomer from Southern, but more often than not I'm going to give priority to a higher performing high school kid who would have signed with UConn but for available D1 transfers taking the spot (schools selected for illustrative purposes only). Hell, with easy portal transfers you may even see FBS programs directing players just off their recruiting boards to friendly FCS schools in much the same way they help them get to preps or JUCOs to be available as future signees.

Isn’t this exactly what UConn Baseball did?

Also have you not seen our recruiting classes the past two seasons for football? It’s light on high school recruits and heavy on transfers.

If you are trying to win now and flip your roster it’s more efficient to sign seasoned transfers instead of high school seniors.

Sure the top programs will load up on blue chips every year. But there are only so many.

High School kids are going to end up with FCS and below more and more.

 

[ZooCougar]

This should help matters LOL.

 

[kibblesnbits]

I have seen it in the baseball side. D3 head students moving to D1. Just grateful the Covid players end this year. There are 23 year olds taking spots from 18 and 19 year olds. Been happening since they added the extra year.

Understood, but baseball is a different animal. First, MLB takes much of the top tier straight out of high school. Second, the vast majority of the best college players are again draft eligible and leave after junior year. Lastly, it’s a partial scholarship sport. D1 teams get 10-12 scholarhips for the entire roster. Many kids can do as well or better with financial aid to a lower level school (athletically, not necessarily academically) as with a D1 scholarship. As a result, the gaps between D1 and D2 and between D2 and D3 are smaller. While MLB players from D2 or D3 are still unusual, they are common and the minors are littered with them. top college teams can also use them to fill in leadership gaps left by highly drafted juniors.

 

[SubbaBub]

Guys have more eligibility than before. So they occupy roster spots for longer.

The opportunities are open in FCS and lower. But for FBS outside of the top schools, places are taking less HS players because portal kids are giving them the most bang for the buck.

Also makes sense not to spend end of roster scholarships on guys who are likely to transfer out before they ever see the field.

You'd rather have 3 extra portal guys with a track record than the last 3 HS options.

Before the portal, these guys just dropped FB altogether and became regular students. Now, they can find a roster spot at another school a lot more easily and get paid to do it.