The effect of the transfer portal on high school recruiting

[uconnric]

Imagine if the NFL had no free agency restrictions and no cap.

How long would it take for it to collapse into itself like a dying star?

It's no way to run a railroad. And according to our "friend" Mike Farrell, it is drastically reducing the amount of scholarship offers being made to high school seniors. Easier for most teams to recruit from the portal, especially those with deep pockets.

 

[ZooCougar]

It's no way to run a railroad. And according to our "friend" Mike Farrell, it is drastically reducing the amount of scholarship offers being made to high school seniors. Easier for most teams to recruit from the portal, especially those with deep pockets.

Even worse when JUCO years don’t count.

 

[UConnJim]

And according to our "friend" Mike Farrell, it is drastically reducing the amount of scholarship offers being made to high school seniors. Easier for most teams to recruit from the portal, especially those with deep pockets.

This is not completely true. The top programs seem to be recruiting slightly more HS athletes as the best available athletes are generally coming out of HS. Here are the top 10 recruiting classes and the number of commits: Texas 25, Alabama 22, Georgia 28, Ohio St. 26, Oregon 20, Auburn 25, LSU 23, Texas A&M 25, Michigan 23, Florida 25. And, the COVID year has now cycled through so you won't see players that are playing 6 years.

What is happening is that some schools are taking fewer HS recruits, like UConn, and filling the roster with proven players from FCS/G5 schools or P4 backups. So, a school like UConn may have taken a borderline FBS athlete in the past and develop them, but that is not really happening as much anymore.

If you look across the football division, there are not fewer scholarships being offered, but a player may need to go FCS initially instead of FBS.

 

[ZooCougar]

This is not completely true. The top programs seem to be recruiting slightly more HS athletes as the best available athletes are generally coming out of HS. Here are the top 10 recruiting classes and the number of commits: Texas 25, Alabama 22, Georgia 28, Ohio St. 26, Oregon 20, Auburn 25, LSU 23, Texas A&M 25, Michigan 23, Florida 25. And, the COVID year has now cycled through so you won't see players that are playing 6 years.

What is happening is that some schools are taking fewer HS recruits, like UConn, and filling the roster with proven players from FCS/G5 schools or P4 backups. So, a school like UConn may have taken a borderline FBS athlete in the past and develop them, but that is not really happening as much anymore.

If you look across the football division, there are not fewer scholarships being offered, but a player may need to go FCS initially instead of FBS.

The majority of schools are taking less.

So it’s entirely true. There are less opportunities for HS players now. This isn’t debatable.

 

[Get a Job]

The majority of schools are taking less.

So it’s entirely true. There are less opportunities for HS players now. This isn’t debatable.

Correct me if I am wrong, but every year in college football (all sub-divisions) some number of players end their college careers (graduation, NFL, etc.). The only way to replace them is with recruits that aren't currently in college (high school, international, etc.). So, teams can swap existing players among themselves all they want, and it does not change the number of (mostly) high school players that will get an opportunity. Or am I missing something?

 

[businesslawyer]

The majority of schools are taking less.

So it’s entirely true. There are less opportunities for HS players now. This isn’t debatable.

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

 

[Patman]

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

I agree, what's making teams take less high schoolers are these extended careers players that are on their 6th and 7th years

 

[ZooCougar]

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

Guys have more eligibility than before. So they occupy roster spots for longer.

The opportunities are open in FCS and lower. But for FBS outside of the top schools, places are taking less HS players because portal kids are giving them the most bang for the buck.

 

[TheDrifter75]

If there are 130x100 spots per school that's a static 13000 spots available. I realize the schollies and number of fbs schools is slightly different but for simplicity sake I'm going with this. FCS juco etc makes the number of spots available even larger.

If there are 130 schools X 100 schollies that's a static 13000 spots available. At the end of every year, you subtract those who move on, either through NFL retirement etc and you fill those spots with what? Transfers are already in the 13k number, they are just switching locations. Highschool is the only place to gain replacements.

 

[ZooCougar]

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

High School Football Players Left Behind: The Growing Gaps in College Recruiting

—Left Behind — Introduction The landscape of college football recruiting has changed dramatically in recent years, leaving many high school athletes struggling to gain attention from college programs. As new trends emerge—such as the transfer portal, NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals, and...

yappi.com

 

[ZooCougar]

Opportunities for high school recruits on the decline in NCAA transfer portal era

In 2021 alone, FBS teams signed 2,215 high school seniors – about 400 fewer than in 2020 and 2019.

www.mlive.com

 

[Palatine]

I think this ends the vast majority of Covid year extensions. Once they are though the system, the number of portal players may go down and the need to fill rosters with high school players may go up. Hard to figure.

 

[Get a Job]

High School Football Players Left Behind: The Growing Gaps in College Recruiting

—Left Behind — Introduction The landscape of college football recruiting has changed dramatically in recent years, leaving many high school athletes struggling to gain attention from college programs. As new trends emerge—such as the transfer portal, NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals, and...

yappi.com

It say FBS school are taking 20% fewer high school students, but where are the other 20% coming from? FCS? Ok, are top FCS players on scholarship? If so, they will be replaced by high school students, who will get scholarships. If not, the FCS transfers who were not getting scholarships will now be getting them. In either case, kids who weren't getting scholarships will be getting them to replace the players leaving college football each year.

 

[TheDrifter75]

The COVID year throws a wrench in the numbers, this is true, but it's an aberration not a constant. Generally kids have 5 years to play 4. I know some get extensions on that but that's not the norm and accounts for a much smaller number. Adding the 1 COVID year to a 4 or 5 year career can account for close to a 20% difference in what the number of new highschoolers should be in recent years. Once those are phased out the the numbers become static again.

 

[Skiblets]

How is that possible? There are still the same number of scholarships across division 1. If Georgia State loses its ten best players, it's filling those spots from somewhere. And someone has to be filling them with high school seniors.

If you have anything that actually shows fewer high school kids entering the ranks more believable than an unsourced tweet from an idiot like Farrell, I'd love to see it.

Don’t forget 1AA kids moving up at a rate greater than previous years when it was harder to transfer. Thinks that’s the main reason there are fewer spots for HS kids. That and the occasional Covid 6 year players

 

[CL82]

High School Football Players Left Behind: The Growing Gaps in College Recruiting

—Left Behind — Introduction The landscape of college football recruiting has changed dramatically in recent years, leaving many high school athletes struggling to gain attention from college programs. As new trends emerge—such as the transfer portal, NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals, and...

yappi.com

Interesting. I wonder if the impact of de facto free agency for college players on high school recruiting will lessen over time. Right now, it may be impacted by Covid eligibility, which effectively increases the available college player pool. So maybe that 20% percent reduction in high school players getting scholarship becomes a 15 or 10% reduction eventually.

 

[Get a Job]

Interesting. I wonder if the impact of de facto free agency for college players on high school recruiting will lessen over time. Right now, it may be impacted by Covid eligibility, which effectively increases the available college player pool. So maybe that 20% percent reduction in high school players getting scholarship becomes a 15 or 10% reduction eventually.

All I am saying is that it's mathematically impossible that the transfer portal has any impact whatsoever on the scholarship mass balance in college football. Even if the new players replacing outgoing players are not fresh from high school, they are kids who were once in high school and previously did not have an FBS scholarship. Therefore, the net opportunity for a high school senior to eventually end up on an FBS roster is utterly independent of the transfer portal.

Edit: Unless I am missing something. Which I may be, but neither @ZooCougar nor anyone else claiming that high schoolers have lost opportunities have offered what that something might be.

 

[ZooCougar]

Interesting. I wonder if the impact of de facto free agency for college players on high school recruiting will lessen over time. Right now, it may be impacted by Covid eligibility, which effectively increases the available college player pool. So maybe that 20% percent reduction in high school players getting scholarship becomes a 15 or 10% reduction eventually.

Navigating New Realities in High School Football Recruiting - Signing Day Sports

The landscape of high school football recruiting is undergoing dramatic changes. With the introduction of the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) opportunities, the traditional pathways to college football are shifting, leaving athletes and their families navigating a maze of...

thewire.signingdaysports.com

 

[ZooCougar]

All I am saying is that it's mathematically impossible that the transfer portal has any impact whatsoever on the scholarship mass balance in college football. Even if the new players replacing outgoing players are not fresh from high school, they are kids who were once in high school and previously did not have an FBS scholarship. Therefore, the net opportunity for a high school senior to eventually end up on an FBS roster is utterly independent of the transfer portal.

Edit: Unless I am missing something. Which I may be, but neither @ZooCougar nor anyone else claiming that high schoolers have lost opportunities have offered what that something might be.

I’ve posted three credible articles showing how opportunities have declined.

FBS programs will be less likely to sign big freshman classes. They will let lower division programs sign those kids and then go get them in the portal.

 

[ZooCougar]

All I am saying is that it's mathematically impossible that the transfer portal has any impact whatsoever on the scholarship mass balance in college football. Even if the new players replacing outgoing players are not fresh from high school, they are kids who were once in high school and previously did not have an FBS scholarship. Therefore, the net opportunity for a high school senior to eventually end up on an FBS roster is utterly independent of the transfer portal.

Edit: Unless I am missing something. Which I may be, but neither @ZooCougar nor anyone else claiming that high schoolers have lost opportunities have offered what that something might be.

Also it’s not mathematically impossible.

Football always has had high attrition. Before the portal schools signed classes of 25. And how many would make it to Senior Day? 50%? Less?

Now instead of quitting altogether guys can just transfer.

 

[CL82]

All I am saying is that it's mathematically impossible that the transfer portal has any impact whatsoever on the scholarship mass balance in college football. Even if the new players replacing outgoing players are not fresh from high school, they are kids who were once in high school and previously did not have an FBS scholarship. Therefore, the net opportunity for a high school senior to eventually end up on an FBS roster is utterly independent of the transfer portal.

Edit: Unless I am missing something. Which I may be, but neither @ZooCougar nor anyone else claiming that high schoolers have lost opportunities have offered what that something might be.

I hear you, but I think a couple of things could be impacting that. One is Covid eligibility two is that the portal may have impacted guys who may have otherwise lost their scholarship at a major program by making it easier and more efficient to transfer to a lesser program. Same thing with unlimited transfers.

 

[ctbro1999]

I agree, what's making teams take less high schoolers are these extended careers players that are on their 6th and 7th years

Or even 9th year.

https://athlonsports.com/college/miami-fl-hurricanes/nine-year-college-football-veteran-emotional-after-final-game-of-his-career-in-orlando-florida

 

[TheDrifter75]

Also it’s not mathematically impossible.

Football always has had high attrition. Before the portal schools signed classes of 25. And how many would make it to Senior Day? 50%? Less?

Now instead of quitting altogether guys can just transfer.

Guys can just transfer instead of quit now, true, they can also enter the portal and not be picked up, whether that be voluntold or simply on their own.

 

[ZooCougar]

I hear you, but I think a couple of things could be impacting that. One is Covid eligibility two is that the portal may have impacted guys who may have otherwise lost their scholarship at a major program by making it easier and more efficient to transfer to a lesser program. Same thing with unlimited transfers.

I think this is big unaccounted for piece. Less quitters, more transfers, fewer unclaimed scholarships available at the end of the season.

Also Mora has said he is intentionally signing fewer HS recruits. How many others are doing this? It has to have some impact.

 

[businesslawyer]

High School Football Players Left Behind: The Growing Gaps in College Recruiting

—Left Behind — Introduction The landscape of college football recruiting has changed dramatically in recent years, leaving many high school athletes struggling to gain attention from college programs. As new trends emerge—such as the transfer portal, NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals, and...

yappi.com

LMAO. You know what that articles shows us -- that giving everyone an extra year of eligibility due to COVID without increasing overall scholarships available decreased the number available for incoming high school students. Well, duh.

When there are numbers to compare from pre-COVID years to years after all the COVID players are gone, wake me up. Because otherwise you're not going to convince me that the openness of the portal is going to have any effect on the number of first year players being granted scholarships in any year.