OT: The Coronavirus thread (merged thread)

[Carnac]

This is a MUST SEE video. Please take the time to watch it. It’s only 8 minutes 34 seconds in duration. It helps you understand the dynamics of the virus, and what you should do to minimize your chances of becoming infected. This should be viewed by everyone in your home. If you find this video informative, please share it with your family and friends.

“There has been a lot of talk about how you contract the coronavirus, and this video really explains it well, so we thought you'd want to watch. It's interesting. It illustrates how the virus spreads in the body, and how preventative measures keep you protected. It also vividly -- and alarmingly -- shows how the way we deal with the virus in the early stages determines how it will evolve in the later stages.

In other words, the way it begins determines the way it ends. The video doesn't sugarcoat the danger ... it explains it especially well. It also explains and illustrates how soap is the magic weapon against the coronavirus. The video makes it clearer than ever -- we (as in the world) are in this together.”

 

[eebmg]

Please take the time to watch this video. It helps you understand the dynamics of the virus, and what you can do to minimize your chances of becoming infected. Please share this with your family and friends.

There has been a lot of talk about how you contract the coronavirus, and this vid really explains it well, so we thought you'd want to watch. It's interesting. It illustrates how the virus spreads in the body, and how preventative measures keep you protected. It also vividly -- and alarmingly -- shows how the way we deal with the virus in the early stages determines how it will evolve in the later stages. In other words, the way it begins determines the way it ends. The video doesn't sugarcoat the danger ... it explains it especially well. It also explains and illustrates how soap is the magic weapon against the coronavirus. The video makes it clearer than ever -- we (as in the world) are in this together.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwio4bybgq_oAhWCt54KHUoxANgQtwIIKjAA&url=https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-survival-tips-video-animation-health/&usg=AOvVaw1I2Cwxe1F61uBF7CdDo5_u

and delivering the information with a British accent never hurts.

 

[psconn]

Good basic info. Thanks!

 

[RogueDave]

Excellent informative video! Thank you for sharing!

 

[vtcwbuff]

My coping tips - Comfort foods, wine and fat pills.

 

[tomcat]

Very nice. Hope people start paying attention. (I don't mean the good people here at the BY, who impress me as having plenty of common sense. I'm thinking of those, uh, other folks....you know who I mean....)

 

[veryolddog]

Coronavirus is like going into combat. You just don't know what bullet is going to wound or kill ya. But, you do it anyway.

 

[Carnac]

By Dr. Monika Stuczen - released 4 days ago

Another article worth your time. These are great tips!! Please read.
"You're staying home. You're washing your hands for 20 seconds at a time. You're social distancing. But you've still got to function in the world, which means you're still at risk for catching the coronavirus, aka Covid-19. Here are 12 things that put you at risk, by Dr. Monika Stuczen, a medical microbiologist who knows her stuff."

You Think It Might Not Happen to You -
"If you don't follow advice from the CDC or your local government and you think that the coronavirus won't affect you and your family, you put yourself and other people at risk. This virus can affect everyone. It is new and your body doesn't have any protection (antibodies) against it. You never know how you will react to it. You may be asymptomatic (show no symptoms but be able to spread it), you may only have mild symptoms or develop severe pneumonia. You might have it right now."

25 Coronavirus Mistakes You Don't Know You're Making

'This week, it's going to get bad': Surgeon General says people need to take coronavirus seriously

White House 'concerned' about reports from Italy and France on young people 'getting seriously ill'

14 Germy Things at Home You're Definitely Forgetting to Clean

How to boost your immune system through diet and lifestyle changes

 

[Steelerone]

By Dr. Monika Stuczen - released 4 days ago

Another article worth your time. Please read.
"You're staying home. You're washing your hands for 20 seconds at a time. You're social distancing. But you've still got to function in the world, which means you're still at risk for catching the coronavirus, aka Covid-19. Here are 12 things that put you at risk, by Dr. Monika Stuczen, a medical microbiologist who knows her stuff."

25 Coronavirus Mistakes You Don't Know You're Making

Great post Carnac. Hope all the BY's will look at it and maybe pick up one or two things they might not have been aware of before. Thank you. (fake elbow bump)

 

[AmeriConn]

Shouldn't it be COVID 19 Mistakes You Don't Know You're Doing?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Thanks for the solid PSA, Carnac!

 

[Carnac]

Shouldn't it be COVID 19 Mistakes You Don't Know You're Doing?

Perhaps. I didn't alter the title..... 100% cut & paste. The virus is commonly known by both names.

 

[AmeriConn]

Perhaps. I didn't alter the title..... 100% cut & paste. The virus is commonly known by both names.

I was just trying to be funny with the number 19 vs. 17 Mistakes. etc.

 

[Carnac]

One of the last bastions of normal American life could not escape the outbreak - grocery stores.

"For a couple of weeks now, grocery stores have been one of the only respites from cabin fever. Despite all the lock-downs and social-distancing measures across America, people still need food. In the most restrictive states, the grocery store has become about the last place you can go where life is lived more or less as it previously was. Not anymore. Now, not even grocery stores can keep up the facade of normalcy.

Grocery stores are the coronavirus tipping point

 

[Bigboote]

There are relatively few people in the grocery stores around here, maybe 5-10% of normal, and they’re keeping their distance from each other. I shopped this morning, and there were signs all over the store telling people to stay six feet apart. A half-dozen grocery workers out of 50k cases doesn’t strike me as a pattern, nor anything to starve over.

OTOH, I heard a report from Zimbabwe on the BBC this morning, and there ain’t no social distancing possible there. There are several positive tests there (and over 500 in South Africa). I’m hoping that the virus doesn’t transmit well in the heat, but it doesn’t look good.

 

[ShmiCO]

My local grocery store is problematic. If you want fresh produce you have to get there when the store opens at 7am, otherwise you're out of luck until 7am the next day. Frozen produce is 80% gone too. Yesterday I got there at opening, and the store was so crowded every cart was in use. The 6' distance was very hard to maintain.

Needless to say, I did all the personal sanitation stuff I could -- hand (and face) sanitizer as soon as I stepped pit of the store. At home showered, washed my clothes and shopping bags, even washed the produce itself with soap and water. Wiped down the counters and doorknobs with bleach. I hope it's enough.

I planted spring veggies about a week ago... in another two weeks maybe I can go to the store during the "no produce = no crowds" window.

 

[eebmg]

Very sad story about Karl Anthony Townes (KAT) who may be remembered for giving Paige her Gatorade NPOY award. His mother is in a medically induced coma and the insidious path of this disease when patients think they are doing better only to get worse is as evil as it gets. Some added prayers

Emotional KAT: Mom in coma, showed symptoms

The Wolves' Karl-Anthony Towns said Tuesday night that his mother is in a medically induced coma, and the team confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday that she has been diagnosed with COVID-19.

www.espn.com

 

[Bigboote]

My local grocery store is problematic. If you want fresh produce you have to get there when the store opens at 7am, otherwise you're out of luck until 7am the next day. Frozen produce is 80% gone too. Yesterday I got there at opening, and the store was so crowded every cart was in use. The 6' distance was very hard to maintain.

Needless to say, I did all the personal sanitation stuff I could -- hand (and face) sanitizer as soon as I stepped pit of the store. At home showered, washed my clothes and shopping bags, even washed the produce itself with soap and water. Wiped down the counters and doorknobs with bleach. I hope it's enough.

I planted spring veggies about a week ago... in another two weeks maybe I can go to the store during the "no produce = no crowds" window.

Wow, that’s the opposite of here (DC metro area). There’s fresh stuff galore. The stuff that’s often picked over (basil, cilantro, etc) is abundant. Anything that keeps is another story. I had to get sharp cheddar (as opposed to extra sharp or supremely sharp) and fluffy bread yesterday. I did score a dozen eggs, though, first time in awhile.

 

[ShmiCO]

Wow, that’s the opposite of here (DC metro area). There’s fresh stuff galore. The stuff that’s often picked over (basil, cilantro, etc) is abundant. Anything that keeps is another story. I had to get sharp cheddar (as opposed to extra sharp or supremely sharp) and fluffy bread yesterday. I did score a dozen eggs, though, first time in awhile.

I saw an article on supply chain issues and it may have contained a clue about shipping produce to Colorado. We get some produce via trucks from California (snow permitting), but apparently a lot is shipped in the holds of passenger airlines. Many fewer such flights now, and suppliers are hunting for alternatives.

 

[CL82]

There have been a few posts with "must read" articles. I am going to add this one to that list.

Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions

Basically she says that actual data does not support the very pessimistic models that are out there. Even Italy, which is indisputably a tragic loss of life on a big scale, is producing data less severe than the models predicted. Now, that doesn't mean we all should ignore social distancing, quite the opposite. With social distance, the avoidance of hoarding and profiteering, and some decent supple chain management, we can get through this thing with far less loss of life and disruption than originally predicted.

Edited to add:

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

He predicted 2.2M American deaths (I'm guess that is population x 60% infection rate x 1.4% death rate because the math works out to that number) and 1/2 million British deaths. His new British death estimate is now 20K. The equivalent reduction to US numbers would be about 88,000 deaths, which is equivalent to 30% worse than annual flu deaths.

Still a very significant number but nowhere near as bad as his original predictions. Even in NY, which is pretty much ground zero here, Faucci is cautiously predicting that they will not overrun (augmented) hospital bed/ventilator capacity. We aren't out of the woods and haven't even reached the 1/2 way point yet, but things are looking much more manageable.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

There have been a few posts with "must read" articles. I am going to add this one to that list.

Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions

Basically she says that actual data does not support the very pessimistic models that are out there. Even Italy, which is indisputably a tragic loss of life on a big scale, is producing data less severe than the models predicted. Now, that doesn't mean we all should ignore social distancing, quite the opposite. With social distance, the avoidance of hoarding and profiteering, and some decent supple chain management, we can get through this thing with far less loss of life and disruption than originally predicted.

Edited to add:

The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions

He predicted 2.2M American deaths (I'm guess that is population x 60% infection rate x 1.4% death rate because the math works out to that number) and 1/2 million British deaths. His new British death estimate is now 20K. The equivalent reduction to US numbers would be about 88,000 deaths, which is equivalent to 30% worse than annual flu deaths.

Still a very significant number but nowhere near as bad as his original predictions. Even in NY, which is pretty much ground zero here, Faucci is cautiously predicting that they will not overrun (augmented) hospital bed/ventilator capacity. We aren't out of the woods and haven't even reached the 1/2 way point yet, but things are looking much more manageable.

So little is known about this virus yet. We don't know how lethal it is. We don't know with certainty how infectious it is. Until we know those things we really can't be sure of anything other than the first and best thing for everyone in the world right now is distancing.


I'd suggest this piece breaking down the press conference mentioned above.

Birx on the Imperial College model vs. the Oxford model: "The predictions of the models don't match the reality on the ground"

hotair.com

 

[ShmiCO]

I agreed with the first part of your post and then I got to this:

The equivalent reduction to US numbers would be about 88,000 deaths, which is equivalent to 30% worse than annual flu deaths.

I just can't make the math work. As of 6 days ago, per the CDC, the 2019-2020 confirmed flu season deaths are 24,000. (Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView) -- scroll down to the bulleted list with the blue background.) 88,000 is about 3.5x that, not 1.3x. Granted the flu season isn't over yet but it typically ends within a month of now.

Fun fact: reporting flu-related deaths to the CDC is not required, so we never have confirmed diagnoses for all of them. After the flu season the CDC retroactively inflates the flu death estimate based on past experience that flu is sometimes a factor whether the listed cause of death is a condition like pneumonia or heart failure. So it reviews death certificates with certain non-flu causes listed and includes a percentage of them in the flu total.

Covid-19 is a wrench in the works for this estimation approach. Will flu claim fewer lives this year because covid-19 also affects those same vulnerable populations? Will some people who died to covid-19 still get counted as flu deaths because the cause of death might apply to either disease? Is social distancing for covid-19 also limiting the spread of flu to vulnerable populations? Who knows?! I sure don't, but I'd be extremely surprised if the flu number jumped to 67,000.

Personally I feel the comparison to flu death rates is pretty shaky -- guesswork atop guesswork -- and in that respect not too different from those early pessimistic covid-19 models. There's so much we can't know until we have a chance to look at the data after the flu season (and, I hope, covid-19 season). I prefer to focus on what we can do to save lives in the current crisis.

 

[CL82]

I agreed with the first part of your post and then I got to this:

I just can't make the math work. As of 6 days ago, per the CDC, the 2019-2020 confirmed flu season deaths are 24,000. (Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView) -- scroll down to the bulleted list with the blue background.) 88,000 is about 3.5x that, not 1.3x. Granted the flu season isn't over yet but it typically ends within a month of now.

Fun fact: reporting flu-related deaths to the CDC is not required, so we never have confirmed diagnoses for all of them. After the flu season the CDC retroactively inflates the flu death estimate based on past experience that flu is sometimes a factor whether the listed cause of death is a condition like pneumonia or heart failure. So it reviews death certificates with certain non-flu causes listed and includes a percentage of them in the flu total.

Covid-19 is a wrench in the works for this estimation approach. Will flu claim fewer lives this year because covid-19 also affects those same vulnerable populations? Will some people who died to covid-19 still get counted as flu deaths because the cause of death might apply to either disease? Is social distancing for covid-19 also limiting the spread of flu to vulnerable populations? Who knows?! I sure don't, but I'd be extremely surprised if the flu number jumped to 67,000.

Personally I feel the comparison to flu death rates is pretty shaky -- guesswork atop guesswork -- and in that respect not too different from those early pessimistic covid-19 models. There's so much we can't know until we have a chance to look at the data after the flu season (and, I hope, covid-19 season). I prefer to focus on what we can do to save lives in the current crisis.

The reason why you couldn't make the math work is I based it on @65K for the flu death number. I got that number from memory so it is likely wrong if you are seeing something else. (I just took a quick look at the CDC website and they show a range from 24K - 62K. So we are on opposite extremes of the range.)

 

[ShmiCO]

I'll be gobsmacked if it's remotely close to 65k this year. Well, factually close to 65k. I guess it's possible there's a funding incentive to cook the estimate in that direction.

24,000 -- the number of people tested and diagnosed with flu by a lab, who sadly subsequently died
Above that number, folks who died and we guess may have had flu in addition to what they actually died from

 

[Carnac]

Wow, that’s the opposite of here (DC metro area). There’s fresh stuff galore. The stuff that’s often picked over (basil, cilantro, etc) is abundant. Anything that keeps is another story. I had to get sharp cheddar (as opposed to extra sharp or supremely sharp) and fluffy bread yesterday. I did score a dozen eggs, though, first time in awhile.

Things are beginning to settle down here in So. Cal. There are still short lines to enter grocery stores/mega membership stores when they first open each morning. Nothing like the lines that wrapped around corners last week.

Depending on the store, some of them still have empty sections of shelving, but they are slowly returning to being fully stocked. The "hording" that was prevalent last week has died down. I guess everyone is stocked up. Many grocery stores are allowing seniors (65+) only to enter the store 1 hour early before the general public. Paper towels and toilet paper continue to be the hot ticket items of choice among shoppers. Being able to "wipe" remains a priority with most folks. This virus has effected every person in the USA one way or another.
Many here continue to flock to the local walking trails scattered around the south land, paying no-never mind to the social distancing advisements issued by local, state and federal health officials.

Local news casts showed people crowding there attractions like they were giving something away. I look forward to the day life as we knew it returns to normal, and college/professional sports competition resumes. It will happen, the question is when?