The coming battle for the National Championship | The Boneyard

The coming battle for the National Championship

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I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?
 
I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?
SC's only size is Okot. Big question mark there, certainly not going to be a Boston, Cardosa or Wilson.
 
I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?
It's impossible to compare their plans against each other, but it's fun to speculate. The challenge for me is that it's still the off-season. Feels like it's too early to make any predictions as to what may happen.
 
Most everyone thought SC was THE team to beat last season. Turns out maybe they were, but we did it twice at an average of over 25 PPG. Both games were essentially smackdowns. SC lost a LOT. They can be confident all they want, but we bring more and better talent back, and their portal has to account for the loss of Fulwiley.

Our portal was better in that it completely filled out our roster with AA level talent, and frankly I'm way more confident about our chances than I was at the start of the year last season.

So I'm cautiously optimistic. Bring it on. They do not have players at the level of Azzi or Sarah, and they don't have a center who can outplay Serah. They can have all the confidence they want, but unless something drastic changes, they won't beat us this season either.
 
I apologize if I'm to the left of Tony
What me worry?
Forgetaboutit!

This will be one of those years that Geno knows its in the bag
before the first practice.

A completely unstoppable offense.
And the new normal D
Count on it
 
.-.
SC’s weakness last season was having to rely on Chloe too much. They just didn’t have enough scoring punch with her on the bench — she’s too good on offense. But defense was a different story. She’s not quick enough to play the 3 against top level opponents and she’s not strong enough to play the 4. This was a really unusual situation for Dawn’s teams.

Will this situation change next season? If Joyce starts next to Ashlyn they’ll have a strong quick frontline. All the frontline scoring punch will have to come from Joyce, but that could work if Taniya more than makes up for the loss of PaoPao — and I think this is likely. This would allow Chloe to come off the bench, which may be her best role on the team since it would allow Dawn to better manage the fallout on defense.

Other than Taniya, I’m not sure any of the new faces will make much of a difference. The core of the team will still be Raven Joyce Ashlyn plus Taniya Chloe and one or another interchangeable bigs. How would UConn matchup against this core? I like the chances of a frontline made up of Sarah Serah and any number of big backups with no obvious defensive liabilities. And in the backcourt I think Azzi KK and Ash pack more offensive punch than Taniya and Raven and are at least as good on defense. Both teams have potentially great new faces, but I like the look of UConn’s more than SC’s. In particular, if Blanca turns out to be as good as we suspect, her upside will be greater than what Agot might bring. In fact, Blanca could be the matchup wild card that gives Dawn nightmares.
 
Is SoCar on our schedule this season?
I don't recall even though I have read some of the OOC Schedule threads...
 
They may not make it to the title game but you can assuredly predict that UCLA will be in the FF. In fact, I think they get there more readily than SC. Who is going to stop them in the Big 10? No one unless JuJu comes back very quickly.
 
Just an addendum to what I said above. Most of us, and especially me, are focusing our hopes on Blanca among the new kids and for good reason. But wouldn’t it be amazing if Kelis surprised us all by proving herself ready for D1 competition on day one? I mean, we have a pretty good idea what Azzi KK Ash and Kayleigh will bring. And Kelis is still a mystery, as most freshmen are before they’ve had a chance to show what they’ve got.

And in the same vein, I’m not expecting great things from Gandy. But her raw athleticism could well provoke all the front court players to up their games. If she pressures all of them to play their best in practice, that could be wonderful.
 
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I apologize if I'm to the left of Tony
What me worry?
Forgetaboutit!

This will be one of those years that Geno knows its in the bag
before the first practice.

A completely unstoppable offense.
And the new normal D
Count on it
That whole walk softly and carry a big stick thing doesn't appeal to you @msf22b I gather. I'm thinking you may be on to something.

One little thing about this year's championship game. When Dawn wasn't hopping up and down, or screaming bomb, did she call a time out? I can't remember one. Might suggest she had no answers. One commentator tried to cover for her by saying she could talk to the troops during official time out, between quarters and half time. That's certainly true, but if you are getting run over you don't wait.

What I'm saying is we got Geno and they don't.
 
I'm not trying to pick a winner, just curious about how these very different teams compare.
Fair, but we've yet to see how South Carolina will operate now without players like PaoPao, Beal, etc. Sure, they lose 3-point shooting in PaoPao, but Tessa Johnson can shoot well, Latson joined the roster and some good freshmen are coming in. Not to mention, Edwards will have a season under her belt and will get better. South Carolina hasn't been a team that relied heavily on 3-point shooting and may revert to a style of play that is dependent on their front court.

In addition, UCLA may want to enter the chat with the Betts sisters being on the same roster, Kneepens joining their roster and Legette-Walker coming back after her ACL injury. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzles these teams are going to put together.

Is UConn the pre-season favourite? No doubt. However, UConn wasn't considered the favourite at the start of last season and look what happened. Too early for me at this point.
 
Going into the season, UConn is the favorites, but I like what LSU was able to add. Throw in South Carolina. Lady Vols could make things spicy. UCLA, with a taste of the Final Four, they could make things interesting. The key for all these teams will be how they spend their summers, and which player is working on improving their game. Who steps into the leadership role on their team. Who develops that team chemistry. It is going to be another great season of WCBB!!
 
I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?

Based on paper I think UCONN looks like the team to beat, but going back the past ten years, the preseason #1 team rarely took home the trophy so nothing is guaranteed:

2024-25: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, UCONN won the title
2023-24: LSU was almost unanimously preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2022-23: South Carolina was unanimously preseason #1, LSU won the title
2021-22: South Carolina was preseason #1 and won the title
2020-21: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, Stanford won the title
2019-20: Oregon was almost unanimously preseason #1, there was no NCAA tournament but they would've entered the tournament as the #2 team.
2018-19: Notre Dame was unanimously preseason #1, Baylor won the title
2017-18: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1, Notre Dame won the title
2016-17: Notre Dame was preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2015-16: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1 and won the title


In the past 10 season, the preseason #1 team has won it all only 2 out of 10 times, and in the 8 years where there was a unanimous (or almost unanimous) #1 team preseason, that squad has only won the championship 1 time.

This past year South Carolina looked like the clear cut #1 team preseason but they lost their best rim protecter mid-year to an ACL and overall the team chemistry was never as good as it was during the 2023-24 season. As a result they got blown out in the title game after running the table the previous year. Anything can happen.



Looking at top teams though, any of South Carolina, UCLA and Texas could be major title threats:

-South Carolina upgraded from Fulwiley to Taniya Latson who is one of the best scorers in the nation and brought in quality size in Okot. They should hopefully have Ashlyn Watkins back from her ACL by mid year, and she is a game changer in the post when healthy. X-factors are Raven Johnson and 3pt shooting. They need Raven to play much better offensively than she did this past season, and as a team they need to improve their 3pt shooting. Last year they were at just 32.8% where in 2023-24 they shot 39.7%. I'd expect they'll be back in the Final Four or title game again next year.

-UCLA is stacked and my favorite to win it all if UCONN doesn't. Lauren Betts is the best post player in the country and an unstoppable force in the paint. This roster should be extra motivated next year after their embarrassing 34 point loss in the national semifinals. They'll massively upgrade their SG position by swapping Londynn Jones out and bringing in Gianna Kneepkens, plus they add in Charlisse Leger-Walker who is a potent scorer when healthy. I'm not sure who comes off the bench but look for an 8 man rotation of Lauren Betts/Gardiner/Dugalic/Sienna Betts in the post with Kiki Rice/Gabriela Jaquez/CLW/Kneepkens on the perimeter.

-Texas is going to be very good next year with a deep and talented roster returning. I can't see them winning a title unless they implement more 3pt shooting though and a better offensive system. They defend extremely well but if Madison Booker is off they're very beatable and often become stagnant offensively. They're solid across the board but I think they're a step below the top 3 teams and have the least amount of talent.


Looking at UCONN, they have the most talented roster on paper going into next year led by Strong and Fudd, and become the easy choice for #1 when you consider Serah Williams is transferring in. The biggest question mark IMO is roster management. Geno's never had a roster this deep where 14 out of the 15 players are realistically hoping to crack the rotation. Keeping that many talented players dialed in and maintaining chemistry when at least 4-5 really good players will be sitting on the bench is easier said than done. It's hard to imagine a team losing Paige Bueckers is a slam dunk to win it all but they look like the favorite on paper. Should be a fun season ahead.
 
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I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?
Well obviously, Dawn managed to come out once again with a very nice bag of goodies from the portal. However, to say that she did as well or better than us is imo a bit of a stretch. Let’s put it this way. Who was her top target in the portal? Clearly, it was Serah Williams followed by Taniya Latson and Gianna Kneepkens. She did get Latson but whiffed on the other two. While she still managed to get a big girl she desperately needed in Okot, the one she really wanted not only turned her down but went to the team that had just brutalized SC twice in the space of 6 weeks! A team that really only had one (somewhat) weak spot. Yes, you guessed it, they (UConn) needed an experienced big who could provide scoring, rebounding, and rim protection! On top of that UConn was also able to pick up the top pg (except for Miles) in the portal as well, to mix in with KK & Kelis Fisher, thus protecting themselves from having to rely on a freshman point if KK should go down.

Now clearly, Williams is substantially better than Okot and is bascally a perfect fit for UConn. Latson, on the other hand, while clearly the top scoring guard in the portal, is imo much more of a question mark in terms of how well she will fit into Dawn’s preferred style of play. I just have to wonder how she (Latson) is going to fit in an offense that some have referred to as a “guard graveyard.” When was the last time Dawn had a guard that scored 20+ ppg? I could be wrong but it’s very hard for me to see Latson being able to score/play the way she did at Fla State in that offense. Is she going to play enough minutes to maintain that level of scoring? Will she get enough shots to keep her happy on a team that has top talent right through the roster? We’ll see. Dawn’s portal haul was very good as usual, but in terms of fit and quality, I have to give the edge to Geno.

Overall, I just question whether Dawn’s portal acquisitions (given the quality and fit of UConn’s portal signings) have the ability to move the needle in SC’s direction enough to close the obvious gap demonstrated by these two recent blowouts? Now I have no doubt that next year’s matchup (if there is one) could be much closer. However, when I look at Dawn’s portal haul, it does not stand out as the clear reason for the game being closer. Rather, I attribute the potential closer result to a variety of factors. So really, the reason I see our portal as superior is specifically because the possibility of yet another blowout has not been taken off the table with Dawn’s portal signees. Latson, even assuming she is able to continue her torrid scoring, (a real stretch imo), is simply not enough to beat UConn’s guards and Okot is simply not enough to overtake UConn’s frontcourt (especially with the addition of a double double machine like Serah Williams) Imo, the fact that Kneepkens went elsewhere really damaged SC’s portal hopes (even more than losing out on Williams imo) Had Dawn been able to pair her with Latson and Tessa, that would have created a real problem.
 
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Based on paper I think UCONN looks like the team to beat, but going back the past ten years, the preseason #1 team rarely took home the trophy so nothing is guaranteed:

2024-25: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, UCONN won the title
2023-24: LSU was almost unanimously preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2022-23: South Carolina was unanimously preseason #1, LSU won the title
2021-22: South Carolina was preseason #1 and won the title
2020-21: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, Stanford won the title
2019-20: Oregon was almost unanimously preseason #1, there was no NCAA tournament but they would've entered the tournament as the #2 team.
2018-19: Notre Dame was unanimously preseason #1, Baylor won the title
2017-18: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1, Notre Dame won the title
2016-17: Notre Dame was preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2015-16: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1 and won the title


In the past 10 season, the preseason #1 team has won it all only 2 out of 10 times, and in the 8 years where there was a unanimous (or almost unanimous) #1 team preseason, that squad has only won the championship 1 time.

This past year South Carolina looked like the clear cut #1 team preseason but they lost their best rim protecter mid-year to an ACL and overall the team chemistry was never as good as it was during the 2023-24 season. As a result they got blown out in the title game after running the table the previous year. Anything can happen.



Looking at top teams though, any of South Carolina, UCLA and Texas could be major title threats:

-South Carolina upgraded from Fulwiley to Taniya Latson who is one of the best scorers in the nation and brought in quality size in Okot. They should hopefully have Ashlyn Watkins back from her ACL by mid year, and she is a game changer in the post when healthy. X-factors are Raven Johnson and 3pt shooting. They need Raven to play much better offensively than she did this past season, and as a team they need to improve their 3pt shooting. Last year they were at just 32.8% where in 2023-24 they shot 39.7%. I'd expect they'll be back in the Final Four or title game again next year.

-UCLA is stacked and my favorite to win it all if UCONN doesn't. Lauren Betts is the best post player in the country and an unstoppable force in the paint. This roster should be extra motivated next year after their embarrassing 34 point loss in the national semifinals. They'll massively upgrade their SG position by swapping Londynn Jones out and bringing in Gianna Kneepkens, plus they add in Charlisse Leger-Walker who is a potent scorer when healthy. I'm not sure who comes off the bench but look for an 8 man rotation of Lauren Betts/Gardiner/Dugalic/Sienna Betts in the post with Kiki Rice/Gabriela Jaquez/CLW/Kneepkens on the perimeter.

-Texas is going to be very good next year with a deep and talented roster returning. I can't see them winning a title unless they implement more 3pt shooting though and a better offensive system. They defend extremely well but if Madison Booker is off they're very beatable and often become stagnant offensively. They're solid across the board but I think they're a step below the top 3 teams and have the least amount of talent.


Looking at UCONN, they have the most talented roster on paper going into next year led by Strong and Fudd, and become the easy choice for #1 when you consider Serah Williams is transferring in. The biggest question mark IMO is roster management. Geno's never had a roster this deep where 14 out of the 15 players are realistically hoping to crack the rotation. Keeping that many talented players dialed in and maintaining chemistry when at least 4-5 really good players will be sitting on the bench is easier said than done. It's hard to imagine a team losing Paige Bueckers is a slam dunk to win it all but they look like the favorite on paper. Should be a fun season ahead.
While I normally not a big fan of lengthy posts, this shows great insight and knowledge of what top teams are doing. Personally, don't agree with some of the negatives others are posting about SC and UCLA. As BBallnut90 noted, both have strong, well-balanced 8+ player lineups.
 
Dawn is an outstanding recruiter whose teams are big, strong and athletic, play tough defense and will crash the boards in waves. Next season will be no different. But SC’s Achilles heal has always been offensive flow and shooting the basketball from the perimeter. The Gamecocks want to force the game into a battle in a phone booth. That strategy will beat just about everyone SC plays and probably lead to another SEC championship.

UConn is Dawn & SC’s kryptonite. The Huskies spread the floor, play up tempo and beat teams playing a beautiful brand of basketball that no other team can play. While Paige has moved on to the W, Geno will have even more options when he faces SC than he had this past season when he laid a beat down on the Gamecocks twice.

Unfortunately, I am sorry to say that if and when UConn & SC meet this coming season we are likely to see more F-bombs coming from Dawn as UConn once again frustrates their efforts to win another national championship. ;)
 
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I apologize if I'm to the left of Tony
What me worry?
Forgetaboutit!

This will be one of those years that Geno knows its in the bag
before the first practice.

A completely unstoppable offense.
And the new normal D
Count on it
Season 8 Episode 22 GIF by THE NEXT STEP
 
.-.
Well obviously, Dawn managed to come out once again with a very nice bag of goodies from the portal. However, to say that she did as well or better than us is imo a bit of a stretch. Let’s put it this way. Who was her top target in the portal? Clearly, it was Serah Williams followed by Taniya Latson and Gianna Kneepkens. She did get Latson but whiffed on the other two. While she still managed to get a big girl she desperately needed in Okot, the one she really wanted not only turned her down but went to the team that had just brutalized SC twice in the space of 6 weeks! A team that really only had one (somewhat) weak spot. Yes, you guessed it, they (UConn) needed an experienced big who could provide scoring, rebounding, and rim protection! On top of that UConn was also able to pick up the top pg (except for Miles) in the portal as well, to mix in with KK & Kelis Fisher, thus protecting themselves from having to rely on a freshman point if KK should go down.

Now clearly, Williams is substantially better than Okot and is bascally a perfect fit for UConn. Latson, on the other hand, while clearly the top scoring guard in the portal, is imo much more of a question mark in terms of how well she will fit into Dawn’s preferred style of play. I just have to wonder how she (Latson) is going to fit in an offense that some have referred to as a “guard graveyard.” When was the last time Dawn had a guard that scored 20+ ppg? I could be wrong but it’s very hard for me to see Latson being able to score/play the way she did at Fla State in that offense. Is she going to play enough minutes to maintain that level of scoring? Will she get enough shots to keep her happy on a team that has top talent right through the roster? We’ll see. Dawn’s portal haul was very good as usual, but in terms of fit and quality, I have to give the edge to Geno.

Overall, I just question whether Dawn’s portal acquisitions (given the quality and fit of UConn’s portal signings) have the ability to move the needle in SC’s direction enough to close the obvious gap demonstrated by these two recent blowouts? Now I have no doubt that next year’s matchup (if there is one) could be much closer. However, when I look at Dawn’s portal haul, it does not stand out as the clear reason for the game being closer. Rather, I attribute the potential closer result to a variety of factors. So really, the reason I see our portal as superior is specifically because the possibility of yet another blowout has not been taken off the table with Dawn’s portal signees. Latson, even assuming she is able to continue her torrid scoring, (a real stretch imo), is simply not enough to beat UConn’s guards and Okot is simply not enough to overtake UConn’s frontcourt (especially with the addition of a double double machine like Serah Williams) Imo, the fact that Kneepkens went elsewhere really damaged SC’s portal hopes (even more than losing out on Williams imo) Had Dawn been able to pair her with Latson and Tessa, that would have created a real problem.
I saw no public indication of heavy SC recruiting. There may likely have been a call to gauge a level of interest on Williams' part but no indication that Williams turned Staley down.
 
I saw no public indication of heavy SC recruiting. There may likely have been a call to gauge a level of interest on Williams' part but no indication that Williams turned Staley down.
Wasn’t she “do not contact “ in the portal?. I nave seen nothing about ANY contact between her and SCAR. I have no doubt that Dawn would have been interested but I think it was UConn all the way before she even filed her transfer papers.
 
Wasn’t she “do not contact “ in the portal?. I nave seen nothing about ANY contact between her and SCAR. I have no doubt that Dawn would have been interested but I think it was UConn all the way before she even filed her transfer papers.
Serah was a “do not contact.” Fairly early on her listed schools emerged: LSU, UNC & UConn.
 
Dawn is an outstanding recruiter whose teams are big, strong and athletic, play tough defense and will crash the boards in waves. Next season will be no different. But SC’s Achilles heal has always been offensive flow and shooting the basketball from the perimeter. The Gamecocks want to force the game into a battle in a phone booth. That strategy will beat just about everyone SC plays and probably lead to another SEC championship.

UConn is Dawn & SC’s kryptonite. The Huskies spread the floor, play up tempo and beat teams playing a beautiful brand of basketball that no other team can play. While Paige has moved on to the W, Geno will have even more options when he faces SC than he had this past season when he laid a beat down on the Gamecocks twice.

Unfortunately, I am sorry to say that if and when UConn & SC meet this coming season we are likely to see more F-bombs coming from Dawn as UConn once again frustrates their efforts to win another national championship. ;)
Not sure I’d claim that. Dawn is the only coach to beat Geno in the championship and prior to this year won 5 of the last 6 head to head.
 
Not sure I’d claim that. Dawn is the only coach to beat Geno in the championship and prior to this year won 5 of the last 6 head to head.
Yes, but every one of SC’s wins proceeded as I outlined: tough defense and crash the boards. A number of those wins against UConn, including the championship game, came against a Husky team severely depleted by injuries. When Geno has the horses, as he did this past season, and as he will this coming season, UConn wins.

Beyond that, prior to UConn’s win at SC, Dawn pretty much said that they couldn’t allow UConn to play “pretty basketball” if they wanted to win. But this past year showed that UConn’s connected movement on offense is very difficult to defend. In addition, UConn’s team defense was as good as I have ever seen. The combination is simply devastating.
 
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Yes, but every one of SC’s wins proceeded as I outlined: tough defense and crash the boards.
This wasn't true in every game though:

In 2019-20 they won due to having much better offensive execution rather than just defense/rebounding. They only won the rebound battle by 2 but won the game 70-52.

In 2023-24 they won 83-65 due to an offensive outburst that saw them rack up 69 points through 3 quarters. Defense and rebounding didn't carry them this game.

So 4 out of 6 games they won based on rebounding and/or defense being the differentiator, but Dawn is capable of building teams that run really solid offenses. Just a year ago they led the nation in 3pt FG%.

A number of those wins against UConn, including the championship game, came against a Husky team severely depleted by injuries. When Geno has the horses, as he did this past season, and as he will this coming season, UConn wins.
This goes both ways though, South Carolina has missed major players in their matchups too:
2024-25 season they were missing their best post player Ashlyn Watkins in both games
2023-24 season their best player Kamilla Cardoso was out for their matchup


2021-22 they beat UCONN by 16 when both teams were healthy, and they won by 18 in 2019-20 when both teams were healthy too.


Beyond that, prior to UConn’s win at SC, Dawn pretty much said that they couldn’t allow UConn to play “pretty basketball” if they wanted to win. But this past year showed that UConn’s connected movement on offense is very difficult to defend. In addition, UConn’s team defense was as good as I have ever seen. The combination is simply devastating.


I don't disagree, UCONN's darn near impossible to stop if they're playing pretty basketball, but part of what makes playing against South Carolina so tough is they usually make it quite hard for UCONN to execute at a high level. The matchups this season were the first time since 2019 that UCONN cracked the code and was able to play pretty basketball en route to a win.
 
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