I've been looking at the South Carolina and national websites. It's safe to say that they are as excited as we are about next year's team. This is not going to be easy in any sense. SC did great in the portal, as good or better than UCONN. I know it's hard to compare Geno's plans with Dawn's, but SC added scoring and size to go along with a very nice recruiting year. Joyce Edward's is not Sarah Strong but she's going to be hard to stop next season.
I love Geno's team for next year but what would a sober analysis indicate about the odds for winning it all again. I don't think the two overwhelming wins are going to help, they might actually hurt UCONN a bit. One team will win and one team is going to come up short. What do you all think?
Based on paper I think UCONN looks like the team to beat, but going back the past ten years, the preseason #1 team rarely took home the trophy so nothing is guaranteed:
2024-25: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, UCONN won the title
2023-24: LSU was almost unanimously preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2022-23: South Carolina was unanimously preseason #1, LSU won the title
2021-22: South Carolina was preseason #1 and won the title
2020-21: South Carolina was almost unanimously preseason #1, Stanford won the title
2019-20: Oregon was almost unanimously preseason #1, there was no NCAA tournament but they would've entered the tournament as the #2 team.
2018-19: Notre Dame was unanimously preseason #1, Baylor won the title
2017-18: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1, Notre Dame won the title
2016-17: Notre Dame was preseason #1, South Carolina won the title
2015-16: UCONN was unanimously preseason #1 and won the title
In the past 10 season, the preseason #1 team has won it all only 2 out of 10 times, and in the 8 years where there was a unanimous (or almost unanimous) #1 team preseason, that squad has only won the championship 1 time.
This past year South Carolina looked like the clear cut #1 team preseason but they lost their best rim protecter mid-year to an ACL and overall the team chemistry was never as good as it was during the 2023-24 season. As a result they got blown out in the title game after running the table the previous year. Anything can happen.
Looking at top teams though, any of South Carolina, UCLA and Texas could be major title threats:
-South Carolina upgraded from Fulwiley to Taniya Latson who is one of the best scorers in the nation and brought in quality size in Okot. They should hopefully have Ashlyn Watkins back from her ACL by mid year, and she is a game changer in the post when healthy. X-factors are Raven Johnson and 3pt shooting. They need Raven to play much better offensively than she did this past season, and as a team they need to improve their 3pt shooting. Last year they were at just 32.8% where in 2023-24 they shot 39.7%. I'd expect they'll be back in the Final Four or title game again next year.
-UCLA is stacked and my favorite to win it all if UCONN doesn't. Lauren Betts is the best post player in the country and an unstoppable force in the paint. This roster should be extra motivated next year after their embarrassing 34 point loss in the national semifinals. They'll massively upgrade their SG position by swapping Londynn Jones out and bringing in Gianna Kneepkens, plus they add in Charlisse Leger-Walker who is a potent scorer when healthy. I'm not sure who comes off the bench but look for an 8 man rotation of Lauren Betts/Gardiner/Dugalic/Sienna Betts in the post with Kiki Rice/Gabriela Jaquez/CLW/Kneepkens on the perimeter.
-Texas is going to be very good next year with a deep and talented roster returning. I can't see them winning a title unless they implement more 3pt shooting though and a better offensive system. They defend extremely well but if Madison Booker is off they're very beatable and often become stagnant offensively. They're solid across the board but I think they're a step below the top 3 teams and have the least amount of talent.
Looking at UCONN, they have the most talented roster on paper going into next year led by Strong and Fudd, and become the easy choice for #1 when you consider Serah Williams is transferring in. The biggest question mark IMO is roster management. Geno's never had a roster this deep where 14 out of the 15 players are realistically hoping to crack the rotation. Keeping that many talented players dialed in and maintaining chemistry when at least 4-5 really good players will be sitting on the bench is easier said than done. It's hard to imagine a team losing Paige Bueckers is a slam dunk to win it all but they look like the favorite on paper. Should be a fun season ahead.