The Baylor Game Re-visited--

[pacific 44]

If we had flubber

 

[hoophuskee]

I watched the Baylor game again last evening. This time less emotionally.
Uconn missed a ton of shots they normally made. Baylors defense was good but not that good. Phee, whom I though was regularly stuffed, wasn't.
With 3.31 left in the 4th quarter Uconn was down by 5 ---FIVE, think about that. Usually that's a win.
KLS, Phee, had many unguarded shots that didn't go.
Point is: I feared meeting Baylor again. Not now: they were and are beatable if Uconn only plays their B plus game.

The problem has a lot to do with the construction of the team in which Geno has eluded to. He has said this year that his past teams had multiple options to win. Shut something down and they can do something else. This team can't. They need to shoot well or that's it vs the top tier teams. If they play a team like Baylor, they need to outscore them because they cant consistently stop them. As a result, as they play tougher team in each round, sooner or later thy'll probably run into a game in which they can't hit. It's not because of what Baylor's defense is doing to them. It will be because they aren't pros which means that particular day they just won't have it. You almost hope that they get by shooting poorly in the 32 game and maybe the 16 game. Then maybe for 3 games they can get hot.

I do agree with you that the Baylor game came down to not shooting well and playing away from home. But the more games they have to shoot well- law of averages will probably be they will throw in one game they just can't hit. What will be frustrating is having to hear the announcers babble for example how tough the other team's defense is -- we hear this same nonsense when UCONN loses and KLS doesn't shoot well - that they "wear her down" in some manner. It's nonsense. She;s been bricking her 3's just as much to start games as finishing them this year.

She and her teammates need to hit outside shots over a 3-5 game stretch in order to allow Collier to be super effective (or Collier needs to be one of the top efficient outside performers on a given day.) which will negate UCONN'S defensive flaws. They need to outscore the opponent from the perimeter for 3-5 consecutive games.

 

[JoePgh]

I can't believe all the 'IFs.' If we shot better... If we weren't in Waco/Louisville... If we moved the ball faster and crisper... We didn't...

If fecal matter were gold, we'd all be rich.

I think you missed the point of this thread. It wasn't to excuse the loss in Waco; it was to assess the probability that the Waco result is likely to be repeated in a second game on a neutral court in Tampa.

My assessment is that there are about 54-46 odds of Baylor winning such a rematch, but no more than that. Enough stuff happened in Waco that is not likely to happen again that UConn certainly has a reasonable chance to win the game. How often has Alabama (recently) been a prohibitive favorite in football and lost the national championship game? Nick Saban and Geno have led parallel lives in that respect recently.

Back to WCBB, what if UConn and Baylor played a 5-game series, as if they were WNBA teams? I think Baylor would win that series, but would not sweep it.

 

[Grad1990]

Lets not forget the Baylor loss was also after a long stretch at home for Christmas for the girls with little practice before traveling to Waco.

Exactly!

UConn was suffering from a healthy dose of cob webs after a long break at a time when they still hadn't really figured things out and against a motivated and ready Baylor on their home court.

I'll take UConn in the rematch.