The Azzi Fudd Conundrum

[JellyBean]

Yea LSU wasn't the best team in the country last year, revisionist history to say or imply so. They didn't win their conference regular season or tournament title for crying out loud.

Folks will always find something to chime in about LSU winning the title last year. Like folks chimed in about their non-conference schedule all season.

 

[Bone Dog]

Clearly, she has been injury prone. Whether that is predictive or not, who knows? Even when she has been relatively fit and healthy, she has not been the best shooter on the court in many games. Often, she has to go 1-5 before she finds her stroke. Few have ever seen Caitlin Clark do that.

I've seen Caitlin do even worse than that... pretty much every time she plays against UConn.

This year, head to head:
Azzi 10-19, 4-10 3pt, for 24 points.
Caitlin 9-24, 2-11 3pt for 25 points.
And Caitlin had a pretty good game that evening, but started slowly.
Two years ago, no Azzi in that one, but Paige's numbers may help for perspective:
Paige 7-18, 2-6 3pt, for 18 points.
Caitlin 7-21, 4-12 3 pt, for 21 points.
Again, Caitlin had a pretty good game, but started slowly.

More significantly, Iowa lost both games handily. Whether it's Paige or Azzi, they each take fewer shots, score comparably, and lift their teams higher than Caitlin is able to.

Of course, in hindsight I'd have preferred to have a healthy Caitlin playing for my team vs injured Paige and Azzi. But I am hopeful that our magical pair will get a full season together this year, and peak Paige and Azzi are easily the best guards in the land. Give Geno the Azzi who thumped Texas and NC St all season, and the Paige who carried the team to the NC game and he will deliver another NC to Storrs.

 

[JellyBean]

It UTAH had taken down LSU, and they could have ( oh, those missed free throws! ) then Iowa ( maybe )
beats Utah. Was LSU the best team last season... well... they won.... but it comes down to the bounce
of the ball, sometimes the refs, and then, as it happened, a phenomenal 3 point shooting percentage!
Since this is a thread on AZZI.... Azzi and her teammates will make it happen in 2023 - 2024.

Oh yeah. We did get off topic. But Azzi is still a solid player and a huge piece to the championship puzzle. #12 will happen this year. I can feel it!

 

[meyers7]

8 since we're onto the 2023-24 season now.

Yea, that's not how numbers work.

2016 - 4 NCs in a row
2017 - FF (1)
2018 - FF (2)
2019 - FF (3)
2020 - covid (4 or 3)
2021 - FF (5 or 4)
2022 - NC game (6 or 5)
2023 - S16 (7 or 6)
2024 - hasn't started yet let, alone finished.

So UCONN is either 7 or 6 seasons without a NC (closer to a 1/2 decade than a full decade) If you want to "round" you should have rounded down.

OR (if you're an actual UCONN fan)

7 or 6 seasons since winning 4 NCs in a row.

 

[cbraarj]

8 since we're onto the 2023-24 season now.

7 since in 2020 there was no tournament.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

7 since in 2020 there was no tournament.

6 since we haven't NOT wont the 2024 tournament yet.

 

[jdote33]

Yea, that's not how numbers work.

2016 - 4 NCs in a row
2017 - FF (1)
2018 - FF (2)
2019 - FF (3)
2020 - covid (4 or 3)
2021 - FF (5 or 4)
2022 - NC game (6 or 5)
2023 - S16 (7 or 6)
2024 - hasn't started yet let, alone finished.

So UCONN is either 7 or 6 seasons without a NC (closer to a 1/2 decade than a full decade) If you want to "round" you should have rounded down.

OR (if you're an actual UCONN fan)

7 or 6 seasons since winning 4 NCs in a row.

I imagine all of them hurt for most fans. But for some reason 22 still bugs. Lol. I know SC was the best team that year but I still think the team just started sooo slow in that game. I also still think Dorka would've helped a lot in that game. I'm happy that the SC class atleast got one ring cuz they were great, but that one still hurts.

 

[DEpup]

Meh. If someone hadn't bumped into her leg at two different points in the season, we might not be having a discussion about whether she's injury prone. For the first incident, she was in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

I'm not so sure. I think everyone gets bumped but not everyone gets her injuries. Even back when she was in high school, the injuries happened.

 

[wingsfan055]

Hard to separate her injury history from her performance. Yes, she has a great shot with a quick release. But, she was a very mixed-bag trying to create her shot off the dribble, and can be turnovers prone. She is also below average defensively and has slow foot speed and court speed. Her weaknesses are probably due to her knee, but you can't separate it.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Hard to separate her injury history from her performance. Yes, she has a great shot with a quick release. But, she was a very mixed-bag trying to create her shot off the dribble, and can be turnovers prone. She is also below average defensively and has slow foot speed and court speed. Her weaknesses are probably due to her knee, but you can't separate it.

I disagree with most of this. She is a very strong perimeter defender and thought she was excellent last season creating her shot off the dribble, especially before she was injured.

 

[Topdawg]

Single elimination tournaments have a small probability of identifying the best team.

The problem of ordering teams (players), best to worst, was studied in 1883 by Charles Lutwidge Dodgson who was a lecturer in mathematics at Oxford. Later in life he became famous under his pen name Lewis Carroll - the author of Alice's Adventures in Wonderland and other books!

For the most recent tournament, the 538 predictions before the start of the tournament for the probability of winning the championship was 68% for South Carolina, 5% for UConn, and 3% for LSU. Correspondingly, it was 3% for UConn (Men). The South Carolina prediction is an unusually high probability. We know who won, and we may argue we know who the best teams in the tournament were. But were they the best teams in 2022/2023.

The best teams have a higher probability of winning tournaments where the format is like the NBA (best of many games) or World Cup Soccer (Pool followed by single elimination). Single game elimination is likely more exciting for the fans because on any given night, the best teams can be upset.

Since this thread is about Azzi, I shall draw the connection between the study of single elimination formats and the likelihood of players getting injured. It is hard to predict which players will get injured and which players will not. The fact that Azzi has been injured before does not make her more likely to be injured in the future unless she either started out with structural/physical issues or has not healed from recent injuries. In a contact sport, people do get injured. Odds are that probability of injury will revert to the mean and since Azzi has already been injured, she may go the rest of her playing career without getting injured at a level that limits her playing time. That is my wish.

Azzi and Paige will be back and be ready to show us in games that they can make 11 out of 12 three point baskets, as a recent Azzi video showed!