The AAC is an absolute train-wreck

[Hi-Low]

Of course there will. Seeding in the NCAAs matters. UConn was underseeded by about 2 lines last year, in a much stronger iteration of this conference.

What do you think will happen this year if lose another game or two, and run roughshod all over the AAC? Let's say they win against Texas and @Stanford, and lose against Duke and Florida. Drop 2 games in the AAC, and then win the tournament. That's a 25-5 team that will have almost no quality wins. Where do they get seeded? A major conference team that does that is in discussion for a 1 seed, and is no worse than a 2.

Sign me up for 25-5 right now! It's 3-4 games into the season for most teams and we're pronouncing Memphis, SMU, Cincy, Temple, etc a complete disaster? Granted not pretty so far but let's give it a little longer...I predict 3 bids at least. Also I will take the wins vs TX, Stanford with loses to Duke, Fla...would love to win them all and it's not out of the realm but a split works.

 

[tzznandrew]

Sign me up for 25-5 right now! It's 3-4 games into the season for most teams and we're pronouncing Memphis, SMU, Cincy, Temple, etc a complete disaster? Granted not pretty so far but let's give it a little longer...I predict 3 bids at least. Also I will take the wins vs TX, Stanford with loses to Duke, Fla...would love to win them all and it's not out of the realm but a split works.

I'm not predicting those teams disasters, although I don't think that Temple will be as much better as we'd hope. I was just positing a really good record, and then imagining how that would still hurt us because of the conference.

Ultimately, I think this conference ends up with 3 bids, and 5 Top 100 teams.

I think UConn gets in, and then 2 of SMU, Cincy, Memphis, Tulsa. 3 of those four will be clearly in the Top 50, and one between 50 and 100. Temple has an outside shot at Top 100, but I suspect they'll finish this year right outside it.

I also think that some of the dregs from last year will look a little better (UCF, USF, Houston) in RPI, but Tulane and ECU will be disasters.

All in all, it may look like something in between the 2011 (high end) and 2012 Pac-10/12.

 

[CTBasketball]

We go 25-5 we'll be like a 5-6 seed. The days of 1-3 seeds are over unless we go sub 2 losses.

 

[champs99and04]

I don't think anybody is projecting the demise of this years UConn team on the basis of the conference being bad. There are plenty of past teams who have thrived despite their conference affiliation. But there is unquestionably going to be some collateral damage felt by UConn, if for no other reason than that the selection committee is incompetent. Everything worked out for last years UConn team, in large part because we drew a beatable Villanova team in Buffalo. That's not to take anything away from them, because they could have easily beaten anybody, anywhere given how well they were playing. But what if we had played Wisconsin in Milwaukee instead? Then we really would have been screwed.

There may or may not be any evidence to support the fact that testing yourself with a good schedule correlates with March success. Somebody would have to research it. But I don't think we win the national championship last season without playing Louisville three times. I don't think we win the championship without playing SMU twice or Cincinnati three times. Those were all extremely good, tough squads, particularly defensively, that exposed some flaws and accelerated the development of guys like Giffey and Daniels. I think surviving the meat grinder of the Big East in 2011 helped, as well.

If you're a great team you're a great team, and I generally agree that UConn will determine their fate rather than other teams. But particularly in seasons like this, where we figure to be much better towards the end of the season than at the beginning, there's not necessarily much reward for taking losses to tough teams OOC. At the very least, it reduces your margin for error.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

We go 25-5 we'll be like a 5-6 seed. The days of 1-3 seeds are over unless we go sub 2 losses.

If we go 25-5 with only 2 conference losses and wins over Texas and Stanford, we'd have a better resume than Louisville did last year.

 

[CTBasketball]

If we go 25-5 with only 2 conference losses and wins over Texas and Stanford, we'd have a better resume than Louisville did last year.

Loses to West Virginia, Duke, Florida, and like Cincinnati/Temple will not give us a 3/4 seed. We would have 2 or 3 quality wins depending on how Dayton does.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we go 25-5 with only 2 conference losses and wins over Texas and Stanford, we'd have a better resume than Louisville did last year.

That depends, doesn't it, on whom you beat in conference. They got Top 50 wins over UConn (3), SMU (2), and Cincy (1), and their losses within conference (Memphis x2 and Cincy) were also Top 50.

Is UConn going to have that same luxury?

And, Louisville got a 4 seed after winning both the regular season and tournament championship. Is that what our peak is? Are we comfortable with that, because that really screws us over long term.

 

[tzznandrew]

Loses to West Virginia, Duke, Florida, and like Cincinnati/Temple will not give us a 3/4 seed. We would have 2 or 3 quality wins depending on how Dayton does.

Some people don't seem to realize yet how we are at the moment (some of the teams can and probably will improve, but they aren't anywhere near where they need to be). We needed SMU to go out and win their OOC games. And Memphis. And our lower tier teams to actually schedule real teams.

Many people seem blinded by the fact that the AAC was actually pretty solid at the top last year, and forget that it over all our teams in the post season. SMU didn't make it. Memphis as an 8 was okay. Cincy as a 5 was too low. Louisville at a 4 was too low. UConn at a 7 was too low. Our run wasn't luck, but a run like that is rare, and as @champs99and04 points out, exceedingly fortunate to be in Buffalo rather than Milwaukee, or some other less "neutral" place.

 

[CTBasketball]

Some people don't seem to realize yet how we are at the moment (some of the teams can and probably will improve, but they aren't anywhere near where they need to be). We needed SMU to go out and win their OOC games. And Memphis. And our lower tier teams to actually schedule real teams.

Many people seem blinded by the fact that the AAC was actually pretty solid at the top last year, and forget that it over all our teams in the post season. SMU didn't make it. Memphis as an 8 was okay. Cincy as a 5 was too low. Louisville at a 4 was too low. UConn at a 7 was too low. Our run wasn't luck, but a run like that is rare, and as @champs99and04 points out, exceedingly fortunate to be in Buffalo rather than Milwaukee, or some other less "neutral" place.

Exactly. We had 3 losses to Louisville last year, who was Top25 RPI. If we lost those same games to teams outside the Top50 or 100 RPI, we aren't in the tournament.

If you look at the current KenPom rankings (or RPI, whatever you want), we play the following:

• Memphis 35
• Tulsa 52
• SMU 57
• Cincinnati 62
• Temple 125
• USF 154
• Houston 167
• UCF 184
• East Carolina 207
• Tulane 221

I highly doubt Memphis will stay top 50, as they're bad this year. No guard play whatsoever. Tulsa, SMU, and Cincinnati might stick. The rest are garbage. Temple can break top 100 though. If you compare the worst Big East team with our teams, Marquette clocks in at 124. Which is better than almost 2/3 of our league. Obviously these teams all need to pass the eye test, but rankings/SOS/and quality wins play a huge factor in seeding.

If we drop even 3/4 of the games to Duke, Stanford, Texas, or Florida, we're looking at a 7 or 8 seed barring any debacle in conference.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

That depends, doesn't it, on whom you beat in conference. They got Top 50 wins over UConn (3), SMU (2), and Cincy (1), and their losses within conference (Memphis x2 and Cincy) were also Top 50.

Is UConn going to have that same luxury?

And, Louisville got a 4 seed after winning both the regular season and tournament championship. Is that what our peak is? Are we comfortable with that, because that really screws us over long term.

Louisville also had exactly zero impressive wins out of conference.

 

[tzznandrew]

Louisville also had exactly zero impressive wins out of conference.

Right. But they had impressive wins in conference. Against us, and others. Without Louisville in the league anymore, where are we picking them up in conference?

 

[Gurleyman]

We got screwed on locations as a high seed in the Big East all the time, right up until 2011 when we had to play SDSU in Anaheim. If we played Wisconsin in Milwaukee it would be the same ol, same ol and we'd have to bring it like we did in Anaheim (or against Texas).

Being underseeded, though, is a problem - it makes it harder to get out of the first round or two while you're still adjusting to tourney pressure. Even Bazz had a really off day against St. Joe's, and you can survive something like that much easier against a 13 seed*. Once you get to the Sweet 16, you have a few days to settle in and have some confidence and then you can throw some haymakers at whoever is in your way. But if you get a bad seed, you lose your chance to settle in and have to play well from the start. I don't think our ceiling is a 4 - Wichita, Memphis and Gonzaga have been 1s, but we can't make up ground with a strong finish like we did in 2002 or 2005 on our way to 2 seeds after several early losses (or like 2011 in getting a 3 with a good BE tourney).

* does not apply to Georgetown

 

[CTBballfan243]

It's a new world order and we just need to get use to it. UCONN is now in a mid-major conference. We might not like it but hey, that's life. UCONN will make the best of it. Gonzaga is able to make it work and so won't UCONN!!!! REMEMBER PEOPLE, WE ARE UCONN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO COMPETE AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. #Bleedblue

 

[nelsonmuntz]

ECU loses to Hawaii and UCF is getting tuned up at home by Davidson. This league is so freaking brutal.

 

[Gurleyman]

I damn near just posted that at least TCU played well today and won by 24.

I don't even know what's in this pu pu platter yet.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Loses to West Virginia, Duke, Florida, and like Cincinnati/Temple will not give us a 3/4 seed. We would have 2 or 3 quality wins depending on how Dayton does.

yeah we have to definitely beat texas at home, stanford away, and at worst split duke/florida... It all depends if the team comes out ready and not scared, i believe we have the talent to do very well the rest of the schedule just depends on the team... uconn has always come together late jan/feb. but we have also had teh big east to play quality opponents so the ooc becomes much more important... against WVU the team was shocked by the way WVU came out, seemed like no one but boat and hamilton wanted the ball... I have faith in Ollie

 

[UConnSwag11]

the ACC can use one more school to make 16 also depends if fsu and clemson leave then they can use a few more, the big 12, big east, and big 10 can use several more schools

 

[CTBasketball]

@UConnSwag11

Realistically, I think Florida and Texas are very winnable games. Stanford and Duke will be harder. Especially Stanford, playing in Palo Alto is not easy.

 

[Cheeky]

It's really been wonderful the last 3 days logging in and seeing "the AAC is a trainwreck" at the top of the board. Let's all work together to keep this thread bumped up to the top over the next 4 months, which will be like taping a picture of the ex who ran off with your best friend on your car's rear-view mirror so that you don't go long without reliving at least a small portion of the misery.

 

[itgoeslike]

ECU loses to Hawaii and UCF is getting tuned up at home by Davidson. This league is so freaking brutal.

Davidson is always tough. I'm not sure if either of these losses are too surprising.

 

[kobe]

I am definitely concerned that weakness of the AAC will hurt Cincinnati. We have a very young team that is really struggling to find itself right now. We've got a tough stretch of games coming up w/ possible game vs Creighton, @Nebraska, VCU, San Diego State, and @NC State. Usually I wouldn't worry too much about losing games in December but those may be our only chances for quality wins outside of a few games against Connecticut!

 

[metsfan2323]

I am definitely concerned that weakness of the AAC will hurt Cincinnati. We have a very young team that is really struggling to find itself right now. We've got a tough stretch of games coming up w/ possible game vs Creighton, @Nebraska, VCU, San Diego State, and @NC State. Usually I wouldn't worry too much about losing games in December but those may be our only chances for quality wins outside of a few games against Connecticut!

wrong, being in the AAC actually gives you a shot at the tournament, if you had to play all of those Big East teams twice they would bury you this year, you would finish in the bottom half of the league and be NIT bound.

This ass backwards logic that the conference will be to blame if your team sucks is mindless liberal bullcrap, blaming someone else for your shortcomings.

 

[chapwilvaug72]

be more concerned that all pseudo nonteams which are unknown to e. seaboard fans which comprise aac will plummet home attendance to nil

 

[intlzncster]

wrong, being in the AAC actually gives you a shot at the tournament, if you had to play all of those Big East teams twice they would bury you this year, you would finish in the bottom half of the league and be NIT bound.

This ass backwards logic that the conference will be to blame if your team sucks is mindless liberal bullcrap, blaming someone else for your shortcomings.

waaaaat.

 

[champs99and04]

wrong, being in the AAC actually gives you a shot at the tournament, if you had to play all of those Big East teams twice they would bury you this year, you would finish in the bottom half of the league and be NIT bound.

This ass backwards logic that the conference will be to blame if your team sucks is mindless liberal bullcrap, blaming someone else for your shortcomings.

Right, we should all abide by your infallible logic that UConn performs in a vacuum and external variables never come into play.