OT: The A-10 will be better than the AAC next year

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Next year, one conference to be excited about is the A-10 and I firmly believe they will be a better conference, top to bottom, than the AAC next year. According to KenPom's AdjEM, the A-10 has not been a stronger conference since the 2014-2015 season (when they were a three-bid conference and Richmond was snubbed from a fourth).

Below are the A-10 and AAC teams (sans UConn) with their 19/20 scores. A team in bold is a team expected to be better in 20/21 and a team in italics is a team expected to be worse. Teams in regular format should be around the same.

4 Dayton - Could only go down after Obi graduates.
46 Richmond - projected starting lineup of 100% seniors. Outside of Gonzaga, could be the best mid-major team in America.
62 Saint Louis - three best players are seniors. Similar to Richmond, could be the 2nd best mid-major in America.

65 Rhode Island - Langevine graduated and a lot of depth transferred
70 Davidson - Gudmudsson graduates, but a lot of returning players.
73 VCU - Evans/Vann/Jenkins gradiate and Santos-Silva transfers. Rebuilding year.
95 Duquesne - no major players graduated and they played without a home court last year.
123 St. Bonaventure - Six of their top 7 players return. Super quintet of juniors.
165 UMass - So young last year.
174 George Mason - Lots of injury issues last year, but a veteran team.

181 La Salle - Curious how Clifton Moore fits in, could be better.
241 George Washington - Trio of returning 10+ mpg players and a nice transfer haul.
245 Fordham - Their best player Chuba Ohams was injured most of last year, but don’t feel confident ranking them higher.
260 Saint Joseph’s - Can only be better. Curious how transfers Dahmir Bishop and Greg Foster fit

14 Houston - should be clearly the best team in the AAC.
39 Wichita State - A great exodus. Wish Alterique the best.
44 Cincy - No more Cumberland and Tre Scott. 21/22 squad should be good.

59 Memphis - No Precious, but team gets a little older. Should be around this spot unless any transfers get waivers.
80 Tulsa - Igbanu/Korita graduates and Jeriah Horne transferred out.
88 SMU - With seniors last year and three 14+ ppg players returning, dark horse for best team in AAC.
115 Temple - Quinton Rose graduated and now the Pierre-Louis bros transferred out. McKie won’t last.
117 UCF - Smith/Green are a nice inside outside duo and a nice pair of transfers coming in.
125 USF - Yetna is back.

185 Tulane - Lawson graduated, Hightower arrested…21/22 could be a good year with four transfers coming in
217 East Carolina - almost entire team returns, but who besides Gardner has talent?
 
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Next year, one conference to be excited about is the A-10 and I firmly believe they will be a better conference, top to bottom, than the AAC next year. According to KenPom's AdjEM, the A-10 has not been a stronger conference since the 2014-2015 season (when they were a three-bid conference and Richmond was snubbed from a fourth).

Below are the A-10 and AAC teams (sans UConn) with their 19/20 scores. A team in bold is a team expected to be better in 20/21 and a team in italics is a team expected to be worse. Teams in regular format should be around the same.

4 Dayton - Could only go down after Obi graduates.
46 Richmond - projected starting lineup of 100% seniors. Outside of Gonzaga, could be the best mid-major team in America.
62 Saint Louis - three best players are seniors. Similar to Richmond, could be the 2nd best mid-major in America.

65 Rhode Island - Langevine graduated and a lot of depth transferred
70 Davidson - Gudmudsson graduates, but a lot of returning players.
73 VCU - Evans/Vann/Jenkins gradiate and Santos-Silva transfers. Rebuilding year.
95 Duquesne - no major players graduated and they played without a home court last year.
123 St. Bonaventure - Six of their top 7 players return. Super quintet of juniors.
165 UMass - So young last year.
174 George Mason - Lots of injury issues last year, but a veteran team.

181 La Salle - Curious how Clifton Moore fits in, could be better.
241 George Washington - Trio of returning 10+ mpg players and a nice transfer haul.
245 Fordham - Their best player Chuba Ohams was injured most of last year, but don’t feel confident ranking them higher.
260 Saint Joseph’s - Can only be better. Curious how transfers Dahmir Bishop and Greg Foster fit

14 Houston - should be clearly the best team in the AAC.
39 Wichita State - A great exodus. Wish Alterique the best.
44 Cincy - No more Cumberland and Tre Scott. 21/22 squad should be good.

59 Memphis - No Precious, but team gets a little older. Should be around this spot unless any transfers get waivers.
80 Tulsa - Igbanu/Korita graduates and Jeriah Horne transferred out.
88 SMU - With seniors last year and three 14+ ppg players returning, dark horse for best team in AAC.
115 Temple - Quinton Rose graduated and now the Pierre-Louis bros transferred out. McKie won’t last.
117 UCF - Smith/Green are a nice inside outside duo and a nice pair of transfers coming in.
125 USF - Yetna is back.

185 Tulane - Lawson graduated, Hightower arrested…21/22 could be a good year with four transfers coming in
217 East Carolina - almost entire team returns, but who besides Gardner has talent?

AAC? Is that a conference?
 
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URI lost Jeff Dowtin to graduation, too. As of now, they have four sit-out transfers and, if the rule doesn’t change and no one gets a waiver, only 7 available players, with two scholarship spots still to fill. Of those seven, only three saw game action last year. So much roster turnover the last two years. They better figure it out, Dan didn’t work that hard for it not to be sustained. A lot of their fans are anxiously awaiting this upcoming vote on immediate eligibility.

ETA: Nate Hinton just announced he’s not coming back to Houston.
 
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Shooting for that number 7 spot behind the Pac 12. Three bids a year, four in a good year. Best team usually ranked. Team in the Sweet 16 every year, with an Elite 8 team every 3-4 years. Those are realistic goals for the A10. Would help if the AAC, MWC, and WCC are similar. Those lesser multi-bid leagues should want to create the perception that they're on a separate level after the P6, and that "mid major" refers only to one bid leagues, not them. They need to come up with a name for it though.
 
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Would help if the AAC, MWC, and WCC are similar. Those lesser multi-bid leagues should want to create the perception that they're on a separate level after the P6, and that "mid major" refers only to one bid leagues, not them. They need to come up with a name for it though.
Very fair point. Those four conferences are perennially the better "mid major" conferences out there. The next wave usually includes the MVC and CUSA.

Other mid-major conferences that should be better than normal:

Sun Belt: They have a good top trio between Little Rock/Georgia State/South Alabama and a nice middle level of Texas State/UT-Arlington/Appalachian State.

Southern: Furman/UNC-Greensboro/Wofford/ETSU/Chattanooga all solid programs

OVC: Belmont/Austin Peay/Murray State/Eastern Kentucky

Over the last two/three seasons, I've really been getting into mid-major basketball. For example, if Loyola-Chicago plays Northern Iowa at the same time that a Louisville/Clemson game is one, I'm tuning into the MVC game.
 
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AAC? Is that a conference?
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Next year, one conference to be excited about is the A-10 and I firmly believe they will be a better conference, top to bottom, than the AAC next year. According to KenPom's AdjEM, the A-10 has not been a stronger conference since the 2014-2015 season (when they were a three-bid conference and Richmond was snubbed from a fourth).

Below are the A-10 and AAC teams (sans UConn) with their 19/20 scores. A team in bold is a team expected to be better in 20/21 and a team in italics is a team expected to be worse. Teams in regular format should be around the same.

4 Dayton - Could only go down after Obi graduates.
46 Richmond - projected starting lineup of 100% seniors. Outside of Gonzaga, could be the best mid-major team in America.
62 Saint Louis - three best players are seniors. Similar to Richmond, could be the 2nd best mid-major in America.

65 Rhode Island - Langevine graduated and a lot of depth transferred
70 Davidson - Gudmudsson graduates, but a lot of returning players.
73 VCU - Evans/Vann/Jenkins gradiate and Santos-Silva transfers. Rebuilding year.
95 Duquesne - no major players graduated and they played without a home court last year.
123 St. Bonaventure - Six of their top 7 players return. Super quintet of juniors.
165 UMass - So young last year.
174 George Mason - Lots of injury issues last year, but a veteran team.

181 La Salle - Curious how Clifton Moore fits in, could be better.
241 George Washington - Trio of returning 10+ mpg players and a nice transfer haul.
245 Fordham - Their best player Chuba Ohams was injured most of last year, but don’t feel confident ranking them higher.
260 Saint Joseph’s - Can only be better. Curious how transfers Dahmir Bishop and Greg Foster fit

14 Houston - should be clearly the best team in the AAC.
39 Wichita State - A great exodus. Wish Alterique the best.
44 Cincy - No more Cumberland and Tre Scott. 21/22 squad should be good.

59 Memphis - No Precious, but team gets a little older. Should be around this spot unless any transfers get waivers.
80 Tulsa - Igbanu/Korita graduates and Jeriah Horne transferred out.
88 SMU - With seniors last year and three 14+ ppg players returning, dark horse for best team in AAC.
115 Temple - Quinton Rose graduated and now the Pierre-Louis bros transferred out. McKie won’t last.
117 UCF - Smith/Green are a nice inside outside duo and a nice pair of transfers coming in.
125 USF - Yetna is back.

185 Tulane - Lawson graduated, Hightower arrested…21/22 could be a good year with four transfers coming in
217 East Carolina - almost entire team returns, but who besides Gardner has talent?
Saint Louis roster top to bottom looks great. They beat Richmond by around 14 or 16 @ Richmond last year. Richmond was at full strength. Saint Louis was missing a key player that was injured early last year if not mistaken (a freshman who earned Freshman player of the week twice?).

Saint Louis though has the makings of being the quintessential one and done in the tournament. Arguably the least effective free throw shooting teams in the country. Offensive efficiency over 100 with Travis Ford as coach. I think Saint Louis will probably crack the top 50 in offensive efficiency this year but that offense is not an asset when looking for a S16/E8 type team. Dayton last year had very good metrics for a Final 4 run. Saint Louis took them to OT in STL and then had the lead for a good part of the game @ Dayton. I had a 300k comeback @ 1000/1 on a Dayton title before the tournament was cancelled with 50k on the FF @ 200/1. Late August I made the play in Vegas. *Now I just hope they may have been upset in the second round by a Big 10 team.* Hopefully Dayton's strength of schedule may have been a weakness.
 

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