The 2013-14 Connecticut Huskies - An Extensive Preview | The Boneyard

The 2013-14 Connecticut Huskies - An Extensive Preview

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With only about 48 hours remaining until opening tip-off, you’re probably wondering why you should devote 20 minutes of your day to a novel some anonymous shmuck on the internet decided to write. That thought is fair; I’m not the best writer in the world, there are probably hundreds of thousands of people who know as much or more about basketball as I do, and most of the talking points heading into the season have already been beaten into the ground over the last seven months. But here’s why you should toss aside your preconceived opinions of me as a poster and read the thing: nobody who’s not directly connected to the program cares more about the current state of affairs of this team as I do, I promise not to bore you with the same bland, run-of-the-mill analysis the national media is going to give you, and the sheer amount of time I’ve spent breaking down tape will be enough to hopefully overcome any limitations I may have.

My original plan was to watch six games from the 2012-13 season that spanned the calendar in a relatively equidistant manner. That way, I could account for individual progressions made throughout the season, note how the team was adapting to the various schemes opposing coaches threw their way, etc. The six opponents I selected were Michigan State, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, and Georgetown. I selected these games because they were among the best six teams UConn played all season, and in eleven of the twelve halves, UConn was competitive and relatively evenly matched with six of the best teams in the country. Unfortunately, the MSU game footage was not available on ESPN3, so I replaced that game with N.C. State. I planned on writing an in-depth summary on each play of each of those games, and then a detailed breakdown on the happenings and an analysis of the players at the end of each half. Why did I decide to do this? Because these are the type of ideas single men come up with when they have too much free time. Anyway, I logged about 10 total hours watching the N.C. State and Marquette games – I watched every play 2-4 times, over-analyzed just about everything under the sun, and came away stunned at how much I learned simply by re-watching two random games that may or may not have any bearing on the upcoming season. Then…life got in the way. Late August rolled around, my free time was greatly reduced, and I was only able to watch half the Notre Dame game and pinches of the Louisville, Syracuse, and Georgetown games from there. I mention this only because you would be shocked at how much goes on in a basketball game. The amount of moving parts on every individual play are virtually impossible to keep up with, and the box score only begins to scratch the surface of everything that happens out there. The fluidity and unending movement featured in every basketball game is the reason I love the sport so much. You get so caught up in the excitement of the live telecast that sometimes you gloss over the hours of scouting and scheming players and coaches put in during the course of a week. It is an outcome driven sport, but in this preview I will make a concerted effort to focus on the process that generates those outcomes.

The importance of a college basketball coach is impossible to overstate. Unless you’re Kentucky, North Carolina, or Kansas – which, let’s face it, we are not – the short-term and long-term health of your program is going to be dictated almost entirely by your head coach. Much of this is driven by recruiting, but great teachers of the game are able to possess a much greater margin of error on the recruiting trail, which is to say their immense knowledge of the game and ability to consistently win the chess matches every game produces can disguise any personnel deficiencies. Interestingly enough, the prevailing narrative from the national media a season ago revolved nearly exclusively around Kevin Ollie’s ability to motivate his players despite the lack of an opportunity to play in the postseason. Don’t get me wrong: Kevin Ollie’s uncanny ability to get his players to take a bullet for him is unquantifiable and crucially important, and as we have seen over the years, a bland personality and inability to manage relationships can be the undoing of an otherwise good coach. But, none of the intangible stuff matters if you crumble into the floor the moment you’re confronted with an x’s and o’s battle, which is an incredibly round-about way of saying Kevin Ollie is a damn good basketball mind and a disproportionate amount of the praise heaped upon him last season was predicated on his motivational skills. What he was able to do last season – with two reliable scorers for the majority of the season, no semblance of a post-game, and a miniscule margin of error due to routine stomping’s on the glass – was nothing short of remarkable and right on par with some of Jim Calhoun’s greatest coaching jobs.

The first thing you have to understand about Kevin Ollie’s offense is that, much like the old Calhoun offenses, it is extremely comparable to your standard NBA design. Pick and rolls occupy nearly every single possession, and although many possessions fail to register much off-ball movement, many of the simplest schemes are among the most effective. Over-complicating sets when your roster consists of two of the best improvisers in the country in Boatright and Napier is actually a bit counter-productive. This being said, the offense certainly includes enough diversity in the way of off-ball innovation to keep defenders guessing, and I have no doubts that, even without the benefit of two blurs in the backcourt, Ollie could tweak his offense so that it is less reliant on pick and rolls. Tailoring your offense to fit the personnel – rather than trying to stuff a square into a round hole – is a great attribute to have as a coach.

Another staple in the Calhoun offense that Ollie appears to have inherited is the pin-down screen. Given the programs rich history of wings – between Ray, Rip, Caron, Ben, Lamb, and even Kemba to a lesser extent – carving out space for these guys with continuous screening and movement away from the ball became a necessity. Although there is a distinction to be made between the aforementioned players and the Bazz/Boat combination from a year ago (Shabazz and Boatright are more comfortable in pick and roll situations than guys like Rip and Ray), the general principal of getting your two best scorers an inch remains the same. Take a random possession, shortly into the N.C. State game, with UConn trailing 32-31, as an example: Napier begins with the ball at the top of the key and then dumps it off to Olander at the left elbow. Napier then immediately cuts off Olander’s right shoulder – likely a disguised dribble-handoff – and then that spills into Calhoun (who was on the left wing) cutting through the paint. As soon as Calhoun reaches the right block, Daniels bolts down to set a pin down screen for Calhoun, who pops up to the top of the key to receive a pass from Olander. Simultaneously, Boatright jogs down to the left block. Immediately after Olander dishes it off to Calhoun, he screens Boatright on the left block, and Boatright pops up to the top of the key, passes to Napier, and proceeds to exit the play as Olander screens Napier on the left wing. (This is all probably extremely confusing, so if you want to see the play in real time, go to about the 18:50 mark in the second half).

This particular play was well-defended by N.C. State and did not result in a UConn basket, however, this play, as well as any other, demonstrates the multiple dimensions of Kevin Ollie’s offense. Successful offensive sets are rarely dependent on the first or even second option; instead, they are like a 30 second orchestra with every player fulfilling their individual duties, however subtle they may be. This play is called the double pin down – the first option was Calhoun catching the ball with space at the top of the key after receiving a Daniels screen on the right block, the second option was Boatright popping up from the left block with space to launch a three, and if neither of the initial options worked, the play is supposed to spill into a pick and roll between Napier and Olander on the left side of the floor. This is only a single, isolated play in a season of thousands, but it does provide a glimpse into successful offensive methodology, a hallmark of a great coach. Every great play is intended to do one thing: decrease the defenses margin of error. Between Calhoun – a respected three point shooter – popping up to the top of the key, Boatright doing the same three second later, and the terrifyingly potent Shabazz Napier needing only half an inch to get a shot off, N.C. State is forced to account for three different capable scorers in the span of ten seconds. The chance of a poor hedge, miscommunication, or incorrect read increase dramatically when the defense has their plate stuffed to this degree. In other words, Kevin Ollie is forcing the defense to be perfect. More often than not – in an era of high roster turnover and overall lack of cohesiveness – perfection is going to escape the defense.

I should mention, now that I’ve just finished covering a favorite of Kevin Ollie against man-to-man defense, a similarly frequently utilized play against the zone. Let’s go back in the time machine to our final Big East game against Syracuse, or what some would say was our national championship last season. About six and a half minutes remain in the game, and Brandon Triche just hit a baseline floater to cut the UConn lead to six. Omar Calhoun has just hit two threes in a row, and Kevin Ollie wants to do everything within his power to get him another open look to extend the lead to nine and more or less put the game away. Promptly after crossing the timeline, Ollie directs Calhoun to the left corner (not coincidently, the sweet spot in the zone and also Calhoun’s favorite spot on the floor). Napier handles the ball behind the three point line, and on the right side of the floor. The goal here is to eliminate both Syracuse high men atop the zone – in this case, Triche on the right side and Carter-Williams on the left side – and allow Boatright, stationed parallel to Napier on the left side of the floor, a crease into the interior of the zone. Daniels screens Triche, allowing Napier some maneuvering room. As the Syracuse zone principals dictate, Carter-Williams shuffles over to pick him up. What Carter-Williams doesn’t expect, however, is the blind side screen Giffey is about to set. As soon as Daniels sets the initial screen on Napier, he proceeds to dribble left and dish it to Boatright. Because of the Giffey screen on Carter-Williams, there is a gaping hole in the middle of the Syracuse zone for Boatright to attack. This forces Southerland, the Syracuse defender nearest to Calhoun, into a dilemma. Does he allow Boatright to go one on one with the center, or does he help over and allow Calhoun to step into a wide open corner three? Well, he chose incorrectly, because as soon as Boatright hit the left elbow, Southerland was right there to meet him, leaving Calhoun all alone in the left corner. Boatright read the play correctly, and two seconds later the ball was in the basket and Boeheim was chewing out Southerland on the sideline. Good times.

I promise to stop with the x’s and o’s barrage in a minute, but there is another play from that Syracuse game that I couldn’t resist sharing. This play was basically a variation of the one I just outlined above; with 13 minutes remaining in the second half and up 37-35, UConn ran another double screen at the top of the key to eliminate both of the top men, again Triche and Carter-Williams. This time, Napier receives an excellent screen from Olander at the top of the key, and because Giffey – a respected shooter – is stationed in the left corner, C.J. Fair is unable to fully help on Napier, allowing him to attack the middle man in the zone. Because the middle man is forced to step up on Napier, there is a huge vacancy near the basket, and Boatright, lurking the whole time in the right corner, swoops to the basket to receive an easy alley-oop the second Napier peals inside the three point line. Granted, Southerland – a frequent target of Boeheim’s ire in this game – falling asleep on the right wing makes the whole operation easier, but even if we were to assume he completes his assignment on this play, Napier is still one on one against a center. And really, it’s precisely that kind of manipulation of the defense that allows a play against the zone to work. The weakness of the zone isn’t necessarily the structure – it’s the fact that individual matchups are easier to exploit. It’s this type of basketball intellect from Kevin Ollie that inspires confidence in me that he can be not just a good coach, but a great one. From the hundreds of plays I analyzed this summer, there were varying degrees of success, and I certainly am not going to pretend that the 2012-13 Huskies were the Spurs in terms of visually pleasing team basketball. What I can say, though, is that more often than not, possessions culminated in high percentage shots, and with increased repetition, improved cohesiveness, and an expanding array of reliable scorers, there is no reason to think Kevin Ollie doesn’t have enough at his disposal this season to engineer an elite offense.
 
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Per Pomeroy, UConn was 62nd in the country in offensive efficiency a year ago. Going into the season, I expected UConn to have a relatively efficient offense despite the departures. We returned two of our best three offensive players in Boatright and Napier, Omar Calhoun was one of the best pure scorers in his class, and DeAndre Daniels was expected to improve substantially from his freshman to sophomore season. All of this came to fruition, Kevin Ollie knew what he was doing, and the result was a good offense that probably would have been better were it not for late season injuries that briefly rendered us unwatchable. What I did not expect, however, was for the defense to be ranked 57th in the country (and that ranking is severely reduced by the fact that we were among the worst rebounding teams in the nation). Everybody was well aware of the frontcourt issues, but I thought our problems were even more far-reaching than that. Between Boatright and Napier, you had two guards on the wrong side of six feet who were going to have to switch off getting the hell beaten out of them by bigger, stronger two guards. Omar Calhoun was similarly dis-advantaged defensively against certain opponents, forced to guard small forwards like C.J. Fair and Otto Porter for long stretches even with his hip injury ailing him. DeAndre Daniels was a stretch four surrendering 20 pounds to many of the forwards he had to oppose on a nightly basis, and Tyler Olander was vastly overmatched physically and athletically against the majority of Big East centers. Add all that together, and it’s easy to forget that a year ago at this time, there were people on this board wondering if this team would be able to crack the .500 mark. It was a poor defensive team on paper – especially when you considered the offensive workload Napier and Boatright were going to have to burden, which certainly figured to sap some of their energy on the other end – exacerbated by the fact that we had nobody to get a rebound.

Yet somehow, despite these shortcomings, Kevin Ollie managed to patch together a respectable defense that would have been borderline elite with the addition of a couple competent rebounders. How did he do it? Well, for one, he was able negate the advantages our opponents possessed on the interior by stacking the paint with his two guards – namely Boatright and Napier – and forcing opposing big men into split-second decisions. He was also able to nurse leads late in games by relying on R.J. Evans and Niels Giffey for defensive support, specifically earlier in the season when Daniels and Calhoun were wildly sporadic offensively. Additionally, I would wager that UConn played more zone last season than at any point in the Calhoun era, and that certainly proved to be a wise strategy in certain games, particularly against teams like Marquette who struggled to throw the ball in the ocean from deep. Versatility is a term we generally associate with players, but it can be applied to coaches, too. Ollie was anything but afraid to alter his game plan depending on the flow of the game, and he wasn’t so entrenched in his ways that he couldn’t adapt in the middle of games to move away from something that wasn’t working. As thoroughly impressed as I was with Ollie’s offensive philosophy, his ability to overcome the pressingly evident holes the departures of Andre Drummond, Roscoe Smith, and Alex Oriakhi left on the defensive end of the floor was even more commendable.

Tying this all together, Kevin Ollie’s background in the NBA was very apparent last season. In this field, it’s hard to argue that playing for 12 different franchises, in addition to spending six years under Jim Calhoun (as a player and an assistant) is anything but beneficial. Common sense would seem to dictate that journeymen – because of the various philosophies, schemes, and models they are exposed to – are the best suited of all professional athletes to blend all their lessons together in an efficient manner. If Kevin Ollie coaches the next twenty seasons for this University as well as he coached the last one, he’s going to be a phenomenal head coach. But the great part is, I have a feeling last season was just the tip of the iceberg – he now has more dynamic players at his disposal, a veteran team likely capable of taking to complex plays more quickly, and a roster and a fan base that would run through a wall for him. If he did what he did last season with a limitless supply of questions, I can’t wait to see what he can do now that those questions have been addressed.

As I begin to evaluate players, and what I expect their respective roles to be this season, I think a good place to start is with the much-maligned Tyler Olander. Olander has become something of a punch line in these parts, and despite his lack of production, I continue to believe much of the grief he takes on here is unwarranted. Here is something I wrote last season, about Olander and R.J. Evans, following the Marquette game:

“Tyler Olander and R.J. Evans are similarly constructed basketball players, and tonight’s game demonstrated their limitations fairly accurately. Large sums of the happenings in a typical basketball game are woefully mis-represented by a box score. An assist and a basket are in reality, merely the culmination of an articulately constructed play with several moving parts that must operate in synch to tilt the never-ending chess match between offense and defense in favor of the offense. Screens, heady basket cuts that render the defense vulnerable, and hockey assists among others are plays omitted by box scores. Evans and Olander both increased Connecticut’s chances of winning on various occasions tonight in a manner that the box score will not account for. R.J. Evans, as always, was the pinnacle of activity defensively, tipping passes from the perimeter, trapping whenever opportunities arose, and fighting over screens with his chiseled frame. Tyler Olander, as previously mentioned, continues to set the most effective, devastating screens on the team. He has seemed to have built something of a rapport with Napier and Boatright – the timing of the high ball screens are precise and there are enough variations within the play to expose over-zealous defenses. As a last line of resort defensively, there are worse options than Olander, somebody who generally understands the relationship between ball and man. However, in certain aspects of the game, R.J. Evans and Tyler Olander are precisely the liabilities the box score paints them to be. For stretches, Tyler Olander and R.J. Evans are serviceable, even effective players, but the non-entities the two are in terms of scoring the basketball sway a dis-proportionate amount of attention to Napier and Boatright to the point that the offense goes to hell. Making matters worse, Olander’s pick and roll defense is regularly a half-step slow, leaving him a common target for opposing offenses. Olander and Evans are players designed to play five to ten minutes a game, but they have been pressed into extra-duty due to the absence of Roscoe Smith, Alex Oriakhi, and Jeremy Lamb. On this night, Olander and Evans combined to play 42 minutes, shooting 1 for 5 from the field and posting three points, four rebounds, zero assists, zero blocks, and zero steals. You can only scapegoat the box score for lack of production for so long – at some point, you have to carry your own weight, and tonight Napier and Boatright shouldered a little too much of it.”

Olander is what I like to call a box score player. He adds value, you just have to dig a little bit deeper to find it. As stated above, he is the best screener on the team – a crucial ingredient of any half-court offense – by a significant margin. The casual fan – or even the die-hard fans, like us – are always going to gravitate towards the spectacular pass or the game-winning shot. I’m guilty of it, and I’m sure everybody else here is as well. But as stated above, sometimes an open shot is just one of the five players on the court reaping the benefits of a killer screen set by a teammate to eliminate a defender from the play. Further, offensive cohesiveness is one of the most commonly neglected aspects of team basketball. As we have discovered in recent years, timing issues between the screener and the ball-handler can submarine a half-court offense like nothing else. Basketball, more than any other sport, is dependent on timing, precision, and instinctive, synchronized movement. Please remember, Tyler Olander has been setting high ball screens for Shabazz Napier for three years. Don’t for a second under-estimate the value of that. Maybe when you’re playing Concordia it doesn’t matter whether Tyler Olander or Phil Nolan or Amida Brimah or the Easter Bunny is laying the wood on the 5’8 D3 guards, but when there are eight minutes left in the game and you need a basket to cut the lead to four, and Russ Smith is draped all over you, trust me, you want the screener to be there when you want, where you want him. It’s not that Phil Nolan or Amida Brimah are incapable of performing those same duties, it’s just that Olander is able to accomplish these tasks in a more perfect, timely fashion.

This element of timing, savvy, and repetition is just as important on the other end of the floor. Phil Nolan and Amida Brimah are undoubtedly more talented defensive players with significantly higher ceilings. But they also may not be quite as sound when it comes to backline rotations, or hedging high ball screens, or weak side help – subtle, sophisticated aspects of the game that take time to grasp, especially when all these topics vary depending on the context of the roster.
Don’t take any of this to mean Olander should be appearing on any preseason all-American ballots. He’s a liability in many aspects of the game, and his lack of improvement over the last couple years may eventually render him obsolete by the end of the year, assuming Nolan and Brimah progress like we hope they will. Just cut the kid some slack, is all I’m saying. He was thrust into the undesirable position a year ago of mixing it up with players physically and athletically superior to him. When Oriakhi and Drummond and Smith bolted for greener pastures, somebody was going to take that bullet, and the fact that it was him shouldn’t obscure the value he provides.

Changing gears, it seems like the inevitable Giffey/Calhoun debate is going to start Friday and reach its climax about six weeks from now. When you examine the statistical output from the two players a year ago, it would seem to be a no-brainer. Before a wrist injury derailed the tail-end of his season, Calhoun averaged nearly 15 points and 6 rebounds a game for about a twelve game stretch, starting with the Louisville game and ending with the Georgetown game. Giffey averaged under 5 points a game on the season, shot just over 40% on five attempts per game, and was under 30% from three. Calhoun seemed to crave the big moment, score effortlessly, and appeared to be blossoming into the next great UConn wing.

I still think all this is true. The tape revealed Calhoun to be the worst defender on the team a year ago, and I think much of that can be attributed to his hip injury. He was extremely stiff in his stance, which contributed to him being the worst one on one defender on the team. His lateral quickness was sub-par in comparison to Giffey and even R.J. Evans. Additionally, he was frequently inattentive when guarding away from the ball – he was constantly victimized by backdoor cuts, and he struggled mightily fighting through off-ball screens. It is unclear how much of Calhoun’s struggles defensively a year ago were due to inexperience, how much of it was due to injury, and how much of it was simply a product of below average defensive instincts. The bottom line, though, is that he must improve on this end of the court, or else Giffey will play crunch time minutes at his expense.

Further evidence that Calhoun was hiding an injury last season may have been the noticeably absent element of explosion Calhoun displayed in high school. He lacked that extra gear attacking the basket, and generally settled for mid-range jump shots. Calhoun was rarely utilized as a breakdown guard last season, partially because of his poor handle, but also in part because he lacked the off-the-bounce quickness his running mates Boatright and Napier possessed.
Let us not forget, though, that as recently as last season, some of our beat writers were declaring Calhoun the best player on the team before he had played a game. And if Calhoun played the entirety of last season, all the while battling a variety of injuries – whether it be the hip or the wrist – his freshman season, which was impressive even without that context, becomes even more impressive. When you can average double figures as a freshman despite an inconsistent jump shot, terrible ball-handling, and a multitude of irritating injuries, the toughness and scoring instincts the kid possesses become even more apparent. And while Calhoun – probably more due to his age than anything – figures to be fourth in the pecking order this season offensively, I do believe he is the best NBA prospect on this team assuming he retains the athleticism he had prior to the hip injury.

Giffey, meanwhile, was the most eye-opening of all the players I evaluated on tape. If it wasn’t clear before that he was our most underrated commodity, his performance this summer on the German national team should have hammered the point home. He was the best defender on the team a year ago, a role player extraordinaire capable of guarding three positions on a nightly basis and even smaller centers in pinches. His pick and roll defense was worthy of being shown on DVD at basketball camps throughout the country, he rarely conceded an inch to stronger players on the interior, and his on-ball defense was nothing short of superb. This is a kid capable of guarding legitimate NBA players and making them work – he’s that good on the defensive side, and if he shows the propensity to knock down shots from the outside like he did this summer, I have to think he’s going to catch the eye of NBA scouts.

Whether it’s in the NBA or somewhere else, Niels Giffey is going to be earning a check to play basketball at this time next year. He is deceptively strong, his rebounding rate was roughly identical to our starting center last season, and there were large portions of the year last season where he was our second best player. The kid oozes toughness, grit, and selflessness. He’s as fundamentally sound a player defensively as you are going to find, and, even if he does not make the leap from a scoring perspective, he’s serviceable enough on that end that we can play him without worrying about spacing issues.
 
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To bring this full circle back to the Calhoun/Giffey debate, both are good enough players that I would seriously consider playing both of them – and going ultra-small – down the stretch against certain opponents. However, if we were to assume Giffey and Calhoun both perform to their standards from a year ago – granted, a fairly unrealistic hypothetical – I would prefer Giffey due to the versatility he provides on the defensive end. He would give UConn the luxury of switching all pick and rolls down the stretch because of his ability to guard power forwards. Whatever the case, I’m expecting a leap in production from one of the two, and whoever it is will play those minutes down the stretch.

Towards the end of last season, Ryan Boatright had his share of critics on this message board. I wasn’t one of them then, and watching the game tape only confirmed my fan hood. Bill Simmons introduced the “Ten Percent Theory” a couple years ago. According to him, every player has 10% of their game that could be considered a weakness. Now, I’m aware many here don’t like Simmons, but whatever your opinion of the guy, I thought this was an interesting theory and one that was applicable to Ryan Boatright. Many of his flaws – occasional poor shot selection, carelessness with the ball, and poor defensive technique – are more noticeable than those of a player like Shabazz Napier, for instance. For all his flaws, though, Boatright’s court vision impressed me when I reviewed the tape more so than it did in live time. He rarely reads a play incorrectly or fails to deliver the ball in a timely fashion to an open teammate. Although most of us prefer Napier to Boatright as a player, Boatright’s ability to occupy defenders and find Napier in his sweet spots unquestionably makes Napier better as a player. You won’t find ten players in the country who can dictate the pace of a game like Boatright can, and although his jump shot isn’t quite as deadly as it needs to be if he wants to fulfill his NBA dreams, it’s more reliable than Kemba’s was at the same stage and he was likely a better player as a sophomore than all but a few guards in UConn history, Kemba and Napier included.

On several occasions last season, Kevin Ollie put the ball in Boatright’s hands at the end of games, trusting he would make a play. If Shabazz Napier is on your team – one of the best guards in the country – and you’re using him as a decoy in the biggest possession of games, that tells you all you need to know about the confidence Ollie has in Boatright as a player. Truth be told, Boatright may be the best one on one player on the team. For as quick as Napier is with the ball, Boatright might be quicker. Additionally, Boatright rarely fails to capitalize on transition opportunities. His tendency to push the ball off misses – even when UConn does not have numbers – is one of the reasons he’s one of the most heady guards in the country, and a smarter player than most realize. As the complementary pieces around him – most notably, Calhoun and Daniels – begin to command more defensive attention, Boatright has the potential to become even more devastating. His mid-range game is good, but it could become better, especially if he adds a floater to his arsenal, a shot every guard below six feet should have in their repertoire.

Defensively, Boatright is a bit of a mixed bag. The tape disclosed some of his fundamental flaws I noticed in live time. He’s often too uptight in his stance – in order to maximize his quickness, he needs to be lower to the ground, otherwise, he’ll continue to be the #1 pick and roll target of opposing teams as he was a season ago. Many of his other shortcomings defensively are simply a product of inattentiveness, or sometimes, over-zealousness. Ball-watching is a brutal habit, and he and Omar Calhoun were the two main culprits on the team a season ago. In many ways, this is an instinctual deficiency that guards who record a lot of steals – Boatright certainly qualifies, here – are prone to acquiring. To Boatright’s, credit, however, the disruption he causes on the defensive end often outweigh any fundamental imperfections. The Syracuse game was the best I have seen Boatright play defensively in a UConn uniform. He was in Carter-Williams’ shirt all night, forcing him to work for every inch of ground, knocking the ball out of bounds, and generally harassing him for the better part of the game. Even in games where Boatright struggled defensively, his tenacity and tendency to play the passing lanes often compensated for any miscues or lapses in concentration.

It’s worth noting, though, that Olander and Boatright were attacked relentlessly on pick and rolls by opposing teams. It was by far the most commonly targeted pick and roll tandem, and it’s easy to see why. Olander lacks lateral quickness, and Boatright is a persistent victim of head fakes and counters designed to run defenders into blindside screens. To be fair, Boatright generally guarded the opposing point guard, and Olander was assigned the opposing center. The point guard/center pick and roll tandem is generally the most frequently utilized in basketball, so in that sense, it should come as no surprise that Boatright and Olander were targeted so often. It still seemed like they were targeted a disproportionate amount, though, and when they were, they often struggled to corral ball-handlers and prevent penetration into the teeth of the defense.

Shabazz Napier was a player I adored even before studying the tape, but after shuffling though hundreds of different plays multiple times, I have come to the conclusion that he may be even more underrated than I originally thought. The kid plays the game at a completely different speed – mentally speaking – than those he shares the floor with. He has what only a handful of basketball players in the world have; a fifth sense. He understands not only what he’s going to do, but what the defense is going to do, before receiving the ball. He is able to convert on contested three pointers – many of them from NBA range – with stunning precision. His ability to converge the defense and process everything – from what the defense is willing to concede, to where his teammates prefer to receive the ball, etc. – in under a second is nothing short of remarkable. Further, his knack for visualizing transition opportunities before anybody else on the court, convincing defenses to shift in his desired direction, and thread the needle to teammates in areas of the floor conducive to scoring while managing to keep his turnover rate down are traits generally associated with NBA veterans. Not since Marcus Williams have we had a guard with his court vision and general mentality, and we have had a lot of damn good guards in that time frame.

I don’t think you can overvalue the impact a great point guard has on a team. Marcus Smart is dominating the preseason first team all-American polls, and I get it – Smart is as imposing a physical specimen at the point guard position college basketball has seen since John Wall, and his upside as an NBA player dwarfs whatever Napier can bring to the table in that regard. To the common fan, he’s infinitely more exciting to watch and aesthetically pleasing, and the same could be said about guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, and Aaron Gordon at different positions. And while I’m sure I’ll be labeled a homer by some when I say this, – which is somewhat fair, since while I’m not consciously biased, the fact that I’ve watched so much UConn basketball in comparison to other teams skews my perspective a bit – there isn’t a player in the country I’d take ahead of Shabazz Napier if I had to start a team. Point guard is the most important position on the floor at any level, but particularly in the college game, where defenses are more prone to being manipulated by savvy, veteran guards, big men are more reliant on guards feeding them in their desired location, and pace is so crucial. The difference between Shabazz Napier and a guy like Andrew Wiggins is this: Andrew Wiggins can get himself a high percentage shot for himself whenever he wants. Shabazz Napier can get a high percentage shot for himself or anybody else on the floor whenever he wants. It’s the reason Trey Burke was the best player in the country last season and it’s the reason Shabazz Napier is going to be, if not the best, the most important player in the country this season. I know one of the reasons I wrote this mammoth preview was to focus on the processes that yield results. Well, Shabazz Napier may not be able to guarantee a positive result, but he can guarantee a positive process. And that’s something I don’t think can be quantified.

If Shabazz Napier is brilliant offensively, then he’s merely really good defensively. Much was the case with Kemba, his magnificence on the offensive end of the court often overshadows his contributions on the other end of the floor. As a lead defender, Napier is well above average, but Kevin Ollie usually shields him from the duties of guarding the opposition’s best guard because of his massive workload offensively. However, as an off-ball defender, Napier is among the most dangerous in the country. He recorded two steals a game a season ago, and unlike Boatright, he rarely guessed incorrectly and paid the price. Guards aren’t generally thought of as help defenders, but Napier’s ability to pickpocket big men – often in timely moments – is uncanny. In a sense, Ollie often liked using Napier as something of a free safety within the UConn defense, sticking him on the opposition’s worst outside shooter and allowing him to roam the passing lanes. The biggest leap Napier has made defensively from his freshman year to his junior year is his discipline. I am sure we all remember the term “reach-around-bandit” that was hatched his freshman season. He was coined as such because of a couple bad habits, specifically, taking unnecessary risks and paying the price in the form of unsuccessfully attempting to knock the ball loose from behind after his man had beaten him off the dribble. Last year’s Napier took no such unnecessarily gambles, instead solidifying himself as a disciplined defender capable of creating turnovers at opportune times.
 
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Long story short, there is a lot of Chris Paul in Shabazz Napier. I doubt he’ll turn out to be nearly as good, but many of Paul’s skills – deadly shooting, pulsating control of the game at practically every moment, superlative court vision, speed with the ball, striking quickness, an unteachable awareness of when to involve others and when to take over, and the ever crucial necessity to be a step ahead of the defense – seem to have been adopted seamlessly by Napier. I don’t think there is a player in the country with better basketball intellect, and when you have the corresponding talent, that’s when you have a special player.

One last note on the Napier/Boatright/Calhoun trio: the swagger, toughness, and grit all three seem to have been born with is what leads me to believe this could be a special season. They’re all slightly different (Boatright and Calhoun love talking to the media about how good they are, Napier is a little more reserved), but the confidence – some might say cockiness – is equally transparent in all of them. To some degree, they all think they’re a little bit better than they actually are, and I think that actually leads to them being better than they may have been otherwise. If that doesn’t make sense, think of it this way: I think Niels Giffey would be a better player if we could pour a little bit of Boatright in him. When you have the mentality that you’re the best player in the gym every time you step on the court, you’re inevitably going to out-perform your capabilities. And if you think for a second that these guys expect anything less than a national championship coming their way this season, you just don’t know them well enough. Shabazz didn’t come back to win the AAC. Boatright didn’t come back to get to the sweet 16. These guys genuinely think they’re good enough to win the national championship, and that right there is half the battle.

There is only one player in the top six of our rotation who I have not yet analyzed, and his name is DeAndre Daniels. DeAndre Daniels can be most aptly categorized by the following words: match-up nightmare. He’s the guy that can take this from a really good season to a special season. He’s the guy that has the ability to grab the entire country by the and alert them that UConn is not going anywhere. He’s the guy…that is probably going to determine how good we are this season. We know what we’re getting from Shabazz, we know what we’re getting from Boatright, and we know what we’re getting from the role players – Giffey, Kromah, Olander, etc. What we need to find out is whether DeAndre Daniels is going to expand slightly on what he was a year ago – a relatively efficient 12 and 6 guy – or whether he’s going to blow up like he did at the end of the season.

The similarities between DeAndre Daniels, and his prototype at the next level, Jeff Green, have become glaringly apparent. Much like Green, Daniels was, without question, the most agonizing player to watch on last year’s roster for the first 26 games of the season. He would string together spades of dominance, exhibiting his full array of offensive moves, and then fading into the background when the possessions increased in significance. In the case of DeAndre Daniels, it’s as much a matter of mindset as it is talent. My biggest fear with Daniels is that the injuries to Calhoun and Napier in the final four games of last season forced him into aggression, and that he will revert back to what he was for the first 26 games when not forced to carry as much of a workload offensively. I tend to take the optimistic viewpoint, though, and believe the light bulb went on for Daniels in the latter stages of the season a year ago, and much like Kemba at the end of his sophomore season, he will carry the momentum into his junior year.

There’s not much to report on Daniels from the tape, mostly because it would be a futile exercise to evaluate games from December and January and project forward when he was evidently a drastically different player towards the end of the season. One thing worth mentioning is that while Daniels was largely a liability on the boards early in the season, – I distinctly remember the opening possession of the Marquette game, where he was directly responsible for three offensive rebounds – by the end of the year he was rebounding at a high clip, which not coincidently coincided with UConn improving on the glass as a team. Although Daniels can be a bit methodical offensively, his ability to shoot over smaller defenders with ease and blow by bigger defenders erases any concerns regarding his quickness with the ball.

Defensively, Daniels grades out as above average. He’s not quite as impressive as Giffey – primarily because he lacks the lateral quickness – but his long wingspan and improved understanding of defensive positioning paid dividends towards the end of the season, as he recorded 13 blocks in his final four games. The most value Daniels will provide defensively this season will be on the boards. If he can rebound at a similar rate to what he did at the end of last season, it will go a long way towards closing possessions and limiting second chance opportunities.

The newcomers – Brimah, Facey, Kromah, and Samuel – all appear to have one thing in common: defense. I did not get the chance to watch either of the exhibitions, and obviously none of them have played a game in a Husky uniform, so it’s difficult for me to do anything but offer an educated guess on what to expect (and everybody has already done that, so there is no sense in me rehashing the obvious). It’s difficult for me to envision a scenario where Samuel gets much time this season, simply because of how loaded the backcourt is, with Napier and Boatright guaranteed to play 30-35 minutes a night, and Calhoun and Kromah vying for the remaining minutes at the two. If there is one capacity he could be utilized effectively in, it’s as a defensive specialist who plays in 2-3 minute stretches per half solely to irritate the hell out of the opposition’s point guard. Aside from Samuel, I would not be surprised in the least bit if the other three were playing major minutes by the end of the season. But until we see them in real games, against real players (granted, Kromah is a proven commodity who I’m sure is a safe bet to produce), there is simply no way of knowing what they’ll be asked to do, or rather, what their capabilities will allow them to do.

Then there is Phil Nolan, the raw power forward who looked to be a bit of a project early last season before blossoming into a serviceable center who could grab a few rebounds, protect the rim, and give you some fouls towards the end of the year. Of all the big men currently on the roster, I have the highest hopes for him, simply because he’s already spent a year in the system, added some muscle, and more than anything, learned what it takes to make an impact in big time college basketball. As long as he blocks a couple shots, rebounds competently for his position, and provides some decent post defense, all I ask from him on the offensive end is that he sets good screens and crashes the offensive glass. After last season, the bar has not been set too high for UConn big men, and if they aren’t able to reach it, we may end up with Giffey playing center again. Another guy I haven’t mentioned is Leon Tolksdorf, who just seems to have too much ground to make up in the rotation at this point. I’m guessing his destiny with this program is as a stretch four, ala Daniels, but I don’t expect that to culminate for another year.

All in all, this team is going to forge its identity on the offensive side of the floor. With well above average talent and skill at four of the five positions, I don’t think I’m off base in thinking it would be a disappointment if we’re not top 15 in offensive efficiency next season. Relative to seasons past – like 2010, 2012, and even 2011 to some extent – where our starting lineups consisted of at least two players incapable of creating any sort of offense or scoring more than five feet from the hoop, this team is going to be like floor spacing paradise. Four of our five starters are threats from behind the arch, all four of Napier, Boatright, Calhoun, and Daniels are capable of taking their defenders off the dribble, and possibly most importantly, we have two players – Napier and Boatright – who possess elite ball-handling skills and considerable passing ability. I expect this group to suffocate teams with air-tight ball movement, razor-quick dribble penetration, and potent three point shooting. In transition, they will be even more lethal, with five above average athletes on the court at a time, two renowned fast break architects, and general team speed.

Last season, the stars never quite aligned for this team. At the beginning of the season, Boatright and Napier were depended on to create almost every possession, and any complementary contributions were pleasant surprises. It was a two man show and everybody knew it. By the time Calhoun had arrived, Boatright had spun into a terrible funk, and once Boatright managed to collect himself, Calhoun was hampered by a wrist injury and was only a shell of himself. Daniels didn’t break out until game 27, when Napier was either gutting it out at 70% or sidelined, Calhoun was still hurt, and Boatright was in the midst of a terrible shooting slump. We were never able to witness all four of our big guns healthy and playing well at the same time, and despite this, we were still a Junior Cadougan heave and a double overtime meltdown away from winning the whole damn conference.

This season, with everybody healthy, and at the peak of their powers, the sky is the limit. The most sensible calibration of this offense would be one where Daniels leads in scoring, Napier and Boatright are more efficient versions of their 2012-13 selves, and one of Calhoun or Giffey makes the leap and emerges as a formidable option. Even in a worst case scenario, we have four guys capable of leading the team in scoring on any given night. Best case scenario, and everyone embraces their roles, Boatright is a scorer/defensive stopper, Napier is a distributor/closer, Daniels scores and rebounds, and Giffey and Calhoun space the floor. The bottom line is this is a team designed to attack from a multitude of angles and in a variety of geometric formations. On the other end, it’s all about retaining the principals of championship team defense that were so prevalent in the 2011 run. It’s all about forcing teams into side to side movement, making them penetrate multiple layers of the defense, and dis-allowing penetration through sound and precise collaborative movement. My gut tells me this team is a little too small to rank among the best defenses in the country in terms of field goal percentage against, but they can compensate for that by creating turnovers with their team quickness and experience.

To finally put a bow on this mammoth of a post, I view this teams ceiling as a rich man’s version of the 2011-12 Missouri team that was stunned in the round of 64, which is to say they will be similarly efficient offensively and a fair bit better defensively. Do I think this team can win the national championship? Gun to my head, no. There are too many star-studded rosters this season, and I think even if Nolan and the rest of the frontcourt display marked improvements, we’re a little too small up front to trade blows with the Kentucky’s and Arizona’s of the world. That being said, I didn’t think the 2011 team could win the national championship, either, and all it took for them to cut down the nets was a few breaks and a weak field. Whatever the case, this is going to be a wildly entertaining season, we’re going to win a ton of games, and by the time it’s over, the image of UConn basketball will have been restored on the national level, Kevin Ollie will be a household name, and the players that were so intensely loyal to this program in the most dire of circumstances a year ago will be revered in the same regard as all the UConn greats before them. Go Huskies and if I’m still sober by the time Friday night rolls around, I’ll try to write a game recap if you aren’t sick of me by now.
 
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Great post (I'm 1/4 way through)..................not for mobile phones though.

A+ to all Yarders who read Champs book in one sitting.
 
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About how I felt after reading that. Great job.

 

geordi

Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel
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Man!!! And I thought I had a slow period at work.
 
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I haven't read much of this other than the first few sentences but your early presentation and humility are great. There are many people that mock writers that fall outside of mainstream media types (CBS, ESPN ect...) when it comes to college basketball then turnaround and are critical of mainstream writers that miss some of the important substantive viewpoints relating to UConn. It makes for perfect hypocrisy.

It is fun reading a fans perspective (UConn or any other teams fans for that matter) that brings a keen sense of objectivity coupled with a heart that bleeds blue. When I read many of the mainstream writers analysis on the game (hoops), teams and individual players....most of the time I go away with the impression that these guys ineptness knows no bounds. Katz has paid his dues to some degree though and I think he is a decent human being (coming from me not sure what that means haha :))

Someone should start a post on who everyone thinks will make the Final4. If someone nails 3 out of 4 maybe a prize of some sort can be in order.

Best to all BY'ers.
 

UChusky916

Making the board a little less insufferable
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Tremendous post that was well worth the time it took to read. I echo a lot of your sentiments. Thanks.
 

Rico444

In the mix for six
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Great post. This makes me even more pumped up for the upcoming season.
 
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Superb post. I read the entire thing in one sitting and you are the reason I've gotten nothing done in my first hour at work. This season is the beginning of a new era for UCONN basketball.
 
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outstanding work, one of the best posts I've ever read on here
 
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great stuff , it's worth noting Napier will be more explosive since he won't be nursing his injured foot. could turn into a class defender, something we saw glimpses of in 2011. Giffey as a floor spacer is huge, allows Daniels to operate in the midrange/high post .
 
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Great job bro. With regards to the Samuel analysis. The new rules this year are going to put a premium on depth in general... especially in the back court (emphasis added). There will be a handful of games where we are nickle & dimed. Most likely against Louisville, Memphis & Florida (teams with elite guard play). We need to split with Ville and Memphis and beat Florida to lay the foundation for a Regional Final @ MSG (compete for a 1 or 2 seed). Samuel will more probably than not be called upon to log some prime time minutes on 1 or more occasions in these games. He will have to deliver at the free throw line, defending and distributing with minimal TO's. TS is just a Frosh. and he is still learning and adapting to the speed of the game especially on the offensive end of the court. Ollie likes him quite a bit.

The growth of Brimah (and Facey to a lesser degree) throughout the course of the season is the key ingredient to any National Championship aspirations. College hoops seasons are marathons not sprints. I remember watching UConn get destroyed @ MSG against St. John's on 2/10/11. Just a few weeks later they were priming themselves for a National Championship run. My hope is Brimah develops the skill set to become very serviceable on the boards by early February. The cumulative effect of Brimah's interior presence and consistent rebounding from Nolan/Brimah/Facey will have to at least be analogous to the 8.7 boards that AO gave us in 2010-11. IF we get that UConn can win it all or at least get to Dallas.

JMHO....

PS

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320760142

Missouri only went 6 deep which turned out to be their downfall. There are similarities but with Bowers injured Ratliffe was their only 5. UConn has more depth. That Missouri team was dangerous though.
 
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KO may want to take advantage of your tape breakdown skills, Champs!
 
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Holy Mary, Jesus, and Joseph, and the carpenters! I just had a climax!

Seriously, have you thought about seeking a job at ESPN? That may change my perceptions of most of these so-called ESPN expert writers!
 
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