Tennessee No Longer a Top 25 Team

[HardHatGuy#2]

The only reason that they were undefeated longer than Notre Dame was because they played UConn later in the year than Notre Dame.

Evidence for Notre Dame to be ranked above South Carolina:

1. Their only loss was to UConn at Gampel by 10, whereas South Carolina lost by 12 at home.
2. Notre Dame played UConn more competitively than S. Carolina. It was a 2-point game at the half.
3. Notre Dame was without Brianna Turner for the entire game. A'ja Wilson was available for half the game.
4. Notre Dame is ranked higher in Sagarin, Massey, RPI, and NPI (Nolan Power index).
5. It has been a longer time since Notre Dame has lost a game (16 game winning streak).
6. Notre Dame has played a tougher schedule.

I like the pragmatic approach, but it just doesn't work for me. I will take South Carolina over ND head-to-head. ND played their best game of the year against us, and needed a miraculous shooting game to stay close. SC played their worst game of the year against us. I don't think that you can use either of those games to judge the teams. The conferences aren't much to go on, either: the ACC is weak-as-water this year, and the SEC teams just keep beating each other up (remember the old Big East issues with this on the Men's side?) such that nobody really knows how good any of them are.

I'll go by the sniff test. I wasn't worried in the slightest going into the ND game, but I was concerned about South Carolina. ND may have a player (Turner) or two (Cable) who could make our team, but neither would crack the Starting 5. South Carolina has two that could start (Wilson and Mitchell) and two who could come off the bench (Coates and Omovbioh), with one REALLY green wild card (Cuevas, who played her best game of the year against us).

I think South Carolina is by far the more dangerous team. My #1 seeds are (in order): UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Baylor. Yeah, I know...that's the way they are in the polls...but it is what I THINK. Of course, if Ohio State beats of Maryland for the Big 10 championship...

 

[Fiftyish]

Sue Bird was one of the color announcers for the UT-TAM game. Found this on this piece of <>€£% Twitter page.

Feb 7
Maria M. Cornelius ‏@mmcornelius
May I never have to listen to this broadcast crew again. Chipmunks would be better.

I understand her displeasure with Sue's spot on analysis since MMC is a shill for the Lady Vols. Sue correctly pointed out that the Vols body language late in the game indicated that they had already lost. She also said that unforced turnovers do not allow teams to win consistently. Sue, in my opinion, was not hyper critical but rather was pointing out the obvious. The Vols lack great chemistry and great coaching.

 

[Replicant]

???? Nuke????

Well there's that definition, which may be apt...but I was going with their position having been completely overrun, facing imminent destruction and calling for all available air support to drop ordinance directly on their position.

 

[bballnut90]

I like the pragmatic approach, but it just doesn't work for me. I will take South Carolina over ND head-to-head. ND played their best game of the year against us, and needed a miraculous shooting game to stay close. SC played their worst game of the year against us. I don't think that you can use either of those games to judge the teams. The conferences aren't much to go on, either: the ACC is weak-as-water this year, and the SEC teams just keep beating each other up (remember the old Big East issues with this on the Men's side?) such that nobody really knows how good any of them are.

I'll go by the sniff test. I wasn't worried in the slightest going into the ND game, but I was concerned about South Carolina. ND may have a player (Turner) or two (Cable) who could make our team, but neither would crack the Starting 5. South Carolina has two that could start (Wilson and Mitchell) and two who could come off the bench (Coates and Omovbioh), with one REALLY green wild card (Cuevas, who played her best game of the year against us).

I think South Carolina is by far the more dangerous team. My #1 seeds are (in order): UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Baylor. Yeah, I know...that's the way they are in the polls...but it is what I THINK. Of course, if Ohio State beats of Maryland for the Big 10 championship...

ND shot well but played far from their best game of the year against Connecticut. You have to remember, they played without Brianna Turner who is their top scorer, rebounder and blocker. She is really their only shot blocking presence and significantly limited Stewart in the title game a year ago.

IMO, ND should absolutely be #2 over South Carolina, they run a significantly better offense, shoot lights out, and consistently make plays late in games to step up and close it out. South Carolina has posts, but Tuck and Stewart are both clearly better players than Coates/Wilson, evidenced last night. SC lacks the offensive flow and firepower from the perimeter to compete with Connecticut. Bottle up Mitchell and there is virtually no perimeter threats besides a couple of streaky shooters who can nail open looks. Notre Dame is also undefeated outside of their loss to UCONN and has many good wins on its resume.

Notre Dame has a better coach and significantly better guard play. They played UCONN tight for most of the game at Storrs without their best player. South Carolina was dominated in all areas last night in front of a huge home crowd despite "only" losing by 12. They never posed any threat to Connecticut. Both teams can be streaky, but I think Notre Dame is the clear #2 team in the country, just like they've been for the last several years.

 

[bballnut90]

Maybe your data are out of date. Click on the ranking name to visit the site.

Sagarin has Notre Dame ranked 2nd and South Carolina 5th.
Massey has Notre Dame ranked 2nd and South Carolina 3rd.
RPI has Notre Dame ranked 1st and South Carolina 3rd.
NPI has Notre Dame ranked 2nd and South Carolina 4th.
Sonny Moore has Notre Dame ranked 2nd and South Carolina 5th.

If you are referring to the Coaches' Poll, that it the point of contention that started the argument because it goes against all of the computer ranking systems (and I would argue common sense).

If you are referring to the AP Poll, that was published before last night's loss to the Huskies.

Even if they don't stack up as well on paper, you have to consider coaching, leadership, team chemistry and experience. If there's one thing I've learned in the last few years, it's to not underestimate Notre Dame:

2013: They lose a slew of great seniors and only return streaky guard McBride and All-American Skylar Diggins. They go 35-2, win 3 games against UCONN and have one of their best seasons ever.

2014: They lose Diggins and everyone thinks they're a 5-7 team. They go an amazing 37-1, losing only to UCONN in the title game.

2015: People again think they are a 4-5 team without Achonwa and McBride. They bulldoze the ACC and lose just 3 games (two to UCONN) and again, clearly establish themselves as the 2nd best team in country.

2016: They lose Loyd and people think they are anywhere from 3-5 preseason. They then lose Patberg and Taya Reimer in the early part of the season. They have gone 23-1 thus far against a brutal schedule with their only loss to UCONN.

Over the 4 years they've won 20+ games separated by single digits and lost 0. Until I see them lose to a team other than UCONN (which has happened a total of 2 times in the last 4 seasons), they are the #2 team in my book.

 

[EricSD]

Sue Bird was one of the color announcers for the UT-TAM game. Found this on this piece of <>€£% Twitter page.

Feb 7
Maria M. Cornelius ‏@mmcornelius
May I never have to listen to this broadcast crew again. Chipmunks would be better.

She's one reason I absolutely cannot stand Tennessee, and their rabid fan base who loves her are equally as idiotic and ultra deserving of the long slow slide into oblivion that the once proud program is experiencing...

 

[01Neaggrad02]

I just do not understand the Tennessee thing.
Mercedes Russell was the #1 player out of high school. Diamond DeShields was #3 that year and many think she could have been #1... Jordan Reynolds was a top 50 pick as well....
Jaime Nared was a top 10 pick Alexa Middleton a top 30 pick...

They have talent... a lot of talent. What is the issue?

 

[bballnut90]

I just do not understand the Tennessee thing.
Mercedes Russell was the #1 player out of high school. Diamond DeShields was #3 that year and many think she could have been #1... Jordan Reynolds was a top 50 pick as well....
Jaime Nared was a top 10 pick Alexa Middleton a top 30 pick...

They have talent... a lot of talent. What is the issue?

Chemistry, no offensive system, and players don't seem to be buying into Holly as a coach.

 

[Replicant]

I just do not understand the Tennessee thing.
Mercedes Russell was the #1 player out of high school. Diamond DeShields was #3 that year and many think she could have been #1... Jordan Reynolds was a top 50 pick as well....
Jaime Nared was a top 10 pick Alexa Middleton a top 30 pick...

They have talent... a lot of talent. What is the issue?

There could be no better invalidation of the common refrain that UConn wins all the time because UConn gets all the best players, than what the state of Lady Vol bball provides at present. Turns out you gotta have good/great players to win consistently, but you've gotta have great coaching and a dynamic/dynastic culture to win ALL the time!

 

[Orangutan]

Over the 4 years they've won 20+ games separated by single digits and lost 0. Until I see them lose to a team other than UCONN (which has happened a total of 2 times in the last 4 seasons), they are the #2 team in my book.

I believe ND's win streak in single-digit or OT games is now at 26. Put that in contrast to Tennessee who consistently find a way to throw away games from wining positions. I actually think that Tennessee *is* one of the 25 best teams in the nation but it doesn't look like they believe it. Seems like Tennessee always expects the other shoe to drop. Even if ND is down late on the road (as at Duke and Louisville) players like Maddie Cable and Lindsay Allen expect to win, and they make it happen.

 

[Orangutan]

I like the pragmatic approach, but it just doesn't work for me. I will take South Carolina over ND head-to-head. ND played their best game of the year against us, and needed a miraculous shooting game to stay close. SC played their worst game of the year against us. I don't think that you can use either of those games to judge the teams. The conferences aren't much to go on, either: the ACC is weak-as-water this year, and the SEC teams just keep beating each other up (remember the old Big East issues with this on the Men's side?) such that nobody really knows how good any of them are.

I'll go by the sniff test. I wasn't worried in the slightest going into the ND game, but I was concerned about South Carolina. ND may have a player (Turner) or two (Cable) who could make our team, but neither would crack the Starting 5. South Carolina has two that could start (Wilson and Mitchell) and two who could come off the bench (Coates and Omovbioh), with one REALLY green wild card (Cuevas, who played her best game of the year against us).

I think South Carolina is by far the more dangerous team. My #1 seeds are (in order): UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Baylor. Yeah, I know...that's the way they are in the polls...but it is what I THINK. Of course, if Ohio State beats of Maryland for the Big 10 championship...

ND did not play their best game of the year against UConn. ND had 1.03 offensive points per possession against UConn and allowed 1.18. For the season ND, averages 1.07 O-PPP and allows .80 D-PPP. The offensive mark from the UConn game is fine, you're naturally going to be under your average offensively against perhaps the nation's best defense. Allowing 1.18 points per possession is atrocious, though. The reason ND shot the lights out and still lost was because they got torched defensively.

What ND and SC players might be able to crack UConn's rotation really has nothing to do with anything, but...how could Wilson start for UConn? I would not bench Tuck for Wilson. I mean, she's fantastic and wouldn't be out of place based on talent level but neither would Turner. I'm taking Tuck over both of them at this point. Also...UConn's unsettled position is the 3. I think Cable would start for UConn. Cuevas (2 pts, 1-7 FG on Mon.) is a wild card? What does that make Marina Mabrey and Arike Ogunbowale?

Honestly, I don't have an issue with the conclusion (SC is better than ND). But I don't agree with a lot of your logic. Reminds me of last year when I was told that SCar was better because they had more WNBA-level talents, which 1) had nothing to do with anything and 2) counted players like Ibiam and Welch as WNBA-level talents when ultimately neither of them ended up making it out of training camp. Some people are really eager to buy into the idea of South Carolina's supposedly superior talent.

 

[Uhuru]

She's one reason I absolutely cannot stand Tennessee, and their rabid fan base who loves her are equally as idiotic and ultra deserving of the long slow slide into oblivion that the once proud program is experiencing...

M. Cornelius: Everything is fine on Rocky Top. Tenn is still the premier program in WCBB.

Tariq Aziz: There are no American troops advancing on Baghdad.

 

[EricSD]

I just do not understand the Tennessee thing.
Mercedes Russell was the #1 player out of high school. Diamond DeShields was #3 that year and many think she could have been #1... Jordan Reynolds was a top 50 pick as well....
Jaime Nared was a top 10 pick Alexa Middleton a top 30 pick...

They have talent... a lot of talent. What is the issue?

You forgot about Cooper, who many Tenn fans feel was one of the top 5 players in her class, and far and away the best PG in the class.

 

[MilfordHusky]

You forgot about Cooper, who many Tenn fans feel was one of the top 5 players in her class, and far and away the best PG in the class.

I don't know if getting Cooper cost Tenn a chance at Crystal Dangerfield, but I wouldn't trade Crystal for anyone (unless Moriah could get extended eligibility).

 

[EricSD]

Chemistry, no offensive system, and players don't seem to be buying into Holly as a coach.

I'm curious what chemistry issues you are referring to. Some on this board have access to people who are often "in the know" and was told that last year there were 3 players identified as having "me me me" attitude problems. One player transferred, one became eligible this year and one is a freshman. Or are there other chemistry issues you are referring to?

 

[VAMike23]

M. Cornelius: Everything is fine on Rocky Top. Tenn is still the premier program in WCBB.

Tariq Aziz: There are no American troops advancing on Baghdad.

 

[EricSD]

I just do not understand the Tennessee thing.
Mercedes Russell was the #1 player out of high school. Diamond DeShields was #3 that year and many think she could have been #1... Jordan Reynolds was a top 50 pick as well....
Jaime Nared was a top 10 pick Alexa Middleton a top 30 pick...

They have talent... a lot of talent. What is the issue?

More than even what you said...

1. Graves - top 5, Carter - top 20, Jones - top 30
2. Russell - #1, Deshields #2, Tucker - top 10, Reynolds - top 40
   
3. Nared - top 5, Middleton - top 30
4. Cooper - top 10, Jackson - top 50

So bottom line on their current roster, they have 11 players all ranked in the top 50. 4 were top 5, 1 was top 10, 1 top 20 and 2 top 30. I bet we can count on 1 hand the number of teams who currently have on their roster at least 5 kids who were ranked in the top 10.

Add to that - of the 5 top 10 kids they have, 2 of them were #1 or 2 in their classes. Next year, even UCONN won't have that kind of talent...

 

[Rixxx]

They do have to have better than a .500 record to get a WNIT invite, right? Seriously though, they lost to Kentucky by 1, Mississippi State by 2, and in OT to aTm. As much as I revel in their fans' collective misery, they easily could have won those games. If they had, they'd in the top 15 and everyone talking about them as a 3 seed...

They are a hot mess but a couple of other bounces, and they 'd be 17-6 instead of 14-9...

Or, earlier in the year when they were 6-2, they could have easily been 2-6, projected 10-13.

 

[pinotbear]

M. Cornelius: Everything is fine on Rocky Top. Tenn is still the premier program in WCBB.

Tariq Aziz: There are no American troops advancing on Baghdad.

So, Baghdad Bob is now Knoxville Nancy

 

[EricSD]

Or, earlier in the year when they were 6-2, they could have easily been 2-6, projected 10-13.

Good point. they escaped several games early on they should probably have lost. I guess they are about where they should be...

 

[Gus Mahler]

Good point. they escaped several games early on they should probably have lost. I guess they are about where they should be...

"You are what your record says you are." [Bill Parcells?]

 

[bballnut90]

I'm curious what chemistry issues you are referring to. Some on this board have access to people who are often "in the know" and was told that last year there were 3 players identified as having "me me me" attitude problems. One player transferred, one became eligible this year and one is a freshman. Or are there other chemistry issues you are referring to?

Just from watching them it's not hard to see they have on court chemistry issues. I have no info about off the court issues, but when they play, there is zero ball movement, players take horrible shots, lazy efforts/lack of hustle, poor body language, etc. Holly has complained after losses that players aren't listening to her, etc.

 

[cbraarj]

"You are what your record says you are." [Bill Parcells?]

Love that quote Gus!