Teams from top 6 conferences, divided (roughly) into quartiles

[Plebe]

The table below shows the 75 teams from the top 6 conferences grouped into four rough quartiles, according to Massey rating:

To me it's interesting to see how certain conferences are over- or underrepresented in certain quartiles. The Big 12, for example, has 6 of its 10 teams in the 2nd quartile, while the Pac-12 has 5 of its 12 teams in the top quartile.

On a sobering note, all but 3 AAC teams—UConn (1), UCF (39), USF (58)—would be in the bottom quartile.

 

[SECbbfan24]

LSU continues to disappoint me

 

[triaddukefan]

We're #55 !!

 

[ochoopsfan]

We're #55 !!


View attachment 37693

Hanging out with the Tar Heels.

 

[oldude]

Hanging out with the Tar Heels.

Ouch!

 

[Plebe]

We're #55 !!

Ha, don't let anyone tell you Duke isn't ranked!

 

[mbr33ct]

Hanging out with the Tar Heels.

I rather hang out with Tar Heels but it's BC that's disturbing...wait, who am I to throw stones here, I follow the AAC conference.

 

[Plebe]

To show some love for the underdogs, here are the teams (other than UConn) from non-power-5 conferences that are ranked in the Massey top 50:

• Marquette (11)
• Gonzaga (14)
• DePaul (16)
• South Dakota (27)
• Central Michigan (29)
• Drake (30)
• South Dakota St (36)
• UCF (39)
• Villanova (42)
• Ohio (43)
• New Mexico (44)
• Buffalo (46)
• Butler (47)
• Green Bay (49)

That's 4 teams from the Big East, 3 from the MAC, 2 from the Summit League, and one each from West Coast Conference, Missouri Valley, AAC, Mountain West, and Horizon.

Interesting that no fewer than 11 of the 25 teams in the 26-50 range are from non-P5 conferences. (And a 12th, UAB from Conference USA, just missed at #51.)

 

[LoTrader]

As we enter conference play, the ACC & PAC-12 teams will start beating up on each other and the overall collective rankings of these two conferences will drop.

 

[Plebe]

As we enter conference play, the ACC & PAC-12 teams will start beating up on each other and the overall collective rankings of these two conferences will drop.

Mmm, really? I'm not sure it works that way.

 

[LoTrader]

Mmm, really? I'm not sure it works that way.

If Maryland can have a #8 ranking in the Massey ratings, without playing anyone significant.....

I agree it shouldn't work that way.....but I believe it will.

 

[Plebe]

If Maryland can have a #8 ranking in the Massey ratings, without playing anyone significant.....

The Massey ratings account for strength of schedule and margin of victory. If a team plays a weaker schedule but their margins of victory are accordingly wider, why should Massey rank them any lower?

This is how several teams with a loss (Notre Dame, Miss State, Oregon, Stanford) are still ahead of Maryland, and also how undefeated teams like Virginia Tech, Utah, and Ohio are well behind Maryland.

 

[Plebe]

I agree it shouldn't work that way.....but I believe it will.

It doesn't. Once conference play begins, the intraconference "beating up on each other" has no effect per se on the collective conference rankings because, by definition, all conference standings add up to an even number of wins and losses.

 

[Fightin Choke]

As we enter conference play, the ACC & PAC-12 teams will start beating up on each other and the overall collective rankings of these two conferences will drop.

No, that's not how it works. A few years ago when Mike Neighbors was at Washington, he made a presentation to PAC12 teams explaining how to improve the conference's RPI (LINK). The idea is to schedule appropriate to a team's ability, playing teams that you can beat, but not scheduling too many hard games and not too many cupcakes: "He says the sweet spot is for teams to get eight or nine wins during the non-conference portion of their schedule. As such, a schedule for Stanford, a consistent national powerhouse, would ideally look differently than an up-and-coming team trying to get into the NCAA tournament in the first place."

Then once you enter the conference portion of your schedule, your conference RPI will stay high because everyone in the conference will boost other teams' RPI. Another way to raise your conference RPI is to play more conference games (assuming that your conference has a good RPI). If two conferences had identical very good conference RPI's heading into the conference portion of their schedule, but one conference had 18 conference games but the other only 16, the conference with 18 games would have a higher RPI at the end of the season.

 

[Fightin Choke]

It doesn't. Once conference play begins, the intraconference "beating up on each other" has no effect per se on the collective conference rankings because, by definition, all conference standings add up to an even number of wins and losses.

The only negative effect would be that the teams from tougher conferences would typically suffer more losses in conference, but if the plight of the Terps has taught us anything, it's that the NCAA seeding committee penalizes weak schedules, so you might as well challenge yourself. For more evidence, see Baylor 2017 (ranked second, but only a 2-seed).

 

[Plebe]

The only negative effect would be that the teams from tougher conferences would typically suffer more losses in conference, but if the plight of the Terps has taught us anything, it's that the NCAA seeding committee penalizes weak schedules, so you might as well challenge yourself. For more evidence, see Baylor 2017 (ranked second, but only a 2-seed).

But my point is that collective conferences rankings equally weight every team's results, from best to worst. So any negative impact of one team's conference loss is inherently counterbalanced by another team's win, thus nullifying the effect on overall conference ranking.

 

[Fightin Choke]

But my point is that collective conferences rankings equally weight every team's results, from best to worst. So any negative impact of one team's conference loss is inherently counterbalanced by another team's win, thus nullifying the effect on overall conference ranking.

I understood your post and was attempting to support it. An undefeated Maryland or 2-loss Baylor may 'lose' a 1-seed to a 3-loss PAC 12 team or a 2-loss ACC team.

 

[Plebe]

I understood your post and was attempting to support it. An undefeated Maryland or 2-loss Baylor may 'lose' a 1-seed to a 3-loss PAC 12 team or a 2-loss ACC team.

You're absolutely right. One question is the impact of a tough conference schedule on the top teams. Another question is the impact of a tough conference schedule on "collective conference rankings," which was the topic of the message I was responding to.

 

[LoTrader]

Thanks Plebe and Fightin choke. I know I will generate discussion when I make these claims. I will be watching this closely as the regular season begins. Thanks for both of your responses.

 

[Plebe]

LSU continues to disappoint me

Just think: It could be worse. You could be Ole Miss or Florida.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Just think: It could be worse. You could be Ole Miss or Florida.

Maybe one of them could throw bank at Nikki Fargas so she could finally leave.

Nikki just doesn't have the qualities needed to run a college program. She pisses players and assistants off and has recruited poorly. I was excited by her short stint at UCLA but it was all shine with no substance.

I honestly don't understand how Florida is this bad

 

[Reypl21]

Maybe one of them could throw bank at Nikki Fargas so she could finally leave.

Nikki just doesn't have the qualities needed to run a college program. She pisses players and assistants off and has recruited poorly. I was excited by her short stint at UCLA but it was all shine with no substance.

I honestly don't understand how Florida is this bad

Didn't LSU hire Michaela Mabrey as the recruiting coordinator or some type of position like that? Maybe she had to get some inexperienced young-ins because she has a bad rep that would scare away others.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Didn't LSU hire Michaela Mabrey as the recruiting coordinator or some type of position like that? Maybe she had to get some inexperienced young-ins because she has a bad rep that would scare away others.

Yes. She doesn't have the best rep right now on the recruiting scene for a few different reasons, she has a hard time relating to these kids based on the experience of some of her former players. Maybe she thinks young blood will help.

I like having Mabrey around the program, she is smart and is actually hard working. That said I don't expect it so save Nikki's job.

The Demoss situation IMO speaks volumes. It was very sudden and she announced she was stepping down at LSU

Here is what she said.

“It was time to take care of some other things in life,” DeMoss said. “I’ve been coaching for 41 years. After that long, you need to do something else or do nothing at all."

Months later she ends up at Vanderbilt lol, add in the fact Chloe Jackson bolted for Baylor. Word around the street is LSU's current player Ayanna Mitchell will look elsewhere at the end of the season as a grad transfer...

Its not even close to the same program it once was under Pokey Chatman, we just don't have the talent. I remember a couple years ago when Geno came to BR to play LSU, he even made the same comment in his press conference after the game.

 

[Plebe]

Yes. She doesn't have the best rep right now on the recruiting scene for a few different reasons, she has a hard time relating to these kids based on the experience of some of her former players. Maybe she thinks young blood will help.

I like having Mabrey around the program, she is smart and is actually hard working. That said I don't expect it so save Nikki's job.

The Demoss situation IMO speaks volumes. It was very sudden and she announced she was stepping down at LSU

Here is what she said.

“It was time to take care of some other things in life,” DeMoss said. “I’ve been coaching for 41 years. After that long, you need to do something else or do nothing at all."

Months later she ends up at Vanderbilt lol, add in the fact Chloe Jackson bolted for Baylor. Word around the street is LSU's current player Ayanna Mitchell will look elsewhere at the end of the season as a grad transfer...

Its not even close to the same program it once was under Pokey Chatman, we just don't have the talent. I remember a couple years ago when Geno came to BR to play LSU, he even made the same comment in his press conference after the game.

I did find the DeMoss situation odd. Other than the fact that she turned up at Vanderbilt after Peck's departure (another quasi-basket case of a SEC program, by the way), was there a sense of what went wrong for her at LSU?

All eyes will be on LSU tonight, as their game vs. Southestern Louisiana (starting now on SEC Network Plus) is the only one on slate today.

 

[SECbbfan24]

I did find the DeMoss situation odd. Other than the fact that she turned up at Vanderbilt after Peck's departure (another quasi-basket case of a SEC program, by the way), was there a sense of what went wrong for her at LSU?

All eyes will be on LSU tonight, as their game vs. Southestern Louisiana (starting now on SEC Network Plus) is the only one on slate today.

Demoss and Nikki did not get along.

And speaking of the Southeastern game, its an exciting 20-17 lead for the tigers after one. This should easily be a 40+ point win.... SE is bad.