Team Net Result

[jibsey]

So we had a lot of players transfer and we have had some significant talent sign on. Can someone here tell me (educated guess) if we exclude the seniors who didn’t come back are we in much better shape than we would have been had Diggins, Gaffney and Floyd and Akok stayed? Because Floyd never played I have no idea how good he was going to likely be. Same for Diggins really although his limited minutes were less than good. So Castle does not come on board this season the sentiment here appears to be that we are still much better?

 

[FLDawg16]

Yes. ESPECIALLY if you're excluding Cole and Martin from the equation.

 

[navery12]

We're on track for it to be a net improvement. As long as we add the one more rotation guard that seems to be the target it'll be a net improvement over what we lost

 

[aburks41]

We're on track for it to be a net improvement. As long as we add the one more rotation guard that seems to be the target it'll be a net improvement over what we lost

The complete philosophy change on roster construction is probably even more important than the net gain of guys we lost/brought in too. We brought in good talent with a better, revamped modern roster construction in mind. Everyone on the roster should be put in a position to thrive with their skill sets now, which was definitely not the case last season.

 

[auror]

So we had a lot of players transfer and we have had some significant talent sign on. Can someone here tell me (educated guess) if we exclude the seniors who didn’t come back are we in much better shape than we would have been had Diggins, Gaffney and Floyd and Akok stayed? Because Floyd never played I have no idea how good he was going to likely be. Same for Diggins really although his limited minutes were less than good. So Castle does not come on board this season the sentiment here appears to be that we are still much better?

We still need to add depth, but in the net from the transfer portal our talent level should have increased for this upcoming season.

Newton was an all-conference level player in the AAC last year and would have been a strong contender (alongside Tulane's Jalen Cook) for pre-season player of the year this year once Davis transferred out. None of Diggins, Gaffney, Floyd, or Akok seem to have that kind of realistic expectation as "best player in a good league" for this upcoming year. I don't expect him to win player of the year in the Big East this season, but I do expect him to be an above average PG in the Big East and be in the conversation for all-league teams. He's also bigger and longer than any of the 3 guards that left, so our team defense should also be better and more switchable (and perhaps less reliant on the hedge?)

Alleyne was a 3 year high major starter for a team that improved every year in the ACC and finished above us in KenPom last year. Last year was his worst shooting year, and he still hit 37% from 3 on nearly 5 attempts a game. He can stroke it from the arc and is likely a better shooter than any of the 3 guards that left. The guys below him in VT's depth chart played really well and he had a frustrating slump in the middle of last year that led to him ceding more minutes and possibly not starting this year, which is why he transferred. I liked other guys a little better than him, but he's very experienced, fills a big shooting need, and obviously has that Castle connection, which should help solidify that recruitment (and hopefully help the reclass calculus).

We have not replaced any of Akok's projected production, but likely that is all going to come from our young forwards Johnson and Karaban. We haven't seen either play yet, but coaching staff seems to think this will be fine as they have not sought out any replacements.

 

[BlueMAB]

The talent went up, the depth disappeared.

 

[BigEastCT]

One injury away from being bad is my concern

 

[ctchamps]

We're on track for it to be a net improvement. As long as we add the one more rotation guard that seems to be the target it'll be a net improvement over what we lost

The complete philosophy change on roster construction is probably even more important than the net gain of guys we lost/brought in too. We brought in good talent with a better, revamped modern roster construction in mind. Everyone on the roster should be put in a position to thrive with their skill sets now, which was definitely not the case last season.

We still need to add depth, but in the net from the transfer portal our talent level should have increased for this upcoming season.

Newton was an all-conference level player in the AAC last year and would have been a strong contender (alongside Tulane's Jalen Cook) for pre-season player of the year this year once Davis transferred out. None of Diggins, Gaffney, Floyd, or Akok seem to have that kind of realistic expectation as "best player in a good league" for this upcoming year. I don't expect him to win player of the year in the Big East this season, but I do expect him to be an above average PG in the Big East and be in the conversation for all-league teams. He's also bigger and longer than any of the 3 guards that left, so our team defense should also be better and more switchable (and perhaps less reliant on the hedge?)

Alleyne was a 3 year high major starter for a team that improved every year in the ACC and finished above us in KenPom last year. Last year was his worst shooting year, and he still hit 37% from 3 on nearly 5 attempts a game. He can stroke it from the arc and is likely a better shooter than any of the 3 guards that left. The guys below him in VT's depth chart played really well and he had a frustrating slump in the middle of last year that led to him ceding more minutes and possibly not starting this year, which is why he transferred. I liked other guys a little better than him, but he's very experienced, fills a big shooting need, and obviously has that Castle connection, which should help solidify that recruitment (and hopefully help the reclass calculus).

We have not replaced any of Akok's projected production, but likely that is all going to come from our young forwards Johnson and Karaban. We haven't seen either play yet, but coaching staff seems to think this will be fine as they have not sought out any replacements.

Terrific review and analysis. Really appreciate the effort you all put in to help us get a handle on the team. I had wanted to ask why Alleyne transferred. Saw in the original thread about younger players played better but that thread became cluttered. Thanks.

 

[aburks41]

One injury away from being bad is my concern

That's the new reality though. You cannot convince 11+ guys of Big East caliber talent to share minutes anymore - the guys at the end of the bench will transfer and be starters somewhere else. Every high major program is constrained the exact same way now. You fill a rotation with 9 or 10 dudes, and the rest of the roster is filled out with projects. And then you pray that the injury gods don't screw you.

 

[8893]

One injury away from being bad is my concern

 

[BGesus4]

Net positive is going to be dependent on Hawkins’s and Jackson’s offseasons. We lost very little production from transfers but in Cole and Martin we lost two players that could and did win games for us. If Newton is a gamebreaker and Jackson and Hawkins make good progress in the areas they’re working on them we’ll be in good shape. At this point, though, it’s tough to definitively say Newton and Alleyne will be better than Cole and Martin.

 

[Tenspro2002]

We just need one additional guard -- either a Castle re-class or a transfer -- who's willing to come off the bench for 15-20 mpg and we're pretty much good.

Our roster was way too frontcourt-heavy last year, which Hurley acknowledges, and our guard production looks to be much more reliable.

Newton (30), Backup G (10)
Hawkins (30), Backup G (10)
Alleyne (20), Jackson (10), Karaban (10)
Jackson (20), Karaban (10), Johnson (10)
Sanogo (30), Clingan (10)

Something like that. That's 4 30-mpg stalwarts, 3 solid rotation players at 20 mpg, and 2 developmental bigs at 10 mpg.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Until the team is filled out and the best combination is found it’s a ?

 

[Palatine]

Jackson is more likely to play close to 30 MPG than Hawkins.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Just to illustrate the minutes situation, in the Villanova win, 5 starters all played 28-36 minutes, bench players played 20 minutes (Polley), 13 minutes (Hawkins), and 5 minutes (Gaffney).

In the big games, our 4-5 best players will be close to 30-35 minutes, and we'll have 2-3 bench guys around 20 mpg, with maybe spot minutes for 1-2 others.

 

[John]

I just can't believe we're looking at dealing with this every year from here on out. Guess it's the nature of the college bb beast now.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I just can't believe we're looking at dealing with this every year from here on out. Guess it's the nature of the college bb beast now.

Honestly, if all we do is lose 3-4 of the projected 6-12 guys on the roster, while bringing in starting-level talent, we're making out OK.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I have a strong suspicion that we will see a major leap forward from Hawkins this upcoming season.

 

[bendm]

i just wish people could wait to ask this until hurley fills at least 1 or 2 of the 4 open schollys. otherwise we're trying to compare last year's roster of 13 players with next year's roster of 9 players....

 

[Billy Bob]

Net positive is going to be dependent on Hawkins’s and Jackson’s offseasons. We lost very little production from transfers but in Cole and Martin we lost two players that could and did win games for us. If Newton is a gamebreaker and Jackson and Hawkins make good progress in the areas they’re working on them we’ll be in good shape. At this point, though, it’s tough to definitively say Newton and Alleyne will be better than Cole and Martin.

How often do you see players drastically improve from one season to the next? Maybe a little fine tuning here and there, but they are what they are for the most part. The one example I can think of that I had written about here before was Hilton Armstrong who made a huge jump from his junior to senior year. And as I always mention, I sat next to Hilton Armstrong Sr. at a tournament in Duluth, GA and we talked for a few hours. He told me that his son never touched a basketball in the summer between his freshman-sophomore and sophomore-junior years. His father said he hung out with his girlfriend and played video games all summer, And then magically he busted his butt after his junior year and wham, it's NBA time for him

 

[BlueMAB]

It's strange that someone can remember a conversation with Hilton Armstrong Sr. 15+/- years ago, but can't remember what Andre Jackson looked like as a freshman compared to last year.

 

[shizzle787]

As of right now, we are probably worse. We were the #17 ranked team going into the NCAA tournament according to the committee. I do not think we are there right now. We need another stud guard. Everyone talking about only have nine players is missing the point: three of the final four players we bring in won't play much.

 

[navery12]

As of right now, we are probably worse. We were the #17 ranked team going into the NCAA tournament according to the committee. I do not think we are there right now. We need another stud guard. Everyone talking about only have nine players is missing the point: three of the final four players we bring in won't play much.

That wasn't the question...

 

[Skies17]

I would say slight improvement: Gains from roster construction/more balanced skills will make up for departures.

Last season we started: CG, SF, SF, C, C with a SF 6th man. When you look at it that way it's easy to see why we were deficient in shot creation/shooting but masked our offensive struggles by pounding the glass.

Next season I expect we will run with CG, SG, SF, Stretch4, C or maybe even a more modern CG, SG, SG, SF, C lineup.

I tend to think we will see the first lineup more, and to that end putting any 3 of Newton, Alleyne, Hawkins, Jackson, (Backup PG) along with Samson/Karaban and Sanogo/Clingan provides a more coherent offensive and defensive group, especially perimeter defense, shot creation, and overall shooting ability. It will certainly be a different look compared to last year, but I expect roughly the same offensive rating (better set offense, worse second chance offense) and slightly better defense than last year = overall better team.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I would say slight improvement: Gains from roster construction/more balanced skills will make up for departures.

Last season we started: CG, SF, SF, C, C with a SF 6th man. When you look at it that way it's easy to see why we were deficient in shot creation/shooting but masked our offensive struggles by pounding the glass.

Next season I expect we will run with CG, SG, SF, Stretch4, C or maybe even a more modern CG, SG, SG, SF, C lineup.

I tend to think we will see the first lineup more, and to that end putting any 3 of Newton, Alleyne, Hawkins, Jackson, (Backup PG) along with Samson/Karaban and Sanogo/Clingan provides a more coherent offensive and defensive group, especially perimeter defense, shot creation, and overall shooting ability. It will certainly be a different look compared to last year, but I expect roughly the same offensive rating (better set offense, worse second chance offense) and slightly better defense than last year = overall better team.

I agree offense will be better, but I think defense will be down; losing Cole, Whaley, and Martin is a bit of a task to replace defensively (even with hoped for defensive improvements from Ajax and Hawkins).

 

[willie99]

The transfer portal is a net positive already, and I still expect one more productive landing

 

[Skies17]

I agree offense will be better, but I think defense will be down; losing Cole, Whaley, and Martin is a bit of a task to replace defensively (even with hoped for defensive improvements from Ajax and Hawkins).

I've gone back and forth but I'm leaning towards better defense and here's why.

Cole, Whaley, and Martin were all good defenders but Cole was a size mismatch issue, Martin was slow laterally and I think the wrist injury hurt his defense, and Whaley took a step back defensively from his BE DPOY play the year before (maybe because he was out of position at the 4, but even inside he was foul prone and biting on a lot of shot fakes).

Newton and Alleyne at 6'5" and 6'4" should be capable defenders in Hurley's scheme and along with Hawkins/Jackson I think they can switch on almost everything and not have matchup issues. My hope is better perimeter defense, my concern is rebounding.

I think the wildcards are:
1. How well do Samson and Karaban defend at the 4 when they play
2. Do we stick with hard hedge, or does Hurley adapt the scheme to his personnel
3. If Jackson plays the 4, will he still defend the best opposing G/W and will we have enough rebounding on the floor

Kenpom had us at 43rd in Defense last year (29th the year before). We have good defenders on the roster and unlike last year we should be able to utilize those defenders more coherently, therefore I expect Hurley will find a way to improve the team defense even when losing 3 good defenders from last year.

 

[Umami Zen]

Roster construction is still an unfinished work in progress.. The quality upgrades thru TN/NA over the departing portal guys is significant. No reason to believe that that trend won't continue with more upgrades added in an intentional and thoughtful way.

Once portal closes down on Sunday--I would expect to see an uptick in on campus visits with targets. This staff moves in an efficient and quiet way up/until most on campus visits. Doesn't mean they don't have a sense of urgency.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I've gone back and forth but I'm leaning towards better defense and here's why.

Cole, Whaley, and Martin were all good defenders but Cole was a size mismatch issue, Martin was slow laterally and I think the wrist injury hurt his defense, and Whaley took a step back defensively from his BE DPOY play the year before (maybe because he was out of position at the 4, but even inside he was foul prone and biting on a lot of shot fakes).

Newton and Alleyne at 6'5" and 6'4" should be capable defenders in Hurley's scheme and along with Hawkins/Jackson I think they can switch on almost everything and not have matchup issues. My hope is better perimeter defense, my concern is rebounding.

I think the wildcards are:
1. How well do Samson and Karaban defend at the 4 when they play
2. Do we stick with hard hedge, or does Hurley adapt the scheme to his personnel
3. If Jackson plays the 4, will he still defend the best opposing G/W and will we have enough rebounding on the floor

Kenpom had us at 43rd in Defense last year (29th the year before). We have good defenders on the roster and unlike last year we should be able to utilize those defenders more coherently, therefore I expect Hurley will find a way to improve the team defense even when losing 3 good defenders from last year.

I hear what you're saying - and it's well thought out. I am just currently concerned that we don't have a lock down 6'7"+ defender (I don't think Sanogo is that yet and I don't think we can count on Johnson or Clingan being that yet). I hear ya on rebounding - our 6'4"- 6'5" guards/wings are going to have to work hard on the boards for sure (led by AJax, of course).

Without looking at the data, I think Cole, Martin, and Whaley even though flawed in some ways still worked well as a whole. I don't know how Newton and Alleyne can translate to the BE in terns of defense (fingers crossed). I do hope we don't high hedge as much overall as we did last year but certainly will depend on matchups.

Still holding hope we can bring in another "+" defender.