I agree offense will be better, but I think defense will be down; losing Cole, Whaley, and Martin is a bit of a task to replace defensively (even with hoped for defensive improvements from Ajax and Hawkins).
I've gone back and forth but I'm leaning towards better defense and here's why.
Cole, Whaley, and Martin were all good defenders but Cole was a size mismatch issue, Martin was slow laterally and I think the wrist injury hurt his defense, and Whaley took a step back defensively from his BE DPOY play the year before (maybe because he was out of position at the 4, but even inside he was foul prone and biting on a lot of shot fakes).
Newton and Alleyne at 6'5" and 6'4" should be capable defenders in Hurley's scheme and along with Hawkins/Jackson I think they can switch on almost everything and not have matchup issues. My hope is better perimeter defense, my concern is rebounding.
I think the wildcards are:
1. How well do Samson and Karaban defend at the 4 when they play
2. Do we stick with hard hedge, or does Hurley adapt the scheme to his personnel
3. If Jackson plays the 4, will he still defend the best opposing G/W and will we have enough rebounding on the floor
Kenpom had us at 43rd in Defense last year (29th the year before). We have good defenders on the roster and unlike last year we should be able to utilize those defenders more coherently, therefore I expect Hurley will find a way to improve the team defense even when losing 3 good defenders from last year.